The Playoff Guesser, the Final Week

[KidSilverhair]

Okay, why not, I looked at Spencer's non-district opponents. Spirit Lake (6-2) has a good shot to defeat Garner-Hayfield-Ventura (3-5), and Humboldt is likely to win over 0-8 Perry. So wins by either Webster City (over Boone) or MOC/Floyd Valley (over Okoboji-Milford) would probably boost Spencer's RPI a tad. If they both lose (so their non-district opponents go .500 for the final week), it'll probably drop a little, which gives Washington or Mount Pleasant a little help.

Again, not considering OOWP at all, except for 3A opponents.

Obviously, the biggest factor in RPI is your own record (each game accounts for 11% of your own winning percentage factor, while each game by your opponents accounts for 1.2% of that OWP factor). But when you're talking about the difference between .5772 and .5890 in RPI, that doesn't take a whole lot of movement to send one team to the playoffs and have the other stay home.

 

[wolverine55]

Thank you for that information! I knew it was accounted for already, but was just wondering how a 2-6 Keokuk team would factor into the percentages. Thanks again!

 

[Iowasportsnut]

Spencer is going to be in the playoffs based on RPI regardless of results this week.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Spencer is going to be in the playoffs based on RPI regardless of results this week.

I was pretty sure of that, too, until I plugged in projected results for this week. All I can tell you is a Washington win and a Spencer loss might - might - move Washington past Spencer in RPI.

STOP THE PRESSES. HOLD OFF. Turns out I messed up and gave Washington an extra win. Sorry to get everybody's hopes up ... trying to run too many scenarios made me screw up an entry and leave it in there wrong. So back up ... Spencer is pretty much assured to get in, Washington probably can't, even by beating Mount Pleasant. I'm not going to go in again at this point and project tonight's games (it's getting too late, and I'll probably just screw it up again), but a Washington win and a Spencer loss looks to still leave Spencer about .0200 ahead in RPI.

Really sorry about that.