As (kinda) promised, it's the 3A Playoff Scenario Guesser with two games to play!
As always, I make no guarantees as to the accuracy of my figuring, as I can always make mistakes or miss something. There are still plenty of tie scenarios in play - here's the state's method of breaking ties in 3A/4A:
- A two-way tie for district champion, or for second place, will be determined by head-to-head results.
- If there's a tie involving three or more teams for district champion, and one team defeated all of the others, that team is district champion and you go back to head-to-head to determine the second-place team.
- If the teams in the tie for the district title all defeated each other, RPI is used to select the champion, then head-to-head is used to determine the second-place team.
- In cases where head-to-head can't single out one champion or second-place team, RPI is used.
Since RPI can still change more than we might expect over the next two weeks, I make no guesses involving that, but you are welcome to make your own inferences.
3A-1
BISHOP HEELAN is in the playoffs with two wins, and can win the district with two wins plus a Sioux Center loss, or a win over Sergeant Bluff-Luton plus two Sioux Center losses. They're in at least a tie for a playoff spot with a win over Sergeant Bluff-Luton plus an MOC-Floyd Valley loss. They still get second place with one win, but that requires two SBL wins, two Sioux Center losses, and losses by both Carroll and MOC-Floyd Valley. Tie possibilities exist, but Heelan would be eliminated with two losses.
SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON is in with two wins, and wins the district with two wins plus an MOC-Floyd Valley loss. A win over Heelan plus a Heelan win over BHRV means a tie at worst - in fact, the only way a win over Heelan doesn't mean at least a tie involves two losses by Sioux Center or two wins by Sioux Center plus an MOC-Floyd Valley win. Losing to Heelan is very damaging; SBL can still get second with a win plus two MOC-Floyd Valley losses, but otherwise there's only a few tie possibilities.
SIOUX CENTER is in with two wins, and wins the district with two wins plus a Sergeant Bluff-Luton loss. They finish second with a win, two MOC-Floyd Valley wins, and two SBL losses. A few tie scenarios exist, but almost all of them require a win over MOC-Floyd Valley in Week 9.
MOC-FLOYD VALLEY is in with two wins, and takes the district with two wins plus a Heelan loss. One win gets them into a least a tie situation in most cases.
There's one scenario for CARROLL to win the district: two wins, plus two losses by both Heelan and MOC-Floyd Valley. They can finish second with two wins plus two losses by both Heelan and Sioux Center, or two wins plus two Heelan wins and two MOC-Floyd Valley losses. Even two wins won't get them into a tie if Sioux Center loses twice.
BOYDEN-HULL/ROCK VALLEY has been eliminated.
3A-2
This week's Humboldt-Nevada game probably determines the champion.
HUMBOLDT wins the district with a victory Friday. They'll finish second with a loss plus a win over Algona, unless North Polk wins twice (that creates a tie). They can still get a playoff spot with two losses plus losses by both Algona and North Polk - there are some ties with two Algona wins and a North Polk loss.
NEVADA is in the playoffs with a win (although there is one tie scenario). A win over Humboldt plus a North Polk loss wins the district. The tie scenario happens with a Nevada win over Humboldt plus two North Polk wins plus a Humboldt win over Algona.
NORTH POLK can win the district with two wins plus two Humboldt losses; they're in the playoffs for sure with two wins (except for that tie scenario above). A win over Nevada almost guarantees a playoff spot - they could only miss out if Humboldt loses twice plus an Algona loss, or if Nevada beats Humboldt and Humboldt beats Algona.
ALGONA needs two wins plus a Nevada win Friday to have a chance; they are in with two wins plus two Nevada wins.
BALLARD and GILBERT have been eliminated.
3A-3
Another huge game Friday with West Delaware vs. Independence.
WEST DELAWARE wins the district by defeating Independence. They are in the playoffs with two Independence wins. A loss to Independence plus a CPU loss still gets them in; they can only miss even a tie opportunity with two losses plus two CPU wins.
Independence wins the district with two wins, and are in the playoffs with a win plus a CPU loss (two CPU wins mean a tie). If Hampton-Dumont-CAL wins twice, Indee still gets in a tie with two losses.
CENTER POINT-URBANA can win the district with two wins plus two West Delaware losses. They are in the playoffs with a win plus two Independence losses (unless Hampton-Dumont wins twice, that's a tie). They can also reach a tie with two wins plus an Independence win Friday.
HAMPTON-DUMONT-CAL can get into a tie with two wins plus two Independence losses, but RPI probably won't be helpful.
CHARLES CITY and SOUTH TAMA have been eliminated.
3A-4
The Week 9 Central DeWitt-Benton contest looks like essentially a playoff elimination game.
MOUNT VERNON is in with a win, and wins the district by defeating Central DeWitt Friday. They can also win the district with a loss Friday if Benton defeats Central DeWitt in Week 9. Even with two losses the Mustangs are in with losses by both Benton and Vinton-Shellsburg, and there are tie possibilities - the only way they can miss the playoffs totally is two wins by both Central DeWitt and Vinton-Shellsburg, or one weird scenario that involves two wins by Benton plus Assumption defeating Vinton-Shellsburg while losing to Maquoketa.
CENTRAL DeWITT wins the district with two wins. They're almost certainly in if they defeat Benton Week 9; a loss to Benton almost certainly eliminates them unless Mount Vernon loses twice.
BENTON wins the district with two wins plus two Mount Vernon losses. They're pretty much guaranteed in the playoffs with a win over Central DeWitt Week 9, unless Mount Vernon loses twice.
DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION needs two wins and some help; two wins plus two Benton losses and a Central DeWitt loss gets them in the playoffs, but otherwise it's only tie situations.
VINTON-SHELLSBURG has a shot with two wins, earning second place if Central DeWitt wins twice, and a few tie possibilities if Mount Vernon loses twice.
MAQUOKETA has been eliminated.
3A-5
Solon-Grinnell Friday is a big one.
SOLON wins the district with a win over Grinnell. They are in the playoffs unless Fairfield wins twice (two Fairfield wins plus two Solon losses eliminates Solon; two Fairfield wins plus a win by both Solon and Grinnell creates a tie).
GRINNELL wins the district by defeating Solon (unless Fairfield wins twice; that plus a Solon win Week 9 makes a tie, a Solon loss gives Grinnell second place). Grinnell is guaranteed in the playoffs with a win over Fairfield Week 9.
FAIRFIELD wins the district with two wins plus two Solon losses. Two wins guarantee them a playoff spot unless Grinnell defeats Solon (that's the three-way tie). Two Grinnell losses also get Fairfield into the playoffs (unless Washington wins twice to force a tie).
WASHINGTON can get in a tie with two wins plus two Grinnell losses, but I don't think RPI is going to get them in.
WEST BURLINGTON/NOTRE DAME and KEOKUK have been eliminated.
3A-6
A HARLAN win over Creston gives them the district title. They also can take the championship with a win over Knoxville plus a Creston loss to Atlantic. The only complication for Harlan with one win is if Atlantic wins twice, which creates a tie that Harlan still almost certainly wins. Harlan still is assured a playoff spot with two losses if Creston wins twice and ADM defeats Knoxville; there are some other two-loss tie scenarios that all require a Creston loss.
CRESTON wins the district with two wins plus an ADM loss; two wins plus two ADM wins gives Creston at worst a tie situation. They can also win the district with a win over Harlan plus two wins by Saydel and Knoxville (talk about your unusual situations). They almost certainly get in with a win plus two ADM losses and an Atlantic loss (although there are some tie scenarios should Harlan lose twice).
ADM can win the district with two wins plus two Harlan losses. They are guaranteed a playoff spot with two wins plus a Creston loss (two Creston wins plus a Harlan win create a tie). They are also in with a win plus a Creston loss (unless Knoxville wins twice, which causes complications, or Harlan loses twice, which creates ties).
KNOXVILLE can get in the playoffs with two wins plus losses by either ADM or Atlantic, plus either two wins or two losses by Creston. There are a few tie situations, too.
ATLANTIC has a shot – two wins plus two ADM losses get them in the playoffs. Two wins plus either two wins by Knoxville or two losses by Harlan creates a tie.
There is a situation where Harlan can win the district with a five-way tie for second: Harlan and Saydel win out, Creston and ADM lose out. That’s SAYDEL’s only chance at a tie, but they aren’t going to win a five-way tie on RPI.
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