Just one week left. We can get down to the brass tacks and get a good idea of how the playoffs might look.
(Edited this post to correct a mistake I made with D-7.)
First, district champions:
16 Oskaloosa at 1 Solon
11 Independence at 8 Dallas Center-Grimes
——
12 Glenwood at 5 Norwalk
13 Washington at 4 Lewis Central
(I guess travel-wise you could put Washington at Norwalk and Glenwood at Lewis Central, since technically Glenwood wouldn’t be the D-9 runner-up ...)
———
15 Iowa City Liberty at 3 Western Dubuque
6 Xavier at 9 North Scott
——
10 Harlan at 7 Pella
14 Carlisle at 2 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Flies in the ointment:
(Edited this post to correct a mistake I made with D-7.)
First, district champions:
- Sergeant Bluff-Luton has won D-1.
- The winner of Dallas Center-Grimes vs Carroll wins D-2.
- The winner of Independence vs Decorah wins D-3.
- Western Dubuque has won D-4.
- If Iowa City Liberty beats Clinton, North Scott will be the champion of D-5. That means the worst North Scott could do is be in a three-way tie, which they’d take with RPI. If Clinton upsets Liberty, the winner of North Scott vs Davenport Assumption wins the district.
- Solon has won D-6.
- If Oskaloosa loses to South Tama, the winner of Pella vs Grinnell takes D-7. With an Oskaloosa win, Pella takes the district, either outright by defeating Grinnell or by RPI in a three-way tie.
- Norwalk has won D-8.
- If Lewis Central, Harlan, and Glenwood all win, it’s a three-way tie that Lewis Central takes with RPI. If any of them lose, it would go to head-to-head (Lewis Central over Glenwood, Glenwood over Harlan, Harlan over Lewis Central).
- * Solon
- * Sergeant Bluff-Luton
- * Western Dubuque
- * Lewis Central
- * Norwalk
- Xavier
- * Pella
- * Dallas Center-Grimes
- * North Scott
- Harlan
- * Independence
- Glenwood
- Washington
- Carlisle
- Iowa City Liberty
- Oskaloosa
- The 9-8 game would be North Scott at Dallas Center-Grimes, but they both are hosting, so that can’t happen.
- The 11-6 game would be Independence at Xavier, but Xavier can’t have a home game.
- The 15-2 game, Liberty at SBL, isn’t impossible, but it’s a long drive. I can fix that travel issue by swapping Liberty with 14 seed Carlisle, which is a little better.
16 Oskaloosa at 1 Solon
11 Independence at 8 Dallas Center-Grimes
——
12 Glenwood at 5 Norwalk
13 Washington at 4 Lewis Central
(I guess travel-wise you could put Washington at Norwalk and Glenwood at Lewis Central, since technically Glenwood wouldn’t be the D-9 runner-up ...)
———
15 Iowa City Liberty at 3 Western Dubuque
6 Xavier at 9 North Scott
——
10 Harlan at 7 Pella
14 Carlisle at 2 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Flies in the ointment:
- If Carroll beats DC-G, Carroll is the D-2 champion and would have to travel as the 16 seed. DC-G would have to travel as the 14 seed. Indee gets a home game, Oskaloosa would be out.
- If Decorah wins over Independence, Decorah is the D-3 champion and travels as the 16 seed. Independence would be the 14 seed. Oskaloosa would be out.
- Assumption wins D-3 with a win plus a Liberty loss. That would make Assumption the 14 seed. North Scott would have a better RPI than Assumption but bump down to 15 with head-to-head. Liberty would be out. Wins by both Assumption and Liberty gives North Scott the district crown by RPI at seed 14, Liberty at seed 15, and Assumption at 16 ... but they’re all on the road.
- A Grinnell win plus an Oskaloosa loss makes Grinnell the D-7 champ, and they’d travel as the 16 seed. Pella would travel as the 14 seed, Oskaloosa would be out. With wins by Oskaloosa and Grinnell, Pella still wins the district by RPI, still on the road as the 14 seed (Indee gets a home game), and Oskaloosa jumps Grinnell into the 16 seed due to head-to-head.
- Should Mount Pleasant win over Washington, that gets Mount Pleasant in as a 14 seed and drops Washington to 16. Once again, Oskaloosa would be out.
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