This my outlook for 3A. Just like always I do these to try and get a little conversation going. I think overall 3A should be very competitive with many teams that I could see winning the title.
Class 3A
District 1
Last Year’s Records
Humboldt 11-2
Algona 9-2
MOC FV 6-4
Heelan 6-4
Webster City 3-6
Sioux Center 1-8
Prediction
Reasoning: Overall I think you have to look at the two districts from last year that these teams were in and say that district 2 was the better district, so I think that is reflected a bit with these predictions. Algona might have won the title last year if the older Manske kid didn’t get hurt. However, his brother got a ton of experience, and with what they return around him I think they will be very solid. Heelan was in the title game two years ago and last year had some ups and downs with more youth, I do like the coaching staff they have in place and think they will continue to be strong after a few down years. Humboldt I don’t know what to do with, the Matson kid was so important for them last year, but they do return quite a few pieces, and I don’t think that the fall off will be that great. Webster City was down last year, and I think this is the year to see how they will be after Coach Howard left, do they show the same or do they show growth and improvement. Sioux Center struggled last year, but they do have some pieces to build around, and traditionally they are very competitive. Finally, I don’t think that MOC will be that bad, just have too many questions for me, and I don’t know what to expect from them.
District 2
Last Year’s Records
Independence 8-3
Benton 7-3
Clear Lake 6-4
West Delaware 5-4
Charles City 3-6
Iowa Falls Alden 2-7 (2A)
Prediction
Reasoning: Clear Lake will have a few pieces to replace especially the Meyer and Schmitt kid, but overall I like what they bring back, and I feel like they are coming from a strong district than what they will be in this year. Benton in second because I think they know what they have more than Indee and WD behind them. Benton has been a very consistent program the last 5 or so years, and I see that continuing plus just like Clear Lake I think they were in a stronger district last year. Indee and West Delaware a close, and I think both can challenge Benton, I took Indee just because I think you look at the last 10 years they have actually been stronger then West Delaware and rebuild better. West Delaware relied so much on the Yonkovich kid that I am not sure what they are going to look like. Charles City does bring back a good back, but the last few years they have beaten up on the sisters of the poor in non district then gotten smashed when they got to district play. Finally, Iowa Falls really struggled last year in 2A, and I don’t see them competiting well in this district.
District 3
Last Year’s Records
Wahlert 13-0
Mount Vernon 10-2
Assumption 4-6
CPU 4-5
Central DeWitt 1-8
Maquoketa 1-8
Prediction
This is a district home to the state champ and a semifinalist, to me Mount Vernon just has more returning, especially in the passing game, I do think that they will have to grow up quickly up front, but the talent is there to win the district. Wahlert put it all together last year, and simply outlasted all of their competition, meaning they physically wore them down. They do have some pieces back, and I think they will be in the playoffs, but I like Mt. Vernon over them. Assumption and CPU are close, Assumption hasn’t been as strong the last few years, but they are always going to be competitive and well coached, I think Assumption over CPU just because I trust the pedigree there more. Finally Maquoketa and Central DeWitt to finish out the district, Maquoketa won last year, and returns about the same amount as DeWitt so I’ll take them in fifth.
District 4
Last Year’s Records
Solon 8-3
Washington 6-3
Mount Pleasant 4-5
Keokuk 3-6
Fairfield 2-7
Fort Madison 0-9
Prediction
Reasoning: I don’t think that there will be to much argument that Solon is the favorite for this district, even though they will be replacing quite a bit, they are one of the most consistent programs in the state, and are being put into a traditionally weak district with the 5 teams from SE Iowa. After Solon I think that it is kind of a toss up, with just about any team possibly getting to the two spot. I went with Fairfield, who played in the more difficult district last year, and struggled, but struggled with sophomores, if they grow and develop they can easily finish second. After that all of these teams graduate a ton of production. I went with Washington as they have probably been the most solid as a program over the last 15 years, other than when they hired the Ehert. Keokuk, Mt Pleasant and Fort Madison I think all should or could be close, I just went with how they finished last year.
District 5
Last Year’s Records
Nevada 8-3
Williamsburg 7-3
Winterset 5-4 (4A)
DSM Christian 4-5 (2A)
Knoxville 4-5
Saydel 1-8 (2A)
Prediction
Reasoning: Kind of an interesting mix of teams here. I know that Williamsburg lost quite a bit from last year, but until they are truly knock down I see them as a program that just reloads year after year. I will say I was concern with how they ended last year after they were my pick to win the title, then lost the last two games. Nevada and Winterset are right behind them and I could see either winning the district title as well. Nevada seems to have a few more pieces back and has had pretty good success the last decade. Winterset has some holes to fill, but all of their losses last year were close playing a pretty tough 4A schedule, I’ll be interested to see how the drop down helps them. Knoxville beats bad teams, especially in non district, then loses the games that counts, I think you see more of that, but I don’t know what to think of DSM Christian to move them ahead. DSM Christian is fast growing right now, I really don’t know what they have coming back to move them higher right now. Saydel, has struggled for as long as I can remember, I’m not exactly sure how to turn that around for them.
District 6
Last Year’s Records
Carroll 6-4
Harlan 6-4
Atlantic 6-4
Greene County 5-5 (2A)
Creston 4-5
Perry 2-7
Prediction
Reasoning: I think Harlan and Creston should be pretty close. I like what Harlan returns on defense is why I took them first, both teams will be well coached. Creston returns their qb and most of their line, but I’m not sure who is going to be the main ball carrier, and the defense loses most of it’s top tacklers. Carroll seems like the safest choice for third, they do lose quite a bit, but I think as a program they are better than Greene County. Greene County is a move up, that has quite a bit to replace, but does have some pieces to build around. Atlantic was very senior heavy last year, and always seems to beat poor teams and lose to average to good teams. Finally, Perry is still going to be in a rough spot.
Top 10
I put Algona at #1, because I like the core they bring back, and the younger Manske getting thrown into the fire last year may be a blessing for this year. I do think however the top 5 are all going to be close. Mount Vernon brings back their passing game, although their line will need to improve. Solon loses a lot, but is always going to be strong. Clear Lake brings back more, but seems to struggle in the playoffs more than the other teams. Finally, I think Williamsburg has the most unknows of the top 5, but again they are always good and I don’t see that changing. I think Wahlert takes a step back, but winning the state title will do a lot of good for the consistency of that program. Harlan has been there before and I think they have the pieces to get to the dome. Benton is always close, but never seems to finish the deal. Heelan has a agood core to have a successful season. Finally, Nevada has been a solid program for a while and I think is deserving of a ranking.
Playoffs if my predictions are correct (doing my best to figure out the 4 wildcards)
Algona vs Independence
Harlan vs Heelan
Mount Vernon vs Fairfield
Benton vs Nevada
Solon vs Winterset
Wahlert vs West Delaware
Clear Lake vs Humboldt
Williamsburg vs Creston
Class 3A
District 1
Last Year’s Records
Humboldt 11-2
Algona 9-2
MOC FV 6-4
Heelan 6-4
Webster City 3-6
Sioux Center 1-8
Prediction
- Algona
- Heelan
- Humboldt
- Webster City
- Sioux Center
- MOC FV
Reasoning: Overall I think you have to look at the two districts from last year that these teams were in and say that district 2 was the better district, so I think that is reflected a bit with these predictions. Algona might have won the title last year if the older Manske kid didn’t get hurt. However, his brother got a ton of experience, and with what they return around him I think they will be very solid. Heelan was in the title game two years ago and last year had some ups and downs with more youth, I do like the coaching staff they have in place and think they will continue to be strong after a few down years. Humboldt I don’t know what to do with, the Matson kid was so important for them last year, but they do return quite a few pieces, and I don’t think that the fall off will be that great. Webster City was down last year, and I think this is the year to see how they will be after Coach Howard left, do they show the same or do they show growth and improvement. Sioux Center struggled last year, but they do have some pieces to build around, and traditionally they are very competitive. Finally, I don’t think that MOC will be that bad, just have too many questions for me, and I don’t know what to expect from them.
District 2
Last Year’s Records
Independence 8-3
Benton 7-3
Clear Lake 6-4
West Delaware 5-4
Charles City 3-6
Iowa Falls Alden 2-7 (2A)
Prediction
- Clear Lake
- Benton
- Independence
- West Delaware
- Charles City
- Iowa Falls Alden
Reasoning: Clear Lake will have a few pieces to replace especially the Meyer and Schmitt kid, but overall I like what they bring back, and I feel like they are coming from a strong district than what they will be in this year. Benton in second because I think they know what they have more than Indee and WD behind them. Benton has been a very consistent program the last 5 or so years, and I see that continuing plus just like Clear Lake I think they were in a stronger district last year. Indee and West Delaware a close, and I think both can challenge Benton, I took Indee just because I think you look at the last 10 years they have actually been stronger then West Delaware and rebuild better. West Delaware relied so much on the Yonkovich kid that I am not sure what they are going to look like. Charles City does bring back a good back, but the last few years they have beaten up on the sisters of the poor in non district then gotten smashed when they got to district play. Finally, Iowa Falls really struggled last year in 2A, and I don’t see them competiting well in this district.
District 3
Last Year’s Records
Wahlert 13-0
Mount Vernon 10-2
Assumption 4-6
CPU 4-5
Central DeWitt 1-8
Maquoketa 1-8
Prediction
- Mount Vernon
- Wahlert
- Assumption
- CPU
- Maquoketa
- Central DeWitt
This is a district home to the state champ and a semifinalist, to me Mount Vernon just has more returning, especially in the passing game, I do think that they will have to grow up quickly up front, but the talent is there to win the district. Wahlert put it all together last year, and simply outlasted all of their competition, meaning they physically wore them down. They do have some pieces back, and I think they will be in the playoffs, but I like Mt. Vernon over them. Assumption and CPU are close, Assumption hasn’t been as strong the last few years, but they are always going to be competitive and well coached, I think Assumption over CPU just because I trust the pedigree there more. Finally Maquoketa and Central DeWitt to finish out the district, Maquoketa won last year, and returns about the same amount as DeWitt so I’ll take them in fifth.
District 4
Last Year’s Records
Solon 8-3
Washington 6-3
Mount Pleasant 4-5
Keokuk 3-6
Fairfield 2-7
Fort Madison 0-9
Prediction
- Solon
- Fairfield
- Washington
- Keokuk
- Mount Pleasant
- Fort Madison
Reasoning: I don’t think that there will be to much argument that Solon is the favorite for this district, even though they will be replacing quite a bit, they are one of the most consistent programs in the state, and are being put into a traditionally weak district with the 5 teams from SE Iowa. After Solon I think that it is kind of a toss up, with just about any team possibly getting to the two spot. I went with Fairfield, who played in the more difficult district last year, and struggled, but struggled with sophomores, if they grow and develop they can easily finish second. After that all of these teams graduate a ton of production. I went with Washington as they have probably been the most solid as a program over the last 15 years, other than when they hired the Ehert. Keokuk, Mt Pleasant and Fort Madison I think all should or could be close, I just went with how they finished last year.
District 5
Last Year’s Records
Nevada 8-3
Williamsburg 7-3
Winterset 5-4 (4A)
DSM Christian 4-5 (2A)
Knoxville 4-5
Saydel 1-8 (2A)
Prediction
- Williamsburg
- Nevada
- Winterset
- Knoxville
- DSM Christian
- Saydel
Reasoning: Kind of an interesting mix of teams here. I know that Williamsburg lost quite a bit from last year, but until they are truly knock down I see them as a program that just reloads year after year. I will say I was concern with how they ended last year after they were my pick to win the title, then lost the last two games. Nevada and Winterset are right behind them and I could see either winning the district title as well. Nevada seems to have a few more pieces back and has had pretty good success the last decade. Winterset has some holes to fill, but all of their losses last year were close playing a pretty tough 4A schedule, I’ll be interested to see how the drop down helps them. Knoxville beats bad teams, especially in non district, then loses the games that counts, I think you see more of that, but I don’t know what to think of DSM Christian to move them ahead. DSM Christian is fast growing right now, I really don’t know what they have coming back to move them higher right now. Saydel, has struggled for as long as I can remember, I’m not exactly sure how to turn that around for them.
District 6
Last Year’s Records
Carroll 6-4
Harlan 6-4
Atlantic 6-4
Greene County 5-5 (2A)
Creston 4-5
Perry 2-7
Prediction
- Harlan
- Creston
- Carroll
- Greene County
- Atlantic
- Perry
Reasoning: I think Harlan and Creston should be pretty close. I like what Harlan returns on defense is why I took them first, both teams will be well coached. Creston returns their qb and most of their line, but I’m not sure who is going to be the main ball carrier, and the defense loses most of it’s top tacklers. Carroll seems like the safest choice for third, they do lose quite a bit, but I think as a program they are better than Greene County. Greene County is a move up, that has quite a bit to replace, but does have some pieces to build around. Atlantic was very senior heavy last year, and always seems to beat poor teams and lose to average to good teams. Finally, Perry is still going to be in a rough spot.
Top 10
- Algona
- Mount Vernon
- Solon
- Clear Lake
- Williamsburg
- Wahlert
- Harlan
- Benton
- Heelan
- Nevada
I put Algona at #1, because I like the core they bring back, and the younger Manske getting thrown into the fire last year may be a blessing for this year. I do think however the top 5 are all going to be close. Mount Vernon brings back their passing game, although their line will need to improve. Solon loses a lot, but is always going to be strong. Clear Lake brings back more, but seems to struggle in the playoffs more than the other teams. Finally, I think Williamsburg has the most unknows of the top 5, but again they are always good and I don’t see that changing. I think Wahlert takes a step back, but winning the state title will do a lot of good for the consistency of that program. Harlan has been there before and I think they have the pieces to get to the dome. Benton is always close, but never seems to finish the deal. Heelan has a agood core to have a successful season. Finally, Nevada has been a solid program for a while and I think is deserving of a ranking.
Playoffs if my predictions are correct (doing my best to figure out the 4 wildcards)
Algona vs Independence
Harlan vs Heelan
Mount Vernon vs Fairfield
Benton vs Nevada
Solon vs Winterset
Wahlert vs West Delaware
Clear Lake vs Humboldt
Williamsburg vs Creston
