Playoff Discussion

[usfhawk]

Disclaimer: This thread is entirely for discussion and should be viewed as such. All information listed below is a complete guess on my part. Discuss.

District by District Finish (predictions)

D1:

IKM (6-0)
Avoca (5-1)
OABCIG (4-2)
Underwood (2-4) Won head to head against Missouri Valley

D2:

WL (6-0)
Hinton (5-1)
Western (4-2)
HMS (3-3)

D3:

St. Ansgar (6-0)
Emmetsburg (5-1)
Pocahantas (4-2)
Lake Millls (3-3)

D4:

South Winn (6-0)
DNH (5-1)
Hudson (4-2)
Sumner Fred (3-3)

D5:

West Branch (6-0)
North Cedar (5-1)
Bellevue (4-2)
Alburnett (3-3)

D6:

Regina (6-0)
SK (4-2)
Pella Christian (4-2)
Riverside (3-3)

D7:

FDSE (6-0)
Ogden (5-1)
Madrid (4-2)
SSC (3-3)

D8:

Van Meter (6-0)
Panorama (5-1)
Central Dec (3-3)
WG (3-3)


Round 1 "Predictions"

*** All predictions made with the new state pairing language in mind.

Woodward Granger @ IKM
HMS @ WL (back to back weeks)
Sumner Fred @ St. Ansgar
Lake Mills @ South Winn
Riverside Highland @ West Branch
Alburnett @ Regina
South Central Calhoun @ FDSE
Underwood @ Van Meter
OCBCIG @ Hinton
Madrid @ Avoca
Western Christian @ Emmetsburg
Pella Christian @ DNH
Bellevue @ North Cedar (D5 teams) (Not many options for Bellevue)
Central Decatur @ Sigourney Keota
Hudson @ Ogden
Pocahontas Area @ Panorama

Round 2 "Predictions"

Hinton @ IKM
Emmetsburg @ WL
Ogden @ St. Ansgar
Sigourney Keota @ South Winn
DNH @ West Branch
North Cedar @ Regina
Pocahantas Area @ FDSE
Madrid @ Van Meter

Quarterfinals "Predictions"

Van Meter @ Regina
South Winn @ West Branch
Ogden @ FDSE
IKM @ West Lyon (neutral)

 

[BlameIt]

I agree with about 95% of your district projections

D6 will look a bit different

1 Regina
2 Pella Christian
3 Sigourney Keota
4 Eddy-Blake-Fre

I think EBF will travel to WB (you said Riverside, so we are on same page)

Quarterfinals "Predictions"[/B]

Van Meter @ Regina[/B]
South Winn @ West Branch
Ogden @ FDSE[/B]
IKM @ West Lyon (neutral)

-- [/B]I can see these matchups. I cannot see Ogden beating SA, though. Ogden's defense is no bueno vs the run. And SA runs a Bone.

No way WB can get away from South Winn AND Regina in quarters. Will have to beat one of them to get to the Dome.

 

[se xc1]

If SE and FDSH both get to host, will they do a doubleheader, or will SE have to play on the road. Will they let them try to find another venue to host? Would any area school be willing to let them? Are there any other situations like this??

 

[usfhawk]

The Riverside/EBF game this week will decide who gets the 4 spot in D6. Should be an evenly matched game. Regardless, the winner will get West Branch IMO.

The Ogden pick was more of me trying to fit in an upset somewhere. But, it will come down to who can stop who. St. Ansgar is the #1 scoring defense so that edge goes to them. The ? is, has St. Ansgar played a team that throws the ball like Ogden?

 

[usfhawk]

FDHS has to beat Waukee and Urbandale before they get to host, but that is a good question.

This post was edited on 10/14 10:31 AM by usfhawk

 

[Lightning9899]

Does the new pairing system work by distance like has been stated previously? If so, I can't see West Branch and Regina going for that long without meeting, regardless of what may be best for semifinal pairings.

Ogden would be a good test for SA's pass defense. I still pick SA by 1 or 2 scores.

 

[L N D]

Actually Fort Dodge only has to beat Urbandale to host. They would finish 2nd. I don't see why they can't do a double header? That would be fun!
This post was edited on 10/14 11:11 AM by L N D

 

[BlameIt]

Originally posted by Lightning9899:
Does the new pairing system work by distance like has been stated previously? If so, I can't see West Branch and Regina going for that long without meeting, regardless of what may be best for semifinal pairings.

Ogden would be a good test for SA's pass defense. I still pick SA by 1 or 2 scores.

the state has done it in Class 4A for Dowling AND Valley.

they are 6 miles closer to one another than WB/ICR are from one another

 

[Lightning9899]

Hmm. How would they base it then? By rankings?

 

[Cardinal2012]

Originally posted by BlameIt:
I agree with about 95% of your district projections

D6 will look a bit different

1 Regina
2 Pella Christian
3 Sigourney Keota
4 Eddy-Blake-Fre

I think EBF will travel to WB (you said Riverside, so we are on same page)

Quarterfinals "Predictions"[/B]

Van Meter @ Regina[/B]
South Winn @ West Branch
Ogden @ FDSE[/B]
IKM @ West Lyon (neutral)

-- [/B]I can see these matchups. I cannot see Ogden beating SA, though. Ogden's defense is no bueno vs the run. And SA runs a Bone.

No way WB can get away from South Winn AND Regina in quarters. Will have to beat one of them to get to the Dome.

If all the district champions win, which is likely, you should see this.

Regina (6-0) @ West Branch (6-0)
Saint Ansgar (6-0) @ South Winn (6-0)
IKM (6-0) @ West Lyon (6-0) (would they do nuetral because of distance?)
FDSE (6-0) @ Van Meter (6-0)

Don't forget the host rules. All are district champs, all undefeated in district, and none of these teams have head-to-head games so it goes to LAST alphabetically hosting. West Branch is a lock to play at home. West Lyon has the distance issue.

In the original prediction you'd see Regina going to Van Meter as the only change. If the state wants Regina to host they would have to send them South Winn and I'm sure West Branch would not mind hosting Van Meter if that's the case.

 

[TigerHawkTackle]

That is great information USFHAWK - very nice job. I am just curious as to your thinking why Van Meter would beat Madrid since Madrid beat them by a couple of scores in week 1?

 

[usfhawk]

Originally posted by TigerHawkTackle:

That is great information USFHAWK - very nice job. I am just curious as to your thinking why Van Meter would beat Madrid since Madrid beat them by a couple of scores in week 1?

Good question.

This would be an interesting matchup that could go either way.

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by usfhawk:


The Ogden pick was more of me trying to fit in an upset somewhere. But, it will come down to who can stop who. St. Ansgar is the #1 scoring defense so that edge goes to them. The ? is, has St. Ansgar played a team that throws the ball like Ogden?

I don't really see that as an upset at all. It's more of a tossup game. Ogden beat a solid Madrid team by 27, an ok Van Meter team by 33 and Panora and South Hamilton by 10 and 1.

SA in my opinion is the most overrated team in 1A at this point. They haven't played a single good team all year. They beat Mason City Newman 27-0, the same team FDSE tried not to score 75 against. Their other "quality" wins came against class A Nashau-Plainfield by 13 points and EBerg 14-0.

I would almost lean towards Ogden in a playoff because they have been tested this season in a tough district unlike SA.

The #1 defense is really kind of a moot point when the best offense they've played in 1A this season is rated 17th in points scored.
This post was edited on 10/14 1:53 PM by CP84

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by Cardinal2012:

Originally posted by BlameIt:
I agree with about 95% of your district projections

D6 will look a bit different

1 Regina
2 Pella Christian
3 Sigourney Keota
4 Eddy-Blake-Fre

I think EBF will travel to WB (you said Riverside, so we are on same page)

Quarterfinals "Predictions"[/B]

Van Meter @ Regina[/B]
South Winn @ West Branch
Ogden @ FDSE[/B]
IKM @ West Lyon (neutral)

-- [/B]I can see these matchups. I cannot see Ogden beating SA, though. Ogden's defense is no bueno vs the run. And SA runs a Bone.

No way WB can get away from South Winn AND Regina in quarters. Will have to beat one of them to get to the Dome.

If all the district champions win, which is likely, you should see this.

Regina (6-0) @ West Branch (6-0)
Saint Ansgar (6-0) @ South Winn (6-0)
IKM (6-0) @ West Lyon (6-0) (would they do nuetral because of distance?)
FDSE (6-0) @ Van Meter (6-0)

Don't forget the host rules. All are district champs, all undefeated in district, and none of these teams have head-to-head games so it goes to LAST alphabetically hosting. West Branch is a lock to play at home. West Lyon has the distance issue.

In the original prediction you'd see Regina going to Van Meter as the only change. If the state wants Regina to host they would have to send them South Winn and I'm sure West Branch would not mind hosting Van Meter if that's the case.

This would be pretty ideal. It would be nice to see the "big 4" in the semis but getting the winner between Regina/WB in along with South Winn, FDSE and the winner of IKM / West Lyon would be a good semi-final.

Everyone seems pretty down on the Western side of the state largely due to WB, SW and Regina all being East but the West does have a lot of quality teams and a large amount of depth.

Of the current top 20 teams, 11 are from Western districts 1,2 and 7. The deepest district in the state is district 7 with 6 top 20 teams.

I really don't see any district 8 team sniffing the quarters. The 4th best district 7 team would probably beat the best district 8 has to offer.
This post was edited on 10/14 4:06 PM by CP84

 

[spook78]

Tried not to score 75 against?
Do I need to remind you that starters teamed up to score a 2 point conversion while leading 73-0.

 

[DarkThunder#61]

usf, you read my mind with this thread, though my idea was a little different. A bit more like ESPN's bubble watch.

Here's the list of teams that have clinched a playoff spot out of the 32 available:

IKM-Manning
West Lyon
Hinton
Saint Ansgar
Pocahontas
Emmetsburg
South Winneshiek
West Branch
Iowa City Regina
St. Edmond
Van Meter
Panorama


As for your projected 1st round matchups, I think it's going to be interesting to see who the state actually does pair together. Even though there is no set bracket for the next round, who gets paired with who will still have a big effect on who is left with regards to the geographical factor.

For discussion purposes, here's who I think would be available (based on your projections) for each of the teams above who have already qualified....

District 1-
IKM-Manning: South Central Calhoun (41/56 miles*), Underwood (59 miles), Woodward-Granger (62 miles)

*- can't remember if SCC plays football in Lake City or Rockwell City.

District 2-
West Lyon: H-M-S (56 miles).....this is the issue with NW Iowa being out on an island.

Hinton: Western Christian (42 miles), O-A/BC-IG (63 miles), Pocahontas (90 miles)

District 3-
Saint Ansgar: Lake Mills (34 miles), Sumner-Fredericksburg (75 miles)

Pocahontas: Emmetsburg (26 miles), Ogden (81 miles), Panorama (87 miles), Hinton (90 miles), A-H-S-T (122 miles)

Emmetsburg: Pocahontas (26 miles), Western Christian (75 miles), O-A/BC-IG (95 miles)

District 4-
South Winneshiek: Sumner-Fredericksburg (32 miles), Alburnett (88 miles), Lake Mills (99 miles)

District 5-
West Branch: Highland, Riverside (25 miles), Alburnett (53 miles), Sumner-Fredericksburg (113 miles)

District 6-
Iowa City Regina: Highland, Riverside (14 miles), Alburnett (44 miles), Sumner-Fredericksburg (104 miles)

District 7-
St. Edmond: South Central Calhoun (28/41 miles), Woodward-Granger (59 miles), Lake Mills (112 miles), H-M-S (116 miles)

District 8-
Van Meter: Woodward-Granger (26 miles), South Central Calhoun (89/94 miles), Underwood (98 miles)

Panorama: Madrid (41 miles), Pella Christian (87 miles), Pocahontas (87 miles), O-A/BC-IG (96 miles), Central Decatur (101 miles)

 

[DarkThunder#61]

Originally posted by se xc1:
If SE and FDSH both get to host, will they do a doubleheader, or will SE have to play on the road. Will they let them try to find another venue to host? Would any area school be willing to let them? Are there any other situations like this??

Yep, as another mentioned, FD needs to manage a split in their final two games in order to host a 1st round game and most likely a second. Here's what I found on the State website:


a. The school that owns the facility will have first priority regarding hosting the contest.
b. The school not owning the facility will have the opportunity to find another site to host the contest,
or the contest will be held at the opponent's facility. All efforts should be made to find a facility that
is no further than the opponent would have had to travel to the host school for the contest.


So basically, yeah there's a possibility St. Edmond may not get to host a playoff game in the first two rounds (and really also depending on how far Fort Dodge goes and who they play).


Maybe they could have some Musco lights and extra bleachers brought in and SE could host the game over on their football field at the school.

 

[CP84]

Spook, correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the two points came from a botched extra point attempt. Logan Fear and Naughton got plenty of second half carries and I believe O'Toole had fewer than 10. SE could have scored 100 in that game if they wanted.

 

[warriors dad]

DO we really need to have that discussion again???????????? Looking forward to fri. nights game. Do you think S.E. will play all starters or rest them? Hope it is good game and am eager to see how the jags can keep it close. WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE!!!!

 

[spook78]

correct me if I'm wrong, but the fact is st ed led 73-0 and then successfully pulled off a 2 point conversion. And the people touching the ball were starters. Now, theres been talk on the boards recently of st eds low roster numbers. I can understand that. But at 30 some kids on the roster you are still using starters to score your 74th and 75th points? Also a fact is....100 points were not scored.

 

[BlameIt]

As stated previously by a few other posters, I just do not see a District 8 team making the round of 8.

IKM will make it only because West Lyon's district is weak beyond West Lyon.

But, I think WL beats IKM by 21+ if they play.

All that being said, it throws a bit of a wrench into things if a #2 seed qualifies for the round of 8.

IF Ogden qualifies, or North Cedar (low %), it brings different scenarios.

Here is how I see it all playing out:

IKM @ West Lyon
FDSE @ St Ansgar
Ogden @ Regina
South Winn @ West Branch (heavyweight battle!)

No way does the state send Regina to South Winn or St Ansgar. Just cannot see them being that 'disrespectful' to a 4-time defending champ.

but....just in case

Ogden @ West Lyon
IKM @ FDSE
Regina @ St Ansgar
SWinn/NC @ West Branch

I just cannot see WB playing anybody other than Regina or South Winn unless North Cedar pulls an upset.

 

[warriors dad]

Spookm I am in your corner on that and I posted back when it was over but it is over. Poky having good year, I wish our teams could get hooked up sometime soon on the schedule!

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by spook78:
correct me if I'm wrong, but the fact is st ed led 73-0 and then successfully pulled off a 2 point conversion. And the people touching the ball were starters. Now, theres been talk on the boards recently of st eds low roster numbers. I can understand that. But at 30 some kids on the roster you are still using starters to score your 74th and 75th points? Also a fact is....100 points were not scored.

"correct me if I'm wrong, but the fact is st ed led 73-0 and then
successfully pulled off a 2 point conversion. And the people touching
the ball were starters."

How many teams put in a backup kicking unit to attempt extra points? Landon Peed, the kicker, was the one who picked up the ball and ran it in. As far as I know he is the only kicker on the varsity roster. That is a far cry from sending out the starting offense to pound in a 2 point conversion which your previous post implies.

"Also a fact is....100 points were not scored."

Do you need reading comprehension glasses? Where did I state this as fact? I specifically said they could have and most likely would have had they not pulled key starters early in the game. The 3rd and 4th string halfbacks combined for 13 carries. O'Toole only carried the ball 7 times but you're going to complain about a team sending out the starting kicker to attempt an extra point and then running it in when the play was botched? Seems like a pretty obtuse way to troll.




This post was edited on 10/14 8:24 PM by CP84

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by warriors dad:

DO we really need to have that discussion again???????????? Looking forward to fri. nights game. Do you think S.E. will play all starters or rest them? Hope it is good game and am eager to see how the jags can keep it close. WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE!!!!

The discussion was never meant to happen. I was using the score as one of a couple reference points to compare different teams based on common opponents. Spook turned it into a dig which you promptly agreed with but back to the other point.

Why would SE rest starters? Southeast Valley is a capable 2A team. If SE jumps up big I'm sure they will give players like Fairfelick, Fear and Naughton playing time as they have in other games but you aren't going to bench starters against a 5-2 2A team at the beginning of the game.





This post was edited on 10/14 8:21 PM by CP84

 

[warriors dad]

Take it easy cp30! The only reason I asked is because it is a non district game this late in the year with playoffs approaching quickly. Sorry for living!!

 

[cidhawkeye]

Tough to rest many starters with the low roster numbers.

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by warriors dad:

Take it easy cp30! The only reason I asked is because it is a non district game this late in the year with playoffs approaching quickly. Sorry for living!!

What,did I type in all caps or something? You asked a question and I simply asked one back to you followed by my thoughts. It may be a non district game but I don't think any coach would potentially sacrifice a perfect regular season by resting starters with 2 games to go. This will also be more valuable experience going into the playoffs.

 

[spook78]

if you want to start using the word "could" that opens the door to lots of things that never happened. " if the 4th quarter was 20 minutes long MNWW COULD have come back and beat St Ed" "If O'Tool had had 2 more carries against Madrid he COULD have suffered a tib-fib fracture". see, saying st eds could have scored 100 points carries as much merit as the above examples. Its worth northing because it didn't happen. what is worth something is tangible things. things that actually happened. stats. facts. truths. like using starters to score a 2 point conversion when up by 73 points. It happened and it was real.
Only kicker on st eds team huh? wow. And I'll take your word on that as I don't know. You guys could be in trouble for the future. How exactly do you start off your JV games? Or are you using your varsity kicker for that?

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by spook78:
if you want to start using the word "could" that opens the door to lots of things that never happened. " if the 4th quarter was 20 minutes long MNWW COULD have come back and beat St Ed" "If O'Tool had had 2 more carries against Madrid he COULD have suffered a tib-fib fracture". see, saying st eds could have scored 100 points carries as much merit as the above examples. Its worth northing because it didn't happen. what is worth something is tangible things. things that actually happened. stats. facts. truths. like using starters to score a 2 point conversion when up by 73 points. It happened and it was real.
Only kicker on st eds team huh? wow. And I'll take your word on that as I don't know. You guys could be in trouble for the future. How exactly do you start off your JV games? Or are you using your varsity kicker for that?

I don't see your point. First of all I'm speculating (not stating a fact as you previously stated) and all hypotheticals have differing probability rates. For example the 4th qtr is not 20 minutes long so the probability assigned to that is and always would be = 0%. So it is absolutely not true that this example carries "as much merit" as SE's chances to score 100 prior to pulling out starters.


"Its worth northing because it didn't happen."
I don't see why it's worth noting. I never stated it as a fact to begin with. The only fact is SE took out several key starters in the 2nd half to prevent this from happening. This is essentially arguing that if I say a building fire could have within reason burned down a facility had the firefighters not extinguished it and you say the claim has no merit because the firefighters did in fact put the fire out. It doesn't make the hypothetical any less reasonable simply because actions took place preventing it from happening.

"like using starters to score a 2 point conversion when up by 73 points. It happened and it was real."
I'm sure you hold other teams like Regina to the same standard when Jacob Adam attempted his 6th XP in a blowout against West Marshall.

It's pretty silly when your chief complaint with SE is that they didn't pull out their starting kicker to attempt XPs after pulling out other key starters 2 qtrs before.

 

[cowpie57]

Went to a st eds jv game this year. Kicker flopped the ball about 25 yards every kickoff. May have gotten ONE to actually rotate end over end.

 

[warriors dad]

My youngest plays 7th grade for SEV and played st. eds today and they only played 3 Qtrs because 8th grade has low #s. Why the low #s, St. Eds has good coaches and recent winning, usually leads to better participation? Recruiting not going well?

Sorry couldn't resist!!!

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by warriors dad:

My youngest plays 7th grade for SEV and played st. eds today and they only played 3 Qtrs because 8th grade has low #s. Why the low #s, St. Eds has good coaches and recent winning, usually leads to better participation? Recruiting not going well?

Sorry couldn't resist!!!

Yeah rumor has it SE took their billboard down over in Clare and Barnum and it's been detrimental in luring commits away from Manson.

 

[captainamerica18]

Damn, Spook, you are one confused dude. It is clear that you do not understand basic probability or that facts need context. I am amazed that you strung so many sentences together to generate that post. I know that sounds mean, but I am not joking whatsoever. I'm taking a page out of your book and looking blindly at facts without giving them any context. You said MNW could have come back and beat St. Eds!? Without looking at the context surrounding that statement, that is a terribly silly thing to say.

 

[spook78]

In the St vs ogden thread, Thunder wrote that he thought the middle school had good numbers. which class was small dad? the 7th or 8th? Low participation numbers can change a team in a hurry.

 

[spook78]

nope, not confused. just stating facts. Not my fault if you weren't paying attention in class when the word "fact" was explained.

 

[warriors dad]

8th grade appeared ( no roster) to have roughly 7-10 players do not know for sure but during warm ups coaches working with 7th graders and they were off to side.

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by spook78:
nope, not confused. just stating facts. Not my fault if you weren't paying attention in class when the word "fact" was explained.

When did you learn about context? Your original post said "Do I need to remind you that starters teamed up to score a 2 point conversion while leading 73-0." A reasonable person that didn't see the game would believe that SE sent out the starting offense and attempted a 2 point conversion. Of course you purposefully didn't put this in proper context because it would've watered down your attempt to troll. What SE did is no different that teams like Regina or other good teams keeping starting special teamers in the game on XPs but you attempt to turn it into a cheap shot. Had the play not busted, it would have been a routine XP and you would have to find something else to complain about.




This post was edited on 10/14 9:41 PM by CP84

 

[captainamerica18]

To ignore the context surrounding the facts is asinine, right? You have to understand that, right? I am not doubting you know the definition of a fact. I'm really not. But to simply look at only the facts you want and ignore other facts that contextualize them, just so you can, in a very convoluted way, reach a presumption you want to claim is true--that's insane, right!?

 

[tigercrzy]

Who cares. Let's talk playoffs.

And for what is worth, Madrid was down three of our starting linemen and a starting back when we played St. Eds. So while they might have took it to us that night, it would be fun to rematch with a healthy Madrid team. Although I give St Eds nothing but props as they are a great physical team.

This post was edited on 10/14 9:49 PM by tigercrzy

 

[captainamerica18]

I appreciate you trying to steer the conversation to where it needs to be, tigercrazy. But I would really like for Spook to answer my many rhetorical questions.