Playoff RPI and Projections

[straw1397]

1 Valley 0.7083
2CF 0.6943
3 Ank Cent 0.6855
4Dowling 0.6752
5CRK 0.6492
6SEP 0.6339
7Ankeny 0.5967
8LM 0.5941
9Waukee 0.5902
10CRP 0.5871
11DS 0.5852
12Bett 0.5821
13FD 0.5677
14Urb 0.5660
15DMR 0.5609
16Ind 0.5389

1 Valley-16 Ind
8 Waukee-9 Ank

4 Ank Cen-13 FD
5 CRK-12 Bett

2 CF-15 DMR
7 LM-10 CRP

3 DC-14 Urb
6 SEP- 11 DS

What to do with Bett? Switch with FD or DS?

 

[screwloose]

If those are the final 16, in that order...

BRACKET #1
Indianola @ West Des Moines Valley
Des Moines Roosevelt @ Waukee
NOTE: Pretty straight forward bracket here. West Des Moines Valley gets fed the lowest qualifier since they're the top seed. They also get Waukee in their bracket, as they would be the lowest seeded of the home teams in the First Round.

BRACKET #2
Dubuque Senior @ Cedar Falls
Bettendorf @ Linn-Mar
NOTE: The all "eastern" bracket. By seeding, Bettendorf should be playing at Cedar Falls and Dubuque Senior at Linn-Mar. But their seeds are a wash, as they're right next to each other. Setting the bracket this way, gives the traveling teams a more direct line and shorter travel in the First Round. It also keeps Bettendorf no further than Cedar Falls, should they win their first game.

BRACKET #3
Fort Dodge @ West Des Moines Dowling
Ankeny @ Southeast Polk
NOTE: Another straight forward bracket. West Des Moines Dowling jumps Ankeny Centennial for the overall #3 by virtue of the head-to-head/side-by-side RPI clause. Fort Dodge, by seed, should be sent to Ankeny Centennial, but their seed is right next to Urbandale, so that's a wash. It also avoids the district rematch. Also, it assures that Fort Dodge goes no further than Polk County should they win their first game. Southeast Polk and Ankeny are the top two at-larges and paired accordingly.

BRACKET #4
Urbandale @ Ankeny Centennial
Cedar Rapids Prairie @ Cedar Rapids Kennedy
NOTE: The final two "eastern" teams are paired together here. With the aforementioned Urbandale and Ankeny Centennial seedings and pairing, this sets up a much more manageable Linn County vs. Polk County quarterfinal.

 

[mthawkeyes]

This seems like a well-thought out, reasonable bracket based on the guidelines of RPI and reasonable travel. In other words, it seems unlikely the IHSAA would go with this.

 

[straw1397]

How is that fair or make sense to put #8 with #15 and make 2 top 7 seeds play each other?

If Valley can go to Kennedy and Johnston to Muscatine and other examples, in the regular season why not do it for the playoffs?

I get trying to limit travel, but what's the point of ranking/ seeding teams if they really don't mean anything?

 

[screwloose]

The reason they try to limit travel in the playoffs is because the state reimburses those who do travel. During the regular season, that's on the schools, not the IHSAA.

 

[franky1967]

How is that fair or make sense to put #8 with #15 and make 2 top 7 seeds play each other?

If Valley can go to Kennedy and Johnston to Muscatine and other examples, in the regular season why not do it for the playoffs?

I get trying to limit travel, but what's the point of ranking/ seeding teams if they really don't mean anything?

Well I have been saying that in this post and others for quite some time and no one cared to listen.

I am total agreement with you, on this

 

[franky1967]

I think they will follow the RPI for the playoffs as close as to what it is, failure to do so just shows you that it's not worth having a system in place if you are truly not going to us it

 

[ISUChip]

How is that fair or make sense to put #8 with #15 and make 2 top 7 seeds play each other?

It's the difference between being a district champ and being an at-large team. The bracket is put together in several steps, not just "oh hey, these are #1-16 and we're done."

 

[franky1967]

It's the difference between being a district champ and being an at-large team. The bracket is put together in several steps, not just "oh hey, these are #1-16 and we're done."

That does not make any sense at all, like he said why have it at all, if your ranking and seed do not count for anything.

What don't you have let 1 and 2, 15 and 16 play each other?

 

[ISUChip]

That does not make any sense at all, like he said why have it at all, if your ranking and seed do not count for anything.

The RPI does count, though. It's applied to the two groups (champs and at-large) in different ways, which is apparently a super hard thing for people to grasp, because the bracket needs to be filled in a certain order.

*Rank the champs to place them on the bracket. They all get to host, so they have to be on separate lines.
*Rank the at-larges to determine who gets in. The top one gets to host; they go on the open host line.
*Slot the remaining at-larges; ideally #1 AL would play #2 AL, and the rest would go inverse of the champs.
*Identify any issues with geography and/or district rematches, and flip teams accordingly.

It's like putting together the NCAA basketball bracket. They don't just walk in the door, drop #1-64 on the board, and walk out. It's all done in segments.

 

[franky1967]

The RPI does count, though. It's applied to the two groups (champs and at-large) in different ways, which is apparently a super hard thing for people to grasp, because the bracket needs to be filled in a certain order.

*Rank the champs to place them on the bracket. They all get to host, so they have to be on separate lines.
*Rank the at-larges to determine who gets in. The top one gets to host; they go on the open host line.
*Slot the remaining at-larges; ideally #1 AL would play #2 AL, and the rest would go inverse of the champs.
*Identify any issues with geography and/or district rematches, and flip teams accordingly.

It's like putting together the NCAA basketball bracket. They don't just walk in the door, drop #1-64 on the board, and walk out. It's all done in segments.

The hard thing for people to grasp is the RPI system is a joke. If you want to use the NCCA tourney as an example, then you better split the state into 4 regions and seed those four.

What is the theory of the RPI System and then we will continue the discussion

 

[straw1397]

just throwing out a couple hypotheticals

What if SCE got in- should they play FD because that is the closest?

What if #2 in the RPI was a runner up? Should they play #15 or the second highest rated at large team?

 

[woodsiding]

I am not sure why anyone has a problem with the system. Winning a district has to mean something and it does. Non-district has to mean something and it does. The best teams should meet later and they do. There should be some common sense on travel. If a 1 seed has to play a 14/15 instead of a 16, its really not a big deal is it? I know there are some that like to complain about anything the state does, but there isn't anything to complain about on thos one.

 

[screwloose]

What if Sioux City East got in, should they play Fort Dodge? If one of them hosted, it would make sense geographically. I think a lot of people forget, the state's manual says, in black and white, geography is a deciding factor in pairings.

 

[Reasoned]

Look, this isn’t the NFL or NCAA, the IHSAA does a pretty decent job selecting the best 16 teams to make the PO’s. They also have made positive changes in how the PO brackets are structured taking into account several factors including demonstrated team strength and travel considerations. Is it perfect? Probably not but in comparison to watching Illinois wringing their hands over the conference vs district format makes me glad to be on the “right” side of the river.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I really doubt the state would match an 8 seed with a 15 seed. That’s an unfairly easy game for the 8 seed (who ideally would play the 9) and an unfairly harder game for the 2 seed, who should get the 15.

I agree with some of what ISUChip is saying, mainly the part that you can’t do a pure 16-team bracket (1v16, 2v15) for several reasons:

• District champions get to host, regardless of their seeding, along with the highest seeded at-large. This means if the normal seeding would result in a matchup of two home teams, or two traveling teams, adjustments will have to be made.
• The state will avoid rematches of district champs & second-place finishers from the same district, if at all possible.
• Geography is the last factor; the state will move matchups around to avoid something like Burlington v Sioux City East in the first round, or Hempstead v Council Bluffs Jefferson.

The notion that the state seeds district champions separately from at-larges, though, is preposterous. If a district champ happens to have the 12th or 14th or 16th best RPI, they’re not going to slot them in at the 7 or 8 seed spot in the bracket (the IHSAA postseason manual says they’ll bracket according to RPI to the extent possible, which means considering the factors above. I can’t understand why people are having such a difficult time understanding what the state has posted for all of us to read). Hosting a game is an entirely different factor from seeding, as to who you’ll play.

Look at this hypothetical RPI ranking:

1. Team A (won district)
2. Team B (win district)
3. Team C (at large)
4. Team D (at large)
5. .
6. .
7. .
8. .
9. .
10. .
11. .
12. .
13. Team M (won district)

A normal bracket would have the 13 seed playing at the 4. In this case, though, the 13 seed gets to host, since they won their district. BUT, since the 4 seed would have to travel as the 2nd at-large, they’re still gonna match those two up in the first round ... it’ll just be the 4 seed at the 13, instead of the other way around.

All you earn by winning your district is a home game. You don’t also get an easier first-round game. I can see the state making a 15-3 game, or a 15-4 or even 15-1 game, based on those factors above ... I can’t imagine a 15-8 happening.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Here’s the pertinent wording from the IHSAA postseason manual (bolding mine):

“All attempts will be made to create as close to a “true” bracketing format using the RPI to seed to the first two rounds. Geography will be the final factor when creating brackets.”

Nothing about district champions getting a more favorable seed than at-larges.

 

[ISUChip]

I also wonder if people have looked any bracket other than 4A from last year. Numbers are the RPI order of the qualifying teams. Home team listed first. Asterisk = district champ.

3A:
1* vs 14 / 15* vs 11
4* vs 13 / 5* vs 8
3* vs 12 / 6* vs 9
2* vs 16* / 7* vs 10

2A:
1* vs 16* / 15* vs 8
4* vs 10 / 14* vs 6
3* vs 13 / 12* vs 5
2* vs 9 / 7* vs 11

1A:
1* vs 12 / 9* vs 11*
4* vs 16 / 10* vs 5
3* vs 14 / 6* vs 15
2* vs 13 / 7* vs 8

A:
1* vs 16* / 5* vs 12
4* vs 15* / 14* vs 6
3* vs 10 / 8* vs 13
2* vs 11 / 9* vs 7

8-man:
1* vs 13 / 16* vs 9
4* vs 10 / 5* vs 12
3* vs 15 / 7* vs 14
2* vs 11 / 6* vs 8

 

[franky1967]

I also wonder if people have looked any bracket other than 4A from last year. Numbers are the RPI order of the qualifying teams. Home team listed first. Asterisk = district champ.

3A:
1* vs 14 / 15* vs 11
4* vs 13 / 5* vs 8
3* vs 12 / 6* vs 9
2* vs 16* / 7* vs 10

2A:
1* vs 16* / 15* vs 8
4* vs 10 / 14* vs 6
3* vs 13 / 12* vs 5
2* vs 9 / 7* vs 11

1A:
1* vs 12 / 9* vs 11*
4* vs 16 / 10* vs 5
3* vs 14 / 6* vs 15
2* vs 13 / 7* vs 8

A:
1* vs 16* / 5* vs 12
4* vs 15* / 14* vs 6
3* vs 10 / 8* vs 13
2* vs 11 / 9* vs 7

8-man:
1* vs 13 / 16* vs 9
4* vs 10 / 5* vs 12
3* vs 15 / 7* vs 14
2* vs 11 / 6* vs 8

I have not looked but could it be that because the smaller classes have more teams than 4a and maybe spread further across the State?

Also I have not looked at their districs in awhile, but it use to be they had more teams in the districs and I am thinking only the champs and runner-ups made the playoffs.

So with that being said really most all the short travel was eliminated through district play. I am just wondering, not stirring the pot

 

[KidSilverhair]

Well, that’s ... not what I expected. There’s a 15 v 8 right there. What do you know.

I’ll look into this a little more when I have time. I do know the 15v11 in 3A last year had two of those extenuating factors (Spencer couldn’t play SBL, since they were top two in the same district; Spencer is really distant from anybody *not* in D-1, so Norwalk was a geographic choice).

But also belying the idea that district winners get priority in seeding is the fact that Carroll, who won D-2 but had the 16th best RPI, still got sent to the 2 seed Lewis Central.

But I withdraw my statement that the state would never match a 15 and an 8, because they’ve done it.

(That 2A bracket from last year is all kind of messed up. Man, that’s a disaster. Again, though, if the idea is district winners get a break, why is the 4 seed playing the 10 instead of the 13? Why does the 2 have to play the 9 instead of the 15? I believe those have more to do with geography than separately seeding district winners and at-larges.)

 

[screwloose]

Theoretically, any team seeded 1-8 should beat a team seeded 9-16. Yes, upsets happen, but the mechanism used for seeding has to be followed as if it were gospel, in a sense. When the quarterfinals come around, those seeded 1-4 should always beat those 5-8. And so it goes on.

A 15/11 match-up is extreme and probably had some extreme geographic circumstances. But the bottom line is this, the state's ultimate mission is to get the four best teams to the UNI-Dome. All four of those seeded teams are separated and they go from there.

 

[areukiddingme]

I really doubt the state would match an 8 seed with a 15 seed. That’s an unfairly easy game for the 8 seed (who ideally would play the 9) and an unfairly harder game for the 2 seed, who should get the 15.

I agree with some of what ISUChip is saying, mainly the part that you can’t do a pure 16-team bracket (1v16, 2v15) for several reasons:

• District champions get to host, regardless of their seeding, along with the highest seeded at-large. This means if the normal seeding would result in a matchup of two home teams, or two traveling teams, adjustments will have to be made.
• The state will avoid rematches of district champs & second-place finishers from the same district, if at all possible.
• Geography is the last factor; the state will move matchups around to avoid something like Burlington v Sioux City East in the first round, or Hempstead v Council Bluffs Jefferson.

The notion that the state seeds district champions separately from at-larges, though, is preposterous. If a district champ happens to have the 12th or 14th or 16th best RPI, they’re not going to slot them in at the 7 or 8 seed spot in the bracket (the IHSAA postseason manual says they’ll bracket according to RPI to the extent possible, which means considering the factors above. I can’t understand why people are having such a difficult time understanding what the state has posted for all of us to read). Hosting a game is an entirely different factor from seeding, as to who you’ll play.

Look at this hypothetical RPI ranking:

1. Team A (won district)
2. Team B (win district)
3. Team C (at large)
4. Team D (at large)
5. .
6. .
7. .
8. .
9. .
10. .
11. .
12. .
13. Team M (won district)

A normal bracket would have the 13 seed playing at the 4. In this case, though, the 13 seed gets to host, since they won their district. BUT, since the 4 seed would have to travel as the 2nd at-large, they’re still gonna match those two up in the first round ... it’ll just be the 4 seed at the 13, instead of the other way around.

All you earn by winning your district is a home game. You don’t also get an easier first-round game. I can see the state making a 15-3 game, or a 15-4 or even 15-1 game, based on those factors above ... I can’t imagine a 15-8 happening.

The state matched #8 with #16 last year in class A and made West Hancock travel to #8 (RPI last year)Hinton and of course The Beast Won and then came back to Akron the following week and won that, so the State does not always take geography into account or seeds. they do what they want

 

[redmen33]

How I see the Final RPI shaking out (district champs in bold):

1. Valley
2. Cedar Falls
3. Dowling (jumps Centennial due to H2H)
4. Centennial
5. CR Kennedy
6. SE Polk
7. Linn-Mar
8. Ankeny
9. Bettendorf
10. Waukee (jumps CRP due to H2H)
11. CR Prairie
12. Dubuque Senior
13. Urbandale
14. DM Roosevelt (jumps FD due to H2H)
15. Fort Dodge
16. Indianola

The district champs get to host as does SE Polk. So here is how I see the brackets shaping out. This takes into account distances and makes the most sense in my opinion.

Bracket 1
16) Indianola @ 1) Valley
8) Ankeny @ 11) Waukee

Bracket 2
12) Dub Senior @ 2) Cedar Falls
9) Bettendorf @ 7) Linn-Mar

Bracket 3
14) DM Roosevelt @ 6) SE Polk
15) Ft. Dodge @ 3) Dowling

Bracket 4
13) Urbandale @ 4) Centennial
10) CR Prairie @ 5) CR Kennedy

 

[SpinningBird]

Redmen, good work. But if your RPI rankings hold, based on the new rules, wouldn't Roosevelt jump Fort Dodge because they beat them H-T-H, as would Waukee jump CR Prairie?

 

[redmen33]

Redmen, good work. But if your RPI rankings hold, based on the new rules, wouldn't Roosevelt jump Fort Dodge because they beat them H-T-H, as would Waukee jump CR Prairie?

Yes they would, just flip Ft. Dodge and DMR in bracket 3.

 

[screwloose]

Bracket 1
16) Indianola @ 1) Valley
8) Ankeny @ 11) Waukee

Bracket 2
12) Dub Senior @ 2) Cedar Falls
9) Bettendorf @ 7) Linn-Mar

Bracket 3
14) Ft Dodge @ 6) SE Polk
15) DM Roosevelt @ 3) Dowling

Bracket 4
13) Urbandale @ 4) Centennial
10) CR Prairie @ 5) CR Kennedy

Finally, someone has been taking notes. Well constructed bracket. To answer Spinning Bird's questions about Waukee/Cedar Rapids Prairie and Des Moines Roosevelt/Fort Dodge reshuffle, those would probably be the case, but would have no reshaping to this particular bracket set-up. I suppose Fort Dodge and Des Moines Roosevelt could swap in Bracket 3, but it pretty much a wash.

 

[franky1967]

How I see the Final RPI shaking out (district champs in bold):

1. Valley
2. Cedar Falls
3. Dowling (jumps Centennial due to H2H)
4. Centennial
5. CR Kennedy
6. SE Polk
7. Linn-Mar
8. Ankeny
9. Bettendorf
10. Waukee (jumps CRP due to H2H)
11. CR Prairie
12. Dubuque Senior
13. Urbandale
14. DM Roosevelt (jumps FD due to H2H)
15. Fort Dodge
16. Indianola

The district champs get to host as does SE Polk. So here is how I see the brackets shaping out. This takes into account distances and makes the most sense in my opinion.

Bracket 1
16) Indianola @ 1) Valley
8) Ankeny @ 11) Waukee

Bracket 2
12) Dub Senior @ 2) Cedar Falls
9) Bettendorf @ 7) Linn-Mar

Bracket 3
14) DM Roosevelt @ 6) SE Polk
15) Ft. Dodge @ 3) Dowling

Bracket 4
13) Urbandale @ 4) Centennial
10) CR Prairie @ 5) CR Kennedy

Good work but I doubt that they will flip that many seeds no matter what their travel is.

I think that's what some people are convincing or wanting the State to do

 

[franky1967]

Good work but I doubt that they will flip that many seeds no matter what their travel is.

I think that's what some people are convincing or wanting the State to do

Actually Flip Dowling and Cedar Falls.

Bettendorf to Cedar Falls 2hrs. 20min
Bettendorf to somewhere in Des Moines 2hrs. 37min

No reason they cannot get the seeds closer to normal

 

[franky1967]

Actually Flip Dowling and Cedar Falls

Actually Flip Dowling and Cedar Falls.

Bettendorf to Cedar Falls 2hrs. 20min
Bettendorf to somewhere in Des Moines 2hrs. 37min

No reason they cannot get the seeds closer to normal

I may have made a mistake can someone look at 4a Brackets from last year and look to see if they were seeded as if it was purely RPI only, cause it does not look like it was

 

[Reasoned]

I suspect that's where the travel part comes in. Also, after looking at the newly released AP top 10 and comparing it to the RPI top 10, although there are differences in the lists, the usual suspects appear on each one sometimes in the same place (e.g., Valley #1) and sometimes quite different locations (e.g., Bett #6 AP & #11 RPI). So getting fixated on the RPI's and demanding the PO brackets mirror may not be where the smart money is (i.e., the AP ranking doesn't mirror the RPI, not unlike the FBS playoff committee's selections don't mirror the software analysis they use).

 

[oldtimefootball]

In 2018, IAHSAA was given a very straightforward RPI to work with. Top 7 RPI teams were the district winners and they only swapped an 11 seed (Urbandale) and a 12 seed (Pleasant Valley) to reduce travel. Indianola still went to Cedar Falls as the longest 1st round trip if I remember correctly.

They will have more swaps to figure out this year I presume.

 

[franky1967]

In 2018, IAHSAA was given a very straightforward RPI to work with. Top 7 RPI teams were the district winners and they only swapped an 11 seed (Urbandale) and a 12 seed (Pleasant Valley) to reduce travel. Indianola still went to Cedar Falls as the longest 1st round trip if I remember correctly.

They will have more swaps to figure out this year I presume.

Im thinking just looking at the Bracket Valley was in they put the 8th and 9yjseed in with them and I'm thinking that that was unusual

 

[oldtimefootball]

Valley was #2, Dowling was #7, so I think that one was true to form.

 

[Kraftwerk]

What’s weird about the RPI is the opponents record, then the opponents of opponents record. I see SC East has one of the worst opponent records at 28-44 but the highest opponents of opponents record at 356-292..how are these weighed?

 

[screwloose]

What’s weird about the RPI is the opponents record, then the opponents of opponents record. I see SC East has one of the worst opponent records at 28-44 but the highest opponents of opponents record at 356-292..how are these weighed?

The RPI works as a three part formula...
3/8ths(37.5%) the team's winning percentage
3/8ths(37.5%) the team's opponent's winning percentage
1/4(25%) the team's opponent's opponent's winning percentage

In other words, take the team's winning percentage and opponent's winning percentage and add them together. Multiply that number by 3. Add the opponent's opponent's winning percentage multiplied by 2 and divide the entire thing by 8. That's the team's RPI.

 

[Kraftwerk]

The RPI works as a three part formula...
3/8ths(37.5%) the team's winning percentage
3/8ths(37.5%) the team's opponent's winning percentage
1/4(25%) the team's opponent's opponent's winning percentage

In other words, take the team's winning percentage and opponent's winning percentage and add them together. Multiply that number by 3. Add the opponent's opponent's winning percentage multiplied by 2 and divide the entire thing by 8. That's the team's RPI.

Why can’t you multiply it by 4 instead? Or even better..You should multiply by the highest number possible. Like 85 or something..then divide that number by how many letters are in your teams name

 

[franky1967]

The RPI works as a three part formula...
3/8ths(37.5%) the team's winning percentage
3/8ths(37.5%) the team's opponent's winning percentage
1/4(25%) the team's opponent's opponent's winning percentage

In other words, take the team's winning percentage and opponent's winning percentage and add them together. Multiply that number by 3. Add the opponent's opponent's winning percentage multiplied by 2 and divide the entire thing by 8. That's the team's RPI.

That made my head spin

 

[franky1967]

Why can’t you multiply it by 4 instead? Or even better..You should multiply by the highest number possible. Like 85 or something..then divide that number by how many letters are in your teams name

I'm not sure thats how I would have answered he was explaining it how the system really is

 

[Kraftwerk]

I'm not sure thats how I would have answered he was explaining it how the system really is

I know I was just messing around

 

[paxregis]

I know I was just messing around

you just can’t help yourself, can you