Early CF playoff predictions.

[Reasoned]

Looking at remaining schedules and conference championships, here’s my four:
1) FL State, (they have the “easiest” path) no remaining ranked teams and ACC championship opponent, Louisville?
2) GA, but they have to get through Ole Miss, TN and SECC with one loss….one loss will get them in. If Bama wins out convincingly (and other oddities take place) they can make it.
3) Winner of MI vs OSU game, MI has PSU and OSU left, OSU has nobody but MI and for whoever wins the B1G east, the B1G championship is a cakewalk (possibly against my beloved Hawks)
4) I think the NCAA would love to see a PAC 12 entry ( given this being the last year for the conference) so if WA wins out ( have to beat ranked Utah & Oregon St) or Oregon (they have USC, which you never know what team shows up) but a PAC 12 team with one loss is in…..IMO

 

[BKHusky]

I agree with most of this, tho I don’t agree with your UGA/UA part. Assuming no major upsets (big assumption), FSU and the UM/OSU winner is obviously in. That leaves two spots. Winner of Bama/UGA gets in (assuming Bama beats UK and AU), and that leaves one spot.

If the PAC-12 championship is a one loss Oregon vs undefeated Washington, I think the winner of that gets the 4th spot. But, you also still have Texas with one loss that could finish 12-1.

There would need to be a lot of chaos the last couple weeks for UGA to be able to get in with an SECCG loss and the SEC get two teams in.

 

[Reasoned]

I agree with most of this, tho I don’t agree with your UGA/UA part. Assuming no major upsets (big assumption), FSU and the UM/OSU winner is obviously in. That leaves two spots. Winner of Bama/UGA gets in (assuming Bama beats UK and AU), and that leaves one spot.

If the PAC-12 championship is a one loss Oregon vs undefeated Washington, I think the winner of that gets the 4th spot. But, you also still have Texas with one loss that could finish 12-1.

There would need to be a lot of chaos the last couple weeks for UGA to be able to get in with an SECCG loss and the SEC get two teams in.

Yeah, I get your analysis on GA/Bama but think of this, if Miss beats GA and Bama beats GA in the SECC (assuming both have one loss going into it) I could see the NCAA snubbing the SEC and going with possibly Texas as the only one loss team….possible

 

[BKHusky]

Yeah, I get your analysis on GA/Bama but think of this, if Miss beats GA and Bama beats GA in the SECC (assuming both have one loss going into it) I could see the NCAA snubbing the SEC and going with possibly Texas as the only one loss team….possible

Hard to see them leaving a one loss team out with the best SOS in the country. I get the argument for it if you have 3 undefeated teams and then Texas/Alabama with one loss. But I still think Bama gets in in that scenario. Texas however has a strong SOS too, so it would be an interesting ordeal.

 

[Reasoned]

Hard to see them leaving a one loss team out with the best SOS in the country. I get the argument for it if you have 3 undefeated teams and then Texas/Alabama with one loss. But I still think Bama gets in in that scenario. Texas however has a strong SOS too, so it would be an interesting ordeal.

This is why the 12 teams scenario was concocted…..well, that and the $

 

[BamaFan1137]

Assuming UGA and Bama win out out to the SECCG, the winner of that game is in imho. Also there's a punchers chance that Washington loses before seasons end and it would be a very Pac-12 thing to do for Oregon to lose to USCe.

Oregon St being ranked 12th is an example of people hoping for a Pac-12 playoff team by pretending that beating the Beavs is tantamount to beating LSU or UT. Horse shit imho.

 

[dhetiger]

Assuming UGA and Bama win out out to the SECCG, the winner of that game is in imho. Also there's a punchers chance that Washington loses before seasons end and it would be a very Pac-12 thing to do for Oregon to lose to USCe.

Oregon St being ranked 12th is an example of people hoping for a Pac-12 playoff team by pretending that beating the Beavs is tantamount to beating LSU or UT. Horse shit imho.

It would absolutely be a PAC12 thing to do for Oregon to lose to a South Carolina team they won't play. Now, losing to USCw would also be a PAC12 thing to do, but not nearly on the same level as what you said.

Bammers and math, Americans and geography, Democrats and science....

 

[GwinnettDawg]

Yeah, I get your analysis on GA/Bama but think of this, if Miss beats GA and Bama beats GA in the SECC (assuming both have one loss going into it) I could see the NCAA snubbing the SEC and going with possibly Texas as the only one loss team….possible

A one loss SEC champ is in.

 

[IrishPokerDog]

A one loss SEC champ is in.

There’s always the Chance FSU gets knocked out after UK knocks down UL, and UL beats FSU…. Jus saying. Then there’s no doubt

 

[Reasoned]

A one loss SEC champ is in.

Even IF ACC champ FSU is undefeated, B1G champ OSU or MI is undefeated and PAC champ WA is undefeated? then you’ll have one loss Texas and OSU/MI squealing like stuck pigs

 

[BKHusky]

Even IF ACC champ FSU is undefeated, B1G champ OSU or MI is undefeated and PAC champ WA is undefeated? then you’ll have one loss Texas and OSU/MI squealing like stuck pigs

Yes, they’d be in in that scenario.

Loser of OSU/Michigan would have no argument with the weaker SOS and no Conf Champ.

A one loss Alabama actually has a stronger argument than a one loss UGA because of the SOS/SOR. If UGA drops one to Ole Miss or UT, it does muddy the waters more.

Yes there will be shrieking if Bama gets in over UT if both have one loss. It’s gonna happen, but there will be shrieking.

 

[Reasoned]

Yes there will be shrieking if Bama gets in over UT if both have one loss. It’s gonna happen, but there will be shrieking.

Especially since UT beat Bama

 

[BKHusky]

Especially since UT beat Bama

Oh the shrieking will be deafening, no doubt.

 

[Reasoned]

The new top 10:

1	Georgia (49)	1558	1	9-0
2	Michigan (9)	1486	2	9-0
3	Ohio State (3)	1463	3	9-0
4	Florida State (2)	1411	4	9-0
5	Washington	1333	5	9-0
6	Oregon	1240	6	8-1
7	Texas	1190	7	8-1
8	Alabama	1143	8	8-1
9	Penn State	1075	9	8-1
10	Ole Miss	1027	11	8-1

So there you go, 3 B1G, 2 PAC-12, 3 SEC, and UT, FSU

 

[GwinnettDawg]

Yes, they’d be in in that scenario.

Loser of OSU/Michigan would have no argument with the weaker SOS and no Conf Champ.

A one loss Alabama actually has a stronger argument than a one loss UGA because of the SOS/SOR. If UGA drops one to Ole Miss or UT, it does muddy the waters more.

Yes there will be shrieking if Bama gets in over UT if both have one loss. It’s gonna happen, but there will be shrieking.

So at the end of the season who will Bama have beaten that’s so much better than Georgia’s resume? Let’s assume Georgia has lost to either Tennessee or Ole Miss that were both beaten by Bama. LSU is now at 3 losses. Texas? That’s pretty much it I think. But we have Missouri which is no slouch this year. I think they punk Tennessee this weekend.

 

[dhetiger]

So at the end of the season who will Bama have beaten that’s so much better than Georgia’s resume? Let’s assume Georgia has lost to either Tennessee or Ole Miss that were both beaten by Bama. LSU is now at 3 losses. Texas? That’s pretty much it I think. But we have Missouri which is no slouch this year. I think they punk Tennessee this weekend.

No way a 1 loss Texas doesn't get in over a 1 loss bama

 

[BKHusky]

So at the end of the season who will Bama have beaten that’s so much better than Georgia’s resume? Let’s assume Georgia has lost to either Tennessee or Ole Miss that were both beaten by Bama. LSU is now at 3 losses. Texas? That’s pretty much it I think. But we have Missouri which is no slouch this year. I think they punk Tennessee this weekend.

I just said it gets muddier because UGA would have a weaker SOS. I still think a one loss UGA gets in over a one loss Texas too. The other problem for UGA is recent losses seem to hurt worse.

 

[BKHusky]

Resumes of 1 loss Bama/UGA/Texas (assuming UGA loses to Ole Miss, and beats Bama). Using current ratings

Alabama
6 - W - UGA
7 - L - Texas
10 - W - LSU
12 - W - Tennessee
15 - W - Ole Miss
16 - W - Texas A&M

Georgia
3 - W - Bama
12 - W - Tennessee
15 - L - Ole Miss
25 - W - Missouri
36 - W - Auburn
38 - W - Kentucky

Texas
3 - W - Bama
8 - W - Kansas State
11 - L - Oklahoma
24 - W - Kansas
28 - W - TCU
6th game would be whoever they play in the Big 12 Championship. OU? OSU?

I'm using Sagarin because I always have, but obviously it highly/over values LSU and Texas A&M relative to other rankings. This is also just where teams stand now, not where they'll end up.

 

[Reasoned]

I just said it gets muddier because UGA would have a weaker SOS. I still think a one loss UGA gets in over a one loss Texas too. The other problem for UGA is recent losses seem to hurt worse.

Probably, when it comes down to choices like that, HOW teams win can and do affect the selection process.

 

[Reasoned]

Resumes of 1 loss Bama/UGA/Texas (assuming UGA loses to Ole Miss, and beats Bama). Using current ratings

Alabama
6 - W - UGA
7 - L - Texas
10 - W - LSU
12 - W - Tennessee
15 - W - Ole Miss
16 - W - Texas A&M

Georgia
3 - W - Bama
12 - W - Tennessee
15 - L - Ole Miss
25 - W - Missouri
36 - W - Auburn
38 - W - Kentucky

Texas
3 - W - Bama
8 - W - Kansas State
11 - L - Oklahoma
24 - W - Kansas
28 - W - TCU
6th game would be whoever they play in the Big 12 Championship. OU? OSU?

I'm using Sagarin because I always have, but obviously it highly/over values LSU and Texas A&M relative to other rankings. This is also just where teams stand now, not where they'll end up.

I’m not familiar with this model but have heard you reference it on several occasions. The 6-3 Kansas State and LSU in top 10 have me scratching my head but I kind of understand the whole strength of your opponents argument.

 

[BamaFan1137]

It would absolutely be a PAC12 thing to do for Oregon to lose to a South Carolina team they won't play. Now, losing to USCw would also be a PAC12 thing to do, but not nearly on the same level as what you said.

Bammers and math, Americans and geography, Democrats and science....

 

[BamaFan1137]

No way a 1 loss Texas doesn't get in over a 1 loss bama

If we beat an undefeated UGA in the SECCG? Agree to disagree.

 

[dhetiger]

If we beat an undefeated UGA in the SECCG? Agree to disagree.

You thought Southern Cal was in the east. Even blueberries can't cure that.

 

[Reasoned]

If we beat an undefeated UGA in the SECCG? Agree to disagree.

Yeah and just think of the Texas reaction, we beat Bama already in THEIR house….makes for interesting scenarios.

 

[IrishPokerDog]

I want Michigan to get in, and have 15 volunteers in obnoxious bright colors on the sidelines all throwing different signals - that would Be great

 

[dhetiger]

I want Michigan to get in, and have 15 volunteers in obnoxious bright colors on the sidelines all throwing different signals - that would Be great

Harbaugh's time in San Francisco is really showing

 

[BKHusky]

I’m not familiar with this model but have heard you reference it on several occasions. The 6-3 Kansas State and LSU in top 10 have me scratching my head but I kind of understand the whole strength of your opponents argument.

I’ve used it for years, partially because it’s an easy way to rank all teams, but I’ve found it pretty accurate over the years.

Sometimes it is obvious a team is better/worse than their record, and it typically shows that pretty well. I think it having FSU at 9 and Washington at 14 is probably pretty accurate of how good both those teams are. LSU and K-State’s rankings are largely because of who they’ve lost to. I mean the 4th best team in the nation can go 9-3 if they play teams 1-3.

 

[IrishPokerDog]

I’ve used it for years, partially because it’s an easy way to rank all teams, but I’ve found it pretty accurate over the years.

Sometimes it is obvious a team is better/worse than their record, and it typically shows that pretty well. I think it having FSU at 9 and Washington at 14 is probably pretty accurate of how good both those teams are. LSU and K-State’s rankings are largely because of who they’ve lost to. I mean the 4th best team in the nation can go 9-3 if they play teams 1-3.

Yep, I’ve been using Sagarin for decades, bball and football

 

[BamaFan1137]

You thought Southern Cal was in the east. Even blueberries can't cure that.

Dude, I eat a LOT of blueberries now.

 

[BamaFan1137]

Yeah and just think of the Texas reaction, we beat Bama already in THEIR house….makes for interesting scenarios.

I'd understand the reaction but I still think we would get in over them in such a scenario. The SEC is winning NC's at a clip greater than 50% over the last 2 decades. Not putting its champion in with a 12-1 record vs the competition we've played would be very surprising to me.

Lots of football to be played. Teams will drop games no one expects them too and that may well include Bama.

 

[dhetiger]

Dude, I eat a LOT of blueberries now.

You're welcome

 

[BamaFan1137]

You're welcome

Well you...and they're also good for battling leukemia. But it's mostly you.

 

[dhetiger]

Well you...and they're also good for battling leukemia. But it's mostly you.

And all it took was loving my kids. Well, that, and an unwavering desire to watch Bobby's head explode.

 

[BamaFan1137]

And all it took was loving my kids. Well, that, and an unwavering desire to watch Bobby's head explode.

Tell your kids I said thank you for helping me with my treatment. 😂

On a serious note, after 17.5 days of treatment (I take the targeted chemo pills twice a day), my WBC count went from 36,500 to 8,000. Suck my ball bag, cancer.

 

[dhetiger]

Tell your kids I said thank you for helping me with my treatment. 😂

On a serious note, after 17.5 days of treatment (I take the targeted chemo pills twice a day), my WBC count went from 36,500 to 8,000. Suck my ball bag, cancer.

That's awesome news, bud

 

[Reasoned]

The first spot is locked, (sorry for my beloved Hawks but they’re barely a speed bump for Michigan).

 

[BKHusky]

Stewart Mandel had a writeup yesterday in the Atlantic where he projected all possible outcomes of the games that could affect this weekend. In the 8 scenarios where Bama beats UGA, he has Bama in the playoffs in all 8.

If Bama wins, I think the final four will be

1) Michigan
2) Alabama
3) Oregon
4) Florida State (or Texas, if FSU loses)

 

[BamaFan1137]

Stewart Mandel had a writeup yesterday in the Atlantic where he projected all possible outcomes of the games that could affect this weekend. In the 8 scenarios where Bama beats UGA, he has Bama in the playoffs in all 8.

If Bama wins, I think the final four will be

1) Michigan
2) Alabama
3) Oregon
4) Florida State (or Texas, if FSU loses)

Agree. I'd honestly prefer to see UGA in it in that scenario because we all believe that they're better than FSU or Texas.

Even Ohio State is better than FSU imo but perhaps not better than Texas.

 

[derek_tiger]

Tell your kids I said thank you for helping me with my treatment. 😂

On a serious note, after 17.5 days of treatment (I take the targeted chemo pills twice a day), my WBC count went from 36,500 to 8,000. Suck my ball bag, cancer.

Awesome news, Steve! Sorry for being late with the kudos on this, but it is a great answer to prayers! I would have responded sooner, but Brandon keeps trying to shut off my gas stove while my head is in it....

 

[derek_tiger]

Stewart Mandel had a writeup yesterday in the Atlantic where he projected all possible outcomes of the games that could affect this weekend. In the 8 scenarios where Bama beats UGA, he has Bama in the playoffs in all 8.

If Bama wins, I think the final four will be

1) Michigan
2) Alabama
3) Oregon
4) Florida State (or Texas, if FSU loses)

I don't know whether to congratulate you or vomit that you read the Atlantic...