Playoff Prediction Thread

[usfhawk]

**All predictions were made using BCMoore's predictions for the final two weeks. "IF" BCMoore's predictions are correct this is what the playoffs will look like.

D1.)

Western Christian ----- 7-0
Hinton ------------------ 6-1
West Lyon -------------- 5-2
Okoboji ----------------- 3-4

D2.)

Denver ------------------ 7-0
South Winn ------------- 6-1
Lake Mills -------------- 5-2
Belmond Klemme ----- 4-3

D3.)

Bellevue ---------------- 7-0
Clayton Ridge --------- 6-1
West Branch ----------- 5-2
Tipton ------------------ 4-3

D4.)

Regina ----------------- 7-0
Wilton ------------------ 6-1
Sig Keota -------------- 5-2
Riverside -------------- 4-3

D5.)

Pella Christian -------- 7-0
Pleasantville ---------- 6-1
Mount Ayr ------------- 4-3
I-35 -------------------- 3-4

D6.)

Van Meter ------------- 7-0
Madrid ----------------- 6-1
Panorama ------------- 5-2
South Hamilton ------- 4-3

D7.)

LOMA ------------------ 7-0
AHST ------------------- 6-1
Missouri Valley --------- 4-3
IKM Manning ---------- 4-3

District Champs/Runner Ups (14)

Western Christian
Hinton
Denver
South Winn
Bellevue
Clayton Ridge
Regina
Wilton
Pella Christian
Pleasantville
Van Meter
Madrid
LOMA
AHST

AT-LARGE CRITERIA

- 3/4 way tie for district title.
- District 6 has the only legitimate chance at a 3 way tie. Van Meter/Madrid/Panorama
- A Van Meter win Friday would change that.
- District Record
- Using BCMoore's predictions for the last two weeks 5 teams would finish 5-2
- West Lyon/Lake Mills/West Branch/Sig Keota/Panorama
- Head to Head Competition
- Among the 5 teams above there are no common opponents.
- Point Differential
- Again, using the predict spreads on BCMoore, these would be the point differentials.
- Assuming it is district games only and that BCMoore is right on (doubtful)

1.) West Lyon --- 71
2.) Sig Keota --- 64
3.) Panorama --- 51
4.) West Branch --- 49
5.) Lake Mills --- 15

AT-LARGE TEAMS

1.) West Lyon
2.) Sigourney Keota


Alot can/will change in the last two weeks, but this may give you an idea of what to look for.

 

[VanderHoops]

Nice research.
So West Lyon really needs the favorites to win state-wide.
WL not making the post-season would have to be one of the biggest victims of the new playoff system.

Van Meter @ Panorama this week will have a lot of people interested.

 

[Scoreinisntborin]

To me locks for the playoff are

D-1 Western Christian, Hinton and West Lyon (at-large)
D-2 Denver
D-3 Bellevue
D-4 Regina
D-5 Pella Christian
D-6 Madrid
D-7 Logan-Magnolia

In with win
D-2 Week 8 winner between South Winn and Lake Mills
D-3 Week 9 winner between Clayton Ridge and West Branch
D-4 Wilton is in if they beat Sig-Keota week 9
D-5 Pleasantville is in with win week 8
D-6 Van Meter is in if they beat Panorama week 8
D-7 AHSTW is in with win week 8 or 9

My district winners and runner ups

D-1 Western Christian champion
Hinton runner up
D-2 Denver champion
South Winn runner up
D-3 Bellevue Champion
West Branch runner up
D-4 Regina champion
Wilton runner up
D-5 Pella Christian champion
Pleasantville runner up
D-6 Van Meter champion
Madrid runner up
D-7 Logan-Magnolia champion
AHSTW runner up

At-Large
West Lyon
Sig-Keota

Playoff Match-ups

West Lyon @ Logan Magnolia
Hinton @ Western Christian
AHSTW @ Van Meter
Madrid @ Pleasantville
Sig-Keota @ Pella Christian
Wilton @ Bellevue
West Branch @ Denver
South Winn @ Regina

 

[VanderHoops]

...Playoff Match-ups

West Lyon @ Logan Magnolia
Hinton @ Western Christian
AHSTW @ Van Meter
Madrid @ Pleasantville
Sig-Keota @ Pella Christian
Wilton @ Bellevue
West Branch @ Denver
South Winn @ Regina

I think the new playoff rules stated that #2 @ #1 of same district would not be an option.
So, although I don't want Western to see either of their district 1 foes, I'm guessing it might be
West Lyon @ Western
Hinton @ LoMa

 

[NWIAHawkfan]

Great research guys. I agree, with VanderHoops, I think West Lyon deserves a wild card and I don't want to be the team that has to play them, especially for a 2nd time. They are a dangerous team. It will be fun to see how this all shakes out over the next 2 weeks.

 

[atomic87]

It looks like West Lyon will be in good shape if they win their last two games by 17 pts each like they are favored to do. The second at-large bid may be determined by the difference in score between the Van Meter-Panorama and Wilton-Sigourney games. The winner of those games will likely be the district runner-up and whoever loses by fewer points would be in line for the at large bid.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

17 pt rule could play huge for West Branch. If the Bears were to win this week by 17+ (and I am not saying we will) it would be a very big boost for us even if we were to lose in Week 9.

I think a 9 or better differential is the magic number for the 2 at large teams.
I just want to take care of business this week and worry about the other crap come Saturday morning.

 

[Scoreinisntborin]

I think the new playoff rules stated that #2 @ #1 of same district would not be an option.
So, although I don't want Western to see either of their district 1 foes, I'm guessing it might be
West Lyon @ Western
Hinton @ LoMa

Yeah I missed that. Thanks for pointing that out

 

[brain2biceps]

Projection Update:
There will be NO three-way ties for first place among the seven Class 1A districts this season.

This means that both of the at-large spots will go to teams with TWO district losses ...

There are 21 teams remaining with two or fewer district losses ... 16 of these will make the playoffs (one has been eliminated, which leaves 20):

The SEVEN district champions (* means clinched):
1 - *Western Christian
2 - *Denver
3 - *Bellevue
4 - *Iowa City Regina
5 - *Pella Christian
6 - the winner of Madrid vs. Van Meter
7 - *Logan-Magnolia

We also know these THREE runner-up slots (ONE loss):
1 - Hinton
5 - Pleasantville
6 - loser of Madrid / Van Meter

TOTAL -- 10

That leaves SIX openings in the playoff field for the following TEN schools:
Arranged by points tiebreaker (multiplied by 6):
ONE district loss:
69 - West Branch
68 - Wilton
68 - Sigourney-Keota
65 - South Winneshiek
62 - Clayton Ridge
50 - AHSTW
We know at least two of the above (but no more than four) will be in with 6-1 district records
---
That means there will be between TWO and FOUR playoff spots for these (at least a couple teams from the above list will join this group):
TWO district losses:
54 - West Lyon
41 - Belmond-Klemme
34 - Panorama
21 - Missouri Valley (alive for runner-up slot, cannot be an at-large 3rd-place team)

TWO district losses (but already eliminated):
11 - Lake Mills (can't be runner-up on points ... too far behind for at-large)

*Some thoughts: post-season has already begun for some teams ... at least three or four games are going to act as a "play-in" round ...

Looks like West Lyon is going to get in after all ... after beating two Class 2A teams, they deserve it. Just need to win by 17 and get to a total of 71 ... puts them ahead of the others.

Any errors, let me know.

 

[usfhawk]

Projection Update:
There will be NO three-way ties for first place among the seven Class 1A districts this season.

This means that both of the at-large spots will go to teams with TWO district losses ...

There are 21 teams remaining with two or fewer district losses ... 16 of these will make the playoffs (one has been eliminated, which leaves 20):

The SEVEN district champions (* means clinched):
1 - *Western Christian
2 - *Denver
3 - *Bellevue
4 - *Iowa City Regina
5 - *Pella Christian
6 - the winner of Madrid vs. Van Meter
7 - *Logan-Magnolia

We also know these THREE runner-up slots (ONE loss):
1 - Hinton
5 - Pleasantville
6 - loser of Madrid / Van Meter

TOTAL -- 10

That leaves SIX openings in the playoff field for the following TEN schools:
Arranged by points tiebreaker (multiplied by 6):
ONE district loss:
69 - West Branch
68 - Wilton
68 - Sigourney-Keota
65 - South Winneshiek
62 - Clayton Ridge
50 - AHSTW
We know at least two of the above (but no more than four) will be in with 6-1 district records
---
That means there will be between TWO and FOUR playoff spots for these (at least a couple teams from the above list will join this group):
TWO district losses:
54 - West Lyon
41 - Belmond-Klemme
34 - Panorama
21 - Missouri Valley (alive for runner-up slot, cannot be an at-large 3rd-place team)

TWO district losses (but already eliminated):
11 - Lake Mills (can't be runner-up on points ... too far behind for at-large)

*Some thoughts: post-season has already begun for some teams ... at least three or four games are going to act as a "play-in" round ...

Looks like West Lyon is going to get in after all ... after beating two Class 2A teams, they deserve it. Just need to win by 17 and get to a total of 71 ... puts them ahead of the others.

Any errors, let me know.

South Winn is in even with a loss.

Everything looks good. Unless my numbers are incorrect, West Lyon is in as long as they win by at least 15 points.

My guess on the two at-large teams.

1.) West Lyon
2.) ???? Week 9 games are HUGE

Wilton @ Sigourney Keota
Clayton Ridge @ West Branch
Missouri Valley @ AHST

You win and you are in.

Points will be very interesting!!

 

[WBBearsFollower]

South Winn is in even with a loss.

Everything looks good. Unless my numbers are incorrect, West Lyon is in as long as they win by at least 15 points.

My guess on the two at-large teams.

1.) West Lyon
2.) ???? Week 9 games are HUGE

Wilton @ Sigourney Keota
Clayton Ridge @ West Branch
Missouri Valley @ AHS

West Lyon is a literal lock with a W.
The loser of the MV/AHSTW game is mathematically eliminated from playoff consideration.

The 2nd wildcard WILL come from West Branch, Wilton, Sigourney-Keota, or Clayton Ridge.

West Branch's lowest possible point total is 52 (7.43)
Missouri Valley's best point total with a loss is 49. AHSTW is obviously much lower with their best case scenario if they lose Friday.

Belmond-Klemme is virtually eliminated no matter what they do. Even with a win, they will lose the tiebreaker to South Winn and Lake Mills. SW beats BK on points, LM beat BK head to head.

South Winn will be the 2nd seed: a) with a win Friday, or b) a SW loss coupled with a Lake Mills win.

Clayton Ridge's best worst case scenario (a loss Friday) for point total is 61. So they are in the ball park.
SK and Wilton both have a best worst case scenario of 67 points.

West Branch is the sleeper/spoiler here.
IF they Bears win by 16 or more (a BIG IF) AND the winner of the Van Meter/Madrid game is by 17+, they will host a 1st round playoff game on Friday.

In the end, if WB loses but stays 1 point ahead of SK/Wilton outcome I think the Bears will be your #2 wildcard team.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

For West Branch to even be in the conversation after losing FIVE starters to injury is pretty darn amazing.
We are on our THIRD QB who is the leading receiver for the team and has not caught a pass since week 5. Not only that, Cooper Kabela has NEVER played the position before week 6 of this season.

No excuses but like I said it's amazing we are even in the conversation for a spot.

 

[Pinehawk]

Every team has had big injuries at this point. I can think of another highly ranked team that has lost their starting QB and RB and hasn't brought it up as an excuse once.

WB hasn't played a playoff caliber team the last three weeks, but they will this week. So, they'll have a chance to prove if they belong or not. Just like a few other teams.

 

[EIHCGuy]

Losing 5 kids at a small school plays a big role into why the Bears haven't played like a Playoff caliber team. You think?

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Losing 5 kids at a small school plays a big role into why the Bears haven't played like a Playoff caliber team. You think?

Perfectly stated.
I do not care where you are from. If you lose 5 kids from a small school FB program to injury, it is going to play a significant role in the outcome of a game and/or season. I am proud of how the kids have handled it without making an excuse. It that means Luke gets the ball 50 times and the Bears win, I can guarantee you he'd do it without batting an eye at discontent.

 

[RoundMound1]

For West Branch to even be in the conversation after losing FIVE starters to injury is pretty darn amazing.
We are on our THIRD QB who is the leading receiver for the team and has not caught a pass since week 5. Not only that, Cooper Kabela has NEVER played the position before week 6 of this season.

No excuses but like I said it's amazing we are even in the conversation for a spot.

Translation: We only had a short amount of time to teach Cooper how to hand off to the best RB in school history.

I jest

 

[EIHCGuy]

Yep. That's all a QB does. Hand the ball off. What a ridiculously uninformed comment.

 

[cyard31]

Yep. That's all a QB does. Hand the ball off. What a ridiculously uninformed comment.

still, it is nice to see an athlete that is able to adapt to adversity & willing to help his "team" in anyway he can. Cooper has done a terrific job of handling the situation. The string of "not so strong" teams may be just what the Bears needed to build this ReceiverQB's confidence & for a post season run.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Yep. That's all a QB does. Hand the ball off. What a ridiculously uninformed comment.

Welcome back EIHC, always great to see your sunny disposition on the board. As far as injuries go the Bears have been hit harder than most, at this time of the year all teams have been dinged some.

 

[cyard31]

if the Bears win vs CR. would one think they be the #2 seed & have to travel 8 miles 1st round?

 

[Scoreinisntborin]

What we know
10 spot are wrapped up
Western Christian
Hinton
Denver
Belevue
Regina
Pella Christian
Pleasantville
Madrid
Van Meter
Logan Magnolia

Should win to get in
West Lyon

That's 11 of 16 spots taken

Win and in
Wilton @ Sigourney Keota winner
Clayton Ridge @ West Branch winner
If South Winn beats Belmond Klemme
Missouri Valley @ AHSTW winner

I think S. Winn and AHSTW both win so that's 15 of 16 spots gone

If all the above happens that means only one spot for 3 teams
The loser of Wilton/SK and CR/WB and Panora

Panora is automatically eliminated if West Branch loses due to points. Most points Panora can get is 51, the least West Branch can get is 52

This then means that if Sig-Keota loses they must lose by 1 fewer point than West Branch does. If WB and SK tie in points SK goes based on alphabet order with this years letter being "J".

With a WB and Wilton loss Wilton must lose by 2 fewer points than WB to get in on points . West Brach comes before Wilton in the alphabet.

If Clayton Ridge loses. Panora must equal the loss by SK or Wilton and win by 6 more than Clayton Ridge loses by. For SK or wilton to get in they must lose by 1 point less than panora wins by and lose by 6 or less than Clayton Ridge loses by.

Wrinkles that could happen
Belmond beats S. Winn... If Belmond beat S. Winn by 13 they win the 3 way tie for runner up based on runner-up tie breaker point total
Emmetsburg pulls a shocker and competes with West Lyon.

Who I think makes it

District Champions
Western Christian
Denver
Bellevue
Regina
Pella Christian
Van Meter
Logan Magnolia

Runner ups
Hinton
South Winn
Clayton Ridge
Wilton
Pleasantville
Madrid
AHSTW

Wild Card
West Lyon
Sigourney Keota

My Matchups

WEST
West Lyon @ Western Christian
Hinton @ Logan Magnolia
AHSTW @ Van Meter
Madrid @ Pella Christian

EAST
Pleasantville @ Regina
Wilton @ Clayton Ridge
Sigourney Keota @ Denver
South Winn @ Bellevue

 

[GoEagles23]

Gonna be fun being at the Little Rose Bowl again. This time I get to watch my CR Eagles do some damage. Tough place to win for sure. Sounds like the Bears are beat up a bit, but I'm sure they'll bring a fight on Senior Night in WB. Very few places in Eastern Iowa to watch a ball game then the house that Hoover built.

I predict CR wins in an instant classic, 35-34.
West Branch would then be the other wild card. State might send the Bears to Bellevue for Part II (District champs can play wildcard teams from their own district), the CR Eagles to Regina, and SK Cobras to Pella Christian?

 

[fmclonefan]

Madrid @ Pella Christian would be quite a first round match-up.

 

[usfhawk]

What we know
10 spot are wrapped up
Western Christian
Hinton
Denver
Belevue
Regina
Pella Christian
Pleasantville
Madrid
Van Meter
Logan Magnolia

Should win to get in
West Lyon

That's 11 of 16 spots taken

Win and in
Wilton @ Sigourney Keota winner
Clayton Ridge @ West Branch winner
If South Winn beats Belmond Klemme
Missouri Valley @ AHSTW winner

I think S. Winn and AHSTW both win so that's 15 of 16 spots gone

If all the above happens that means only one spot for 3 teams
The loser of Wilton/SK and CR/WB and Panora

Panora is automatically eliminated if West Branch loses due to points. Most points Panora can get is 51, the least West Branch can get is 52

This then means that if Sig-Keota loses they must lose by 1 fewer point than West Branch does. If WB and SK tie in points SK goes based on alphabet order with this years letter being "J".

With a WB and Wilton loss Wilton must lose by 2 fewer points than WB to get in on points . West Brach comes before Wilton in the alphabet.

If Clayton Ridge loses. Panora must equal the loss by SK or Wilton and win by 6 more than Clayton Ridge loses by. For SK or wilton to get in they must lose by 1 point less than panora wins by and lose by 6 or less than Clayton Ridge loses by.

Wrinkles that could happen
Belmond beats S. Winn... If Belmond beat S. Winn by 13 they win the 3 way tie for runner up based on runner-up tie breaker point total
Emmetsburg pulls a shocker and competes with West Lyon.

Who I think makes it

District Champions
Western Christian
Denver
Bellevue
Regina
Pella Christian
Van Meter
Logan Magnolia

Runner ups
Hinton
South Winn
Clayton Ridge
Wilton
Pleasantville
Madrid
AHSTW

Wild Card
West Lyon
Sigourney Keota

My Matchups

WEST
West Lyon @ Western Christian
Hinton @ Logan Magnolia
AHSTW @ Van Meter
Madrid @ Pella Christian

EAST
Pleasantville @ Regina
Wilton @ Clayton Ridge
Sigourney Keota @ Denver
South Winn @ Bellevue

I heard an interesting rumor that Western may not be able to host their 1st round game. They take turns using their home field with Boyden Hull Rock Valley. Boyden Hull should also have a first round home game and it is their turn to use the field. Not sure how accurate this is but still interesting.

 

[ISUChip]

I heard an interesting rumor that Western may not be able to host their 1st round game. They take turns using their home field with Boyden Hull Rock Valley. Boyden Hull should also have a first round home game and it is their turn to use the field. Not sure how accurate this is but still interesting.

Per the IHSAA, the school that owns the facility has the first priority on hosting.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

I can live with what you said, GoEagles. Could be a fun night of fingernail biting in WB and Guttenburg.

 

[VanderHoops]

I heard an interesting rumor that Western may not be able to host their 1st round game. They take turns using their home field with Boyden Hull Rock Valley. Boyden Hull should also have a first round home game and it is their turn to use the field. Not sure how accurate this is but still interesting.

My guess is they would use Sioux Center's field if this happened.
BHRV also has the option to play home games in Rock Valley (they alternate between Hull and RV during the regular season.

 

[rk#5]

My guess is they would use Sioux Center's field if this happened.
BHRV also has the option to play home games in Rock Valley (they alternate between Hull and RV during the regular season.

If Rock Valley hosted the last home playoff game then the next game is hosted by Hull.

 

[usfhawk]

My guess is they would use Sioux Center's field if this happened.
BHRV also has the option to play home games in Rock Valley (they alternate between Hull and RV during the regular season.

I'm guessing you are right. Western will probably have to rent Sioux Center's field, possibly Orange City?

 

[VanderHoops]

I'm guessing you are right. Western will probably have to rent Sioux Center's field, possibly Orange City?

Nighthawks have to take care of business tonight vs Central Lyon or its a moot point.

Ironic that 1A West Lyon has beaten the 2 undefeated 2A-1 teams and still needs to scratch out a playoff spot.

 

[NWIAHawkfan]

Heard it confirmed today, if BH-RV wins tonight, next Friday's game will be hosted by Western at Sioux Center.

 

[EIHCGuy]

West Branch will make the playoffs as an at large. They'll probably get the pleasure of driving 8 miles again this season

 

[Pinehawk]

West Branch will make the playoffs as an at large. They'll probably get the pleasure of driving 8 miles again this season

Do they deserve it? Seemed like they lost to every good team they played. Did they beat maybe just one or two teams with a winning record?

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Do they deserve it? Seemed like they lost to every good team they played. Did they beat maybe just one or two teams with a winning record?

I called the IHSAA and told them to give the spot to someone else.
That sound fair?

 

[cidhawkeye]

I called the IHSAA and told them to give the spot to someone else.
That sound fair?

Only if Butch does it, things seem to get lined up the way he wants them to be.

 

[FLBP]

The last I checked. They are not the Bowl selection committee and base they selection on how well your fans travel or how many injuries you've overcame.

 

[cyard31]

I called the IHSAA and told them to give the spot to someone else.
That sound fair?

looking forward to the chance to take down #1. Do you know the extent of Luke's injury. "shoulder" from what I saw.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Luke is fine. Precautionary.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Only if Butch does it, things seem to get lined up the way he wants them to be.

you're right. We wanted to play the #1 team in the state in week 1.
He also wants #1 vs #2 to (possibly) play every year in the quarterfinals. Makes sense, yeah?

 

[Bluejay89]

Luke is fine. Precautionary.

I'm no doctor and I'm not close to the WB football program. I do not understand "precautionary." Lenoch was not in for what was the final series of the game to win the game to guarantee a playoff spot. He is the best player on the team. How is this precautionary? I'm not being adversarial, just curious.