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Class 4A Playoff Scenarios

KidSilverhair
Always imitated, never duplicated (because it takes way too much freakin' time), it's the 4A Playoff Scenario Guesser with two games to play!

As always, I make no guarantees as to the accuracy of my figuring, as I can always make mistakes or miss something. There are still plenty of tie scenarios in play - here's the state's method of breaking ties in 3A/4A:
  • A two-way tie for district champion, or for second place, will be determined by head-to-head results.
  • If there's a tie involving three or more teams for district champion, and one team defeated all of the others, that team is district champion and you go back to head-to-head to determine the second-place team.
  • If the teams in the tie for the district title all defeated each other, RPI is used to select the champion, then head-to-head is used to determine the second-place team.
  • In cases where head-to-head can't single out one champion or second-place team, RPI is used.
Since RPI can still change more than we might expect over the next two weeks, I make no guesses involving that, but you are welcome to make your own inferences. Got it? Onward!

(I do hope to put one of these together for Class 3A later this week if I find the time.)

4A-1
SPENCER wins the district with a victory. They are in at least a tie for a playoff spot unless they lose twice, Le Mars wins twice, and either Denison-Schleswig or Webster City wins twice.​
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WEBSTER CITY is almost certainly in with a victory over Denison-Schleswig in Week 9 (there are some tie scenarios if Spencer loses twice). They win the district with two wins plus two Spencer losses.​
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DENISON-SCHLESWIG is in the playoffs with two wins, winning the district if either Spencer or Webster City loses twice. A win over Webster City in Week 9 almost certainly gets them to at least a tie for a playoff spot (unless Fort Dodge wins twice).​
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FORT DODGE is in with two wins plus two Webster City losses. There are some other tie scenarios with two wins.​
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LE MARS must win two games, then have Webster City win twice and Denison-Schleswig lose twice (or the reverse, two D-S wins and two Webster City losses). There are a few other tie scenarios.​
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STORM LAKE has been eliminated.​
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4A-2
The winner of WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK and WESTERN DUBUQUE almost certainly takes the district. A Waverly-Shell Rock win guarantees them the title; a Western Dubuque win gets them the crown unless Mason City wins twice, which creates the possibility of a three-way tie. If Waverly Shell-Rock loses twice and Mason City wins twice, that's the only scenario where the Go-Hawks miss the playoffs.​
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WESTERN DUBUQUE is in with a victory over Mason City in Week 9. They earn a spot in a three-way tie even with two losses if Marion wins twice. Two losses plus a Marion loss eliminates Western Dubuque.​
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MASON CITY can win the district with two wins plus two Waverly-Shell Rock losses. They're guaranteed a spot with two wins plus two Western Dubuque losses, and get in a three-way tie if Western Dubuque beats Waverly-Shell Rock. They get second with two Western Dubuque losses, unless Marion wins twice, which creates a tie.​
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MARION can get themselves in a tie with two wins plus two Western Dubuque losses, but RPI would not be their friend.​
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WATERLOO EAST and DECORAH have been eliminated.​
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4A-3
LIBERTY wins the district by defeating Burlington. Liberty can win the district even with a loss to Burlington if they defeat Clinton plus a Burlington loss to Fort Madison. The only way they miss at least a tie for a playoff spot is with two losses plus two wins by either North Scott or Fort Madison.​
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BURLINGTON wins the district with two wins plus a North Scott loss. They are guaranteed at least a tie with a win plus two Liberty losses and a North Scott loss, or a win over Fort Madison plus two North Scott losses. There are several tie scenarios as well, mostly if both Burlington and North Scott go 2-0 or 1-1 in the last two weeks.​
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NORTH SCOTT wins the district with two wins plus two Liberty losses. They are almost certainly in with a win over Fort Madison (unless Burlington wins twice); a loss to Fort Madison means the best they can do is get in some tie scenarios.​
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FORT MADISON wins the district with two wins plus two Liberty losses. Two wins guarantees them a playoff spot. There are some tie scenarios with one win along with one win by both North Scott and Burlington.​
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CLINTON and MOUNT PLEASANT have been eliminated.​
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4A-4
XAVIER wins the district by defeating Newton. They also win the district with a win over Oskaloosa plus a Clear Creek Amana defeat of Newton in Week 9. Xavier is basically in with a win - there is a three-way tie scenario if both Newton and CR Washington win twice. The Saints are also in with two losses plus two Newton wins and a Washington loss, or a Newton loss plus a Clear Creek Amana loss and two losses by Washington. Xavier can only miss at least a tie for the playoffs with two losses plus two Washington wins.​
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NEWTON wins the district with two wins plus a Washington loss, or with two Xavier losses, two Washington losses, and a Clear Creek Amana loss. Newton finishes second with a loss to Xavier and a win over Clear Creek Amana plus two Washington losses, or a win over Xavier plus two Washington losses and a loss by Clear Creek Amana, or two Xavier losses plus two Washington wins. Some tie scenarios exist with one win plus two wins by either Pella or Clear Creek Amana.​
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CR WASHINGTON wins the district with two wins plus two Xavier losses. In almost all cases, one win plus losses by both Newton and Pella gets Washington into second place. There are some tie scenarios, all of which require two wins by Newton, Pella, or Clear Creek Amana.​
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PELLA has a chance to finish second with two wins plus two Newton losses. They can get in a tie with two wins plus a loss by Newton.​
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CLEAR CREEK AMANA has a shot at a playoff spot, but they must win twice and have Washington lose twice. A few tie scenarios exist if Xavier loses twice.​
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OSKALOOSA has been eliminated.​
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4A-5
This is a little bit less complicated with Perry forfeiting their final three games.​
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Since they now have an open date on Week 9, CARLISLE is guaranteed a playoff spot except for one scenario, and the win the district with a Norwalk loss. If Norwalk wins twice, Carlisle finishes second with an Indianola loss. If both Norwalk and Indianola win out, there's your tie.​
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NORWALK wins the district with two wins plus an Indianola loss. They finish second with a win over Bondurant-Farrar plus an Indianola loss.​
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INDIANOLA gets a playoff spot with two wins (if Norwalk wins twice, there's a tie for first). They also earn second place with a win over Bondurant-Farrar plus a Norwalk loss.​
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BONDURANT-FARRAR must win twice to reach the playoffs.​
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BOONE and (of course) PERRY have been eliminated.​
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4A-6
LEWIS CENTRAL is in the playoffs with a win (with one oddball exception). They win the district with a win over Dallas Center-Grimes plus a loss by Winterset. They can still win the district with a loss by defeating Winterset plus a Glenwood win over Dallas Center-Grimes. The exception is a win over Dallas Center-Grimes, a loss to Winterset, and both Winterset and Glenwood winning twice, which creates a tie that Lewis Central probably still wins with RPI. There are some scenarios that result in a playoff tie even with two losses.​
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DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES wins the district with two wins. They are in the playoffs with a win Week 9 plus two losses by either Glenwood or Winterset (unless Winterset wins twice). They also are in with a win over Lewis Central plus two wins by Glenwood and a loss by Winterset.​
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GLENWOOD wins the district with two wins plus two Lewis Central losses. They're guaranteed in with two wins, unless Winterset wins twice and Lewis Central once, which creates a tie. Glenwood can also get in with a win over Dallas Center-Grimes plus a Lewis Central win over Winterset.​
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WINTERSET can win the district with two wins plus a loss by either Glenwood or Dallas Center-Grimes. They take second with two wins plus two wins by either Glenwood or Dallas Center-Grimes - unless Glenwood wins twice and Dallas Center-Grimes loses twice, which means a tie.​
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There are quite a few tie scenarios if Dallas Center-Grimes, Glenwood, and Winterset all finish 1-1​
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DES MOINES HOOVER and COUNCIL BLUFFS THOMAS JEFFERSON have been eliminated.​
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Final Thoughts on 1A Pairings

C
Here’s my final guess on 1A first round pairings

East Sac (4) at West Sioux (1)
I-35 (4) at Underwood (1)
Ridgeview (4) at Van Meter (1)
South Hardin (4) at South Hamilton (1)
Sumner-Fred (4) at Sigourney-Keota (1)
Eagle Grove (4) at AP (1)
Pleasantville (4) at West Branch (1)
Durant (4) at MFL MarMac (1)

Treynor (3) at Western Christian (2)
Emmetsburg (3) at Kuemper (2)
WCV (3) at Woodward-Granger (2)
SSC (3) at ACGC (2)
Denver (3) at Wloo Columbus (2)
Cascade (3) at DNH (2)
Regina (3) at Pella Christian (2)
Central Decatur (3) at Mediapolis (2)

Tried my best to look at travel. Thoughts?
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Before placing your bets on tomorrow’s games….

Reasoned
What is the line on Pelosi vs Trump! LOL
www.breitbart.com

Watch — Pelosi on January 6: If He Comes to the Capitol, I'll Punch Trump and Happily Go to Jail

Thursday on CNN's "Anderson Cooper 360," during footage seen for the first time taken on January 6, 2021 by Alexandra Pelosi, her mother, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), said she would happily go to jail for punching President Donald Trump if he came to the Capitol. | Clips
www.breitbart.com www.breitbart.com
These people have literally, completely lost their minds!

A staff member said, “The Secret Service said they have dissuaded him from coming to Capitol Hill. They told him they don’t have the resources to protect him here. So at the moment, he is not coming, but that could change.”

Pelosi said, “I hope he comes. I want to punch him out.”

She added, “We’re waiting for this, for trespassing on the Capitol grounds. I want to punch him out, and I’m going to go to jail, and I’m going to be happy.”

thumbs_b_c_c497874938af259172163936de1de875.jpg
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District Power Rankings

P
I was looking at the power rankings on Varsity Bound and it got me thinking who were the best or toughest districts in the state. I did class A here, and will try to do the others if I have time.

Basically all I did was take the rankings of each of the members of the districts and added up the total number of the rankings, the lowest total was the best and the highest the worst.

1. District 3
Score: 139
They have by far the lowest total, and also the #1 ranked team. The lowest team in the district North Tama is at 35 which is relatively good, and also beat a playoff team from another district.

2. District 7
Score: 181
They have the #3 team and then two other teams in the top 16 which makes it the only district with 3 teams in the top 16. They do have a couple of teams in the 40s.

3. District 4
Score: 200
Two teams in the top 10 at 7 and 8, they are hurt by a the bottom teams in the district which are lower then some.

4. District 2
Score: 202
The #2 team is in this district and two other quality teams at #11 and #19, some might argue that STA at #19 is low. They are hurt by two teams in the 50s.

5. District 1
Score: 206
HMS leads the way at #10, they have two very good loses though, then a few in the middle of the pack and a few in the 40s.

6. District 5
Score: 208
Two top 10 teams at 6 and 9, then one at 20 and one in the 30s, but 3 teams in the 40s and 50s hurts this district.

7. District 8
Score: 215
Woodbury Central is at 4, and LoMa is at 16, but after that the computer doesn't really care for this district.

8. District 6
Score: 246
I do think Lynnville Sully is a quality team at number 5. However I question if they are battle tested enough. This district is very weak after them. Madrid the number 2 is at 22, which is quite low for a 5-2 team.
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Who knew and when did they know it?

Reasoned
Inquiring minds want to know….not that they will EVER be held accountable.
www.breitbart.com

Experts: China Started Hoarding PPE in 2019, Long Before Reporting Coronavirus

Public health experts told the U.K. Telegraph that customs data shows China hoarding personal protective equipment (PPE) in 2019.
www.breitbart.com www.breitbart.com
The experts claimed a sharp decline in exports of gowns, masks, gloves, and other critical supplies to protect health workers from infectious diseases out of China as early as August 2019, corresponding with a major increase in Chinese companies buying up stocks of the product from America — suggesting the Communist Party was stockpiling the supplies, expecting to need them.

“PPE exports to the US fell by around 50 per cent between August and September of 2019, in a significant drop which raised alarm bells at key US government agencies,” the Telegraph claimed. “China also started to buy up global PPE stocks in Europe, Australia and the US around the same time, experts said.”

The report echoed allegations made in the early months of 2020 by White House trade adviser Peter Navarro that China had “vacuumed up all the PPE, particularly the masks, the gloves, the goggles, in the world” between late December 2019 and late January 2020. Subsequent reports by agencies such as the Associated Press also accused China of greatly expanding imports of PPE while dramatically slowing down exports — only to later boast that it had become the PPE capital of the world.
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Week 8 Poll Roundup

KidSilverhair
We're getting down to the final games of the season, so let's see what the Des Moines Register, Cedar Rapids Gazette, Radio Iowa, and the AP have to say about who they think are the best football teams in the state. Once again, we start with the composite rankings (10 points for each first-place ranking, 9 for second, etc, etc).

Class 5A​
Class 4A​
Class 3A​
Class 2A​
1Pleasant Valley (38)Lewis Central (40)Harlan (39.5)Williamsburg (39)
2Dowling (36)Xavier (35)Humboldt (36.5)Central Lyon (37)
3Ankeny (33)Waverly-Shell Rock (33)Mt. Vernon (32)West Marshall (30.5)
4Southeast Polk (29)Carlisle (27)Independence (27)Spirit Lake (29.5)
5Cedar Falls (22)IC Liberty (25)T: ADM (22)OABCIG (24)
6CR Kennedy (21.5)Bondurant-Farrar (19)T: Nevada (22)Greene County (17.5)
7Urbandale (13.5)North Scott (14.5)Solon (17)West Lyon (17)
8CR Prairie (10)Indianola (10.5)North Polk (11)Osage (13)
9Waukee NW (9)Spencer (10)Creston (9)New Hampton (8.5)
10WDM Valley (5)Western Dubuque (4)T: Benton (1.5)Crestwood (2)
T: MOC Floyd Valley (1.5)
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NW IA Conferences

I
Looks like another potential round of realignment is coming.

George-Little Rock, easily the smallest school in the Siouxland, has applied to join the War Eagle in '23-'24.

That leaves the Siouxland with 9 teams. They've been consistent in saying 10 is the preferred/max number. Unity and Western applications are already on file.
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