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Playoff Guessing, Vol. 2

KidSilverhair

KidSilverhair

Varsity
Aug 31, 2008
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www.thirdandamile.blogspot.com
Just one week left. We can get down to the brass tacks and get a good idea of how the playoffs might look.

(Edited this post to correct a mistake I made with D-7.)

First, district champions:
  • Sergeant Bluff-Luton has won D-1.
  • The winner of Dallas Center-Grimes vs Carroll wins D-2.
  • The winner of Independence vs Decorah wins D-3.
  • Western Dubuque has won D-4.
  • If Iowa City Liberty beats Clinton, North Scott will be the champion of D-5. That means the worst North Scott could do is be in a three-way tie, which they’d take with RPI. If Clinton upsets Liberty, the winner of North Scott vs Davenport Assumption wins the district.
  • Solon has won D-6.
  • If Oskaloosa loses to South Tama, the winner of Pella vs Grinnell takes D-7. With an Oskaloosa win, Pella takes the district, either outright by defeating Grinnell or by RPI in a three-way tie.
  • Norwalk has won D-8.
  • If Lewis Central, Harlan, and Glenwood all win, it’s a three-way tie that Lewis Central takes with RPI. If any of them lose, it would go to head-to-head (Lewis Central over Glenwood, Glenwood over Harlan, Harlan over Lewis Central).
Here’s what I project for final RPI. Expected district winners are shown with *:
  1. * Solon
  2. * Sergeant Bluff-Luton
  3. * Western Dubuque
  4. * Lewis Central
  5. * Norwalk
  6. Xavier
  7. * Pella
  8. * Dallas Center-Grimes
  9. * North Scott
  10. Harlan
  11. * Independence
  12. Glenwood
  13. Washington
  14. Carlisle
  15. Iowa City Liberty
  16. Oskaloosa
A perfectly seeded bracket is almost possible, except for these problems:
  • The 9-8 game would be North Scott at Dallas Center-Grimes, but they both are hosting, so that can’t happen.
  • The 11-6 game would be Independence at Xavier, but Xavier can’t have a home game.
  • The 15-2 game, Liberty at SBL, isn’t impossible, but it’s a long drive. I can fix that travel issue by swapping Liberty with 14 seed Carlisle, which is a little better.
Here’s what the brackets could look like:

16 Oskaloosa at 1 Solon
11 Independence at 8 Dallas Center-Grimes
——
12 Glenwood at 5 Norwalk
13 Washington at 4 Lewis Central

(I guess travel-wise you could put Washington at Norwalk and Glenwood at Lewis Central, since technically Glenwood wouldn’t be the D-9 runner-up ...)

———
15 Iowa City Liberty at 3 Western Dubuque
6 Xavier at 9 North Scott
——
10 Harlan at 7 Pella
14 Carlisle at 2 Sergeant Bluff-Luton


Flies in the ointment:
  • If Carroll beats DC-G, Carroll is the D-2 champion and would have to travel as the 16 seed. DC-G would have to travel as the 14 seed. Indee gets a home game, Oskaloosa would be out.
  • If Decorah wins over Independence, Decorah is the D-3 champion and travels as the 16 seed. Independence would be the 14 seed. Oskaloosa would be out.
  • Assumption wins D-3 with a win plus a Liberty loss. That would make Assumption the 14 seed. North Scott would have a better RPI than Assumption but bump down to 15 with head-to-head. Liberty would be out. Wins by both Assumption and Liberty gives North Scott the district crown by RPI at seed 14, Liberty at seed 15, and Assumption at 16 ... but they’re all on the road.
  • A Grinnell win plus an Oskaloosa loss makes Grinnell the D-7 champ, and they’d travel as the 16 seed. Pella would travel as the 14 seed, Oskaloosa would be out. With wins by Oskaloosa and Grinnell, Pella still wins the district by RPI, still on the road as the 14 seed (Indee gets a home game), and Oskaloosa jumps Grinnell into the 16 seed due to head-to-head.
  • Should Mount Pleasant win over Washington, that gets Mount Pleasant in as a 14 seed and drops Washington to 16. Once again, Oskaloosa would be out.
 
Last edited:
Looking at District 7 if Grinnell beats Pella it is a 3 way tie for 1st with each beating each other so Pella would win district based off RPI. That would put Pella as lowest district champ. Biggest question would be does Grinnell end in RPI?
 
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Carlisle still has to face bondurant at bondurant. Week 9

Is Norwalk at Gilbert give Norwalk the win by 3 touchdowns
Ballard face north Polk give Ballard by 50
Carlisle at Bondurant I will give this to Carlisle 21 to 7

The main back RB for Bondurant didn't play against Gilbert last game.
 
Football is love said:
Looking at District 7 if Grinnell beats Pella it is a 3 way tie for 1st with each beating each other so Pella would win district based off RPI. That would put Pella as lowest district champ. Biggest question would be does Grinnell end in RPI?
Click to expand...

Thank you for catching that - you are absolutely correct. I rushed myself too fast to get that posted Saturday morning.

I’ve updated my original post to fix that screwup.

Here’s the rough thing for Grinnell - if they beat Pella and force that three-way tie, they might by the thinnest of margins move into the 16 seed. Only it wouldn’t do them any good ... Oskaloosa would be at 17 and would receive the playoff spot instead, since they defeated Grinnell head-to-head.
 
that sounds great, harlan gets in with a loss...harlans coach todd bladt said in the harlan tribune that he thought they needed to win last one....thanks for info...great info
 
KidSilverhair said:
Thank you for catching that - you are absolutely correct. I rushed myself too fast to get that posted Saturday morning.

I’ve updated my original post to fix that screwup.

Here’s the rough thing for Grinnell - if they beat Pella and force that three-way tie, they might by the thinnest of margins move into the 16 seed. Only it wouldn’t do them any good ... Oskaloosa would be at 17 and would receive the playoff spot instead, since they defeated Grinnell head-to-head.
Click to expand...
Grinnell is ahead of Oskaloosa. Opponenent cancel in district. i dont se how osky moves ahead in rpi According to the rules head to head doesn't matter with settle out district. Looks like its exclusively RPI
 
KidSilverhair said:
the playoff spot instead, since they defeated Grinnell head-to-head.
Click to expand...
That is not how the rule works. The rule says the remaining two teams are put back into the pool for qualification based off of RPI. If that is the case then Since Grinnell has a higher RPI than Oskaloosa it looks like if they beat pella they are in.
 
Even if Grinnell beats Pella I think Oskaloosa stays within one RPI spot of Grinnell which knocks Grinnell out head to head according to the new rules this year. I also think Carlisle is dangerously close to falling out with a loss to Bondurant. Osky and Carlisle will be very close and it will depend on records of opponents. The neat thing is every game matters, even for the teams that are guaranteed in they want a better match up and home field.
 
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Maybe I wasn’t clear with what I’m discussing here with Oskaloosa and Grinnell. Some of you guys are confusing district finish with playoff qualification.

If Grinnell beats Pella, it’s possible their RPI would place them in the 16th spot, which last year would have put them in the playoffs. The state added a new wrinkle for seeding this year for teams “side-by-side” on the RPI list, which means “immediately adjacent.” If a team beat the team immediately above them on the RPI ranking, they get moved ahead of that team.

“When determining the final at-large qualifier for the post season in each class, the IHSAA will use head-to- head competition over the RPI if the two teams are side by side in the final rankings.” - from the IHSAA postseason manual.

So, if Grinnell’s RPI puts them 16, but Oskaloosa’s RPI has them at 17, this new rule has Oskaloosa jumping over Grinnell for that final playoff spot, since they beat Grinnell head-to-head.
 
FarmFam said:
Even if Grinnell beats Pella I think Oskaloosa stays within one RPI spot of Grinnell which knocks Grinnell out head to head according to the new rules this year. I also think Carlisle is dangerously close to falling out with a loss to Bondurant. Osky and Carlisle will be very close and it will depend on records of opponents. The neat thing is every game matters, even for the teams that are guaranteed in they want a better match up and home field.
Click to expand...
A new rules say in a 3 way tie head to head doesn't count
 
KidSilverhair said:
Maybe I wasn’t clear with what I’m discussing here with Oskaloosa and Grinnell. Some of you guys are confusing district finish with playoff qualification.

If Grinnell beats Pella, it’s possible their RPI would place them in the 16th spot, which last year would have put them in the playoffs. The state added a new wrinkle for seeding this year for teams “side-by-side” on the RPI list, which means “immediately adjacent.” If a team beat the team immediately above them on the RPI ranking, they get moved ahead of that team.

“When determining the final at-large qualifier for the post season in each class, the IHSAA will use head-to- head competition over the RPI if the two teams are side by side in the final rankings.” - from the IHSAA postseason manual.

So, if Grinnell’s RPI puts them 16, but Oskaloosa’s RPI has them at 17, this new rule has Oskaloosa jumping over Grinnell for that final playoff spot, since they beat Grinnell head-to-head.
Click to expand...
 
Also head-to-head does still count in 3-way ties, but only if one team beat the other two (which almost never happens). Again from the postseason manual:

“If a tie exists between three or more teams with the fewest district losses, the tie will be broken by:
a. Head to Head Competition will be used, loser(s) out.
b. If all teams have defeated each other, the team with the highest RPI will be determined to be the district champion and have the opportunity to host.
c. The remaining teams enter into the at-large field of potential qualifiers.”
 
KidSilverhair said:
Also head-to-head does still count in 3-way ties, but only if one team beat the other two (which almost never happens). Again from the postseason manual:

“If a tie exists between three or more teams with the fewest district losses, the tie will be broken by:
a. Head to Head Competition will be used, loser(s) out.
b. If all teams have defeated each other, the team with the highest RPI will be determined to be the district champion and have the opportunity to host.
c. The remaining teams enter into the at-large field of potential qualifiers.”
Click to expand...
I have learned here. If district 7 has two 6-3 teams qualify and their 7-2 team stayed home I'm sure that would raise some eyebrows.
 
I go back and forth with so many matchups, really only the top 4 are protected from each other, but the state has shown that it didn't care as much about geography as a true bracket. This is what I come up with.

1. Solon vs. Oskaloosa
Pella vs. Independence

2. SBL vs. Glenwood
DCG vs. Harlan

3. Western Dubuque vs. Liberty
North Scott vs. Xavier

4. Lewis Central vs. Carlisle
Norwalk vs. Washington

If it is something like this, I would put $50 that the Western Dubuque quadrant winner will take the title, that is the quadrant of doom. The other thing that you are able to do is flip Xavier and Independence, going off of a true bracket it isn't quite as good when it comes to the RPI but I think if you went by actual quality of team it would be more fair, and Pella vs. Xavier is always fun.
 
Yeah, looking at RPI it looks pretty clear that a bracket with Xavier/North Scott in round one, and the winner facing (almost certainly) Western Dubuque in round 2, seems obvious. But too bad, considering the quality of those three teams.

If you look at the non-RPI human rankings this year, North Scott and Xavier are ranked right next to each other in several of them (the Register actually has North Scott a spot ahead of Xavier). So according to the "eye test," those are generally number 3 and 4 (or 4 and 5) in the state ... and the RPI will match them in the first round?

Pella and Xavier is always fun (well, for fans of good games - for fans of either team, they're excruciating) but they've never played in Pella, so that would be a different angle.
 
SB-L hosting first two rounds would be big in return to the dome. And this year we can catch the ball.
 
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