Class A Season Outlook
- Thread starter PNation
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Saints win 18-0. Wapsie fumbled the ball away twice, combine that with the 4th down stop to end the 1st half and its hard to win. St. Ansgar has forced many turnovers this year and continued that trend tonight.
Wapsie is a great team just hard to overcome the turnovers.
Wapsie is a great team just hard to overcome the turnovers.
That game was alot closer than the score shows and also a few huge calls helped out Saint Ansgar. Wapsie driving on the SA 25 and bad intentional grounding call on Wapsie that killed the drive in the 3rd quarter down 12-0 and on that last Td for SA it was 3rd and 4 in the red zone they get a holding call and the ref marks it off from the end of the run not at the spot of the hold and ends up being 3rd and 5 instead of 3rd and 14 and SA scores next play. Just had to point those two huge calls out that were wrong/blown.
Tough 2nd round matchup, definitely felt like a quarterfinals game not 2nd round. Probably should have been a quarterfinals matchup this year imo. Hats off to Saint Ansgar, really physical team and very well coached team. Dont do anything to beat themselves. Best of luck the rest of the year to you guys.
I'm sorry but in what world is that a bad intentional grounding call. Qb was still in the pocket, on top of the defender so not down, no receiver in the area, and the ball didn't get to the line of scrimmage. If we're pointing out bad calls how about the play before that where there was a blatant hold on the St. Ansgar linebacker #2 by wapsi valley's #2. This sequence begins at the 1 hour 52 minute and 30 second mark in the stream on youtube.
In regards to the hold on the touchdown drive, the hold happens a little past the 2 hour 2 minute mark in the stream. The hold was called on the st ansgar left tackle, number 51, and it happened one yard before the end of the run. You can see the flag hit him as the play is ending. Holding is a spot foul so it was marked 10 yards back from where the hold happened. You can see these both in the video on the youtube.
It was a very hard fought game like you said, just don't want you blaming the officials.
It’s Wapsie* by the way and not blaming the officials at all lol just point out two calls. Even take those two things I said and make them go Wapsies way doesn’t mean they win the game, those calls didn’t make or break the game. Saint Ansgar was the better team on the field tonight. Wapsie made to many mistakes to win a round of 16 playoff game. So don’t get its twisted here my man lol not blaming the refs at all on this loss. Saint Ansgar won this game not taking anything away from that team.
Sucks this had to be a 2nd round game should have been at least a quarters game. The Wapsie game will be a tougher game than maq valley, mark it down
Madrid really outperformed. The computer model expected a coin-flip game; Madrid wins 33-0. Congratulations!
Lucky draw by Madrid they got one of the easiest round of 16 teams imo, not sure how surprised anyone is by this score. I get the computer is becuse of stat/ or what not. I’ll take Lisbon by 3 scores next round.
I feel like I should defend Pekin. (Sorry I have no insight.)
I used to run a prediction game on iapreps.com. This would definitely provide the answer to "what is the general fan thinking".
I used to run a prediction game on iapreps.com. This would definitely provide the answer to "what is the general fan thinking".
My 4 Dome teams.
West Hancock beats Woodburry 28-7 This game is outside in colder weather with Woodbury on the road that's not good for them
Tri Center beats ACGC 24-16 This is the best matchup, I think TC has the better defense to get the win
ST Ansger Beats MV 28-6 MV hangs around early but to much size for SA
Madrid Beats Lisbon 34-24 Lisbon's sched extremely weak and Madrid gets the win on the road.
West Hancock beats Woodburry 28-7 This game is outside in colder weather with Woodbury on the road that's not good for them
Tri Center beats ACGC 24-16 This is the best matchup, I think TC has the better defense to get the win
ST Ansger Beats MV 28-6 MV hangs around early but to much size for SA
Madrid Beats Lisbon 34-24 Lisbon's sched extremely weak and Madrid gets the win on the road.
I like it all but flip that Lisbon and Madrid game. I think Lisbon is still better talent wise even outside that schedule
Personally see four really good games. I gave my predictions in a different thread, but here are some keys I see.
West Hancock vs. Woodbury Central: I don't think weather will be a factor, so can Woodbury Central get off the field on 3rd downs, West Hancock when they are rolling can demoralize teams picking up 3rd down after 3rd down. For West Hancock can their defense step up and slow down Woodbury Central especially in the passing game, the first two rounds West Hancock has given up yards and points, and teams in the past that have beaten WH have been successful in the air.
AC/GC vs Tri-Center: This truly comes down to which defense plays better, I think both will have their hands full, and while Tri Center has been better statistically, I think AC/GC can still play defense well, the other big one for me is if AC/GC has to throw the ball can they do it? Maybe the other question is can Tri-Center make AC/GC throw the ball.
Saint Ansgar vs Maquoketa Valley: I know this sounds crazy with a Saint Ansgar game but I think the key is in the air Friday. I would expect MV to load the box, Saint has thrown for probably more yards then in the last 25 seasons, but can they do that in a big game? Then Wapsie was pretty successful in the air last Friday how well does MV throw this Friday?
Lisbon vs Madrid: First key and this is a lame one, but turnovers, when Madrid lost to Earlham they lost the turnover battle 4-0, so that could be huge. Second key for me is which star has the better game, they are completely different though. Wicker is a QB, but is essentially the RB as well, so can Lisbon make his night difficult, and can Madrid adjust if they slow him down. Then can Lisbon contain the Boots kid, he is very very fast, can they stop him before he gets going?
West Hancock vs. Woodbury Central: I don't think weather will be a factor, so can Woodbury Central get off the field on 3rd downs, West Hancock when they are rolling can demoralize teams picking up 3rd down after 3rd down. For West Hancock can their defense step up and slow down Woodbury Central especially in the passing game, the first two rounds West Hancock has given up yards and points, and teams in the past that have beaten WH have been successful in the air.
AC/GC vs Tri-Center: This truly comes down to which defense plays better, I think both will have their hands full, and while Tri Center has been better statistically, I think AC/GC can still play defense well, the other big one for me is if AC/GC has to throw the ball can they do it? Maybe the other question is can Tri-Center make AC/GC throw the ball.
Saint Ansgar vs Maquoketa Valley: I know this sounds crazy with a Saint Ansgar game but I think the key is in the air Friday. I would expect MV to load the box, Saint has thrown for probably more yards then in the last 25 seasons, but can they do that in a big game? Then Wapsie was pretty successful in the air last Friday how well does MV throw this Friday?
Lisbon vs Madrid: First key and this is a lame one, but turnovers, when Madrid lost to Earlham they lost the turnover battle 4-0, so that could be huge. Second key for me is which star has the better game, they are completely different though. Wicker is a QB, but is essentially the RB as well, so can Lisbon make his night difficult, and can Madrid adjust if they slow him down. Then can Lisbon contain the Boots kid, he is very very fast, can they stop him before he gets going?
It is going to be really interesting how the quarters shake out. There is so much non-cross over competition as you get deeper into the playoffs. In some of the match-ups that certainly rings true. That being the case there is a good bit of unknown.
Leaning on winners being WH, ACGC (this one is probably the toughest matchup of all quarters), SA, Madrid. WH has tradition on their side. Based on ACGC stats they have weapons. They did give up some big points to two teams this season which you wonder about. Have not looked at stats on those games. If not a turnovers issue at play or players available issue in those then the D is an ingredient that could swing the pendulum TCs way. The counter to that is they have two backs over 1000, a 3rd with almost 900, and a 4th back that averages 8 YPC and nearly 4000 yards team rushing on the season. The WH boys' podcast mentioned passing being something questionable with ACGC so I looked. Have 550 yards passing this year. Around 1 out of every attempt it is a TD and 65% completion rate. What does that mean, not sure, but that adds up to almost 4600 offensive yards on the season which catches attention. Lisbon put up some big points and not so sure the S o S for MV is a chink in assessing their team strength. Lisbon takes a hit due to the questions on Pekin's S o S in my estimation as well. Madrid has Wicker and last year's dome experience on their side. Earlham and Woodward would bad losses but picked things back up and ran away from Pekin. Madrid wins but a factor could be not playing at home that makes it challenging. I miss the wishbone attack and ability to spread the ball around to multiple backs to make it difficult on opponents. Wicker carries the offense on his back pretty good the last two years and believe he will this game against Lisbon as well. Worrisome for me is that if you stop Wicker you stop Madrid. He carries the day again Friday.
Weather could play a part for some games.
Leaning on winners being WH, ACGC (this one is probably the toughest matchup of all quarters), SA, Madrid. WH has tradition on their side. Based on ACGC stats they have weapons. They did give up some big points to two teams this season which you wonder about. Have not looked at stats on those games. If not a turnovers issue at play or players available issue in those then the D is an ingredient that could swing the pendulum TCs way. The counter to that is they have two backs over 1000, a 3rd with almost 900, and a 4th back that averages 8 YPC and nearly 4000 yards team rushing on the season. The WH boys' podcast mentioned passing being something questionable with ACGC so I looked. Have 550 yards passing this year. Around 1 out of every attempt it is a TD and 65% completion rate. What does that mean, not sure, but that adds up to almost 4600 offensive yards on the season which catches attention. Lisbon put up some big points and not so sure the S o S for MV is a chink in assessing their team strength. Lisbon takes a hit due to the questions on Pekin's S o S in my estimation as well. Madrid has Wicker and last year's dome experience on their side. Earlham and Woodward would bad losses but picked things back up and ran away from Pekin. Madrid wins but a factor could be not playing at home that makes it challenging. I miss the wishbone attack and ability to spread the ball around to multiple backs to make it difficult on opponents. Wicker carries the offense on his back pretty good the last two years and believe he will this game against Lisbon as well. Worrisome for me is that if you stop Wicker you stop Madrid. He carries the day again Friday.
Weather could play a part for some games.
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Just recapping my beginning of the season post
District 1
Favorite: MMCRU
Top Challenger: Gehlen
I think that MMCRU returns the most from a very solid team, but they do lose a pretty good QB. I think Gehlen is always solid and returns quite a bit from a team that seemed to improve as the season went on. After that I see A-A, A-W and S-O competing for the last 2 playoff spots, A-W lost quite a bit from last year’s district title team.
I believe that MMCRU was without a couple of key players when they played Gehlen, if they have them they might have been the champ, and they played West Hancock very tough in the playoffs, overall I think I had this district pretty well predicted other then not seeing HMS making the playoffs.
District 2
Favorite: Saint Ansgar
Top Challenger: West Hancock
I went back and forth for who to make the favorite, I see both of these teams as top 5 teams in the state, Saint maybe returns a little more, but I also think that West Hancock rebuilds year after year. After those two it is Lake Mills, the one question, I have about them is numbers as they didn’t seem to have very many out, and the Bacon kid will be a big loss. For the four spot I would probably go with Newman but it’s a toss-up.
I mentioned the four playoff teams, I was higher on Lake Mills then what they finished. Saint and WH was a 1 point game, and two of the top teams in the state.
District 3
Favorite: Wapsie Valley
Top Challenger: Nashua Plainfield
This is Wapsie’s district, I think they are a top 5 team in the state and shouldn’t be challenged in the district. After that I put NP as the top challenger, but I think there are 4 teams competing for 3 playoff spots. NP, NB, and SW all lost some important seniors, I think NP probably returns the most experience, although NB, SW, and NT all return their QBs. NT I believe lost by a touchdown or less in 4 games last year, but depth could be a big concern.
Wapsie won the district and NP was second, I was probably a little too high on Wapsie overall, but they did have a successful season.
District 4
Favorite: Starmont
Top Challenger: Maquoketa Valley
This is a district where I think there are 5 teams competing for 4 playoff spots. I took Starmont as the favorite as I think they return the most, although the King kid that they lost was a great athlete. Maquoketa Valley lost the McShane kid which is a huge loss, but they started a bunch of sophomores last year, that is why I put them at two. East Buc is well coached, but Thurn, Bowers, and Fox powered that team last year. North Linn has been solid the last few years, but I think they take a step back, and Bellevue is always solid.
Starmont underperformed, but also had some injuries,
District 5
Favorite: Lisbon
Top Challenger: Pekin
I think Lisbon is the clear favorite in this district, and should roll to a district title, overall I think the district will be weak again. I put Pekin at 2 I think that they have the most questions answered going into the season for me. I see Columbus taking a step back with Amigon graduating but I still think that they are a playoff team. I would take Danville as a playoff team again, and am interested to see what they do in year to in their return to football.
District 6
Favorite: Madrid
Top Challenger: Mount Ayr
Mount Ayr is kind of the pick of a lot of people I have seen, and I will go with them as well, but I do think that this district is closer then many think. Mount Ayr returns just about everyone off of a very young team and as a program has made the dome in the past so they do have some pedigree and they could very easily jump up and win the district. I still think Lynnville Sully will be decent and a playoff team. For the last spot I see Central Decatur or North Mahaska. North Mahaska has been down for a while but seem to be returning some nice pieces as well.
District 7
Favorite: AC/GC
Top Challenger: Earlham
I think AC/GC is turning themselves into one of the most consistent programs in small school football in Iowa, the question is if they will take another step to the dome this year. Maybe a few questions on defense but I think a clear favorite. I took Earlham second as they are consistent and return quite a bit, but I could see them fall to 3 or 4 as well. After that I think that IKM and Riverside show the most returning so I would take them for the final two spots.
District 8
Favorite: Woodbury Central
Top Challenger: Logan Magnolia
I think that this is Woodbury Central’s district until someone really challenges them. They do lose a great quarterback but I think return enough for a runner up team to be the favorite. I took LoMa second because I think they return enough and are typically solid throughout the years. After that I don’t know who the final two spots will be. Are KP-RV going together after this year? If not, I could see that being a problem. Westwood, Tri Center and even Saint Albert could contend for playoff spots.
My Top 10
1. Saint Ansgar
2. AC/GC
3. Wapsie Valley
4. West Hancock
5. Woodbury Central
6. Madrid
7. MMCRU
8. Lisbon
9. Starmont
10. Mount Ayr
There is always a gap between the haves and have nots in Class A, but I think there is going to be more parity amongst the top teams this year.
District 1
Favorite: MMCRU
Top Challenger: Gehlen
I think that MMCRU returns the most from a very solid team, but they do lose a pretty good QB. I think Gehlen is always solid and returns quite a bit from a team that seemed to improve as the season went on. After that I see A-A, A-W and S-O competing for the last 2 playoff spots, A-W lost quite a bit from last year’s district title team.
I believe that MMCRU was without a couple of key players when they played Gehlen, if they have them they might have been the champ, and they played West Hancock very tough in the playoffs, overall I think I had this district pretty well predicted other then not seeing HMS making the playoffs.
District 2
Favorite: Saint Ansgar
Top Challenger: West Hancock
I went back and forth for who to make the favorite, I see both of these teams as top 5 teams in the state, Saint maybe returns a little more, but I also think that West Hancock rebuilds year after year. After those two it is Lake Mills, the one question, I have about them is numbers as they didn’t seem to have very many out, and the Bacon kid will be a big loss. For the four spot I would probably go with Newman but it’s a toss-up.
I mentioned the four playoff teams, I was higher on Lake Mills then what they finished. Saint and WH was a 1 point game, and two of the top teams in the state.
District 3
Favorite: Wapsie Valley
Top Challenger: Nashua Plainfield
This is Wapsie’s district, I think they are a top 5 team in the state and shouldn’t be challenged in the district. After that I put NP as the top challenger, but I think there are 4 teams competing for 3 playoff spots. NP, NB, and SW all lost some important seniors, I think NP probably returns the most experience, although NB, SW, and NT all return their QBs. NT I believe lost by a touchdown or less in 4 games last year, but depth could be a big concern.
Wapsie won the district and NP was second, I was probably a little too high on Wapsie overall, but they did have a successful season.
District 4
Favorite: Starmont
Top Challenger: Maquoketa Valley
This is a district where I think there are 5 teams competing for 4 playoff spots. I took Starmont as the favorite as I think they return the most, although the King kid that they lost was a great athlete. Maquoketa Valley lost the McShane kid which is a huge loss, but they started a bunch of sophomores last year, that is why I put them at two. East Buc is well coached, but Thurn, Bowers, and Fox powered that team last year. North Linn has been solid the last few years, but I think they take a step back, and Bellevue is always solid.
Starmont underperformed, but also had some injuries,
District 5
Favorite: Lisbon
Top Challenger: Pekin
I think Lisbon is the clear favorite in this district, and should roll to a district title, overall I think the district will be weak again. I put Pekin at 2 I think that they have the most questions answered going into the season for me. I see Columbus taking a step back with Amigon graduating but I still think that they are a playoff team. I would take Danville as a playoff team again, and am interested to see what they do in year to in their return to football.
District 6
Favorite: Madrid
Top Challenger: Mount Ayr
Mount Ayr is kind of the pick of a lot of people I have seen, and I will go with them as well, but I do think that this district is closer then many think. Mount Ayr returns just about everyone off of a very young team and as a program has made the dome in the past so they do have some pedigree and they could very easily jump up and win the district. I still think Lynnville Sully will be decent and a playoff team. For the last spot I see Central Decatur or North Mahaska. North Mahaska has been down for a while but seem to be returning some nice pieces as well.
District 7
Favorite: AC/GC
Top Challenger: Earlham
I think AC/GC is turning themselves into one of the most consistent programs in small school football in Iowa, the question is if they will take another step to the dome this year. Maybe a few questions on defense but I think a clear favorite. I took Earlham second as they are consistent and return quite a bit, but I could see them fall to 3 or 4 as well. After that I think that IKM and Riverside show the most returning so I would take them for the final two spots.
District 8
Favorite: Woodbury Central
Top Challenger: Logan Magnolia
I think that this is Woodbury Central’s district until someone really challenges them. They do lose a great quarterback but I think return enough for a runner up team to be the favorite. I took LoMa second because I think they return enough and are typically solid throughout the years. After that I don’t know who the final two spots will be. Are KP-RV going together after this year? If not, I could see that being a problem. Westwood, Tri Center and even Saint Albert could contend for playoff spots.
My Top 10
1. Saint Ansgar
2. AC/GC
3. Wapsie Valley
4. West Hancock
5. Woodbury Central
6. Madrid
7. MMCRU
8. Lisbon
9. Starmont
10. Mount Ayr
There is always a gap between the haves and have nots in Class A, but I think there is going to be more parity amongst the top teams this year.
You guys should live stream West Hancock sports on this channel. The streams on the radio site while appreciated are less than great.
BCMoore Rankings
Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Data source: gobound.com/iahsaa.org, 2024-11-22 15:48
3. Congratulations to Tri-Center!
Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Data source: gobound.com/iahsaa.org, 2024-11-22 15:48
3. Congratulations to Tri-Center!
Code:
R Team Conf ( W- L) Mod
1 Neola Tri-Center W Ia (12- 1) 162.48
2 Britt West Hancock ToIa (12- 1) 156.18
3 Saint Ansgar ToIa (10- 2) 151.11
4 LeMars Gehlen War ( 8- 2) 147.74
5 Lisbon TriR (10- 1) 147.32
6 Madrid W C ( 9- 3) 146.19
7 Woodbury Central W V ( 8- 3) 144.21
8 Guthrie Center GC-AC W C (10- 1) 143.50There is something wrong with the ability for the computer rankings to accurately measure the east side of the state. Pekin was a coin flip game vs Madrid and it was a blowout. Lisbon gets beat by Madrid yet Lisbon still has enough "seasonal credit" to be ranked above the team that dominated them in a head to head.
There are several in that list of 8 I would move around. The easiest of those is Lisbon. Lisbon and Pekin met head to head 28-15. Pekin never punted in the game. Earlham beats Madrid in regular season. Earlham proved to be a pretty good team, but they ended the season with 3 losses. (mentioned only to dovetail into my whole west central iowa and sw Iowa hypothesis on where a higher amount of the better class A teams are located and concentrated and more will be stated on this later)
Power Index in Bound shows Lisbon 5-1 vs .500+ teams. Pekin opponents record a very poor 25 - 30 and opponents / opponents 41 - 50. Vs .500 teams 3-2 . Gehlen's opponents record was 21 - 34 and opponents / opponents record of 41 - 45. Vs .500 teams went 3-2.
Looking at BCMoore rankings and looking at Bound Power Index data, it appears the Power Index is a more fair representation of pecking order. My opinion based on my west central / southwest hypothesis.
When you have four quadrants and each quadrant must be represented in the playoff brackets things get a bit out of kilter. Overall weak geographic areas have teams that come out with great win / loss records but a product of who they play. Then you have that whole geographic pool of weaker teams being judged just like every other area of the state you get skewed data.
Yet it always comes out in the sauce as the brackets get played out. So in the final analysis of the top 8 above, Saint Ansgar is overrated. LeMars Gehlen is overrated. Lisbon is overrated.
Tri-Center was underrated the entire year prior to playoffs. Also a telling ingredient of some areas of the state getting too much credit and other not. I stated early on that Central West and Southwest area of the state had a lot of excellent class A teams and that East side of state overall is weaker in in class A. Some laughed. I think that is how it all played out in reality and stand by the three teams mentioned as being overrated.
As it turns out based on what Earlham did (Earlham is a "connector" by way of playing Madrid), I would think that few teams from the east side of the state would have wanted to see them. Yet Earlham was a decent team in the context of the central west and southwest. But they were not a great team in the context of the central west and southwest area. They had 3 losses on the year and two regular season losses. One to Riverside. The other to ACGC. Another "but" needing said is they beat Madrid. A semi-finalist team. Hard to ignore the "connector".
I would be interested to know what BCMoore thinks about the "Schedule Rank" that GoBound ended at. How relevant or not relevant? Is it data relevant? How bout the "Power Ranking" data? Same relevancy question too. GoBound rankings and BCMoore rankings are not at all similar. So disimilar that one of the two indexes and data is way off. Which one?
GoBound seems to agree as to the strength of the west central and sw area of the state. Believe the data on specifically SA, Lisbon, Pekin, Gehlen are also relevant to supporting that hypothesis. Earlham as well playing the "connector" card w/ Madrid. This top 8 list is batting just over .500 in a true representation of a statewide top 8 IMHO.
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