Except for D-5, the teams that could wrap up district titles with wins did it Friday night - although Carroll and Norwalk certainly kept their fans' hearts beating fast with battling back from behind to get their victories. We know the district champions in 6 of the 9 districts:
D-1: Sergeant Bluff-Luton (Heelan can tie with a win over Spencer and an SBL loss to Storm Lake, but SBL holds the tiebreaker)
D-2: Carroll (Boone can tie with a win over Webster City and a Carroll loss to Dallas Center-Grimes, but Carroll holds the tiebreaker)
D-6: Solon (the winner of Mount Pleasant-Washington can tie if Solon loses to Fairfield, but Solon has the tiebreaker over both)
D-7: Oskaloosa (Pella can tie with a win over Grinnell if Oskaloosa loses to South Tama, but Oskaloosa has the tiebreaker)
D-8: Norwalk
D-9: Lewis Central (Harlan can tie with a win over Winterset if Lewis Central loses to ADM, but Lewis Central has the tiebreaker)
The situation in the other three districts is exactly the same - one team can win the district outright with a victory on Friday, but with a loss the potential of a three-way tie exists.
In D-3, Decorah wins the title by beating Independence Friday. An Independence win, along with a Waverly-Shell Rock win over Charles City, sets up a three-way tie with Waverly-Shell Rock, Decorah, and Independence all in the playoffs (WSR probably gets the title by RPI). Losses by both Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock mean Independence wins the district with the head-to-head over Decorah.
In D-4, it's Xavier who can win the district outright by defeating Marion. A Marion win plus a Western Dubuque win over Maquoketa brings a three-way tie, with Xavier, Western Dubuque, and Marion all in the playoffs (Xavier would get the championship by RPI). Losses by both Xavier and Western Dubuque give Marion the title (head-to-head over Xavier).
In D-5, North Scott wins the championship with a win over Davenport Assumption. An Assumption win plus a Clear Creek-Amana win over Central DeWitt means a three-way tie, with CCA, North Scott, and Assumption all making the playoffs (probably CCA gets the championship by RPI). Losses by both North Scott and CCA make Assumption the district champion with the head-to-head over North Scott.
So that's the situation with district titles and automatic qualifiers. How does RPI shake out for the rest of the field? With my projections of what likely will happen this week, things really haven't changed much from what I expected last week. The district champions should end up like this:
A few wrinkles: a Spencer win over Heelan really shouldn't mean much to either one, they'd still almost certainly both be in the playoffs. Heelan would probably drop to #11, behind Harlan, and Spencer would still be #14.
If the rather unlikely set of all three of the three-way tie possibilities came to pass (meaning all of Waverly-Shell Rock/Decorah/Independence/Xavier/Western Dubuque/Marion/Clear Creek-Amana/North Scott/Assumption were automatic qualifiers), there would be only one at-large spot available. That would go to Heelan (if they defeat Spencer) or Harlan (if Heelan loses and Harlan defeats Winterset).
Anyway, given the likely outcomes of this coming week's games, my thoughts about playoff brackets really haven't changed. If the state wants to make an attempt to seed, get the top 4 RPI teams to the semis (which I project to be SBL, Xavier, Lewis Central, and North Scott), and not have two high-RPI squads meet in the first round, a possible bracket could look like this:
Carroll at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Heelan at Norwalk
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Spencer at Lewis Central
Harlan at Oskaloosa
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----
Waverly-Shell Rock at Xavier
Western Dubuque at Decorah
----
Pella at North Scott
Clear Creek-Amana at Solon
D-1: Sergeant Bluff-Luton (Heelan can tie with a win over Spencer and an SBL loss to Storm Lake, but SBL holds the tiebreaker)
D-2: Carroll (Boone can tie with a win over Webster City and a Carroll loss to Dallas Center-Grimes, but Carroll holds the tiebreaker)
D-6: Solon (the winner of Mount Pleasant-Washington can tie if Solon loses to Fairfield, but Solon has the tiebreaker over both)
D-7: Oskaloosa (Pella can tie with a win over Grinnell if Oskaloosa loses to South Tama, but Oskaloosa has the tiebreaker)
D-8: Norwalk
D-9: Lewis Central (Harlan can tie with a win over Winterset if Lewis Central loses to ADM, but Lewis Central has the tiebreaker)
The situation in the other three districts is exactly the same - one team can win the district outright with a victory on Friday, but with a loss the potential of a three-way tie exists.
In D-3, Decorah wins the title by beating Independence Friday. An Independence win, along with a Waverly-Shell Rock win over Charles City, sets up a three-way tie with Waverly-Shell Rock, Decorah, and Independence all in the playoffs (WSR probably gets the title by RPI). Losses by both Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock mean Independence wins the district with the head-to-head over Decorah.
In D-4, it's Xavier who can win the district outright by defeating Marion. A Marion win plus a Western Dubuque win over Maquoketa brings a three-way tie, with Xavier, Western Dubuque, and Marion all in the playoffs (Xavier would get the championship by RPI). Losses by both Xavier and Western Dubuque give Marion the title (head-to-head over Xavier).
In D-5, North Scott wins the championship with a win over Davenport Assumption. An Assumption win plus a Clear Creek-Amana win over Central DeWitt means a three-way tie, with CCA, North Scott, and Assumption all making the playoffs (probably CCA gets the championship by RPI). Losses by both North Scott and CCA make Assumption the district champion with the head-to-head over North Scott.
So that's the situation with district titles and automatic qualifiers. How does RPI shake out for the rest of the field? With my projections of what likely will happen this week, things really haven't changed much from what I expected last week. The district champions should end up like this:
- SBL
- Carroll
- Decorah
- Xavier
- North Scott
- Solon
- Oskaloosa
- Norwalk
- Lewis Central
- Heelan
- Waverly-Shell Rock
- Clear Creek-Amana
- Harlan
- Western Dubuque
- Pella
- Spencer
A few wrinkles: a Spencer win over Heelan really shouldn't mean much to either one, they'd still almost certainly both be in the playoffs. Heelan would probably drop to #11, behind Harlan, and Spencer would still be #14.
If the rather unlikely set of all three of the three-way tie possibilities came to pass (meaning all of Waverly-Shell Rock/Decorah/Independence/Xavier/Western Dubuque/Marion/Clear Creek-Amana/North Scott/Assumption were automatic qualifiers), there would be only one at-large spot available. That would go to Heelan (if they defeat Spencer) or Harlan (if Heelan loses and Harlan defeats Winterset).
Anyway, given the likely outcomes of this coming week's games, my thoughts about playoff brackets really haven't changed. If the state wants to make an attempt to seed, get the top 4 RPI teams to the semis (which I project to be SBL, Xavier, Lewis Central, and North Scott), and not have two high-RPI squads meet in the first round, a possible bracket could look like this:
Carroll at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Heelan at Norwalk
----
Spencer at Lewis Central
Harlan at Oskaloosa
----
----
Waverly-Shell Rock at Xavier
Western Dubuque at Decorah
----
Pella at North Scott
Clear Creek-Amana at Solon
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