I have to agree with that more so for City High. It is remarkable that people do not mention IC West in the same sentence, back to back finals and one losing season will do it I guess
Dowling Valley Final?
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I have seen it coming throughout the underclassmen games, once Liberty siphoned off kids. CF scored 47 and 61 unanswered in two straight frosh/soph games. It will be ugly
Well on
This will be the year CF might be playing IC West instead of IC High. For bragging rights tied in with Uni, Iowa State and Iowa, Cedar Falls will have Ames on the Schedule and one of the Iowa City Schools always unless they do away with it
Another thought, I think Valley must have arguably the largest potential talent pool in the state, as WDM is roughly 60,000 people and they also get nearly all kids in Clive (16,000, also affluent suburb), so there is one high school for a population of 76,000ish, and again, since Dowling draws from all over the metro and only a small fraction of Dowling students actualy live in WDM, is there any other school that has such a larger population of potential talent? Doesn't Davenport have 3 high schools for like 105,000 people?
In 4A? I believe Fort Dodge, Indianola, Muscatine, Marshalltown, and even Johnston and Waukee have similar or smaller populations to draw from than Cedar Falls, and as mentioned by many previous posters, SES is an important factor in program success.
What my point/question was is this: is there any school in Iowa that has a larger population to draw from (and also keeping in mind the relatively high SES and resources in WDM) than Valley? ONE high school for 76,000 relatively affluent people? I know there has been talk of creating another high school for years, but some have said, and rightly so, is that that would destroy Valley's dominance in so many sports and extracurriculars.
The answer is no. Not that amount to one school. The Metro keeps growing and it seems that the affluent levels are rising too. Another school is going to be built in Waukee and I've heard rumblings of another Catholic school to be put in Ankeny. The shift from East dominance to the West I believe is here to stay. The glaring difference to me is that over the next 10-15 years I could see multiple Metro schools contending for a title, I can't say outside of CF, Bettendorf, and occasionally a CR product there is any promise on that side of the state. With the inception of Iowa City Liberty, that decimated ICW & ICH. Don't get me wrong, Valley, Dowling, and Centennial are still the top of the ladder (year in and out) but with the population and affluence growing in the surrounding communities I wouldn't be surprised to see SEP, Waukee, Ankeny, Urbandale, and Johnston making legit pushes over the next decade.
Cedar Falls is going through another growth spurt, that and 3-4yrs down the road a new High School will be built. I think CF is already getting a few kids from outlying schools and will draw more
Yes, and Assumption HS tends to draw many of the affluent (and athletic) Davenport students who live in the DCHS district. Bettendorf has approximately 35k population but both BHS and PV draw from the city. Additionally, almost all of the growth is located in the PV boundary due to availability of undeveloped RE. Look, due to changes in development, job opportunities and funding (think of where your state income tax goes), I predict the disparity from the “Capital City” haves and the (as they say in IL) downstate have nots will continue to widen.
I agree, it seems Valley has an advantage. I haven't heard those rumors of another Catholic school in Ankeny (I assume you mean k-8 school?), but I doubt they are true-Dowling was built to fit roughly 2000 students in 72-73 (and it did have those numbers as many of the parochial schools like Heelan and Wahlert were much larger back in the day and into the 80's), but since there are good suburban public school alternatives and with rising tuition costs (and religious scandals), and the secularization of America, most Catholic school's numbers have been down since the mid 90s. Indeed, Dowling went as low as 1000 at the beginning of the century, but again, since the rising affluence/population, the name recognition of Dowling as a great sports and to some extent academic school, or affluent parents just wanting a private school and Dowling being one of the only options in the metro that isn't tiny in size), they have been able to raise those numbers to 1400-1500. The diocese would not waste money to build another school as Dowling can already fit 500 more, and also, for the same reasons as Valley keeping one large high school, it would hurt Dowling's dominance in sports.
I just seen a aerial view of Dowling and it is impressive. This was in the Register I think as it said they have bought 4 properties for expansion 5-10yrs down the road.
Are they land locked to where they cannot build their own Stadium as I seen a older football field there.
I'm not familiar with Dowling and where or why they play their home games elsewhere vs building their own Stadium?
Yeah, real estate in scarce over there. They currently rent out Valley's stadium for their home games. I am a little confused on where they play their Playoff games when Valley is in the mix, I'm sure it's a DMS, but not sure which one. I would guess East.
I believe the rumblings of another Catholic school in Ankeny is a k-8 school, correct?
To the point about Dowling or Valley not wanting to play one another for fear of the boys in Boone changing the system, that is a ridiculous reason to somehow sandbag your season. Neither coaching staff cares how the system is created. Just win, baby.
On the Dowling land/stadium questions, at one point, the diocese owned all the land between where the school is currently located and 73rd St to the east. The diocese sold that land off and it is now a number of office buildings, small retail and a YMCA. The "stadium" you see on the aerial is used for freshman and JV football and the DSM Parochial football league. In the recent past, Dowling has purchased land to its west for parking.
Dowling plays "home" games at Valley Stadium, unless they have a home game against Valley in the regular season and have played at Drake Stadium for that game in the past. When Dowling has a home playoff game and Valley is in the mix, the Maroons play at East's Williams Stadium. But, they have also played at Hoover's McGrange Stadium for home playoff games in the past when both Williams and Valley Stadiums were being used.
Thanks for the Stadium and School explanation. So travel must not be far from the School in any case?
Cedar Falls has the UNI Dome for now. They have not said if a Stadium will be built with the High School which will still be located behind the UNI Dome. The plans show one bring built, but it barely passed the vote for just the school.
I know the Sophs are playing less games in the UNI Dome, but at the old stadium at the High School.
I did a little more digging on the certified enrollment by district numbers from the state's education website. I am honestly shocked by some of what I found.
I took the total served enrollment numbers from the 2005-06 school year and compared them to the total served enrollment numbers from 2018-19 school year. And then I did an annual growth rate figure for those 13 years. Here's some interesting district total enrollment annual growth rate figures:
Waukee: 10.56%
Ankeny: 5.24%
Norwalk: 2.28%
Des Moines: 0.30%
SEP: 2.34%
Johnston: 2.85%
Urbandale: 1.27%
West Des Moines: 0.30%
Cedar Falls: 1.75%
Waterloo: 0.05%
Bettendorf: 0.66%
Davenport: -0.71%
Cedar Rapids: -0.70%
Linn Marr: 3.23%
Iowa City: 2.24%
I was shocked to see that the West Des Moines district total served enrollment figures grew annually between '05-'06 and '18-'19 by a mere 0.3%, while Waukee grew annually by 10.5%. And apart from the Iowa City and Linn Marr districts, the low (or negative) annual growth in the eastern side of the state is pretty evident in the numbers.
I took the total served enrollment numbers from the 2005-06 school year and compared them to the total served enrollment numbers from 2018-19 school year. And then I did an annual growth rate figure for those 13 years. Here's some interesting district total enrollment annual growth rate figures:
Waukee: 10.56%
Ankeny: 5.24%
Norwalk: 2.28%
Des Moines: 0.30%
SEP: 2.34%
Johnston: 2.85%
Urbandale: 1.27%
West Des Moines: 0.30%
Cedar Falls: 1.75%
Waterloo: 0.05%
Bettendorf: 0.66%
Davenport: -0.71%
Cedar Rapids: -0.70%
Linn Marr: 3.23%
Iowa City: 2.24%
I was shocked to see that the West Des Moines district total served enrollment figures grew annually between '05-'06 and '18-'19 by a mere 0.3%, while Waukee grew annually by 10.5%. And apart from the Iowa City and Linn Marr districts, the low (or negative) annual growth in the eastern side of the state is pretty evident in the numbers.
That is interesting because the Waterloo/Cedar Falls shows the exact thing in construction
It's interesting, now that I think about it, really no school comes close to Valley's potential talent pool. DM East and DM Lincoln are large, but they have an overall lower SES and as the DMPS has been arguing, many of the kids have to work and/or can't commit to sports/attend all the practices (not to mention special training camps, weight training, etc.) Additionally, although there are some great coaches in many different types of schools, wealthier schools and/or schools with greater reputations might create incentives for better/more experienced coaches to leave for pay better salaries or winning programs. Does anyone know which school might come close to Valley? We can look at the population of a school, but then we must realize also SES, community support, school tradition(s), etc. are relevant factors as well. If Ankeny only had one high school it would be close (as it is also growing very quickly), but we all know they have two schools now. Waukee is also moving to two schools. I mean, I am guessing there shouldn't be a legal ban against the size of a school (some high schools in Illinois are 4,000 or 5,000, and some in NY 7,0000), but it seems Valley is in a league of its own in the state of Iowa given all the factors, whereas it is interesting most other districts start thinking about another high school when a class gets to be beyond 400-500 kids per grade. People talk about parochial school's recruiting and having an advantage, which may have some relevance (even though as many say, they must recruit ALL their students, and the vast majority at the likes of Dowling and Xavier are from the k-8 parochial programs and/or at least participated in the Catholic football league(s) at younger ages-again, it is more about SES, community support of programs, etc.). Some have mentioned a potential 5A class, and it seems that is probably necessary in the state of Iowa, but it seems odd nobody really points out this massive advantage Valley has or at least I haven't really heard about it.
As others have said, I like the RPI system because it does seem that there has been a demographic shift of population and talent to the DM metro since 2000, and it is probably here to stay unless new demographic trends emerge. I mean, if we look at census data, Des Moines has added almost 200-300,000 people in the past 10-12 years, which is the size of the entire Cedar Rapids metro area, and is now surpassing 700,000 and will keep growing rapidly (compared to other metros) if trends continue. I think many metro teams (like SEP, Waukee, Johnston who might lose to Dowling or Valley by a touchdown in the regular season or playoffs) feel stifled by Dowling/Valley/Ankeny only to see them beat east side teams by quite a bit in the past 10-15 years, and given the breakup of IC schools, and apparently Cedar Falls soon as one commentator mentioned, as well as the Bett/PV split, those are rough trends for the east side of the state on a demographic scale alone.
As others have said, I like the RPI system because it does seem that there has been a demographic shift of population and talent to the DM metro since 2000, and it is probably here to stay unless new demographic trends emerge. I mean, if we look at census data, Des Moines has added almost 200-300,000 people in the past 10-12 years, which is the size of the entire Cedar Rapids metro area, and is now surpassing 700,000 and will keep growing rapidly (compared to other metros) if trends continue. I think many metro teams (like SEP, Waukee, Johnston who might lose to Dowling or Valley by a touchdown in the regular season or playoffs) feel stifled by Dowling/Valley/Ankeny only to see them beat east side teams by quite a bit in the past 10-15 years, and given the breakup of IC schools, and apparently Cedar Falls soon as one commentator mentioned, as well as the Bett/PV split, those are rough trends for the east side of the state on a demographic scale alone.
Interesting data, but part of the reason WDM, or any large district (or country GDP growth percentage for that matter) has lower growth is because it is already so big, and then it is somewhat now surrounded by Waukee and to some extent Urbandale and a few others. Waukee is booming, but again, they are already going for two high schools.
I don't think Cedar Falls will ever have two high schools, their 20yr plan does not include one.
Cedar Falls has always competed well against the West in fact they have a remarkable overall record.
The biggest Dowling win was 43-0 back in 1975, Cedar Falls biggest win was 1989 31-7. Valley biggest win was in 2008 27-8, CF has never beaten Valley by more than 4pts.
When the MVC ended, Cedar Falls had the Winningest Record of all the teams by about 20 wins, followed by IC High. However CF just couldn't get a win on the title game like IC High and IC West.
CF has had only 6 losing seasons since 1954 and the last losing season was in 1996.
When Price Lab closed in 2011, Cedar Falls didn't really gain many athletes like you would have thought, however they are seeing them now.
When the High School is built up by UNI, this is a added bonus and a working relationship with UNI that it never really had before.
I think Cedar Falls will not be hurt by the shift in Demographics, because if they don't build in Waterloo, they will build it in Cedar Falls.
Cedar Falls has always adjusted well to a new conference or district. It took awhile for them to beat IC High, IC West and Bettendorf. Now they just have to overcome Bettendorf in the Playoffs.
Next season in the East I can't think of any team but Cedar Falls that will have a jump on the rest of that part of the state.
They just need another Carl Loecher to come along
The Waukee district has 1,900 more total enrollment served than the West Des Moines school district and the Ankeny district serves 2,800 more. Waukee and Ankeny have simply outgrown West Des Moines. They've grown faster and bigger than WDM. There could be room to grow, a portion of the West Des Moines district abuts the Winterset school district (just west of Cumming). But, I cannot think of major growth down in that portion of the city.
Having seen this data, I can now see why West Des Moines has not moved forward with building a second full* high school (freshman school notwithstanding). It is just not growing in a way that would necessitate a new high school.
On another note, I don't think it is too terribly long before we see Norwalk and Bondurant in a 4A conversation.
Great point, but at the same time, Valley has been big for a long time, and when their classes reached 400-500ish per grade, they didn't decide to create another high school, despite the growth that continued throughout the 80's and 90s and 00s in WDM and Clive, whereas Ankeny and Waukee, although they are growing faster, have already committed to two smaller high schools, neither of which will be the size of Valley anytime soon, or again, perhaps they will create a third high school in those regions to not go past 2000ish or so? It seems sometimes parents want smaller schools because it can create more personal attention or a stronger community feel, whereas one would imagine those that care more about sports would want a high school as big as possible, as in Illinois Adlai Stevenson and New Trier are almost 5000.
Valley is a huge school, not doubt about it. But with WDM just not growing the way Waukee and Ankeny are growing as cities, I do not see Valley ever splitting up. It will remain a huge high school with other cities growing so big, so quickly that it makes sense for those school districts to split but the lack of growth in WDM just does not dictate needing another high school. And Valley High School will not remain that size with WDM not growing. Populations that don't grow, age. And that doesn't really mean more high school aged students.
Just to clarify, Valley does not draw from all of WDM or Clive.
The cities of West Des Moines and Clive straddle the county line and WDM Valley only draws from the Polk side. Everyone on the Dallas County side goes to Waukee schools. In WDM, everything west of 60th Street is in the Waukee School district so there are roughly 25,000 WDM City residents on the Waukee side and 45,000 on the Valley side. The City of Clive has similar same distribution -- some go to Valley and some go to Waukee.
The "Waukee" school district is not really the most appropriate name -- it should maybe be called the "Southeast Dallas" school district because it draws students from Waukee, West Des Moines, Clive, and Urbandale. Here is their map:
https://educateiowa.gov/sites/files/ed/documents/FY20_WAUKEE.pdf
I believe open enrollment is allowed throughout the state. Districts can deny open-enrollment into their district, for capacity/overcrowding reasons, but they can’t deny a request to open-enroll out of their district.
Thank you for the clarification SpinningBird, I did not realize that, so in reality, although Valley has a relatively large population base, it isn't quite as large as I thought.
All good points, but as I remember it, Southwoods was built to eventually be a second high school, and Valley has nearly 3000 students (including Southwoods of course as it is the freshmen school), but at some point, perhaps because of the demographic trend, decided to keep one large high school, but at the same time, at some point they decided that instead of two 1500 schools, they would keep one big school, whereas the other districts (Waukee, Ankeny, and now IC) seem to not want to go beyond the 2,000 student mark for a school. So even though WDM isn't currently growing as fast as the other cities, it did have the same opportunity these schools currently have around the turn of the century, but decided against it. I wonder to what extent sports/extracurriculars played a role in that decision? If so, again, we would see with WDM what we see in Ankeny-two really good schools, but not a megalarge dominant school
Well, it looks like it is finally happening-Dowling vs. Valley Final. When I first saw that Valley game I was convinced they would win the title no matter what-they looked so dominant tonight, but then I saw Dowling beat Kennedy so handily. So what do we think-is it a toss up, or what are the major factors at play? It seems both teams have outstanding running backs and strong defenses, but Dowling really can capitalize on mistakes and the Valley QB was overthrowing all night.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
I didn't get to see any of the Dowling game, I was not shocked of the Valley game. I thought the score would be close to what it was, I was not sure how Valley would do it.
The Valley QB from what I see. Was missing some East throws, I'm sure the Valley staff will correct that.
Dowlings win was far more impressive just for the fact that Kennedy was steam rolling everyone of late and I thought would give Dowling more than they wanted, not the case.
With that being said you just watched two Western teams destroy two Eastern teams.
So the only thing you have to go on for the finals is the History of Valley/Dowling series.
If you are Valley you do not want to be part of a impressive Dowling Championship streak.
If you are Dowling and the streak does end this year, I guess you are going to lose. Then who better to have it end to then Valley
Yes, both schools have a lot at stake-Dowling wants to keep its dynasty and Valley, its rival, sees an opportunity to stop it and it seems to finally have the mix of talent to give Dowling a good challenge in the post-season. However, as someone who has followed Dowling/Valley my whole life, it is true many of us have wanted this championship to happen for a long time and felt Dowling/Valley/Ankeny and possibly other metros have been a bit above the eastern side of the state the last 15 years. Additionally, when it comes to Dowling/Valley in particular, there is a lot of unpredictability when they play as the school's are rivals (literally 1.5 miles apart), the kids are friends with each other and sometimes have grown up with each other to an extent, and the tension/nerves can rise for both teams, not to mention it is the championship, so I see a low scoring, intense game. Additionally, they have both studied each other and know each others strengths and weaknesses so well.
Dowling has made itself comfortable in the dome, but again, Valleys two RBs looked just as good as Dowling's, although I think Dowling has a slight advantage in QB as he has been reliable and on point all year. Both have incredible defenses, so although they both have crazy strong offense(s), they are probably the two best defenses in the state as well. Valley (and to some extent Ankeny C) are also the only teams that don't seem to get intimidated by Dowling.
All in all, I am going to call it Dowling 17-13 or something like that, but it could easily go the other way. The dynasty has to end at some point, but what Dowling has already achieved is the greatest dynasty in the history of Iowa football as it has been 6 years of dominance at the 4a level and 9 4a championships in this century. If they win again, they will literally have won 50% of the football state championships in 4a this century, and again, as many have stated, there is a need to create a 5a class.
Lastly, it is time Dowling and Valley also start scheduling out of state games against the best teams in the Chicago and Kansas City areas so they can start cracking the top 100 schools in the country as it seems they have the ability to at least hang with the best of the best. As a guy who has been able to see some of the top Illinois teams (that are in the top 100 in the country) play, Dowling and Valley would give them trouble.
Anyways, other thoughts or predictions about Dowling and Valley?
I think you’re on with a close game....
After watching them all year I don’t know who has the advantage at each position set.
Offensive line - both are huge and physical.
Defensive line - both do their jobs and keep opposing offensive lineman off their LBs
Linebackers - This is where I believe I will give an edge to Valley. Both sets are outstanding.
Defensive Secondary - Another wash. Both seem to not give up big plays which is vital.
QB- Tough one here. Very tough. I’m gonna call it a wash.
Receivers - I would say Valley has a slight advantage here. Multiple targets who can bust open a big play.
Running Backs - This is tough. Dowling has Williams/Johnson and Valley has Mitchell and Williams. I think it’s safe to say that Gavin Williams is better than the rest, but I do believe Mitchell and Jayden Williams are 2/3, but Johnson is an absolute stud too. The advantage goes to Dowling here.
Overall - I believe I say the advantage at positions goes to Valley, it’s by the smallest of margins.
I can’t bet against Dowling. Dowling wins their 7th in a row, 24-21.
After watching them all year I don’t know who has the advantage at each position set.
Offensive line - both are huge and physical.
Defensive line - both do their jobs and keep opposing offensive lineman off their LBs
Linebackers - This is where I believe I will give an edge to Valley. Both sets are outstanding.
Defensive Secondary - Another wash. Both seem to not give up big plays which is vital.
QB- Tough one here. Very tough. I’m gonna call it a wash.
Receivers - I would say Valley has a slight advantage here. Multiple targets who can bust open a big play.
Running Backs - This is tough. Dowling has Williams/Johnson and Valley has Mitchell and Williams. I think it’s safe to say that Gavin Williams is better than the rest, but I do believe Mitchell and Jayden Williams are 2/3, but Johnson is an absolute stud too. The advantage goes to Dowling here.
Overall - I believe I say the advantage at positions goes to Valley, it’s by the smallest of margins.
I can’t bet against Dowling. Dowling wins their 7th in a row, 24-21.
I will agree that Valley and Dowling are head and shoulders above the East. Centennial, Ankeny, Waukee and SE Polk are not as consistent as Cedar Falls, Bettendorf year in and out so I would place Those two teams behind Dowling/Valley
You have two legendary Coaches that will be going at it, neither will have an advantage over the other.
This will come down to which Coach will get the right players in the right place at the right time..
That being said Valley had the right players in the right spot and did not complete the easy passes.
I don't think they can afford to do this against Dowling
This will come down to which Coach will get the right players in the right place at the right time..
That being said Valley had the right players in the right spot and did not complete the easy passes.
I don't think they can afford to do this against Dowling
This year I’d agree they’re the pick of the litter but then again shouldn’t they be every year?
Valley's back up RB was amazing last night-does anyone know what grade he is in? If he is coming back next year, he will be explosive. I hadn't heard much about him since Creighton Mitchell gets more attention, but he played really well. Again, I initially thought Dowling had the RB advantage, and arguable with their QB they have another runner, but this new Valley RB is for real
I say this regularly and I will say this in response to several tweets I saw last night and messages on here of "shouldn't they be every year?"
You can't on one hand talk about how Dowling never won a state title before 2000 and then say "well the state has to do something about private schools." Where was this talk when Dowling didn't make the playoffs in 2002 or 2003? Or when Dowling didn't make a title game between 2001 and 2010?
Dowling didn't suddenly become private. These arguments seem hollow when they can only be applied while cherry picking ebbs and flows of the football program.
You can't on one hand talk about how Dowling never won a state title before 2000 and then say "well the state has to do something about private schools." Where was this talk when Dowling didn't make the playoffs in 2002 or 2003? Or when Dowling didn't make a title game between 2001 and 2010?
Dowling didn't suddenly become private. These arguments seem hollow when they can only be applied while cherry picking ebbs and flows of the football program.
Give me a break! For crying out loud, did Williams transfer to Dowling (or countless others over the past decade) to increase their devotion to the Blessed Sacrament? I wish it were so but just be honest, it’s the only Catholic HS in the greater DM area and happens to love it’s FB success...so just admit they fill the holes as needed, period! As for Valley, they have twice the enrollment of Cedar Falls, Bett or CRK, so congratulations for pasting the smaller schools. Yeah, I’m beyond fed up with the disparity which has been on display for the past decade, it’s high time for the serfs to rebel!
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