The Playoff Guesser, the Final Week

[KidSilverhair]

Except for D-5, the teams that could wrap up district titles with wins did it Friday night - although Carroll and Norwalk certainly kept their fans' hearts beating fast with battling back from behind to get their victories. We know the district champions in 6 of the 9 districts:

D-1: Sergeant Bluff-Luton (Heelan can tie with a win over Spencer and an SBL loss to Storm Lake, but SBL holds the tiebreaker)

D-2: Carroll (Boone can tie with a win over Webster City and a Carroll loss to Dallas Center-Grimes, but Carroll holds the tiebreaker)

D-6: Solon (the winner of Mount Pleasant-Washington can tie if Solon loses to Fairfield, but Solon has the tiebreaker over both)

D-7: Oskaloosa (Pella can tie with a win over Grinnell if Oskaloosa loses to South Tama, but Oskaloosa has the tiebreaker)

D-8: Norwalk

D-9: Lewis Central (Harlan can tie with a win over Winterset if Lewis Central loses to ADM, but Lewis Central has the tiebreaker)

The situation in the other three districts is exactly the same - one team can win the district outright with a victory on Friday, but with a loss the potential of a three-way tie exists.

In D-3, Decorah wins the title by beating Independence Friday. An Independence win, along with a Waverly-Shell Rock win over Charles City, sets up a three-way tie with Waverly-Shell Rock, Decorah, and Independence all in the playoffs (WSR probably gets the title by RPI). Losses by both Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock mean Independence wins the district with the head-to-head over Decorah.

In D-4, it's Xavier who can win the district outright by defeating Marion. A Marion win plus a Western Dubuque win over Maquoketa brings a three-way tie, with Xavier, Western Dubuque, and Marion all in the playoffs (Xavier would get the championship by RPI). Losses by both Xavier and Western Dubuque give Marion the title (head-to-head over Xavier).

In D-5, North Scott wins the championship with a win over Davenport Assumption. An Assumption win plus a Clear Creek-Amana win over Central DeWitt means a three-way tie, with CCA, North Scott, and Assumption all making the playoffs (probably CCA gets the championship by RPI). Losses by both North Scott and CCA make Assumption the district champion with the head-to-head over North Scott.

So that's the situation with district titles and automatic qualifiers. How does RPI shake out for the rest of the field? With my projections of what likely will happen this week, things really haven't changed much from what I expected last week. The district champions should end up like this:

• SBL
• Carroll
• Decorah
• Xavier
• North Scott
• Solon
• Oskaloosa
• Norwalk
• Lewis Central

The seven at-larges by RPI should be:

• Heelan
• Waverly-Shell Rock
• Clear Creek-Amana
• Harlan
• Western Dubuque
• Pella
• Spencer

The winner of Washington-Mount Pleasant would be the first team out (although a Mount Pleasant win also means Denison-Schleswig and Glenwood might be in that RPI mix, too).

A few wrinkles: a Spencer win over Heelan really shouldn't mean much to either one, they'd still almost certainly both be in the playoffs. Heelan would probably drop to #11, behind Harlan, and Spencer would still be #14.
If the rather unlikely set of all three of the three-way tie possibilities came to pass (meaning all of Waverly-Shell Rock/Decorah/Independence/Xavier/Western Dubuque/Marion/Clear Creek-Amana/North Scott/Assumption were automatic qualifiers), there would be only one at-large spot available. That would go to Heelan (if they defeat Spencer) or Harlan (if Heelan loses and Harlan defeats Winterset).

Anyway, given the likely outcomes of this coming week's games, my thoughts about playoff brackets really haven't changed. If the state wants to make an attempt to seed, get the top 4 RPI teams to the semis (which I project to be SBL, Xavier, Lewis Central, and North Scott), and not have two high-RPI squads meet in the first round, a possible bracket could look like this:

Carroll at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Heelan at Norwalk
----
Spencer at Lewis Central
Harlan at Oskaloosa
----
----
Waverly-Shell Rock at Xavier
Western Dubuque at Decorah
----
Pella at North Scott
Clear Creek-Amana at Solon

 

[Iowasportsnut]

Nice work Kid. Your dedication is impressive.

 

[La_Fleur]

When do the pairings come out?

 

[KidSilverhair]

When do the pairings come out?

All the postseason manual says is that the list of playoff qualifiers will be posted late Friday night after the games have been completed. I imagine the brackets will be out late Friday/early Saturday (RPI is instant once you have game results). Although haven’t they gone with Saturday morning bracket announcements recently?

Sorry I’m not much help. While most years the posting would come laaaate/overnight on Friday, seems like I recall waiting to see the brackets posted sometime on Saturday morning 2 years ago, while I was driving to Chicago.

 

[ronsss]

All the postseason manual says is that the list of playoff qualifiers will be posted late Friday night after the games have been completed. I imagine the brackets will be out late Friday/early Saturday (RPI is instant once you have game results). Although haven’t they gone with Saturday morning bracket announcements recently?

Sorry I’m not much help. While most years the posting would come laaaate/overnight on Friday, seems like I recall waiting to see the brackets posted sometime on Saturday morning 2 years ago, while I was driving to Chicago.

i am not a real fan of the rpi system, i know its hard to have a system that is perfect, but i still like the playoff system that has 2 teams from each district..i liked that because more football to watch at the end of the season, more games....

 

[Iowasportsnut]

Prediction:
Carroll at SBL
Harlan at Norwalk

Spencer at LC
Heelan at Oscaloosa

Pella at Xavier
CCA at Decorah

WSR at Solon
WD at North Scott

 

[Iowasportsnut]

Are you assuming Heelan wins over Spencer? Would you change Spencer and Heelan if Spencer wins? If this is right sets up a pretty good path for Harlan to get to the Dome and not have to play Lewis Central.

Yes, I'm assuming Heelan beats Spencer. I wouldn't say Harlan has a good path to the Dome. Harlan is a good football team, but SBL and or LC are both difficult paths.

I think Carroll and Spencer could potentially be flipped in their first round games as well - Carroll at LC and Spencer at SBL. But I'll stick to my original prediction.

 

[StatewidePundit]

With RPI involved could go like this.

Pella at Xavier
CCA at Decorah

WSR at Solon
WD at North Scott


Carroll at SBL
Heelan at Norwalk

Spencer at LC
Harlan at Osky

 

[crus8rs]

from what I've seen if Heelan would lose they would be passed by Harlan but not by Spencer..so Heelan and Harlan would change places with Norwalk and Oskaloosa but Spencer would still end up at LC unless they wold pass Heelan.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I’d be a bit surprised if the state sent Heelan all the way to Oskaloosa. I mean, they might, but it seems like a long way to go for not much seeding benefit.

Carroll is going to be the bottom seed RPI-wise; it would make sense to send them to SBL, who will likely be #1. Spencer & Norwalk could be the next two lowest RPIs (even if Spencer beats Heelan), so it doesn’t make seeding sense to have them meet. Spencer (the last at-large) going to Lewis Central (RPI 2 or 3) seems right. Then Norwalk gets to host, but they should get matched against a high-RPI at-large - Heelan, if they beat Spencer, maybe even if they don’t. Seeding-wise, yeah, if Heelan loses to Spencer they might fall below Harlan in RPI, but it wouldn’t be by much. Would that be enough to have Heelan go all the way to Oskaloosa? Maybe .. I don’t think so, myself, but I’m not making the pairings.

Pella at Xavier is an idea I considered in my thoughts, and it’s certainly possible. The east at-large RPIs will probably be ranked Waverly-Shell Rock/Clear Creek-Amana/Pella/Western Dubuque, and they wouldn’t put Xavier against WD ... so maybe Pella would be the call with WD going to North Scott, CCA to Decorah and WSR to Solon, just like iowasportsnut says above. A reasonable bracket.

That means the Pella radio guys would be setting up at Xavier about 2:30 for their pregame show, I guess ...

 

[crus8rs]

Staying as close to true RPI as possible and avoiding district match-ups 1st round...

Carroll @ SBL
Spencer @ CBLC
Heelan @ Norwalk
Harlan @ Osky

Pella @ Xavier
CCA @ Decorah
WD @ Solon (or WSR @ Solon)
WSR @ N Scott (or WD @ N Scott)

 

[hoyle8]

Does anyone else think it is wrong that a 1 loss team is ahead of 3 undefeated teams and one who beat them by 28?

 

[BrittDelp28]

Oh my gosh it IS just a terrible thing isn't it... What will we ever do will we? My guess is that if the team you love is so good no one will have to worry about it! Right? Worry about something you can control!!!

 

[PNation]

The problem with it is that Xavier vs Lewis Central probably happens in the Semis when that should be the title game.

 

[Iowasportsnut]

I think the state will get it right and put the top 4 RPIs in separate brackets, whether they separate LC and Xavier TBD. I'm a believer you play the teams in front of you, no matter when, where or who. The best teams don't care who they play and they take care of business.

 

[BrittDelp28]

Wow... Somebody who isn't bitchin about the RPI. Kudos Sir.

 

[La_Fleur]

Wow Pella at Xavier for a possible first round game. I think you can make the case that they're two of the top three teams in the state. That'd be a really good team going home in round one. It'll be interesting to see how much they favor geography over RPI in setting it up.

I think the RPI has been good in some respects but I just can't get past the fact that SBL is ranked #1 over Lewis Central after Lewis Central blew the doors off of them in week 1.

 

[BrittDelp28]

Make a phone call to Boone and get it figured out then... Seems pretty easy to me if it messes you up.

 

[La_Fleur]

Make a phone call to Boone and get it figured out then... Seems pretty easy to me if it messes you up.

Is this Todd Tharp's burner account? Listen, I think it's fair to say that it's improved but still has some flaws. Like a win over an 8 win 1A team being worth the same as a win over an 8 win 4A team. BCMoore typically is a pretty good predictor but that might encourage teams to run up the score.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Wow Pella at Xavier for a possible first round game. I think you can make the case that they're two of the top three teams in the state. That'd be a really good team going home in round one. It'll be interesting to see how much they favor geography over RPI in setting it up.

I think the RPI has been good in some respects but I just can't get past the fact that SBL is ranked #1 over Lewis Central after Lewis Central blew the doors off of them in week 1.

It seems nuts that you could have Pella-Xavier in the first round, and even more nuts that it actually makes sense seeding-wise. The likely at-large teams are pretty much all ridiculously good (Heelan, WSR, CCA, Harlan, Pella; even Western Dubuque and Spencer are solid - you could have Heelan, WSR, CCA, and Pella all at 9-1, as road teams in round one!).

When I get a chance I’ll run Pella’s RPI to see what it would be if they’d beaten Oskaloosa instead of losing by one point in overtime. I have a feeling it’s going to be pretty high.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Okay, running it quickly has Pella at approximately .6666 if they had beaten Oskaloosa (and things go as I project this week). That would put them 6th overall, and 6th best district champion [their RPI would be above Carroll, Norwalk, and Decorah (barely), and still behind Heelan]. They’d rank just below Solon and just ahead of CCA and Harlan.

So not quite the radical change in ranking I thought might have resulted from that single point. Pella will be a dangerous first-round opponent for whoever they face, though.

 

[ronsss]

harlan makes too many mistakes in allmost every game to be considered a contender. last week against creston was probably the first game all year that they played error free football...against adm, 10 penaltys for 108 yd.....against lewis central, many mistakes in that one too

 

[KidSilverhair]

And by “9-1” above I really meant “8-1” ... I can count, I swear.

Anyway, chances are we could see:

• Xavier, Lewis Central, and Solon all 9-0
• SBL, WSR, CCA, North Scott, Oskaloosa, and Pella all 8-1 (maybe Heelan as well - so perhaps 10 teams with one loss or fewer)
• Decorah, Western Dubuque, and Harlan all 7-2 (plus Spencer and Heelan if Spencer wins Friday; otherwise Spencer is probably in at 6-3)
• And then Norwalk and Carroll, either 6-3 or 5-4.

Perhaps outside looking in at 6-3 could be Independence (although they’d be in the field with a win), Central DeWitt, ADM, Boone, Bondurant-Farrar, and the Washington-Mount Pleasant winner. But overall, it looks like a pretty decent selection for a playoff field.

 

[PNation]

In 3A this year I truly think that the RPI will give us the best 16 or at least 15 + Carroll who is a district champ, and you can't fault them for being in a district that wasn't very good this year. The same can be said for 4A as well.

The problem with RPI is really in 2A, 1A, and A. You have teams in those classifications who have a nice record by playing a weak schedule of lower classed teams.

 

[Iowasportsnut]

Harlan is playing well and you do not want to see them on the playoffs. They are very good.

Agreed. Putting who ever Harlan plays first round on notice right now - they will come into your house and beat you, unless you are ready to go and play the best game of the year. We've seen it too many times, you don't bet against Harlan and Bladt in the post season.

 

[leeps]

Prediction:
Carroll at SBL
Harlan at Norwalk

Spencer at LC
Heelan at Oscaloosa

Pella at Xavier
CCA at Decorah

WSR at Solon
WD at North Scott

Is it going to be seeded straight up based on RPI 1-16 and district champ being the home team with the exception of the 9th district champ? What I wasn't clear on is if RPI would trump a district champ in seeding?

 

[leeps]

In 3A this year I truly think that the RPI will give us the best 16 or at least 15 + Carroll who is a district champ, and you can't fault them for being in a district that wasn't very good this year. The same can be said for 4A as well.

The problem with RPI is really in 2A, 1A, and A. You have teams in those classifications who have a nice record by playing a weak schedule of lower classed teams.

Going forward there isn't much incentive for A, 1A, 2A teams to play up. They risk a loss and that hurting their RPI. I am sure this will be taken into consideration with future scheduling.

 

[privateer13]

It depends. Obviously you would rather win the game regardless of class. However, If you play up and lose to a team that ends up with a really good record that helps your RPI.

Tell that to Regina this year. The RPI shows you need wins first and foremost.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Is it going to be seeded straight up based on RPI 1-16 and district champ being the home team with the exception of the 9th district champ? What I wasn't clear on is if RPI would trump a district champ in seeding?

I don’t think we know. We are all guessing they’ll bracket in 4 groups, with each of the top 4 RPIs per group. The manual says they’ll try to seed by RPI, but no district rematches (at least between champs & runners up) and geography can be a factor.

Some projections I’ve seen show Carroll as a 9 seed (pairing them with Norwalk), because they won their district, I guess. Will the state do that, or treat them like the 16th-best RPI they are? I don’t know. These same projections send Heelan to Lewis Central, which means 2 of the top 5 RPIs meet in the first round. I wouldn’t think the state wants to do that ... but how will they seed Carroll? I don’t know.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Tell that to Regina this year. The RPI shows you need wins first and foremost.

This is a good point. Regina scheduled Xavier, Williamsburg, and Pella Christian in non-district (good programs that should help their RPI). But they lost all of those games and now have to beat undefeated Dike-New Hartford to even make the playoffs.

 

[Iowasportsnut]

Of the top four teams, who is most likely to lose and not make the Dome?

 

[KidSilverhair]

Is it going to be seeded straight up based on RPI 1-16 and district champ being the home team with the exception of the 9th district champ? What I wasn't clear on is if RPI would trump a district champ in seeding?

Just for grins, here’s a straight-seeded bracket, without regard to geography (projecting this Friday’s results, but only in 3A, so they might not be exact rankings) (it’s also an impossible bracket, because Heelan can’t host and Norwalk will host, and the state won’t pair WSR/Decorah - but otherwise this isn’t terrible):

#16 Carroll at #1 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
#9 Waverly Shell Rock at #8 Decorah
——
#12 Western Dubuque at #5 Solon
#13 Pella at #4 North Scott
——
——
#14 Spencer at #3 Lewis Central
#11 Harlan at #6 Heelan
——
#10 Clear Creek Amana at #7 Oskaloosa
#15 Norwalk at #2 Xavier

So, to fix the hosting issues, have Norwalk pair with the best road team: that’s easy and fixes both problems, #6 Heelan at #15 Norwalk. Fixing the D-3 rematch is a bit dicier; I guess send #10 CCA to #8 Decorah. Readjusting down the line gives us something like this, which is geographically problematic:

#16 Carroll at #1 SBL
#10 CCA at #8 Decorah
——
#11 Harlan at #5 Solon
#12 Western Dubuque at #4 North Scott
——
——
#13 Pella at #3 Lewis Central
#6 Heelan at #15 Norwalk
——
#9 WSR at #7 Oskaloosa
#14 Spencer at #2 Xavier

 

[KidSilverhair]

As an aside, the projected RPIs for Oskaloosa/Decorah/WSR/CCA/Harlan are all pretty close. Some slight variations in OWP or OOWP could juggle the order very easily.

 

[ronsss]

Harlan is playing well and you do not want to see them on the playoffs. They are very good.

i do want to see them in the playoffs...but going against teams in the playoffs( lot of quality teams this year), u cannot have 10 penalties in a game and expect to win.harlan has made many penalities in allmost all games played this year..i have watched them and listen to them on the internet......THIS IS A PENALITY PRONE TEAM...ask coach bladt if this team makes penalites

 

[cruhawk]

Make a phone call to Boone and get it figured out then... Seems pretty easy to me if it messes you up.

A might touchy there......hey?

 

[leeps]

Just for grins, here’s a straight-seeded bracket, without regard to geography (projecting this Friday’s results, but only in 3A, so they might not be exact rankings) (it’s also an impossible bracket, because Heelan can’t host and Norwalk will host, and the state won’t pair WSR/Decorah - but otherwise this isn’t terrible):

#16 Carroll at #1 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
#9 Waverly Shell Rock at #8 Decorah
——
#12 Western Dubuque at #5 Solon
#13 Pella at #4 North Scott
——
——
#14 Spencer at #3 Lewis Central
#11 Harlan at #6 Heelan
——
#10 Clear Creek Amana at #7 Oskaloosa
#15 Norwalk at #2 Xavier

So, to fix the hosting issues, have Norwalk pair with the best road team: that’s easy and fixes both problems, #6 Heelan at #15 Norwalk. Fixing the D-3 rematch is a bit dicier; I guess send #10 CCA to #8 Decorah. Readjusting down the line gives us something like this, which is geographically problematic:

#16 Carroll at #1 SBL
#10 CCA at #8 Decorah
——
#11 Harlan at #5 Solon
#12 Western Dubuque at #4 North Scott
——
——
#13 Pella at #3 Lewis Central
#6 Heelan at #15 Norwalk
——
#9 WSR at #7 Oskaloosa
#14 Spencer at #2 Xavier

THIS. This is what I want to see happen. Some very good match ups.

 

[leeps]

It depends. Obviously you would rather win the game regardless of class. However, If you play up and lose to a team that ends up with a really good record that helps your RPI.

The potential loss hurts more though in my opinion.

 

[Iowasportsnut]

Good luck tonight to all teams! Stay healthy and have fun. It's the final week of the season and for many the final game of their high school career. Enjoy!

 

[wolverine55]

I had a question on how much one individual game can effect the RPI rating? Mt. Pleasant and Washington are both on the bubble it appears and the winner of their game may not get in. But...Keokuk had to take a forfeit earlier in the season on a game they won on the field, so just wondering how this may effect those teams.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I've tried to keep my RPI spreadsheet updated with whatever records the state has listed, and mine is current with Keokuk at 1-7. So that forfeit is already "baked in," so to speak.

Anyway, taking another gander at things, it looks like Spencer (with a loss to Heelan) would have an RPI around .5890 or so. Washington's RPI with a win actually gets them around .6156, so they have a real shot at sneaking in as that last at-large. What they need is a good night from their non-district opponents: Marion will probably lose to Xavier, and Oskaloosa is a likely winner over South Tama, so they need to cross their fingers and hope Liberty can beat Clinton and West Liberty knocks off Tipton. A loss by either or both will probably drop their RPI a little bit.

If Mount Pleasant wins tonight, their RPI is around .5772, so they'll need some help to get past Spencer's number. Their non-district opponents are likely winners in Clear Creek-Amana (over Central DeWitt) and Pella (over Grinnell), and Ottumwa has a good shot to win against 0-8 Mason City. So even if 0-8 Central Lee can't get their first win tonight, Mount Pleasant's OWP should give them a bit of a bump.

This isn't calculating the OOWP for anybody, or the OWP for Spencer, so there's still some variations in play - but needless to say, Washington has a better shot at a playoff spot than I expected if they can defeat Mount Pleasant tonight (and replacing Spencer with Washington in the brackets simplifies things a bit on the east, but might force either Heelan or Harlan to go to Lewis Central for the first round).