Playoff Predictions #2

[ScoutPrep4]

With the RPI rankings out we take our second shot at the playoff qualifiers and the brackets.
Class 4A
D1- Dowling*, SC East, Ankeny
D2- Centennial*, Roosevelt, SE Polk, Fort Dodge
D3- Cedar Falls*, Prairie, Dub . Senior
D4- Linn-Mar*
D5- Bettendorf*, CR Kennedy
D6- Waukee*, Johnston
D7- Valley*

1st Four Out
Marshalltown, Dav. North, Indianola, Wat. West

Pairings
Bracket#1
Fort Dodge @ Dowling
Prairie @ Centennial

Bracket #2
SC East @ Valley
Roosevelt @ Waukee

Bracket #3
Johnston @ Cedar Falls
SE Polk @ Linn-Mar

Bracket #4
Dub. Senior @ Bettendorf
Ankeny @ CR Kennedy

 

[redmen33]

Best guess at the final RPI Rankings:

1. Valley
2. Cedar Falls
3. Dowling (jumps centennial due to H2H victory)
4. Centennial
5. CR Kennedy
6. SE Polk
7. Linn-Mar
8. Ankeny
9. CR Prairie
10. Bettendorf
11. Waukee
12. Dub Senior
13. Urbandale
14. Ft. Dodge
15. DM Roosevelt
16. Indianola

First 4 Out: Davenport North, SC East, Johnston, IC West

Bracket 1
16) Indianola @ 1) Valley
9) CR Prairie @ 8) Ankeny

Bracket 2
12) Dub Senior @ 5) CR Kennedy
13) Urbandale @ 4) Centennial

Bracket 3
6) SE Polk @ 11) Waukee (dist. champ)
14) Ft. Dodge @ 3) Dowling

Bracket 4
15) DM Roosevelt @ 2) Cedar Falls
10) Bettendorf @ 7) Linn-Mar

 

[straw1397]

I am very close to yours.

I have
Waukee getting to #9 which would then get to host Ankeny as a District champ (I believe)

Praire #10 plays Lin Mar
Senior #11 to SEP
Bett #12 rematch with Kennedy is that possible?

FD and Roosevelt switched

Would the state move around Senior, Prairie, and Bett to make a shorter trip for going to SEP?

Val- Ind
Waukee- Ank
AC- Urb
CRK- Bett/ Senior/ CRP

CF- FD
LM- CRP/Senior/Bett
SEP- Senior/CRP/ Bett
DC- DMR

 

[SpinningBird]

Straw,

Yes, I think we could see a shuffle to avoid Senior having to travel 3+ hours to Central Iowa in the first round. Here is my guess at this point.

15 Fort Dodge (6-3) at 2 Cedar Falls (9-0)
10 Bettendorf (7-2) at 7 Linn-Mar (7-2)
---
14 Des Moines Roosevelt (6-3) at 3 WDM Dowling (8-1)
11 CR Prairie (6-3) at 6 Southeast Polk (7-2)
---
12 Dubuque Senior (6-3) at 5 CR Kennedy (8-1)
13 Urbandale (6-3) at 4 Ankeny Centennial (8-1)
---
8 Ankeny (6-3) at 9 Waukee (6-3)
16 Indianola (6-3) at 1 WDM Valley (9-0)

 

[jjirak23]

Straw,

Yes, I think we could see a shuffle to avoid Senior having to travel 3+ hours to Central Iowa in the first round. Here is my guess at this point.

15 Fort Dodge (6-3) at 2 Cedar Falls (9-0)
10 Bettendorf (7-2) at 7 Linn-Mar (7-2)
---
14 Des Moines Roosevelt (6-3) at 3 WDM Dowling (8-1)
11 CR Prairie (6-3) at 6 Southeast Polk (7-2)
---
12 Dubuque Senior (6-3) at 5 CR Kennedy (8-1)
13 Urbandale (6-3) at 4 Ankeny Centennial (8-1)
---
8 Ankeny (6-3) at 9 Waukee (6-3)
16 Indianola (6-3) at 1 WDM Valley (9-0)

Could Ankeny get the 7 ahead of Linn-Mar?

 

[Reasoned]

Could Ankeny get the 7 ahead of Linn-Mar?

Sure, if PV beats LM...which could happen.

 

[CF_93]

Sure, if PV beats LM...which could happen.

In which case the district 4 winner would still get the #7 seed. At-large teams cannot be seeded higher than district winners in first two rounds.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Sure they could. Seeding/bracketing is based on RPI. All district winners plus the highest RPI at-large get to host the first round, but as far as who plays who, the seeding is based on RPI. In the second round, home field is purely highest RPI hosts, district finish is not a factor. Source: IHSAA postseason manual.

 

[oldtimefootball]

CF - are you saying that Kennedy and SEP could be #5 and #6 in the final RPI but play each other in the #8-#9 game due to being the highest ranked at large teams?

Would seem to make a lot tougher 2nd round game for #1 seed (assume they win).

 

[KidSilverhair]

Yeah, that’s not happening. Seeds are based on RPI; district finish only pertains to first-round home field.

It’s possible a higher RPI at-large could play at a district champion with a lower RPI, but that’s not because the district champion is a higher seed - it’s that the district champions get the opportunity to host the first round.

Say two teams end up 8-1, one with the 6th-best RPI and the other with the 9th-best, but both finish second in their districts. They’re going to get the 6th and 9th seeds ... the first team gets to host, along with the 7 district champions. Maybe one district champion ends up with the 10th-ranked RPI. They still get to host the first round, because they won their district ... but they are the 10th seed. It’s absolutely conceivable, in this scenario, that the 6 seed gets matched with the 10th seed in the first round, with 6 playing at 10. If 6 wins that game, and happens to play the district champion 7 seed in the second round, it’s gonna be at 6’s home field.

 

[CF_93]

CF - are you saying that Kennedy and SEP could be #5 and #6 in the final RPI but play each other in the #8-#9 game due to being the highest ranked at large teams?

Would seem to make a lot tougher 2nd round game for #1 seed (assume they win).

First of all, after Kennedy beat Bettendorf, district 5 is Kennedy’s to lose, with games at Davenport Central, and home against Burlington remaining. The only 2 likely district winners that would have an RPI below 7th are Linn Mar, and the Waukee/Indianola winner. Anyway, to make a long story short, assuming Kennedy wins out, they will likely keep the #5 seed. As for SEP, if they win out, they would be the 8 seed, barring some kind of chaos preventing Centennial from winning district 2.

 

[oldtimefootball]

My mistake, was combining your response with earlier post by someone identifying Bettendorf as projected District champ.

I had always thought similar to what KidSilverhair laid out in his post. Thanks for clarifying.

 

[Reasoned]

In which case the district 4 winner would still get the #7 seed. At-large teams cannot be seeded higher than district winners in first two rounds.

So what happens if there are 3 4-1 teams in district #4 (which is quite plausible)?

 

[oldtimefootball]

From IAHSAA website...

THREE-WAY DISTRICT TIES
New in 2019, only one champion will be named out of each district. Two-way ties are broken through head-to-head competition, but with any true three-way ties for district championships, the automatic qualifying spot as district champion will go to the team with the highest RPI. The other two teams will reenter the at-large field and may qualify for the playoffs through RPI.

 

[Reasoned]

So given that, LM with a 6-3 record would have a higher RPI than 5-4 PV or 4-5 ICW and neither will make the PO’s.

 

[screwloose]

I'll stab again. Looking at the projections of those making it, I think you're going to see a lot of #1 vs. #3 district rematches. More importantly, there will be one bracket that is entirely "eastern", just to ensure there's one at the Dome.

BRACKET A
Dubuque Senior @ Cedar Falls
Bettendorf @ Linn-Mar
NOTE: I see this as the "eastern" bracket. For one, Cedar Falls will be one of the top two or three seeds, if not overall #1. There is no chance the state takes a chance sending Dubuque Senior or Bettendorf to central Iowa. Keeping each in the "eastern" bracket keeps the two teams from Mississippi River cities from ridiculous travel.

BRACKET B
Indianola @ West Des Moines Valley
Ankeny @ Waukee
NOTE: Nothing fancy here. Turns out being a District 1 vs. District 6 mix and match.

BRACKET C
Fort Dodge @ West Des Moines Dowling
Urbandale @ Southeast Polk
NOTE: Another central Iowa bracket, with the outlier of Fort Dodge. But Fort Dodge has been part of the CIML so long, travel to Polk County could probably be done backwards in the dark.

BRACKET D
Des Moines Roosevelt @ Ankeny Centennial
Cedar Rapids Prairie @ Cedar Rapids Kennedy
NOTE: The one split "eastern/western" bracket. The state established this last year. Centennial looks to be the last of the three main higher seeds and Kennedy looks to be the highest of those not named Cedar Falls. An outside shot the Cedar Rapids schools could be placed in the all "eastern" bracket, but that would mean reconstructing the entire bracket.

 

[redmen33]

Screwloose,

The state is going to go right off of the RPI rankings if that means sending Dubuque Senior somewhere in central Iowa then so be it. I think Senior ends up 12 and plays Kennedy regardless. The state went right off the rankings last year with the exception that they sent PV to Bett and Urby to Waukee instead of the opposite. The only change would be if they are side by side and a 15 minute travel for both teams makes more sense than a 2 hour travel for both teams.

Also, Waukee could get to 9 or 10, but I think them at 10 or 11 is much more likely.

https://ihsaa-static.s3.amazonaws.com/archive/2018/football2018footballpostseasonschedule.html

https://ihsaa-static.s3.amazonaws.com/archive/2018/files/RPI-Complete-4A-10.20.pdf

 

[jjirak23]

Screwloose,

The state is going to go right off of the RPI rankings if that means sending Dubuque Senior somewhere in central Iowa then so be it. I think Senior ends up 12 and plays Kennedy regardless. The state went right off the rankings last year with the exception that they sent PV to Bett and Urby to Waukee instead of the opposite. The only change would be if they are side by side and a 15 minute travel for both teams makes more sense than a 2 hour travel for both teams.

Also, Waukee could get to 9 or 10, but I think them at 10 or 11 is much more likely.

https://ihsaa-static.s3.amazonaws.com/archive/2018/football2018footballpostseasonschedule.html

https://ihsaa-static.s3.amazonaws.com/archive/2018/files/RPI-Complete-4A-10.20.pdf

CF93
I think you are incorrect in saying that SEP would drop to the 8 seed, if they finish 6 in the RPI then they are the 6 seed ahead of Linn-Mar and Waukee(assuming they win their districts) Linn-Mar and Waukee could be the 7, 8, 9, 10 or 11 seed, but would be guaranteed a home game as district champion. Last year it just worked out in 4A that the 7 district champions were seeds 1-7 in the RPI after week 9. I think SEP ends up the 6 with an outside chance that Ankeny at 6-3 jumps 7-2 Linn-Mar for the 7 seed. I haven't looked at Linn-Mar's out of district games but Ankeny has a 9 game advantage on Opponent's record and is only .004 behind them in this weeks RPI. If Linn-Mar were to lose to PV, I think it's a lock that Ankeny would be the 7. My best guess is that you are looking at 1. Valley 2. CF 3. Dowling(lower rpi than AC, but the head to head win) 4. AC 5. CRK 6. SEP 7. Ank 8. Linn-Mar 9. Bett and 10. Waukee. That is based on a lot of assumptions that those teams all win out.

 

[SpinningBird]

At-large teams cannot be seeded higher than district winners in first two rounds.

As for SEP, if they win out, they would be the 8 seed, barring some kind of chaos preventing Centennial from winning district 2.

This is not accurate. If SEP wins out they will be around #6 seed. At large teams are not automatically be dropped below district champs.

 

[SpinningBird]

Could Ankeny get the 7 ahead of Linn-Mar?

Yes, that's entirely possible. But my thought in my pairings was that IHSAA would flip them for travel purposes.

 

[screwloose]

A lot of you are all worked up in the pants about seeds. They don't really matter. Last year, the bracket just happened to fall almost perfect. THAT was a fluke. Geography still plays a role in the pairings. Always have and it always will. They will matter until teams start taking airplanes for travel.

It's the same way in the NCAA for the FCS playoffs. They have a 400 mile "bus" rule. If they can bus a team from one place to another for the playoffs, they do. The FCS has the same avoiding of conference rematches in the First Round.

From the Post-Season Manual...
CLASS 4-A, 3-A, 2-A, 1-A, A & 8-Player PLAY-OFF ASSIGNMENTS/PAIRINGS

-- 1st Round, District Champions have the opportunity to host In Class 4A, one at-large qualifier with the highest RPI will have the opportunity to host.
-- In Classes 3A, 2A, and 1A, one district champion with the lowest RPI will be a traveling team.
-- In Class A, two district champions with the lowest RPI’s will be traveling teams.

All attempts will be made to avoid champions and runner-ups from the same district playing in the first round.
Champions and additional qualifiers from the same district beside the runner-ups could be assigned to play each other in the first round.
Preset brackets will be made for the playoffs through the quarterfinals.
All attempts will be made to create as close to a “true” bracketing format using the RPI to seed to the first two rounds.
Geography will be the final factor when creating brackets.

 

[SpinningBird]

A lot of you are all worked up in the pants about seeds.

That's a bit dramatic, I see people who are simply discussing different scenarios.

I personally think the IHSAA will generally stick with RPI seeds for pairings, but when travel gets to be 3 hours plus they will reshuffle teams. Not stick to East and West so much as in the past. After all, it's far less distance from Des Moines to Cedar Rapids than it is from Des Moines to Sioux City.

 

[screwloose]

No, it's not dramatic.

You put a bracket up above where there is a potential second round match-up involving Dubuque Senior going to Ankeny or Urbandale AND a potential Fort Dodge to Bettendorf. The state will NEVER put those together, regardless of the "seedings". And before you say, those match-ups are unlikely, there would have to be upsets, you're right. But the state cannot put out a concrete two round bracket and allow for those kinds of possibilities. Look at my bracket and tell me where that can happen? It can't.

 

[Reasoned]

Judging from past years brackets, I tend to believe the IHSAA will keep the four school cluster within geographic regions (there’s always the occasional exception) regardless of what is said otherwise. Unless you’re CF and a couple others, schools understand it’s a trip to the Dome once you’ve survived the bracket and travel is required.

 

[franky1967]

Let's say SC East makes it to the Semifinals and Finals, that's roughly a 3 1/2-4 drive minimum to the Dome without stoppong and probably longer in a bus.

Bettendorf to Ft. Dodge is also 3 1/2 to 4hrs.
They should stick to the RPI rankings as close as they can or scrap the whole thing.

If Bettendorf was to play SC East than yes you flip the seeds to get a closer matchup. However you do it for just that one game, you don't restructure the entire playoffs for that one matchup.

After the Quarters all that travel is thrown out the window

 

[screwloose]

The ISHAA has to reimburse those traveling teams. So you think for the sake of a true bracket, they're going to just pay the extra cash? Again, it's not happening.

By the way, Sioux City to Cedar Falls, three hours twenty minutes(204 miles). Fort Dodge to Bettendorf, three hours fourty-two minutes(236 miles). The goal is to get to the UNI-Dome, so travel then is expected. Geography will always play a role in the first two rounds.

 

[franky1967]

I think Wd Valley and Bettendorf played a few years back in the regular season and that was almost a 3hr. drive.

Does not make sense that schools travel farther for a regular season game than a playoff game.

The purpose of district's is to fill a schedule and limit travel. Back in 1999,they did not go out of their way to keep Cedar Falls from traveling to SC East. So why limit travel, why not look at neutral fields?

 

[franky1967]

The ISHAA has to reimburse those traveling teams. So you think for the sake of a true bracket, they're going to just pay the extra cash? Again, it's not happening.

By the way, Sioux City to Cedar Falls, three hours twenty minutes(204 miles). Fort Dodge to Bettendorf, three hours fourty-two minutes(236 miles). The goal is to get to the UNI-Dome, so travel then is expected. Geography will always play a role in the first two rounds.

You might be correct, however it didn't play a role for Cedar Falls and Prairie last year.

CF played:
Indianola, Waukee and Southeast Polk and I don't remember who Praire was with, but at any rate those brackets were not geographical

 

[franky1967]

The ISHAA has to reimburse those traveling teams. So you think for the sake of a true bracket, they're going to just pay the extra cash? Again, it's not happening.

By the way, Sioux City to Cedar Falls, three hours twenty minutes(204 miles). Fort Dodge to Bettendorf, three hours fourty-two minutes(236 miles). The goal is to get to the UNI-Dome, so travel then is expected. Geography will always play a role in the first two rounds.

I think if gate receipts exceed the cost of reimburse a team for travel, then I think they will not think twice.

 

[screwloose]

Last year, Cedar Rapids Prairie was with Johnston and the pair of Southeast Polk and Ankeny Centennial. You're right, not the best geographical fit. But it looks like the main problem was that Cedar Falls and Iowa City West were each top four seeds, so they had to be split. One of the two had to accommodate the Bettendorf/Pleasant Valley pairing in the Second Round. They took Iowa City West, assuming, because they were 8-1, like Bettendorf. This meant pairing Cedar Falls with someone "western", Waukee. This kept the bracket balanced, as those two's combined record was also 16-2(8-1/8-1 and 9-0/7-2). Assuming again, they put Cedar Rapids Prairie together with Johnston, so they could have the two highest at-large berths playing one another. Why did they not put that pairing in the same bracket as Cedar Falls/Indianola? Who knows? Could have been to spread the six "eastern" teams over three brackets and give them a shot at three semifinalists, despite being outnumbered 10/6 overall. They might do that again this year.

Gate receipts exceeding the cost of travel? The closer the proximity of a game, the better a gate usually is. That only makes sense. And the state is all about maximizing the gate, because the playoffs are when they make their money. A lot of the playoff gate goes to the IHSAA, the regular season gate goes to the host school exclusively.

West Des Moines Valley and Bettendorf have played. That was a non-district game. And as such, they both probably asked the state to put them together on the schedule. The IHSAA wasn't concerned about weather or icy travel in August or September, not if people didn't travel each way, because none of the gate was theirs. The state has to worry about those concerns in October sometimes. Not necessarily ice, but cold, dreary rainy games producing a substandard gate.

 

[straw1397]

Last year, pretty sure they went according to the RPI

Here is a question I have

A realistic possibility this year is CRP beating CF if that happens the RPI would look like this

1 Valley Hosting
2 Ank Cent Hosting
3 Dowling Hosting would swap places with AC
4 CRK Hosting
5 CF Hosting bc highest seeded non champ
6 SEP
7 CRP Hosting
8 LM Hosting
9 Waukee Hosting
10 Ankeny
11 DS
12Bett
13 Urb
14DMR
15 FD
16 Ind

So would SEP drop down to the 9 seed and go to Waukee?

Val- Ind
DC- FD
AC- DMR
CRK- Urb
CF- Bett
CRP- DS
LM- Ank
Waukee- SEP

 

[Reasoned]

The closer the proximity of a game, the better a gate usually is. That only makes sense. And the state is all about maximizing the gate, because the playoffs are when they make their money. A lot of the playoff gate goes to the IHSAA, the regular season gate goes to the host school exclusively.

And there you have it, that’s the primary driver, which makes sense.

 

[ScoutPrep4]

And there you have it, that’s the primary driver, which makes sense.

What are people's thoughts on neutral sites for 2nd round games? I would think it could make first round pairings more equal to the actually seeding and a little less focus on travel and trying to figure that all out depending on various outcomes of the first round games. Plus I think we could have possibly better games with no one having home field advantage. Gate could be split in various ways to go to each team and the state.

 

[CF_93]

What are people's thoughts on neutral sites for 2nd round games? I would think it could make first round pairings more equal to the actually seeding and a little less focus on travel and trying to figure that all out depending on various outcomes of the first round games. Plus I think we could have possibly better games with no one having home field advantage. Gate could be split in various ways to go to each team and the state.

I doubt the state will ever do it. The cost to them is going to ultimately come out the same. 300 miles of travel is the same, whether it’s one team doing it or two.

 

[Reasoned]

If changed it takes away some of the benefits of being a top seed, getting home field until the semifinals, there needs to be a reward for going undefeated or 8-1.

 

[franky1967]

I doubt the state will ever do it. The cost to them is going to ultimately come out the same. 300 miles of travel is the same, whether it’s one team doing it or two.

Well they did it 2017 when Prairie met Cedar Falls a r Wartburg. Not sure of the cost of that and who paid for what

Doesnt Dowling play at a Neutral site when they host a game?

 

[jjirak23]

I doubt the state will ever do it. The cost to them is going to ultimately come out the same. 300 miles of travel is the same, whether it’s one team doing it or two.

Well they did it 2017 when Prairie met Cedar Falls a r Wartburg. Not sure of the cost of that and who paid for what

Doesnt Dowling play at a Neutral site when they host a game?

Yes. Last year they hosted Ft Dodge at Williams Stadium(DSM East home) because Valley was hosting ankeny.

 

[DodgerAlum]

I remember years ago (a lot of years ago), Waterloo East and Sioux City East were paired in the first round. They played in Fort Dodge.

 

[franky1967]

And there you have it, that’s the primary driver, which makes sense.

I guarantee you a Bettendorf/ matchup i

I remember years ago (a lot of years ago), Waterloo East and Sioux City East were paired in the first round. They played in Fort Dodge.

You are correct that would have been 1988. I believe Drake Stadium has been used. I think a neutral stadium for 1st and QFs is the way to go if you want to use the RPI to a "T" everybody wants the best final four and the Championship game. Although upsets will happen

 

[franky1967]

Last year, pretty sure they went according to the RPI

Here is a question I have

A realistic possibility this year is CRP beating CF if that happens the RPI would look like this

1 Valley Hosting
2 Ank Cent Hosting
3 Dowling Hosting would swap places with AC
4 CRK Hosting
5 CF Hosting bc highest seeded non champ
6 SEP
7 CRP Hosting
8 LM Hosting
9 Waukee Hosting
10 Ankeny
11 DS
12Bett
13 Urb
14DMR
15 FD
16 Ind

So would SEP drop down to the 9 seed and go to Waukee?

Val- Ind
DC- FD
AC- DMR
CRK- Urb
CF- Bett
CRP- DS
LM- Ank
Waukee- SEP

Praire beating CF is possible, however just because CF hasn't blown people away doesn't mean they ar not solid

I assuming people are looking at CFs 28-0 victory over Jefferson as not impressive. CF has a tendency to play at the level of competition for the most part

Waterloo West scored two late TDs with their 1st offense still in the game otherwise CF handled them 48-3