What's At Stake In Week 9

[KidSilverhair]

I'm still decompressing from the Xavier-Regina game last night. Wow, what a tremendous contest - almost like the teams swapped jerseys at halftime or something. And even with all that, as a nondistrict game, it had no impact on playoff possibilities.

Well, that's what I'm here for. Let's take a look at who still has a chance and what's set in stone as we head for the final week of the 2015 season. I think I've covered most everything, but there is no warranty here either express or implied. Please, no wagering.

DISTRICT 1

Playoff teams are set: Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Sioux City Heelan, Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley, and Spencer.
Sergeant Bluff-Luton has won the district title.
Heelan gets second with a win over LeMars, or if they lose by 8 points or fewer.
BHRV can get second with a win by 9 or more over Denison-Schleswig plus a Heelan loss by 9 or more and a Spencer win.
Spencer can get third with a win over SBL plus a win by Heelan and a loss by BHRV.
​

DISTRICT 2

Webster City has won the district title.
Carroll will finish second.
Two teams from Humboldt/Greene County/Algona/Boone will make the playoffs. If any two of them lose Friday, the other two are in. Algona has finished their district schedule at 3-3; they win a tiebreaker with either Greene County or Humboldt, but lose a tiebreaker to Boone.
Humboldt is likely to win Friday, facing Perry, which would give them a 3-3 finish. Boone plays Webster City and Greene County plays Carroll, so wins by either of them would be upsets. So the most probable outcome is Algona 3rd and Humboldt 4th.
A four-way tie for 3rd through 6th is theoretically possible; that would come down to the points tiebreaker, and they're all within reach of each other.
​

DISTRICT 3

West Delaware has won the district.
Independence will finish second.
Decorah will finish third.
Waverly-Shell Rock has fourth locked up. Even if they lose to Charles City, there will be a three-way tie with the winner of Vinton-Shellsburg at Crestwood; W-SR has the points tiebreaker for that scenario.
​

DISTRICT 4

Xavier wins the district.
Maquoketa is second.
The winner of the Solon at Dubuque Wahlert game finishes third, the loser is fourth.
​

DISTRICT 5

The Washington at Davenport Assumption game is for first and second.
The Fairfield at Clear Creek-Amana game is for third and fourth.
​

DISTRICT 6

Gilbert has won the district title.
Ballard will place second.
Bondurant-Farrar will finish third.
Benton Community will finish fourth. Despite the possibility of Ballard/B-F/Benton all finishing 4-2, I don't think there's any tiebreaker scenario that would have a different outcome. Unless I missed something.
​

DISTRICT 7

Pella has won the district.
Norwalk has second place.
Carlisle is in the playoffs, and takes third with a win over Oskaloosa.
Chariton takes fourth with wins by Carlisle and Norwalk.
An Oskaloosa win ties them with Carlisle at 3-3. Chariton could finish 3-3 with a win over Pella, and Knoxville could finish 3-3 with a win over Norwalk.

CARLISLE/OSKY TIE: Osky would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker and get 3rd.
CARLISLE/OSKY/KNOXVILLE TIE: Goes to points. Carlisle gets 3rd, Knoxville 4th, Osky out.
CARLISLE/OSKY/CHARITON TIE: Osky takes 3rd having beaten both Carlisle and Chariton. Carlisle takes 4th having defeated Chariton.
CARLISLE/OSKY/KNOXVILLE/CHARITON TIE: Goes to points. Knoxville and Osky would be out. Chariton could take 3rd if they win by six more points than Carlisle loses by.​

DISTRICT 8

Dallas Center-Grimes is in the playoffs and wins the district with a win over Glenwood.
Harlan is the playoffs and takes second with a win by Dallas Center-Grimes. They have a chance to win the district if they defeat ADM and Glenwood beats DC-G, depending on the point spreads.
Glenwood is in the playoffs and can win the district with a victory and a Harlan loss, or if they win by 10 and Harlan defeats ADM by less than 3.
Creston will finish fourth, holding all the tiebreakers over Winterset and ADM.
​

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

Kid, tell me if I have this right. For point differential on a three-way tie...It's all district games and a 35 point ceiling right? So once you lose by 35 it's just 35 points even if you lose by 40. Or is it point differential between the three teams that tied counting only the games they played against each other?

 

[HappyJac]

13 points is max gain or loss.

 

[KidSilverhair]

13 points is max gain or loss.

Yup. Scoring margin up to +/- 13 points, in district games only, is tallied up and then divided by number of district games. That's the 11.80/0.40/-2.33 number you see in the standings posted by the IAHSAA.

District standings go by fewest district losses first; any ties that can be broken by head-to-head are unraveled that way; then if each team lost to another team in a tie of 3 or more teams, you go to the points. If you're still tied then, with identical points, it's off to the alphabet, where reverse alphabetical order is used this year (for tie breaking purposes - for determining home field in playoffs, it's regular alphabetical order for 2015).

 

[KidSilverhair]

Let's go a little more in-depth. Following are the spots that are locked up, regardless of what happens Friday, and what needs to happen to fill in the rest.

DISTRICT 1

1. Sergeant Bluff-Luton
2. Sioux City Heelan
3. BHRV or Spencer
4. Spencer or BHRV

Heelan could tie SBL at 5-1, but SBL has the head-to-head.
If Spencer beats SBL and BHRV loses to Denison-Schleswig, Spencer takes third over BHRV.
Any other outcome (Spencer and BHRV tie at 4-2 or 3-3; Heelan, BHRV and Spencer tie at 4-2; Heelan and BHRV tie at 4-2 and Spencer finishes 3-3) ends up Heelan-BHRV-Spencer due to head-to-head.
​

DISTRICT 2

1. Webster City
2. Carroll
3.
4.

Carroll could tie Webster City at 5-1, but Webster City has the head-to-head.
Algona has finished at 3-3. Humboldt, Greene County and Boone all have the opportunity to be 3-3 or 2-4.
HUMBOLDT, GREENE CO., BOONE WIN:

Four-way tie with Algona, goes to points. Algona eliminated, too far back in points. Boone has to beat Webster City by 5 points or more to even have a chance. If Greene County beats Carroll by at least 9 and Humboldt beats Perry by 10 or more, that also eliminates Boone.​

HUMBOLDT, GREENE CO. WIN, BOONE LOSES

Three-way tie Algona/Humboldt/Greene Co. Algona has defeated both and takes third. Humboldt has the head-to-head over Greene County.​

HUMBOLDT WINS, GREENE CO. AND BOONE LOSE

The most likely scenario. Algona takes 3rd with head-to-head over Humboldt.​

HUMBOLDT WINS, GREENE CO. LOSES, BOONE WINS

Three-way tie Algona/Humboldt/Boone, goes to points. Algona eliminated, too many points behind. A Humboldt win by at least 10 guarantees them 3rd.​

HUMBOLDT LOSES, GREENE CO. AND BOONE WIN

Three-way tie Algona/Greene County/Boone, goes to points. Algona is too far back, eliminated. A Greene County win by 9 or more guarantees them 3rd.​

HUMBOLDT AND GREENE CO. LOSE, BOONE WINS

Boone takes 3rd with head-to-head over Algona, who takes 4th.​

HUMBOLDT LOSES, GREENE CO. WINS, BOONE LOSES

Algona takes 3rd by head-to-head over Greene County.​

HUMBOLDT, GREENE CO., BOONE ALL LOSE

Algona is third at 3-3. Three-way tie at 2-4; Humboldt gets the fourth spot with head-to-head over both Greene County and Boone.
​

DISTRICT 3

1. West Delaware
2. Independence
3. Decorah
4. Waverly-Shell Rock

West Delaware holds the head-to-head over Independence for a possible tie at 5-1.
A Decorah loss and Waverly-Shell Rock win means a tie at 3-3, but Decorah has that head-to-head.
A Waverly-Shell Rock loss to Charles City puts those two in a three-way tie with the Crestwood-Vinton Shellsburg winner at 2-4, but there's no possible way any of those teams can catch Waverly-Shell Rock in point differential.
​

DISTRICT 4

1. Xavier
2. Maquoketa
3. Solon or Dubuque Wahlert
4. Dubuque Wahlert or Solon

Xavier has the head-to-head over Maquoketa for a possible tie at 5-1.
The winner of the Solon-Wahlert game Friday gets 3rd, with the loser 4th.
​

DISTRICT 5

1. Davenport Assumption or Washington
2. Washington or Davenport Assumption
3. Clear Creek-Amana or Fairfield
4. Fairfield or Clear Creek-Amana

The Washington-Assumption game decides first and second; the Fairfield-Clear Creek Amana game decides third and fourth.
​

DISTRICT 6

1. Gilbert
2. Ballard
3. Bondurant-Farrar
4. Benton Community

If Gilbert beats Benton and Grinnell beats Ballard, Ballard and Bondurant-Farrar tie at 4-2 with Ballard having the tiebreaker; Benton and Grinnell tie at 3-3 with Benton having the tiebreaker.
If Gilbert beats Benton and Ballard defeats Grinnell, it's Gilbert 6-0, Ballard 5-1, Bondurant-Farrar 4-2, Benton 3-3.
If Benton beats Gilbert and Ballard beats Grinnell, Gilbert and Ballard tie at 5-1 with Gilbert owning the tiebreaker; and Bondurant-Farrar tied with Benton at 4-2 with Bondurant holding head-to-head.
If Benton and Grinnell both win, it's a three-way tie at 4-2 between Ballard, Bondurant and Benton. Ballard has defeated both, while Bondurant has defeated Benton.

In other words, nothing will make the top four look different than what's listed above.
​

DISTRICT 7

1. Pella
2. Norwalk
3.
4.

Pella holds the head-to-head over Norwalk if they each finish 5-1.
There are still some different possibilities for the last two qualifiers here.
CARLISLE OVER OSKY; NORWALK OVER KNOXVILLE; PELLA OVER CHARITON

The most likely. Carlisle third at 4-2. Three-way tie at 2-4 between Chariton, Knoxville and Oskaloosa, goes to points. Chariton gets 4th.​

CARLISLE OVER OSKY; NORWALK OVER KNOXVILLE; CHARITON UPSETS PELLA

Carlisle third at 4-2, Chariton fourth at 3-3​

CARLISLE OVER OSKY; KNOXVILLE UPSETS NORWALK; PELLA OVER CHARITON

Norwalk 4-2 holds tiebreaker for second over Carlisle 4-2, Knoxville fourth at 3-3​

CARLISLE OVER OSKY; KNOXVILLE AND CHARITON BEAT NORWALK AND PELLA

Norwalk 4-2 with tiebreaker for second over Carlisle 4-2, Chariton 3-3 with tiebreaker for third over Knoxville​

OSKY OVER CARLISLE; NORWALK OVER KNOXVILLE; PELLA OVER CHARITON

Oskaloosa takes third at 3-3 holding tiebreaker over Carlisle​

OSKY OVER CARLISLE; NORWALK OVER KNOXVILLE; CHARITON UPSETS PELLA

Three-way tie at 3-3 (Carlisle, Oskaloosa, Chariton). Oskaloosa has beaten both, takes third. Carlisle gets fourth with head-to-head over Chariton.​

OSKY OVER CARLISLE; KNOXVILLE UPSETS NORWALK; PELLA OVER CHARITON

Three-way tie Oskaloosa/Carlisle/Knoxville, goes to points. Carlisle would take third and Knoxville fourth.​

OSKY, KNOXVILLE, CHARITON ALL UPSET CARLISLE, NORWALK, PELLA

Dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria. A four-way tie at 3-3 (Oskaloosa, Carlisle, Knoxville, Chariton), goes to points. Carlisle gets third, Chariton fourth.
​

DISTRICT 8

1.
2.
3.
4. Creston

If Dallas Center-Grimes beats Glenwood, they win the district outright and Harlan takes second win or lose, with Glenwood third.
If Glenwood beats Dallas Center-Grimes and Harlan is upset by ADM, Glenwood takes the title with the tiebreaker over DCG and Harlan is third.
If Glenwood and Harlan both win, there's a three-way tie at 5-1 that goes to points. If Harlan beats ADM by 12, they'll be assured first place; if they win by 8, they'll have enough to top Glenwood for at least second. If Glenwood wins by 10, that would be enough to get them above DCG for at least second. So, yeah, if Glenwood beats DCG by 10 and Harlan wins by 8 or more over ADM - Dallas Center-Grimes could still end up third.

Creston could end up in a tie at 2-4 with ADM and/or Winterset, but have beaten them both.​

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

13 points is max gain or loss.

Really? Only 13 points? That is ridiculously low, I thought it was way higher! Thanks for the info!

 

[PNation]

Technically it is 26 +13 and -13 but yes.

 

[PNation]

I would guess matchups as followed

1v4

SBL vs. Spencer (Only team SBL can play of the 4's)
Webster City vs. WSR
West Delaware vs. Benton
Xavier vs. CCA
Assumption vs. Wahlert ( I know that this was a non-district match up but makes more sense to send Wahlert here than Benton)
Gilbert vs. Humboldt
Pella vs. Creston
DCG vs. Chariton

2v3

Heelan vs. BHRV
Carroll vs. Glenwood
Ballard vs. Algona
Maquoketa vs. Decorah (125.2 miles)
Indee vs. Solon
Norwalk vs. Fairfield
Washington vs. Boundarant Farrar
Harlan vs. Carlisle

 

[KidSilverhair]

Really? Only 13 points? That is ridiculously low, I thought it was way higher! Thanks for the info!

Well, you don't want to encourage running up the score. I suppose that's why they chose 13 - that seems to be enough to provide some separation between teams (it's pretty rare to have a tie with that tiebreaker, although I believe it has happened in the past and they had to go to the alphabet).

 

[FLBP]

I would guess matchups as followed

1v4

SBL vs. Spencer (Only team SBL can play of the 4's)
Webster City vs. WSR
West Delaware vs. Benton
Xavier vs. CCA
Assumption vs. Wahlert ( I know that this was a non-district match up but makes more sense to send Wahlert here than Benton)
Gilbert vs. Humboldt
Pella vs. Creston
DCG vs. Chariton

2v3

Heelan vs. BHRV
Carroll vs. Glenwood
Ballard vs. Algona
Maquoketa vs. Decorah (125.2 miles)
Indee vs. Solon
Norwalk vs. Fairfield
Washington vs. Boundarant Farrar
Harlan vs. Carlisle

I would love to see these brackets play out just because of the Pella/ Creston matchup.

 

[DogBoyRy]

Let's go a little more in-depth. Following are the spots that are locked up, regardless of what happens Friday, and what needs to happen to fill in the rest.

DISTRICT 1

1. Sergeant Bluff-Luton
2. Sioux City Heelan
3. BHRV or Spencer
4. Spencer or BHRV

Heelan could tie SBL at 5-1, but SBL has the head-to-head.
If Spencer beats SBL and BHRV loses to Denison-Schleswig, Spencer takes third over BHRV.
Any other outcome (Spencer and BHRV tie at 4-2 or 3-3; Heelan, BHRV and Spencer tie at 4-2; Heelan and BHRV tie at 4-2 and Spencer finishes 3-3) ends up Heelan-BHRV-Spencer due to head-to-head.
​

DISTRICT 2

1. Webster City
2. Carroll
3.
4.

Carroll could tie Webster City at 5-1, but Webster City has the head-to-head.
Algona has finished at 3-3. Humboldt, Greene County and Boone all have the opportunity to be 3-3 or 2-4.
HUMBOLDT, GREENE CO., BOONE WIN:

Four-way tie with Algona, goes to points. Algona eliminated, too far back in points. Boone has to beat Webster City by 5 points or more to even have a chance. If Greene County beats Carroll by at least 9 and Humboldt beats Perry by 10 or more, that also eliminates Boone.​

HUMBOLDT, GREENE CO. WIN, BOONE LOSES

Three-way tie Algona/Humboldt/Greene Co. Algona has defeated both and takes third. Humboldt has the head-to-head over Greene County.​

HUMBOLDT WINS, GREENE CO. AND BOONE LOSE

The most likely scenario. Algona takes 3rd with head-to-head over Humboldt.​

HUMBOLDT WINS, GREENE CO. LOSES, BOONE WINS

Three-way tie Algona/Humboldt/Boone, goes to points. Algona eliminated, too many points behind. A Humboldt win by at least 10 guarantees them 3rd.​

HUMBOLDT LOSES, GREENE CO. AND BOONE WIN

Three-way tie Algona/Greene County/Boone, goes to points. Algona is too far back, eliminated. A Greene County win by 9 or more guarantees them 3rd.​

HUMBOLDT AND GREENE CO. LOSE, BOONE WINS

Boone takes 3rd with head-to-head over Algona, who takes 4th.​

HUMBOLDT LOSES, GREENE CO. WINS, BOONE LOSES

Algona takes 3rd by head-to-head over Greene County.​

HUMBOLDT, GREENE CO., BOONE ALL LOSE

Algona is third at 3-3. Three-way tie at 2-4; Humboldt gets the fourth spot with head-to-head over both Greene County and Boone.
​

DISTRICT 3

1. West Delaware
2. Independence
3. Decorah
4. Waverly-Shell Rock

West Delaware holds the head-to-head over Independence for a possible tie at 5-1.
A Decorah loss and Waverly-Shell Rock win means a tie at 3-3, but Decorah has that head-to-head.
A Waverly-Shell Rock loss to Charles City puts those two in a three-way tie with the Crestwood-Vinton Shellsburg winner at 2-4, but there's no possible way any of those teams can catch Waverly-Shell Rock in point differential.
​

DISTRICT 4

1. Xavier
2. Maquoketa
3. Solon or Dubuque Wahlert
4. Dubuque Wahlert or Solon

Xavier has the head-to-head over Maquoketa for a possible tie at 5-1.
The winner of the Solon-Wahlert game Friday gets 3rd, with the loser 4th.
​

DISTRICT 5

1. Davenport Assumption or Washington
2. Washington or Davenport Assumption
3. Clear Creek-Amana or Fairfield
4. Fairfield or Clear Creek-Amana

The Washington-Assumption game decides first and second; the Fairfield-Clear Creek Amana game decides third and fourth.
​

DISTRICT 6

1. Gilbert
2. Ballard
3. Bondurant-Farrar
4. Benton Community

If Gilbert beats Benton and Grinnell beats Ballard, Ballard and Bondurant-Farrar tie at 4-2 with Ballard having the tiebreaker; Benton and Grinnell tie at 3-3 with Benton having the tiebreaker.
If Gilbert beats Benton and Ballard defeats Grinnell, it's Gilbert 6-0, Ballard 5-1, Bondurant-Farrar 4-2, Benton 3-3.
If Benton beats Gilbert and Ballard beats Grinnell, Gilbert and Ballard tie at 5-1 with Gilbert owning the tiebreaker; and Bondurant-Farrar tied with Benton at 4-2 with Bondurant holding head-to-head.
If Benton and Grinnell both win, it's a three-way tie at 4-2 between Ballard, Bondurant and Benton. Ballard has defeated both, while Bondurant has defeated Benton.

In other words, nothing will make the top four look different than what's listed above.
​

DISTRICT 7

1. Pella
2. Norwalk
3.
4.

Pella holds the head-to-head over Norwalk if they each finish 5-1.
There are still some different possibilities for the last two qualifiers here.
CARLISLE OVER OSKY; NORWALK OVER KNOXVILLE; PELLA OVER CHARITON

The most likely. Carlisle third at 4-2. Three-way tie at 2-4 between Chariton, Knoxville and Oskaloosa, goes to points. Chariton gets 4th.​

CARLISLE OVER OSKY; NORWALK OVER KNOXVILLE; CHARITON UPSETS PELLA

Carlisle third at 4-2, Chariton fourth at 3-3​

CARLISLE OVER OSKY; KNOXVILLE UPSETS NORWALK; PELLA OVER CHARITON

Norwalk 4-2 holds tiebreaker for second over Carlisle 4-2, Knoxville fourth at 3-3​

CARLISLE OVER OSKY; KNOXVILLE AND CHARITON BEAT NORWALK AND PELLA

Norwalk 4-2 with tiebreaker for second over Carlisle 4-2, Chariton 3-3 with tiebreaker for third over Knoxville​

OSKY OVER CARLISLE; NORWALK OVER KNOXVILLE; PELLA OVER CHARITON

Oskaloosa takes third at 3-3 holding tiebreaker over Carlisle​

OSKY OVER CARLISLE; NORWALK OVER KNOXVILLE; CHARITON UPSETS PELLA

Three-way tie at 3-3 (Carlisle, Oskaloosa, Chariton). Oskaloosa has beaten both, takes third. Carlisle gets fourth with head-to-head over Chariton.​

OSKY OVER CARLISLE; KNOXVILLE UPSETS NORWALK; PELLA OVER CHARITON

Three-way tie Oskaloosa/Carlisle/Knoxville, goes to points. Carlisle would take third and Knoxville fourth.​

OSKY, KNOXVILLE, CHARITON ALL UPSET CARLISLE, NORWALK, PELLA

Dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria. A four-way tie at 3-3 (Oskaloosa, Carlisle, Knoxville, Chariton), goes to points. Carlisle gets third, Chariton fourth.
​

DISTRICT 8

1.
2.
3.
4. Creston

If Dallas Center-Grimes beats Glenwood, they win the district outright and Harlan takes second win or lose, with Glenwood third.
If Glenwood beats Dallas Center-Grimes and Harlan is upset by ADM, Glenwood takes the title with the tiebreaker over DCG and Harlan is third.
If Glenwood and Harlan both win, there's a three-way tie at 5-1 that goes to points. If Harlan beats ADM by 12, they'll be assured first place; if they win by 8, they'll have enough to top Glenwood for at least second. If Glenwood wins by 10, that would be enough to get them above DCG for at least second. So, yeah, if Glenwood beats DCG by 10 and Harlan wins by 8 or more over ADM - Dallas Center-Grimes could still end up third.

Creston could end up in a tie at 2-4 with ADM and/or Winterset, but have beaten them both.​

Gotta admit - didn't see D3 being that strong preseason.

 

[IOU1]

I really didn't see that coming out of D3 either...is there a scarier #4 seed than WSR out there?

 

[captain_sparrow]

I would love to see these brackets play out just because of the Pella/ Creston matchup.

Just curious, why do you say that?

 

[FLBP]

Just curious, why do you say that?

Captain I have my reason but feel I need to keep my mouth shut.