The Good Ol' Playoff Guesser Returns

[KidSilverhair]

I slapped this together pretty quickly, so there's probably some mistakes in there. I also held off a week later than usual, because it's way harder to look at possibility trees with 3 games left out of 5 district games than there used to be when it was 3 games left out of 7. Not to mention RPI ...

Anyway, here's a quick rundown of the district races with two weeks to go. I didn't do anything about trying to figure out at-large/RPI qualifiers, I just focused on who's looking good for district championships. Maybe next week I can throw in an RPI component and start to figure out what the playoff field might look like.

If you see anything screwed up or incorrect here, be gentle.


DISTRICT 1

Sergeant Bluff-Luton wins the district with a win.

Either Heelan or Spencer can with the district with two wins if Sergeant Bluff-Luton loses twice.

Storm Lake will be eliminated with a loss to Heelan.

LeMars is eliminated.

There is a wild scenario which could result in a five-way tie: Storm Lake defeats Sergeant Bluff-Luton and Heelan; Denison-Schleswig wins over Sergeant Bluff-Luton and LeMars; Spencer loses to Heelan but defeats LeMars. That's a five-way tie at 3-2 in the district, and five playoff qualifiers from District 1 alone. Yikes.



DISTRICT 2

Carroll wins the district with a win.

Boone can win the district by winning twice if Carroll loses twice.

Humboldt can win the district by winning twice, Carroll losing twice, and Boone losing once.

The loser of Webster City/Dallas Center-Grimes is eliminated. There are some scenarios where the winner might be involved in a tie.

Perry is eliminated.



DISTRICT 3

Either Independence or Decorah wins the district with two wins.

If Independence and Decorah both win this week, Week 9's game between the two decides the district title. An Independence win this week also eliminates Waverly-Shell Rock.

If Waverly Shell Rock wins twice and Independence beats Decorah, there will be a three-way tie.

West Delaware, Charles City, and Waterloo East are all eliminated.



DISTRICT 4

No matter what happens this week, if Xavier defeats Marion in Week 9 the Saints win the district.

Marion wins the district with two victories.

Western Dubuque wins the district with two wins and two Xavier losses.

If Western Dubuque wins twice and Xavier defeats CPU and loses to Marion, there will be a three-way tie.

Center Point Urbana, Maquoketa, and Dubuque Wahlert are eliminated.



DISTRICT 5

Clear Creek-Amana wins the district with a win.

North Scott wins the district with two wins.

If North Scott beats Clear Creek-Amana and loses to Davenport Assumption, while Assumption beats Iowa City Liberty and Clear Creek-Amana defeats Central DeWitt, there will be a three-way tie.

Central DeWitt, Iowa City Liberty, and Clinton are eliminated.



DISTRICT 6

Solon wins the district with a win plus a Fairfield loss this week, or if they defeat Fairfield Week 9.

Mount Pleasant wins the district with two wins plus two Solon losses; they can tie with two wins and two Fairfield wins.

Washington wins the district with two wins and two Solon losses.

Fairfield needs to win twice, have Solon lose to Keokuk and Mount Pleasant lose once. They can force a three-way tie with two wins, a Solon win over Keokuk, and two Mount Pleasant wins.

If Solon loses twice there's a variety of scenarios for ties involving Washington, Mount Pleasant, and Fairfield.

Fort Madison and Keokuk are eliminated.



DISTRICT 7

Oskaloosa wins the district with a win.

If Oskaloosa loses twice, either Pella or Newton can win the district with two wins.

If Oskaloosa loses twice, Pella beats Newton but loses to Grinnell, then Oskaloosa, Pella, Grinnell and the Newton-Knoxville winner all tie. If Newton beats Pella but loses to Knoxville, then Oskaloosa, Newton, Knoxville and the Pella-Grinnell winner all tie (both assuming Grinnell defeats South Tama).

South Tama is eliminated.



DISTRICT 8

Norwalk wins the district with a win.

Bondurant-Farrar wins with two wins and two Norwalk losses.

If Norwalk loses twice, several tie scenarios are in play involving the Ballard-North Polk winner, Gilbert if they defeat Bondurant-Farrar, and Carlisle if they win twice.



DISTRICT 9

Lewis Central wins the district with a win.

Either Harlan or Winterset can win the district with two wins and two Lewis Central losses.

If Lewis Central loses twice and Glenwood beats Creston, tie scenarios come into play including Winterset, Creston, and Harlan.

If Creston beats Glenwood, Lewis Central will win all possible tiebreakers.

 

[KidSilverhair]

A bit more context, for actual “playoff guessing” ...

Here are the likely/reasonable picks for district champions, along with their RPI rank:

D-1: Sergeant Bluff-Luton (RPI 1)
D-2: Carroll (RPI 32)
D-3: Decorah (RPI 10)
D-4: Xavier (RPI 4)
D-5: Clear Creek-Amana (RPI 2) (actually whoever wins CCA-North Scott)
D-6: Solon (RPI 5)
D-7: Oskaloosa (RPI 8)
D-8: Norwalk (RPI 20)
D-9: Lewis Central (RPI 3)

The next 7 RPIs as of now are:

North Scott (RPI 6)
Heelan (RPI 7)
Waverly Shell Rock (RPI 9)
Harlan (RPI 11)
Spencer (RPI 12)
Pella (RPI 13)
Independence (RPI 14)

The problem with looking at it this way is, for Decorah to win D-3 they’ll probably beat Independence, knocking them down the RPI list (and Waverly Shell Rock still plays Independence, too). Spencer still plays Heelan, the North Scott-CCA loser will drop, etc.

Who’s further down the RPI list right now, waiting their chance?

Western Dubuque (RPI 15)
Storm Lake (RPI 16 - still to play Heelan and SBL)
Denison-Schleswig (RPI 17 - still to play SBL)
Glenwood (RPI 18 - still to play Lewis Central)
Marion (RPI 19 - still to play Western Dubuque and Xavier)

So I would say Western Dubuque is in pretty good shape to get into the playoff field if they beat Marion Friday. The loser of North Scott-CCA is probably still in. The loser of Waverly Shell Rock-Independence is probably out (assuming Decorah takes that district, and if Independence loses to Decorah their chances are nil). Spencer will probably slip out of the at-large list, too.

So when you really get down to it, the likely at-large teams are:

North Scott (or CCA)
Heelan
Harlan
Pella
Western Dubuque (or Marion)
Waverly Shell Rock (beating Independence would help)
Maybe the winner of Fairfield-Washington? Or if Denison-Schleswig or Glenwood are able to keep their RPI high enough (I expect two losses for Storm Lake).

 

[hufbnch5]

If Spencer would beat Heelan both would still be at large bids.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Well, sure, of course they would. I went with the assumption that Heelan wins that game. I had to make some assumptions ... if Xavier loses twice then Marion or Western Dubuque (or both) are in for sure, if Storm Lake wins twice they’ll be in, etc,,etc. There could mathematically be a five-way tie in D-1 that leaves only three at-large spots available. I just kinda went with what I considered likely.

 

[Iowasportsnut]

KidSilver - what is your prediction for first round pairings, based on your guesses above? Taking into account, district champs, RPI, head to head matchups, and geography.

 

[LincolntwspFarmer]

Last week - week 6, dist 2 had not one team in the top 16 RPI index - you know, the State said they wanted the "top 16 teams" in the playoffs with their 'new RPI index' - - - - oh but before the top 16, they will let each district champion in the playoffs, - so 9 champions (regardless of quality or RPI index rank) and then the next top 7 rated teams from their RPI - wow. This week #7, 2 districts - District 2 and District 8 - neither of these 2 districts have a top 16 team. This week #7, the leader in Dist 2 is Carroll with a RPI rank of 30 - and - District 8 has a leader with a RPI index rank of 21 and the 2nd ranked team in D-8 has a RPI rank of 20. Go figure, this is the State's way of getting what they claimed would be the "Top 16 teams in Class 3-A - wow. It seems to me that the state totally missed on this by letting "each district winner" in regardless of their RPI ranking. I know this is their first year / attempt - to allegedly refine the playoff system to (as they say) "get the best / top 16 teams into the playoffs. - - - and I know there are 2 weeks / games to go yet and changes are coming to the rankings, but - - - -

 

[KidSilverhair]

KidSilver - what is your prediction for first round pairings, based on your guesses above? Taking into account, district champs, RPI, head to head matchups, and geography.

A complete WAG here - I'm assuming SBL, Carroll, Decorah, Xavier, Clear Creek-Amana, Solon, Oskaloosa, Norwalk, and Lewis Central win their districts. For at-larges I went with North Scott, Heelan, Harlan, Pella, Western Dubuque, Waverly Shell Rock, and Washington.

Carroll at SBL
Heelan at Lewis Central
---
Harlan at Norwalk
Pella at Clear Creek Amana
------
Waverly Shell Rock at Xavier
Western Dubuque at Decorah
---
North Scott at Solon
Washington at Oskaloosa

The geographical pairings are a little weird, and I admit I didn't really do much with RPI as far as the bracketing goes. If North Scott knocks off CCA, then you've got a real problem with Oskaloosa; it makes sense geographically to send Washington to North Scott and CCA to Solon, with Pella going to Norwalk ... but the next nearest opponent for Osky would be Carroll, maybe?

And again, the state might go more strongly with RPI for those brackets in the first two rounds, in which case I may be way off.

 

[Iowasportsnut]

A complete WAG here - I'm assuming SBL, Carroll, Decorah, Xavier, Clear Creek-Amana, Solon, Oskaloosa, Norwalk, and Lewis Central win their districts. For at-larges I went with North Scott, Heelan, Harlan, Pella, Western Dubuque, Waverly Shell Rock, and Washington.

Carroll at SBL
Heelan at Lewis Central
---
Harlan at Norwalk
Pella at Clear Creek Amana
------
Waverly Shell Rock at Xavier
Western Dubuque at Decorah
---
North Scott at Solon
Washington at Oskaloosa

The geographical pairings are a little weird, and I admit I didn't really do much with RPI as far as the bracketing goes. If North Scott knocks off CCA, then you've got a real problem with Oskaloosa; it makes sense geographically to send Washington to North Scott and CCA to Solon, with Pella going to Norwalk ... but the next nearest opponent for Osky would be Carroll, maybe?

And again, the state might go more strongly with RPI for those brackets in the first two rounds, in which case I may be way off.

This is interesting. I wouldn't want to see SBL get paired with LC second round. That's going to be unfortunate for SBL. I believe SBL is probably one of the four best teams in the state, it would stink to see them get paired with LC. Hopefully the state sends SBL north or east.

 

[KidSilverhair]

RPI-wise, the state might try to separate SBL and Lewis Central (potentially #1 and #3 in RPI). Geographically-wise, it's tough to do. Look at the other potential district winners, who would generally be favored to advance to the second round: Decorah, Xavier, Solon, Clear Creek-Amana (or North Scott), Oskaloosa ... if Norwalk gets paired with Pella and Pella beats them, Pella. Which one of those is going to get sent all the way to northwestern Iowa? It's daunting. I suppose for RPI purposes they might try to bracket Decorah with SBL, but my goodness, Decorah to Sergeant Bluff is a five-hour trip. Tiffin is four and a half, but if they finish #2 in RPI that's not a fair quarterfinal anyway. Xavier would be just over four hours.

The same thing goes for Lewis Central. You're looking at Norwalk or Pella as the closest possible contenders for a second-round game ... everybody else is a long long way away. Oskaloosa, maybe, that's just about three hours. Heck, Oskaloosa is closer than most of the other eastern Iowa schools to SBL, too - that's not quite four hours.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Ideally you'd want the top four RPIs to make it to the Dome. Right now that's SBL, CCA, Lewis Central and Xavier. If you could bracket in a way to have those four be in separate brackets, that's what you'd try to do. I'd guess including Oskaloosa opposite Lewis Central might be possible; it's going to be tough for SBL, though. As I said, maybe Decorah, maybe the Norwalk-Pella pairing.

One of the issues with pairing Oskaloosa with Lewis Central is, what if Oskaloosa plays Washington in the first round, and loses? You send Washington to Council Bluffs?

This was easier when it was just geography in play. This idea of trying to protect your top RPI teams makes it quite a bit more complicated.

 

[hufbnch5]

Here is another WAG. Agree with district winners but think at larges will be WSR, Spencer, North Scott, Heelan, Harlan, WD Epworth and Pella.

Heelan at Lewis Central
Harlan at SBL
Carroll at Norwalk
Spencer at Decorah

WSR at Xavier
Pella at CC Amana
WD Epworth at Solon
North Scott at Oskaloosa

This goes by geography and RPI. Think road trips aren’t bad except for Decorah moving to the west side of state but Spencer will make that road trip first round.

 

[Iowasportsnut]

I think rewarding RPI and a seasons work, trumps geography. What's the difference in a 2, 3, or 4 hour drive, if it pairs up a more appropriate matchup. The kids are going to get up for a 2 hour road trip game the same way they will a 3 hour road trip.

A western Iowa team is going to most likely draw a tough matchup. SBL doesn't want to be paired with LC. Harlan's coach Bladt said, "our only hope is we can play someone from the East districts"... They don't want to see LC. I hope the state recognizes the talent bunched together on the Western side of the state and spreads the matchups out. Especially for a team like SBL or Harlan. They deserve a chance.

 

[KidSilverhair]

You might very well be right about Spencer. While Pella & Western Dubuque will likely pass them, I don’t know if somebody like Washington or Fairfield can get past them into that 14th spot. Maybe Independence if they can win one of their games, but that means Decorah or Waverly Shell Rock might slip. Still up in the air.

 

[KidSilverhair]

While there’s “talent bunched together” on the west side, you do realize there are three undefeated teams in the east within a 13-mile radius?

 

[Iowasportsnut]

I do. Not to take anything away from them either. I think CCA, Solon, and Xavier are all very good teams. Do you think CCA or Solon are better than SBL or Harlan?

 

[KidSilverhair]

I do. Not to take anything away from them either. I think CCA, Solon, and Xavier are all very good teams. Do you think CCA or Solon are better than SBL or Harlan?

I don’t know. I’m not sure how much I believe in CCA (I actually think they’ll lose to North Scott) but Solon probably matches up pretty well with Harlan and SBL.

 

[KidSilverhair]

After thinking a little more, I’m kind of coming around to the idea of Spencer getting in as the last at-large. I also have a feeling North Scott will beat CCA and win D-5, which actually gives us a decent bracket to get the top 4 RPIs to the Dome. In this case, the top 4 would be 1) SBL; 2) Lewis Central; 3) Xavier; 4) Solon, probably?

Carroll at SBL
Spencer at Decorah/Independence
—-
Heelan at Lewis Central
Harlan at Norwalk
———
Waverly Shell Rock/Decorah at Xavier
Western Dubuque at North Scott
—-
Pella at Solon
Clear Creek Amana at Oskaloosa

Now, if CCA beats North Scott, there’s all kinds of changes in play: you might go with Spencer at Norwalk and Harlan at Oskaloosa, perhaps: North Scott would likely be at Decorah in that case, with Pella at CCA, Western Dubuque at Solon ...

Speculation runs wild!

 

[BushWhite]

Due to geography it should still be separated east and west with RPI being the factor of first round matchup which was the whole idea in the first place. You are not sending Spencer to Decorah, for example. Some football still to play so speculative only. The RPI and automatic district winner didn't work.
East
North Scott at Oskaloosa
WSR at Xavier
CCA at Decorah
Epworth WD at Solon
West
Carroll at LC
Harlan at Pella
Spencer at SBL
Heelan at Norwalk

 

[KidSilverhair]

Well right away you’ve got both North Scott and CCA traveling. That ain’t gonna happen, as one of them will win the district. Also Harlan can’t be st Pella if Oskaloosa wins that district, they have to both be on the road.

The state said they’d try to seed RPI as best they could within the limits of geography. What does that mean exactly? Well, I don’t know, but I’d guess they’ll try to arrange brackets so the top 4 RPIs could get to Cedar Falls. That would mean SBL and Lewis Central wouldn’t be in the same quarterfinal bracket, which means *somebody* from further east gets paired with Spencer or Harlan, and that means Decorah/Indee or Oskaloosa. If they don’t do that, they’re guaranteeing one of the top 4 RPIs can’t get to the Dome.

 

[BushWhite]

Geography and common sense should trump subjective RPI in the short term. It may change but SBL having a higher RPI rating than LC, a team they clock ran, throws the top four RPI ranking importance away. They are reseeding at the dome anyway. It will be interesting as always.

 

[hufbnch5]

Also state likes to avoid first round intra district games. Also more district champs on the east side of the state and Carroll being lowest RPI champs causes them to travel.

 

[BushWhite]

Rematches are part of football playoffs always have been. No reason to avoid them by sending Harlan to Decorah for the sake of some strange math. A local rematch increases interest and would be a profiteering bonanza for the state. They like that LOL.

 

[BushWhite]

Well right away you’ve got both North Scott and CCA traveling. That ain’t gonna happen, as one of them will win the district. Also Harlan can’t be st Pella if Oskaloosa wins that district, they have to both be on the road.

The state said they’d try to seed RPI as best they could within the limits of geography. What does that mean exactly? Well, I don’t know, but I’d guess they’ll try to arrange brackets so the top 4 RPIs could get to Cedar Falls. That would mean SBL and Lewis Central wouldn’t be in the same quarterfinal bracket, which means *somebody* from further east gets paired with Spencer or Harlan, and that means Decorah/Indee or Oskaloosa. If they don’t do that, they’re guaranteeing one of the top 4 RPIs can’t get to the Dome.

Yes, possibly flip to Epworth vs N.Scott and CCA at Solon. East will be very interesting, if they go by RPI on first round matchups.

 

[La_Fleur]

Geography and common sense should trump subjective RPI in the short term. It may change but SBL having a higher RPI rating than LC, a team they clock ran, throws the top four RPI ranking importance away. They are reseeding at the dome anyway. It will be interesting as always.

They're reseeding at the Dome? Was this announced somewhere?

 

[KidSilverhair]

They're reseeding at the Dome? Was this announced somewhere?

The postseason manual came out last week. Among the tidbits were reseeding for the semifinals, by RPI: number 1 vs number 4, number 2 vs number 3. The east-west split at the Dome is history. Also, quarterfinal home fields will be strictly by RPI, not head to head, district finish or anything else.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Because I have nothing better to do than think over high school football playoff scenarios (FACT CHECK: I actually do have lots of better things to do, I just put them off this time of year), here’s some more thoughts.

If Spencer makes the playoff field, there will be 6 playoff teams west of US 71. Easy-peasy, put them together in three games, right? Well, wrong, because only two of those six can host. Now, in my mind I think Heelan at Lewis Central and Carroll at SBL (worst RPI in the playoffs against perhaps the best) make sense. That means Harlan and Spencer have to look to the east.

They can’t both play Norwalk; so you are going to end up with either Harlan going to Oskaloosa (about 2 1/2 hours) or Spencer traveling to (probably) the D-3 champion, Decorah/Independence/Waverly Shell Rock. Or both, if the state decides to send Pella to Norwalk. From Spencer to Waverly is 3 hours; to Independence 3 1/2; to Decorah about 3 hours 40 minutes. (Even Norwalk is over 3 hours from Spencer.)

There’s simply no way around this. If Spencer makes the playoffs and other things go as they are likely to, either Spencer goes to northeast Iowa or Harlan goes to (most likely) Oskaloosa. Harlan-Norwalk plus Spencer to D-3 would be the least total travel in the first round, but it sets up a potential nightmare of a five-hour second-round trip (Decorah to SBL). Spencer-Norwalk plus Harlan-Oskaloosa is two fairly long first-round trips, and then you have the potential of Oskaloosa going to Lewis Central in the second round, but even that is under 3 hours. So I think Harlan at Oskaloosa has a decent chance of happening.

 

[nwmsbearcat]

The postseason manual came out last week. Among the tidbits were reseeding for the semifinals, by RPI: number 1 vs number 4, number 2 vs number 3. The east-west split at the Dome is history. Also, quarterfinal home fields will be strictly by RPI, not head to head, district finish or anything else.

Try this one on for size...because the IHSAA has already stated they will reseed at the Dome based on their beloved RPI...if Lewis Central and Xavier make it to the Final 4, which seems fairly likely based on what people are saying, it is at least a possibility that Lewis Central and Xavier could be a semifinal match-up. Hmmmm?!?!

We'll have to see how the RPI looks at Week 9, but it could very well happen.

 

[Iowasportsnut]

Because I have nothing better to do than think over high school football playoff scenarios (FACT CHECK: I actually do have lots of better things to do, I just put them off this time of year), here’s some more thoughts.

If Spencer makes the playoff field, there will be 6 playoff teams west of US 71. Easy-peasy, put them together in three games, right? Well, wrong, because only two of those six can host. Now, in my mind I think Heelan at Lewis Central and Carroll at SBL (worst RPI in the playoffs against perhaps the best) make sense. That means Harlan and Spencer have to look to the east.

They can’t both play Norwalk; so you are going to end up with either Harlan going to Oskaloosa (about 2 1/2 hours) or Spencer traveling to (probably) the D-3 champion, Decorah/Independence/Waverly Shell Rock. Or both, if the state decides to send Pella to Norwalk. From Spencer to Waverly is 3 hours; to Independence 3 1/2; to Decorah about 3 hours 40 minutes. (Even Norwalk is over 3 hours from Spencer.)

There’s simply no way around this. If Spencer makes the playoffs and other things go as they are likely to, either Spencer goes to northeast Iowa or Harlan goes to (most likely) Oskaloosa. Harlan-Norwalk plus Spencer to D-3 would be the least total travel in the first round, but it sets up a potential nightmare of a five-hour second-round trip (Decorah to SBL). Spencer-Norwalk plus Harlan-Oskaloosa is two fairly long first-round trips, and then you have the potential of Oskaloosa going to Lewis Central in the second round, but even that is under 3 hours. So I think Harlan at Oskaloosa has a decent chance of happening.

I’m confident whoever Harlan faces on the road they beat. You don’t want to play Harlan if your Oskaloosa or anybody for that matter. They are a very football team.

 

[PNation]

Here is my guess

Champs
1. SBL
2. Carroll
3. Decorah
4. Xavier
5. North Scott
6. Solon
7. Oskaloosa
8. Norwalk
9. Lewis Central

At Large
CCA
Heelan
WSR
Harlan
Pella
Western Dubuque
Spencer

With those teams, I tried to match up based upon RPI, Geography, and tried to avoid previous match ups. Here is what I came up with.

Carroll @ SBL
Spencer @ Lewis Central

CCA @ Decorah
WSR @ Xavier

Pella @ North Scott
Western Dubuque @ Solon

Harlan @ Oskaloosa
Heelan @ Norwalk

Not the greatest geographically, but to me it is more fun to see teams play that haven't played before.

 

[KidSilverhair]

That bracket is certainly possible. Again, though, I really think the state is going to try to bracket to give the top 4 RPIs a shot at the Dome - no, I don't have anything in writing, it's just what I think. I don't know if they'd set up a Lewis Central-SBL quarterfinal in that case. You could just flip the Spencer-Lewis Central and the Heelan-Norwalk games in the brackets, so Lewis Central gets in with Harlan/Osky and SBL is in with Heelan/Norwalk.

Or I could be wrong. I just don't think, if there's any way around it, that the state will have any of the top 4 RPI teams slated to meet before the semis.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Try this one on for size...because the IHSAA has already stated they will reseed at the Dome based on their beloved RPI...if Lewis Central and Xavier make it to the Final 4, which seems fairly likely based on what people are saying, it is at least a possibility that Lewis Central and Xavier could be a semifinal match-up. Hmmmm?!?!

We'll have to see how the RPI looks at Week 9, but it could very well happen.

Yep, I mentioned this in another thread. If North Scott beats CCA Friday, it's very possible the top 4 RPIs are SBL, Lewis Central, Xavier, and Solon ... and if those four make it to the Dome, Xavier and Lewis Central would play a semifinal. It's possible, indeed (that also opens the possibility of an SBL/Lewis Central championship game, and who ever thought you might see two Missouri River teams facing off in a championship game?).

 

[PNation]

I think that you're right about trying to get the top 4 there, so switch the Lewis Central vs. Spencer game with the Oskaloosa vs. Harlan game. If you do that, I think that you get SBL, Xavier, North Scott, and Lewis Central to the semis. So again you probably get the title game in the semis.

 

[BushWhite]

(that also opens the possibility of an SBL/Lewis Central championship game, and who ever thought you might see two Missouri River teams facing off in a championship game
And one that had LC already clock run SBL that would be a yawner. North Scott and Xavier would seem to match up much better to LC judging from earlier results. .

 

[hufbnch5]

Because I have

If Spencer makes the playoff field, there will be 6 playoff teams west of US 71. Easy-peasy, put them together in three games, right? Well, wrong, because only two of those six can host. Now, in my mind I think Heelan at Lewis Central and Carroll at SBL (worst RPI in the playoffs against perhaps the best) make sense. That means Harlan and Spencer have to look to the east.

They can’t both play Norwalk; so you are going to end up with either Harlan going to Oskaloosa (about 2 1/2 hours) or Spencer traveling to (probably) the D-3 champion, Decorah/Independence/Waverly Shell Rock. Or both, if the state decides to send Pella to Norwalk. From Spencer to Waverly is 3 hours; to Independence 3 1/2; to Decorah about

Because I have nothing better to do than think over high school football playoff scenarios (FACT CHECK: I actually do have lots of better things to do, I just put them off this time of year), here’s some more thoughts.

If Spencer makes the playoff field, there will be 6 playoff teams west of US 71. Easy-peasy, put them together in three games, right? Well, wrong, because only two of those six can host. Now, in my mind I think Heelan at Lewis Central and Carroll at SBL (worst RPI in the playoffs against perhaps the best) make sense. That means Harlan and Spencer have to look to the east.

They can’t both play Norwalk; so you are going to end up with either Harlan going to Oskaloosa (about 2 1/2 hours) or Spencer traveling to (probably) the D-3 champion, Decorah/Independence/Waverly Shell Rock. Or both, if the state decides to send Pella to Norwalk. From Spencer to Waverly is 3 hours; to Independence 3 1/2; to Decorah about 3 hours 40 minutes. (Even Norwalk is over 3 hours from Spencer.)

There’s simply no way around this. If Spencer makes the playoffs and other things go as they are likely to, either Spencer goes to northeast Iowa or Harlan goes to (most likely) Oskaloosa. Harlan-Norwalk plus Spencer to D-3 would be the least total travel in the first round, but it sets up a potential nightmare of a five-hour second-round trip (Decorah to SBL). Spencer-Norwalk plus Harlan-Oskaloosa is two fairly long first-round trips, and then you have the potential of Oskaloosa going to Lewis Central in the second round, but even that is under 3 hours. So I think Harlan at Oskaloosa has a decent chance of happening.

Agree with your predictions. Think the state will hopefully go this way. Seems like a fair set up just some travel. Playing on Friday nights should help. Will see how this week goes and then more predictions

 

[KidSilverhair]

Lewis Central is not in Missouri River.

Of course it’s not “in” the Missouri River. Neither is Sergeant Bluff-Luton. But both high schools are within 5 miles of the river, so, you know ... close enough.

Or did you think I meant the Missouri River Conference? No, I wasn’t meaning that ... just the idea of two western teams (two far western teams at that) meeting in the championship, which has been divided east/west for many years.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I can see where the confusion happened.

 

[KidSilverhair]

One more little oddity about RPI I discovered while plugging different things in: for the undefeated teams, their own winning percentage can’t get any better. It’s already 1.0000; winning two more games isn’t going to make it go up. Beating those two district opponents is going to knock down your OWP (although, as mentioned earlier, the OWP in your district is going to be unchanging minus your own district WP). It’s very likely that every team currently 7-0 might actually have a lower RPI at the end of the year, even finishing 9-0.

Just a little odd quirk. It shouldn’t make any difference as far as where teams rank; but a team that’s 6-1 now that ends up 8-1 will see their RPI go up (WP goes from .8571 to .8888) while a 7-0 team that finishes 9-0 will probably see theirs dip a little.

You really need your non-district opponents to keep winning to give your RPI a chance to improve.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Just for grins (again) I projected what I think might happen over the next two weeks in 3A. I didn't do any other classes, so teams that played outside 3A in the nondistrict will have slightly different RPIs than what I ended up with here, but then my projections also have every district champion at 5-0 (which probably won't happen) so take this with a grain of salt as big as a ... big chunk of salt?

This gave me district champions like so:
D-1: Sergeant Bluff-Luton (.7213, #1)
D-2: Carroll (.5450, #22)
D-3: Decorah (.6559, #7)
D-4: Xavier (.6902, #2)
D-5: North Scott (.6767, #4)
D-6: Solon (.6743, #6)
D-7: Oskaloosa (.6574, #8)
D-8: Norwalk (.5838, #15)
D-9: Lewis Central (.6894, #3)

The other qualifiers would be:

Heelan (.6752, #5)
Waverly-Shell Rock (.6478, #9)
Clear Creek-Amana (.6471, #10)
Harlan (.6417, #11)
Western Dubuque (.6269, #12)
Pella (.6248, #13)
Spencer (.5957, #14)

Just outside (with a chance to get in if my guesses are incorrect):

Bondurant-Farrar (.5730)
Washington (.5691)
Denison-Schleswig (.5621)
Glenwood (.5565)

A tentative bracket that protects the top 4 and generally considers seeding otherwise might be:

Carroll at SBL
Heelan at Norwalk
----
Spencer at Lewis Central
Harlan at Oskaloosa
-----
-----
Waverly Shell Rock at Xavier
Western Dubuque at Decorah
-----
Clear Creek Amana at Solon
Pella at North Scott


You could have Heelan at Lewis Central and Spencer at Norwalk; but then you're matching two of the top 5 RPIs in the first round, and I don't know if the state wants to do that. Likewise Waverly Shell Rock could go to Solon with CCA at Xavier; that wouldn't make a lot of difference (WSR at #9, CCA #10). Waverly Shell Rock did play several nondistrict games outside of 3A, so their RPI will probably be different than what I have for them here anyway.

This bracket sets up potential Solon-North Scott and Heelan-SBL battles in the second round, which would be something to see. Also, going by "chalk," you'd once again have #2 Xavier vs #3 Lewis Central in the semis.

 

[KidSilverhair]

One more little oddity about RPI I discovered while plugging different things in: for the undefeated teams, their own winning percentage can’t get any better. It’s already 1.0000; winning two more games isn’t going to make it go up. Beating those two district opponents is going to knock down your OWP (although, as mentioned earlier, the OWP in your district is going to be unchanging minus your own district WP). It’s very likely that every team currently 7-0 might actually have a lower RPI at the end of the year, even finishing 9-0.

Just a little odd quirk. It shouldn’t make any difference as far as where teams rank; but a team that’s 6-1 now that ends up 8-1 will see their RPI go up (WP goes from .8571 to .8888) while a 7-0 team that finishes 9-0 will probably see theirs dip a little.

You really need your non-district opponents to keep winning to give your RPI a chance to improve.

Of course, I then projected out the final two weeks and discovered, well, some of those teams' RPIs do indeed go up. If SBL wins out their RPI goes up a bit, same with Xavier ... so I spouted off something not that accurate before I had actually ran the numbers.

So you can disregard a lot of this. While it's true undefeated teams can't improve their own WP, since OWP is weighted the same they still have the opportunity to get better over the last two weeks.

And this factor really isn't having a huge effect on the RPI rankings anyway, which is really what matters.

 

[BushWhite]

If LC being a two seed behind a team they clock ran ends all creditability of the RPI system. Thanks for breaking down Kidsilverhair, a lot of football to play but gives you a good idea on how it should work. Also the fear of district rematches is ridiculous those add to the suspense, especially when teams are traditional rivals. A Osky vs Pella rematch would be quite a sequel to that 38-37 battle last week.