4A schedule and districts info 2020-21

[Reasoned]

After considering the whole scheduling/PO debacle in IA, decided to see what our similar sized neighbor KS does. They appear to have 32 teams/class, play 8 regular season games and the 9th game is the first round of the PO’s (so everyone’s in). The PO brackets are either East/West (16 in each) or 4 quadrants with 8 teams in each, with the seeding determined by regular season records (not sure if they use conferences/districts etc., didn’t put that much time reviewing this ). Point is, sometimes there’s a lot to be said for keeping things simple.

 

[bjohnson1102]

Schedules are out...I'm biased, so I think Ankeny Centennial has the toughest schedule in the state

https://www.iahsaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Football-2020-Class-4A-Schedules.txt

 

[Reasoned]

Bettendorf has no walk in the park either.

 

[CF_93]

Bettendorf has no walk in the park either.

Wow! Looks like all or most of those tier 1 schools are gonna have meat grinder schedules! They play most of the others, with a few exceptions. CF and Valley miss each other, Centennial misses Iowa City West and Bettendorf, Bettendorf just misses Ankeny Centennial, Dowling misses Iowa City West, while Valley misses CF and ICW. ICW misses Dowling, Valley, and Centennial.

 

[Reasoned]

Yeah, there’s no down time for the tier 1 schools, they come through the regular season undefeated (or with a loss) and you’ve accomplished something.

 

[oldtimefootball]

Agreed. Ankeny Cent. with toughest (with caveat that Liberty plays to one of the top 15 level programs which I think they will. ) Numbers based off success model rankings show toughest as Centennial (8.4 average*, Dowling(9.3),Waukee (9.8) Bettendorf(10.7), CF/Valley tied @ 10.9 and Iowa City West a ways back (14.5) Again, Liberty will impact ICW numbers.

All teams will be tested before playoffs.

 

[bjohnson1102]

I think it will be interesting to see how the numbers play out. Again, speaking for Centennial, I know they will have maybe 50 kids on the varsity roster, while replacing 20! starters. I hope that because of the difficulty of these schedules, these tier 1 and tier 2 teams don't go into the playoffs all banged up from the rough schedules, only to face a tier 3 or 4 team that has a great year and stays relatively healthy. Flip side is, I think there will be a lot of fun games this year!

 

[Reasoned]

I think it will be interesting to see how the numbers play out. Again, speaking for Centennial, I know they will have maybe 50 kids on the varsity roster, while replacing 20! starters. I hope that because of the difficulty of these schedules, these tier 1 and tier 2 teams don't go into the playoffs all banged up from the rough schedules, only to face a tier 3 or 4 team that has a great year and stays relatively healthy. Flip side is, I think there will be a lot of fun games this year!

Good points all, I guess that’s what the IHSAA has in mind when creating a regular season schedule like this...at least it would appear that way.

 

[SpinningBird]

Marshalltown finishes 8-1. Book it.

 

[CF_93]

Well I haven't really had time to digest the other tier's schedules yet, but I'd be shocked if anyone from tier 1 or 2 got out with better than a 7-2 record. Get ready for a lot of record parity this fall!

 

[bjohnson1102]

Marshalltown finishes 8-1. Book it.

Yes, I looked at that schedule and I agree. And if they make the playoffs it will be a shame if they bump one of the tier 1 or tier 2 teams that only win 4 or 5 games.

 

[Cc5db]

Yes, I looked at that schedule and I agree. And if they make the playoffs it will be a shame if they bump one of the tier 1 or tier 2 teams that only win 4 or 5 games.

just looked at schedule, yes they should finish very well, however, will not have a good RPI with that schedule

 

[Cc5db]

Well I haven't really had time to digest the other tier's schedules yet, but I'd be shocked if anyone from tier 1 or 2 got out with better than a 7-2 record. Get ready for a lot of record parity this fall!

Valley probably goes 9-0, although, I do agree that several teams probably go 7-2 or maybe a few pull out 8-1; Waukee, SEP, CF, Ankeny, Dowling

 

[Cc5db]

Schedules are out...I'm biased, so I think Ankeny Centennial has the toughest schedule in the state

https://www.iahsaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Football-2020-Class-4A-Schedules.txt

Ouch, the guys in Boone did no favors to Ankeny Centennial, 4 of the first 5 games are brutal, then end the year with CF and Valley. Not sure if they are reloading, but think they lost a lot.

 

[Kraftwerk]

I like the schedules.

 

[Reasoned]

Has anyone taken the time to run the numbers on RPI calculations to see if going 8-1 or 7-2 vs 3-6 & 2-7 teams is scored higher than going 5-4 & 6-3 vs 6-3 & 7-2 teams? In other words, if one or more of the tier 3, 4 or 5 teams finishes the season with a winning record against weaker peers will it trump a tier 1 or 2 which ends up perhaps losing 3 or 4 games playing other higher tier teams...if so that would be a shame.

 

[oldtimefootball]

Havent run any scenarios, but from a macro level, tier 1-2 teams should get help from better opponents record and better opp. opponents records (combined 62.5% of RPI), where tier 3-4 teams will only get help from having an improved overall record (37.5%) of RPI.

How that actually plays out I dont know. Examples would be fun to review.

 

[franky1967]

CF has a talented class, I'm not sure what they have coming back, but CF could very well have it's 1st losing season in almost 25yrs

 

[bjohnson1102]

Ouch, the guys in Boone did no favors to Ankeny Centennial, 4 of the first 5 games are brutal, then end the year with CF and Valley. Not sure if they are reloading, but think they lost a lot.

Centennial lost a ton. 20 starters were seniors. That being said, the juniors played well as freshman and as sophomores, so we'll see. At this point, defense will be the concern. Not a ton of LB or DB size. My son was a junior starter last year as one of the RBs. He is up to 205 pounds, and they are likely going to have him play both ways, which he hasn't done since freshman year, as they obviously prefer to avoid 2 way players against 4a competition. He will need to be in the best shape of his life

 

[bjohnson1102]

I also think Waukee will be positioned nicely, due the enormous numbers they will have this final year before they split. Depth will go a long way for any of these top tier teams...

 

[mthawkeyes]

Centennial lost a ton. 20 starters were seniors. That being said, the juniors played well as freshman and as sophomores, so we'll see. At this point, defense will be the concern. Not a ton of LB or DB size. My son was a junior starter last year as one of the RBs. He is up to 205 pounds, and they are likely going to have him play both ways, which he hasn't done since freshman year, as they obviously prefer to avoid 2 way players against 4a competition. He will need to be in the best shape of his life

There are a number of talented, athletic kids in those classes, but there isn't a lot of depth, especially on the OL and DL. The rising sophomore class is pretty good (undefeated with only one close game) and there will need to be 4-6 kids out of that class play a significant role. We have a lot of continuity with schemes at the sub-varsity level, but the difference in speed and physically from the freshman to varsity level is huge, especially given the competition.

 

[CF_93]

CF has a talented class, I'm not sure what they have coming back, but CF could very well have it's 1st losing season in almost 25yrs

CF has a lot more back on offense than defense. WR's Trey Campbell and Daniel Hutchins should be good, and got at least 3 returning starting OL's, plus Jayson Weiland, who had considerable playing time. And my money is on Landon Wolf winning the starting QB job after Cael Loecher graduates, and I think he'll excel in that position with his athleticism. The question for CF is can they replace 8 of 11 starters on defense, and get a little more size on D, especially up front. They were a little small last year as it was. I think CF goes at least 6-3, maybe 7-2, as a lot of those tier 1 teams are just gonna beat up on each other.

 

[Reasoned]

Given the strength of schedule for the upper tier teams, a deep bench would certainly be a benefit for the long haul. I suspect teams will be forced to have their starters in the second half in more games, unlike previous years. Also due to declining participation among many 4A schools, there seems to be a greater reliance on two way players. At any rate it should separate the wheat from the chaff by the end of the regular season.

 

[TJ732]

Has anyone taken the time to run the numbers on RPI calculations to see if going 8-1 or 7-2 vs 3-6 & 2-7 teams is scored higher than going 5-4 & 6-3 vs 6-3 & 7-2 teams? In other words, if one or more of the tier 3, 4 or 5 teams finishes the season with a winning record against weaker peers will it trump a tier 1 or 2 which ends up perhaps losing 3 or 4 games playing other higher tier teams...if so that would be a shame.

RPI breaks down to being +10 in Opponents Wins is "basically" equal to 1 Win on your own record. Tier 1 will get a big bump in Opp Rec and Opp Opp records

 

[Reasoned]

Got to believe between Covid, the derecho and who knows what else, the current schedules will be in flux from week to week. Schools may end up playing opponents they would have never thought. Does anyone know what the policy will be concerning fan attendance?

 

[ISUChip]

Got to believe between Covid, the derecho and who knows what else, the current schedules will be in flux from week to week. Schools may end up playing opponents they would have never thought. Does anyone know what the policy will be concerning fan attendance?

At this point, it's likely that the only changes will be cancellations as we go. There won't be enough lead time to find and fill mutual open dates.

Conferences have been issuing their own attendance rules.