2A State Predictions
- Thread starter High5forCY
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The move makes perfect sense to me and is a good one for Saydel (probably for the HOI too). Interenstingly enough, with Saydel's move, the HOI won't be a predominantly 2A conference for much longer. I believe Gilbert's growth pushes them to 3A competition next season and North Polk is only about 20 students away from making the jump. Roland-Story has a ways to go, about 40 students, but still within striking distance. It's concievable the conference could jump from 2 to 5 3A members in the next 2-3 years.
You can check out the enrollment/classification figures for the 2012-2013 school year at http://www.iahsaa.org/2012-2013%20BED's%20Num.pdf
You can check out the enrollment/classification figures for the 2012-2013 school year at http://www.iahsaa.org/2012-2013%20BED's%20Num.pdf
Rankings are per Moore. No secret I have no use for Moore's individual rankings. Too often they don't reflect what actually happens on the field. IE: Someone soundly beats another team yet still remains ranked behind them. Top teams lose yet don't fall, ect.... I do find his SOS a nice tool when used as an indicator (not a specific ranking) of how tough a team's schedule is. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger so I do have an interest in following team SOS. I also give more credibility to his conference and district rankings. Why? Because they represent a larger accumulation of data into 1 ranking. You are talking about a group of teams and not 1. Anytime you are dealing with statistics, the larger the base of data (or number of teams in this instance) the more accurate your results will be. Once again though just like SOS I use this as an indicator and not a hard ranking. In other words had the RRC and HOIC been within a couple spots of each other (either way) I wouldn't have even brought it up.
Nice shutouts by both Saydel and Nevada last night. Saydel blanked a winning 3A Perry to keep a 9 game streak alive and Nevada did what they should and crushed a .500 1A Colo Neso. I will say last night typifies what I said about SOS and is why I believe Saydel will beat Nevada in the first round of the playoffs.
Nice shutouts by both Saydel and Nevada last night. Saydel blanked a winning 3A Perry to keep a 9 game streak alive and Nevada did what they should and crushed a .500 1A Colo Neso. I will say last night typifies what I said about SOS and is why I believe Saydel will beat Nevada in the first round of the playoffs.
In football and basketball, 2A and 3A are very comparable in regards to the top 10-15 teams.
I'm not sure about baseball. I suspect there is a gap in baseball that we dont see in FB and Bb due to specialization/summer and the larger schools not as affected by this attrition.
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I'm not sure about baseball. I suspect there is a gap in baseball that we dont see in FB and Bb due to specialization/summer and the larger schools not as affected by this attrition.
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dbears,
There is nothing wrong with NPs SOS of 8th. There is also nothing wrong with Saydels of 25th. Both are a good SOS for their prospective pool (especially NP). Sorry to tell you though that if you look at the 4A-1A ranking of all teams they have Saydel at 74 and NP at 86 (I'd call that a wash in my book). Another apple to apple comparison might be to look at Saydels 3A ranking of 25 and compare that to Nevada's 3A ranking of 53. I do not consider that a wash.
I'm not picking on Nevada because it is very common for a 3A school in a mixed class conference to acquire an unfavorable SOS simply due to the smaller teams they are playing. Let's look at another mixed conference-the NCC. You have 5-3A, 4-2A and 1-2A school. The 3A SOS's are as follows: Clear Lake = 48, IFA = 60, Algona = 56, Humboldt = 63, and Webster City = 39. Those are all low SOS rankings and it will show when the NCC 3A teams enter the second season in baseball and basketball. There is a big tendancy of underperformance by the NCC 3A teams. WC's SOS of 39 isn't a bad number but the fact they have only won 5 games indicates that their sechedule even in a mixed conference is too tough for them. What about the NCC 2A? FDSE = 22, Hampton Dumont = 33, Eagle Grove = 27, and Clarion Goldfield = 57. 1A Algona Garrigan = 4. See a pattern?
Bottom line is that I don't think the HOIC is a weak conference and I believe the organic growth many of their schools are experiencing will make it a even stronger one.
There is nothing wrong with NPs SOS of 8th. There is also nothing wrong with Saydels of 25th. Both are a good SOS for their prospective pool (especially NP). Sorry to tell you though that if you look at the 4A-1A ranking of all teams they have Saydel at 74 and NP at 86 (I'd call that a wash in my book). Another apple to apple comparison might be to look at Saydels 3A ranking of 25 and compare that to Nevada's 3A ranking of 53. I do not consider that a wash.
I'm not picking on Nevada because it is very common for a 3A school in a mixed class conference to acquire an unfavorable SOS simply due to the smaller teams they are playing. Let's look at another mixed conference-the NCC. You have 5-3A, 4-2A and 1-2A school. The 3A SOS's are as follows: Clear Lake = 48, IFA = 60, Algona = 56, Humboldt = 63, and Webster City = 39. Those are all low SOS rankings and it will show when the NCC 3A teams enter the second season in baseball and basketball. There is a big tendancy of underperformance by the NCC 3A teams. WC's SOS of 39 isn't a bad number but the fact they have only won 5 games indicates that their sechedule even in a mixed conference is too tough for them. What about the NCC 2A? FDSE = 22, Hampton Dumont = 33, Eagle Grove = 27, and Clarion Goldfield = 57. 1A Algona Garrigan = 4. See a pattern?
Bottom line is that I don't think the HOIC is a weak conference and I believe the organic growth many of their schools are experiencing will make it a even stronger one.
Five/Six years ago, I rememeber reading Nevada hadn't had a winning season for twenty/twenty five years (I think they had one year where they went something like 15-15, though). And previous to this year, they've been quite a bit below .500 for an extended period. I think its possible this year's team may be breaking a very, very long streak of futility.
...they do have a helluva soccer program and for a school their size that could be a problem for their baseball team 
North Union is still in
FDSE is still in
Columbus lost 3-2 to North Fayette tonight
Regina lost 9-5 to Monticello tonight... Wilton and West Branch still in... Mt. Vernon as well
Davis County is still in
PCM, Monroe is still in
North Polk is still in... As is Hudson... Roland Story and East Marshall look strong though
Carroll Kuemper is still in
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