4A, 3A Substate Teams are Out

[EastIowaHawk]

The IHSAA site has the 4A and 3A substates listed, with pairings to come out later. I'll bet the pairings will go a little more on schedule strength than previously. I'll wait for Luke or somebody to post the lists, but the substates are definitely set up to get the top ranked teams to state.

Here's who I think will win each of the substates:

4A- Substate 1- SC East over SC West
4A- Substate 2- Cedar Falls over Dub. Hempstead
4A- Substate 3- Dub. Senior over North Scott
4A- Substate 4- Pleasant Valley over Muscatine
4A- Substate 5- IC West over CR Prairie
4A- Substate 6- Waukee over WDM Dowling
4A- Substate 7- DM Hoover over WDM Valley
4A- Substate 8- DM North over Johnston

3A- Substate 1- SC Heelan over Spirit Lake
3A- Substate 2- Charles City over Waverly
3A- Substate 3- CR Xavier will walk in untouched; incredibly weak substate
3A- Substate 4- Dav. Assumption, West Delaware or Wahlert
3A- Substate 5- Mt. Pleasant should walk in easily
3A- Substate 6- Oskaloosa over Pella
3A- Substate 7- Norwalk over DC- Grimes
3A- Substate 8- Glenwood over Harlan

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Surprised there are no comments since this was posted a few days ago..

 

[sprolesistheman]

in 3A Looks like Substate 4 and 8 are the toughest possibly could make a case for 1 as well.. 4 is tough with 3 top BC Moore teams Assumption, Wahlert, and West Delaware..

Obviously will be some upsets somewhere as there is a lot of parity..

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Agree. Lots of balance in the state this year.

 

[todd_schisler]

Not one team with a winning record in with IC West -- what a joke! Sioux City East' s substate is a joke as well. I really wish the state had people on that committee that actually watched high school basketball games and studied the teams and their schedules a little bit.

 

[maxstabs13]

Assuming the current standing/records of each team... This is the seeding
SS1
SC East
SC West
CB Lincoln
Lewis Central
SC North
CB Jefferson

SS2
Western Dubuque
DBQ Hempstead
Cedar Falls
Waterloo West
Waterloo East
Mason City

SS3
North Scott
DBQ Senior
Dav West
Bettendorf
Dav Central
Clinton

SS4
Pleasant Valley
Dav North
Muscatine
Linn Mar
CR Jefferson
Burlington

SS5
IC West
CR Prairie
CR Kennedy
CR Washington
Ottumwa
IC High

SS6
Waukee
WDM Dowling
Indianola
Newton
DM Roosevelt
Southeast Polk

SS7
DM Hoover
Ankeny Cenetennial
WDM Valley
Urbandale
DM Lincoln
Marshalltown

SS8
DM North
Johnston
Fort Dodge
Ames
Ankeny
DM East

Assuming those seeds the teams in bold would be my Substate Finals match ups in 4A. These are my winners

SC East- As long as they have Vanderloo they aren't getting beat in this SS.
Cedar Falls- They are starting to put things together and we have seen they can take down the big dogs.
DBQ Senior- Healthy Carter is a good start to a post season run.
Dav North- A little bias showing here, but if they can turn regular season close losses to Muscatine and PV around they will head to DM.
IC West- Prairie could give them a battle if they are hitting shots. In the stiuation of a Kennedy upset or Wash upset over Prairie, ICW would walk into State no problems.
Waukee- Tough to pick. Dowling struggles with athleticism and Waukee more finesse and size. I think they still pull it off.
DM Hoover- I struggle deciding who Hoover will play more than deciding if they will win. I think it will be close, but Valley and Centennial aren't quite good enough this year.
Johnston- The real test for Johnston will be Hoover at the end of the season. I think the defense is solid enough to slow down North in a rematch. If North can force turnovers Johnston will struggle. Locure struggled in the first game, but Kallo had a big game and North got 11 steals. Johnston can't do that if they meet again.

 

[makelovenotwar]

I think I heard Assumption's big man is out for the season. If true, I take West DBQ or Wahlert to win that substate. I would love to see WD vs Wahlert in the finals and this is one of the few really personal rivalries left in the state. These 2 programs (I think it starts with the coaches) really do not seem to like each other. One of the "bad" things about youth sports is they so emphasize being nice etc. etc. So few of the old St. Pat's (Irish) vs St. Joe's (German) games in which kids wanted to fight more than play. Wahlert-WDBQ is about as close to that old rivalry as we get.

Still, being a betting man I would take Assumption vs WDBQ in the finals with W DBQ winning.

 

[Hawki45]

I think I heard Assumption's big man is out for the season. If true, I take West DBQ or Wahlert to win that substate. I would love to see WD vs Wahlert in the finals and this is one of the few really personal rivalries left in the state. These 2 programs (I think it starts with the coaches) really do not seem to like each other. One of the "bad" things about youth sports is they so emphasize being nice etc. etc. So few of the old St. Pat's (Irish) vs St. Joe's (German) games in which kids wanted to fight more than play. Wahlert-WDBQ is about as close to that old rivalry as we get.

Still, being a betting man I would take Assumption vs WDBQ in the finals with W DBQ winning.

I’m assuming you mean West Deleware as Western DBQ is 4A. Either way, that’s a tough substate, but with the east side being strong this year someone is going to end up unhappy. I think the state did a good job with 3A this year. CR Xavier may have an easy road this year, but I think they have earned it. Went through the toughest substate last year. Mt Pleasant should have an easy time in there’s as well, but you never know with Solon....well coached team with some legit star power.

I have no issues with 4A either...glad they split up Hempstead and Senior, unfortunately for Hempstead they are grouped with CF who might be the best team in the state. I understand the state trying to get Wieskamp there, probably got the easiest path they could get, that being said I think LM or PV come out of that one. Will be fun to see how everything gets seeded.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

For Assumption the shorter, more athletic Peeters is out; the taller 6-6 or 6-7 Peeters is playing. Agree that Assumption is probably the favorite in Substate 4, even though they lost to Wahlert 59- 50 with both Peeters playing early. Wahlert has not lost to a 3A team. I know of no bad blood between Wahlert coaches and either West Delaware or Western Dubuque coaches. The Western Dubuque students love to beat Wahlert; just hasn't happened very often. They often scrimmage each other prior to the season, but will meet regularly starting next year. Western Dubuque in 4A has some really talented players, but they've been struggling and I don't see them upsetting the leaders in their substate. Regarding Hempstead and Cedar Falls-- if they meet that'll be a dead-even donnybrook. Hempstead's talent is spread out more evenly, and Cedar Falls relies heavily on Mr. Green. Whichever team is hitting will win that one. Regarding Iowa City West, it may be best to put them in a weak substate, because as I said in another earlier post-- who wants to play them? Probably a lot of people are pulling for Muscatine to get to state because they want to see Joe Weiskamp play against the better teams which will be down there. PV may be favored, but I think the Muskies could pull it off if Joe gets some help. CR Xavier is the odds-on pick to win 3A, but they rely heavily on two of the best players around. 3A could be a lot tougher this year than most other years, however, and Oskaloosa or Mt. Pleasant could give them a serious run. Oskaloosa impressed me a lot when I saw them, even though they lost in OT. SC Heelan has lost some close games lately to some pretty good teams, and it's been a very long time since they have made a run at the title. By the time a team gets to state, the teams not only have to be peaking, the coach also has to have a really good game plan, offensively and defensively. IC West and Xavier are two of the best defensive teams around, which ups their odds of winning. Senior is really good on defense too. Back to 4A-- there are some tough teams in the Des Moines area, as always, but I haven't seen any of them play in person. Best team I've seen in person-- Dub. Senior with Carter. This is the first year in many that I haven'y seen Iowa City West play. Enough of this ramble.

 

[maxstabs13]

I believe Dylan was playing with a bad back against Wahlert. Sean is out but he is shorter, yet he is the dirty work bruiser. Dylan is a lengthy slasher with a nearly unstoppable baseline drive. Sean was no where near as good to start the year. He was playing the best basketball one the team when he got hurt. Assumption also lost Landon Dugan at the beginning of the year. Depth is now an issue but dont expect a talent drop. They were 9 deep before those two got hurt. Valainas and Thrapp will battle with anyone. Klemme replaced Sean last game. He doesn't offer much offensively but plays hard at both ends and is quicker than Sean. Dylan is 6'7 wing so he's obviously a problem. Fitzpatrick is the piece that must stay healthy at PG. Kotula and Powers are 3pt spark plugs off the bench but defensive liable.

I coached Fitz, Powers, Klemme, and Dugan as freshman. Dugan injury hurt most because it basically left Fitz as the only point guard on the team. Sean is really good but they have decent post depth.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

I thought Assumption was a very good team when I saw them play in December. And they are well-coached. Agree Fitzpatrick is the Knight's key man. Wahlert had three kids, including one starter, out for that game. Last year, Assumption had both district games on their home floor. Hope that doesn't happen again. Wahlert has very strong Dub. Hempstead next Fri., then at Cedar Falls, CR Xavier coming in to play on the 13th, and they finish at CR Prairie. These are four extremely tough games, and to win just one of them would be quite a feat, leading into the tourney.

 

[sarcastico]

For 3A district 1 will be tough as always. You have to give Heelan the edge but Spirit Lake and LeMars will really make them earn it. I think districts 7 and 8 will also be very competitive. Norwalk and Glenwood are the likely winners, but I would not be surprised to see an upset or two in either of those districts.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

It's one of the most wide-open tournaments in many years.

 

[Iowamavs14]

Looking at BC Moore, substrate 1 has 4 teams in the top 13 schools(SC Heelan, Spirit Lake, Lemars and Seargent Bluff).

In contrast Substate 2 highest rated team is #14.

Pairings are difficult but it would be nice to see the state officials balance things out a bit.