Playoff Picture through 3 district games

[PNation]

In most districts things are starting to clear up, and it might be possible to make some guesses for who might get the 2 wildcards. Here are my thoughts.

District 1
1. SBL
2. Heelan
3/4. Storm Lake and Spirit Lake

I think that SBL and Heelan have sorted themselves to the top, but with a close loss to Heelan, Storm Lake has put itself in contention for a possible wildcard.

District 2
1/2/3. Boone, DCG, Webster City

I would guess that Boone will fall to 3rd here, but 3 quality teams, it could again depend on scoring differential to see if all 3 can get in.

District 3
1/2 Xavier and WSR
3. Decorah

The late touchdown Decorah scored against Xavier could be very key to them getting a wildcard, the district comes down to WSR vs. Xavier

District 4
1. West Delaware
2. Assumption

I think West Delaware wins and Assumption gets 2nd, Marion and Wahlert could challenge WD but I don't think they have enough to get over them to make it an interesting race

District 5
1. Solon
2/3 Washington or Osky

Solon has all but assured a 9-0 regular season, the 2nd spot will come down to the Washington vs. Oskaloosa game.

District 6
1. Pella
2. Carlisle
3. Norwalk

I think Pella is still the class of this district, and yes Carlisle has a loss and Norwalk doesn't in district, but they have not been impressive, I think Carlisle beats them this year.

Distict 7
1. Harlan
2. Glenwood
3. Winterset

Winterset has been a bit of a surprise with a nice win over Carroll but I think that they don't have enough to beat the top two dogs.

 

[ISUChip]

The question will be which 2-loss teams can max out their point totals.

 

[ronsss]

nice work........still trying to get use storm lake being a power, biggest surpirse in a long time

 

[PNation]

That's what happens when you basically hire Fred Wieck

 

[makelovenotwar]

What is the rule for wildcard/at large? Is it overall record or conference strength?

 

[KidSilverhair]

Here's the wild card breakdown from the IHSAA football manual:

The first tiebreaker is anyone in a tie for a district title, so if there's a 3- or 4-way tie in a district, the team that's slotted 3rd or 4th in the district-level tiebreaker would get first shot at a wild-card spot (if there did happen to be a 4-way tie in some district, all 4 of those teams are in the playoffs and the wild-card entries are decided right away - as long as there wasn't another 3-way tie somewhere else).

After that, it's district record, then head-to-head. If I remember correctly, if any team in the wild-card pool lost to any other team also in the pool, they are eliminated.

If all the wild-card teams left have the same district record, hadn't played any other wild-card teams and aren't in a tie for the district title, then you go to the 17-point differential. If there's still a tie after that, it's alphabetical by school - this year starting with "D" and going in reverse. So in 3A, Denison-Schleswig would be first, I think, then going backwards through Decorah/Dallas Center-Grimes/Creston O-M ... then at the bottom of the list would be Fairfield, preceded by Fort Madison/Gilbert/Glenwood.

 

[FLBP]

As always, Thank you all for your input.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I also think it's just a tad early for me to start crunching playoff numbers with 4 games left. Three is about where I start hammering out possibilities, so I'm getting things ready for after Friday.

PNation has sorted things out pretty well, though.

D1 - Spirit Lake and Storm Lake still play each other, so the loser of that game is probably toast. It looks like SBL and Heelan in the top two spots.

D2- Boone, DC-G, and Webster City all still have to play each other, so check back later.

D3 - The Xavier/Waverly-Shell Rock game next week probably decides the district, unless Decorah can beat WSR tomorrow and then WSR knocks off Xavier, then we've got a mess. But it's likely Xavier and WSR, with Decorah working for a wild card.

D4 - West Delaware and Assumption have the tiebreaker edges for the top two spots. If Wahlert could upset West Delaware, that makes things interesting. Marion has a tough ending schedule.

D5 - Solon has it made, holding tiebreakers over Washington and Oskaloosa already. The Washington/Osky game likely decides second place.

D6- Pella, Norwalk, and Carlisle - Norwalk still plays the other two, so they control their destiny. Or they lose them both and miss the playoffs, whatever ...

D7- Harlan has the edge here, holding the tiebreaker over Glenwood. Winterset can prove themselves yet, with games against Harlan, Glenwood, and Denison-Schleswig, but, well, they gotta prove themselves or drop to the middle of the pack. Glenwood is in pretty good shape for second.

 

[Cheese2]

I also think it's just a tad early for me to start crunching playoff numbers with 4 games left. Three is about where I start hammering out possibilities, so I'm getting things ready for after Friday.

PNation has sorted things out pretty well, though.

D1 - Spirit Lake and Storm Lake still play each other, so the loser of that game is probably toast. It looks like SBL and Heelan in the top two spots.

D2- Boone, DC-G, and Webster City all still have to play each other, so check back later.

D3 - The Xavier/Waverly-Shell Rock game next week probably decides the district, unless Decorah can beat WSR tomorrow and then WSR knocks off Xavier, then we've got a mess. But it's likely Xavier and WSR, with Decorah working for a wild card.

D4 - West Delaware and Assumption have the tiebreaker edges for the top two spots. If Wahlert could upset West Delaware, that makes things interesting. Marion has a tough ending schedule.

D5 - Solon has it made, holding tiebreakers over Washington and Oskaloosa already. The Washington/Osky game likely decides second place.

D6- Pella, Norwalk, and Carlisle - Norwalk still plays the other two, so they control their destiny. Or they lose them both and miss the playoffs, whatever ...

D7- Harlan has the edge here, holding the tiebreaker over Glenwood. Winterset can prove themselves yet, with games against Harlan, Glenwood, and Denison-Schleswig, but, well, they gotta prove themselves or drop to the middle of the pack. Glenwood is in pretty good shape for second.

Kid, how strong is Xavier this year in your opinion? Do you think that Waverly can beat them? Solon appears to be very tough this year on the Eastern side of the state...seem very capable of getting to the Dome.

 

[KidSilverhair]

In my opinion, Xavier isn't the juggernaut they've been in past years. Last year they had a fearsome squad ... just about four seconds away from a chance at a state title. If you remember they absolutely shut down Pella's ground game, while Maliki Wilson ran all over the Dutch (the passing game, though, was the exact opposite).

But we are talking about this year. Yeah, they're not awesome. They're solid. They're very good on defense, again, giving up about 70 yards rushing and less than 200 total yards per game. They've forced a lot of turnovers in the first 5 games, with only 3 or so turnovers themselves. They're (obviously) extremely well-coached on offense. Quinn Schulte is a good athlete at quarterback, running and passing, the offensive line is pretty good, the backs and receivers are serviceable.

I see them as a good, solid 3A team this year, but I think they'd be exceeding expectations to make the title game, and they'd have to play really well to make the Dome. As you said, Solon is ridiculous this year, on defense especially (if the Saints and the Spartans meet in the playoffs, the over/under for points in that game should be about 9). Waverly-Shell Rock has another outstanding defense this year, but they had that at this point last year, too, and Xavier had no trouble scoring on them in Waverly (again, a much more powerful offensive team than they have this year). I think they'll have more trouble this year, and I expect a tough game next week, but right now I think I'd lean Xavier in that particular matchup. I'll have a better idea once I see how the Go-Hawks do at Decorah tomorrow.

You never know exactly how the state will divvy up sides in the playoffs (it's possible, although probably not likely, that a Pella or a Bondurant-Farrar could get tossed into the east side, depending on who qualifies) - but the top teams in the east right now, I'd say, would be Solon, Xavier, Waverly-Shell Rock, West Delaware, in that order, probably.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Always appreciative of objective insight. Thank you for that post, Kid. I know a lot about no teams, and a little about most teams in the east and middle part of the state. I share much of the same thoughts as you.

 

[brennan16]

Thanks for the good insight people. I jump on to keep tabs on high school football as I don't get to see a ton of games. Year to year it always seems like a lot of the same teams in 3A in the east. (Solon, Waverly, Xavier, West Delaware) people with good tradition and good numbers year in and year out. Reading Kid's post... is that the same Schulte that played bball for Xavier. Watched them play once down at state and he is a good athlete. Also, is there still a Velky that is still at Waverly?

 

[paxregis]

That's what happens when you basically hire Fred Wieck

You are not giving Rudy his due. Yes, his old man is the OC, but the son is the one getting players to come out and getting the town excited about football. Learning the game from one of the best staffs in high school football probably helps Rudy getting the most out of the talent he gets to coach.

 

[PNation]

I meant no disrespect to Rudy Weick with that, but everything he learned was from his dad, with a more 21st century coaching style

 

[StatewidePundit]

Great move by Storm Lake. Best of both worlds.

 

[JonnyRae]

Thanks for the good insight people. I jump on to keep tabs on high school football as I don't get to see a ton of games. Year to year it always seems like a lot of the same teams in 3A in the east. (Solon, Waverly, Xavier, West Delaware) people with good tradition and good numbers year in and year out. Reading Kid's post... is that the same Schulte that played bball for Xavier. Watched them play once down at state and he is a good athlete. Also, is there still a Velky that is still at Waverly?

Yes, there is a Velky still at W-SR, Luke Velky. Junior, QB.

 

[Drewolson24]

Does anyone have any ideas for a way too early too 10 in 3A for next season?

 

[PNation]

I put one on the off season forum