2A State Predictions
- Thread starter High5forCY
- Start date
What are your predictions?
Mine:
North Union
FDSE
Columbus... Really a Toss up with Beckman... Long shots Maq Valley, SW, NF, SF
Regina... Wilton and West Branch could very easily be there instead
Davis County
PCM
North Polk... Hudson could, but I think they fall just short once again
Carroll Kuemper
Seeding Wise...
Waterloo Columbus(Points:57)---8 Points in case of a tie-breaker after H2H
Davis County(Points:54)
North Polk(Points:49)---5 Points in case of a tie-breaker after H2H
IC Regina(Points:45)---3 Points in case of a tie-breaker...
FD St.Edmond(Points:42)---2 Points in case of a tie-breaker...
PCM, Monroe(Points:39)---2 Points in case of a tie-breaker...
Carroll Kuemper(Points:35)---10 Points in case of a tie-breaker...
North Union(Points:31)---2 Points in case of a tie-breaker...
Other teams mentioned:
Beckman(55 Points)
Wilton(35 Points 25 games)---4 Points in case of tie-breaker
Hudson(35 Points 24 games)--- 2 Points in case of tie-breaker
Maq Valley(27 Points)
Eddysville Blakesburg(26 Points)
NEGL(27 Points)
Mine:
North Union
FDSE
Columbus... Really a Toss up with Beckman... Long shots Maq Valley, SW, NF, SF
Regina... Wilton and West Branch could very easily be there instead
Davis County
PCM
North Polk... Hudson could, but I think they fall just short once again
Carroll Kuemper
Seeding Wise...
Waterloo Columbus(Points:57)---8 Points in case of a tie-breaker after H2H
Davis County(Points:54)
North Polk(Points:49)---5 Points in case of a tie-breaker after H2H
IC Regina(Points:45)---3 Points in case of a tie-breaker...
FD St.Edmond(Points:42)---2 Points in case of a tie-breaker...
PCM, Monroe(Points:39)---2 Points in case of a tie-breaker...
Carroll Kuemper(Points:35)---10 Points in case of a tie-breaker...
North Union(Points:31)---2 Points in case of a tie-breaker...
Other teams mentioned:
Beckman(55 Points)
Wilton(35 Points 25 games)---4 Points in case of tie-breaker
Hudson(35 Points 24 games)--- 2 Points in case of tie-breaker
Maq Valley(27 Points)
Eddysville Blakesburg(26 Points)
NEGL(27 Points)
No statistical evidence to back these up, but my gut check predictions are
The "underdog who could win it all" team North Polk - better than people think on paper, well coached by Middleton, played a tough regular season schedule and ticked off at losing to Gilbert in extra innings a year ago
The "no one should be surprised to see them win it" team: Carrol Keumper - another talented and well coached team, also driven by a Gilbert loss in the semi's, I think they'll be peaking at the right time.
"Hardest road to repeat": team: Davis County - my personal favorite to win it, but they've not dominated a serious challenging team in the regular season. Considering Gilbert cleared the table for them on the other side of last year's championship bracket, do they have the offensive firepower to run the table this year on their own?
I know my predictions all involve considerations from a team from a year ago, but the reality is these three teams have the bulk of their lineups back and all have something to prove. I think it gives them an edge in the coming weeks. I'm looking forward to their efforts in the post season
Good luck to all,
The "underdog who could win it all" team North Polk - better than people think on paper, well coached by Middleton, played a tough regular season schedule and ticked off at losing to Gilbert in extra innings a year ago
The "no one should be surprised to see them win it" team: Carrol Keumper - another talented and well coached team, also driven by a Gilbert loss in the semi's, I think they'll be peaking at the right time.
"Hardest road to repeat": team: Davis County - my personal favorite to win it, but they've not dominated a serious challenging team in the regular season. Considering Gilbert cleared the table for them on the other side of last year's championship bracket, do they have the offensive firepower to run the table this year on their own?
I know my predictions all involve considerations from a team from a year ago, but the reality is these three teams have the bulk of their lineups back and all have something to prove. I think it gives them an edge in the coming weeks. I'm looking forward to their efforts in the post season
Good luck to all,
Using Bondurant Farrar as an example...
2012 season in Raccoon River Conference (same as Saydel) they were 14-14
2011 season in the Heart of Iowa Conference they were 14-14
2012 season in Raccoon River Conference (same as Saydel) they were 14-14
2011 season in the Heart of Iowa Conference they were 14-14
Seriously, do you have any idea why we're joining the HOIC?
So we can compete. Smaller schools; lower level of competition across the board.
The HOIC and Raccoon River Conference are two, entirely, different levels of competition.
Totally different classes. Literally.
So we can compete. Smaller schools; lower level of competition across the board.
The HOIC and Raccoon River Conference are two, entirely, different levels of competition.
Totally different classes. Literally.
i would not say they are that different. North Polk has beat Perry, ADM, Bondurant, Ballard, and Carlisle. and they lost to DCG by 1. Is Saydel a better team than N Polk? No. Thats the thing about baseball, the better team doesnt always come off the field with a win. North Polk outhit Saydel 6-4 i was told and one of saydels runs were unearned (N. Polk had at least 4 errors i was told) They left guys on base and didnt get hits when needed. Thats how baseball goes sometimes.
How can you say the HOIC is bad? last year they sent 2 teams to the state tournament with Gilbert finishing as the runner up. Gilberts batting stats were not flashy by any means. North Polk, Gilbert,and Roland Story have all played a pretty tough non-conference schedule and do so almost every year.
I wouldnt say NP's stats are bad. they have a .347 team average and a .422 OBP, and no, their strikeout to walk ratio is not the greatest, but once again look at the competition they have played.
How can you say the HOIC is bad? last year they sent 2 teams to the state tournament with Gilbert finishing as the runner up. Gilberts batting stats were not flashy by any means. North Polk, Gilbert,and Roland Story have all played a pretty tough non-conference schedule and do so almost every year.
I wouldnt say NP's stats are bad. they have a .347 team average and a .422 OBP, and no, their strikeout to walk ratio is not the greatest, but once again look at the competition they have played.
This thread is about predictions. I predict North Polk, because of a lack of offense, falls short of the state tournament. And historically, the HOIC is a weak baseball conference. Gilbert was a one man show the last three years. Take Goodman out of the mix; well, about a .500 team. Hadaway is no Goodman. Not even close.
This post was edited on 7/2 8:11 AM by Saydel Rules
This post was edited on 7/2 8:11 AM by Saydel Rules
A quick fact check
Hadaway is leading the state with an ERA of 0.00 in 44 innings pitched. He's only allowed 2 unearned runs with 74Ks and 13BB. (Given a choice, I'd take a pitcher like Goodman over one like Hadaway)
Over the last 7 years, the HOI has advanced 7 teams to the state tournament. North Polk 3 times, Gilbert 2 times and PCM and Bondaraunt Farrar one time each. This includes two teams a year ago. In 2008, they didn't advance a team. (The diversification in representation has to be about as good as any other 2A conference in the past 7 yrs)
Gilbert is currently 17-8 (0.680). This is after losing their number 1 pitcher for the season due to injury in game 5 of the season. (This is a respectable follow up given what they lost to graduation and injury. They have a chance to hit 20 wins given their district draw)
Edited to add my (comments)
This post was edited on 7/2 12:37 PM by gg2224
Hadaway is leading the state with an ERA of 0.00 in 44 innings pitched. He's only allowed 2 unearned runs with 74Ks and 13BB. (Given a choice, I'd take a pitcher like Goodman over one like Hadaway)
Over the last 7 years, the HOI has advanced 7 teams to the state tournament. North Polk 3 times, Gilbert 2 times and PCM and Bondaraunt Farrar one time each. This includes two teams a year ago. In 2008, they didn't advance a team. (The diversification in representation has to be about as good as any other 2A conference in the past 7 yrs)
Gilbert is currently 17-8 (0.680). This is after losing their number 1 pitcher for the season due to injury in game 5 of the season. (This is a respectable follow up given what they lost to graduation and injury. They have a chance to hit 20 wins given their district draw)
Edited to add my (comments)
This post was edited on 7/2 12:37 PM by gg2224
why is the HOIC historically weak? lets go back a little ways. since 2005 the HOIC has sent 7 teams to the state tournament. two of those teams finished as the runner up. in 2005 N Polk made it to the second round after beating Beckman 11-1, and then losing to eventual state champ Wilton. in 06 NP made it to the championship game before falling to Assumption 6-8. in 07 Bondurant (then in the HOIC) made it to state with a 16-15 record and lost first round only 3-2 to eventual state champion Cherokee. Nobody from the HOIC made it in 08. in 09 Gilbert made it and lost 1-0 to Cherokee. in 2010 PCM made it and lost 2-1 to Davis County. And last year Both NP and Gilbert made it with NP losing to Gilbert 2-1 first round and Gilbert making it to the championship game before losing to Davis County 2-0.
What about that makes the HOIC a historically weak conference? Saydel would not look any better in the HOIC than they do in the RRC. The only time we ever hear from you is when you want to try to bash the entire HOIC. nothing you ever say is backed evidence.
What about that makes the HOIC a historically weak conference? Saydel would not look any better in the HOIC than they do in the RRC. The only time we ever hear from you is when you want to try to bash the entire HOIC. nothing you ever say is backed evidence.
"Gilbert is currently 17-8 (0.680)."
Since a couple of you seem to have a lot of time on your hands, check out Gilbert's schedule. Talk about weak! (A good record isn't always what it seems to be.)
As far as recent HOIC participation in the state tournament, be glad sectionals and districts aren't seeded according to competancy. When the path to Principal Park is littered with dog crap, inevitably a few "tootsie rolls" make it through.
Since a couple of you seem to have a lot of time on your hands, check out Gilbert's schedule. Talk about weak! (A good record isn't always what it seems to be.)
As far as recent HOIC participation in the state tournament, be glad sectionals and districts aren't seeded according to competancy. When the path to Principal Park is littered with dog crap, inevitably a few "tootsie rolls" make it through.
Saydel would not look any better in the HOIC than they do in the RRC. Again, Saydel - 2 / HOI's best - 1
Lots of hate for Saydel. I think it may be due to "Saydel Rules" being moronic.
They're 17-13 with 8 straight wins.
Carlisle, Pella, Gilbert, NP, and I35 were the last 5 wins. Those are all solid teams.
Bolich has been pretty impressive and Hodges will be a solid pitcher the next few seasons.
Was Bolich in trouble or why didn't he pitch until Mid-June?
This post was edited on 7/3 12:57 PM by maxstabs13
They're 17-13 with 8 straight wins.
Carlisle, Pella, Gilbert, NP, and I35 were the last 5 wins. Those are all solid teams.
Bolich has been pretty impressive and Hodges will be a solid pitcher the next few seasons.
Was Bolich in trouble or why didn't he pitch until Mid-June?
This post was edited on 7/3 12:57 PM by maxstabs13
Probably not (going to state), but our athletic teams are looking forward to participating in the HOIC.
maxstabs, chill guy. I wasn't even referencing you. I was responding to this well thought out comment from above:
"North Polk has the best chance to get to state out of thier district and sub state. They play all teams they have beaten easily this year and the other side only has Hudson. And if you think the HOIC is a weak conference the NICL is ten times as bad."
And to echo what terrehawk said, Hudson has already lost to both West and East Marshall this year. And yeah, I know Hudson probably didn't throw an ace or whatever you want to call it (Justin Peterson, with a 4-1 record. No idea where he is in their rotation). Neither did East Marshall. EM threw a Junior that rarely pitches and doesn't even play varsity, a freshman that only plays varsity when he pitches and an 8th grader that doesn't play varsity against Hudson. The freshman and 8th grader gave up a total of 2 runs over 5 innings against Hudson (not earned runs, total runs). EM does not throw any top 3 pitchers on weekend tournaments. They are designed to get the younger pitchers varsity experience. And EM still beat Hudson.
And apparently last night WM beat Hudson 13-10.
Am I claiming Hudson won't win Districts? No I'm not. But an awful lot of people already have it a given that Hudson will win Districts. You can look at records all you want and see that Hudson has a record of 20-5 and EM is 21-11. Hudson must be better right? But if the only thing you look at are records then you aren't getting the whole picture. Great, so that means Hudson might have better #3-6 pitchers. Those pitchers aren't needed for Districts. The only teams that saw our #1 and #2 pitchers this year were conference opponents, Vinton Shellsburg, Denver and last night Aplington Parkersburg. East Marshall is 13-1 when our top 2 pitchers start and 8-10 when others start. (Thank you West Marshall for that one loss.) Here's guessing our top 2 pitchers will start from here on out until we lose.
So, I'm not claiming anything other than to say Hudson isn't the de facto winner of their District. Will they win it? They could. But I give their chances far lower than everyone else is.
"North Polk has the best chance to get to state out of thier district and sub state. They play all teams they have beaten easily this year and the other side only has Hudson. And if you think the HOIC is a weak conference the NICL is ten times as bad."
And to echo what terrehawk said, Hudson has already lost to both West and East Marshall this year. And yeah, I know Hudson probably didn't throw an ace or whatever you want to call it (Justin Peterson, with a 4-1 record. No idea where he is in their rotation). Neither did East Marshall. EM threw a Junior that rarely pitches and doesn't even play varsity, a freshman that only plays varsity when he pitches and an 8th grader that doesn't play varsity against Hudson. The freshman and 8th grader gave up a total of 2 runs over 5 innings against Hudson (not earned runs, total runs). EM does not throw any top 3 pitchers on weekend tournaments. They are designed to get the younger pitchers varsity experience. And EM still beat Hudson.
And apparently last night WM beat Hudson 13-10.
Am I claiming Hudson won't win Districts? No I'm not. But an awful lot of people already have it a given that Hudson will win Districts. You can look at records all you want and see that Hudson has a record of 20-5 and EM is 21-11. Hudson must be better right? But if the only thing you look at are records then you aren't getting the whole picture. Great, so that means Hudson might have better #3-6 pitchers. Those pitchers aren't needed for Districts. The only teams that saw our #1 and #2 pitchers this year were conference opponents, Vinton Shellsburg, Denver and last night Aplington Parkersburg. East Marshall is 13-1 when our top 2 pitchers start and 8-10 when others start. (Thank you West Marshall for that one loss.) Here's guessing our top 2 pitchers will start from here on out until we lose.
So, I'm not claiming anything other than to say Hudson isn't the de facto winner of their District. Will they win it? They could. But I give their chances far lower than everyone else is.
Nevada blanks Gilbert, 8 - 0.
Can someone confirm, I don't believe Nevada has had a winning season for nearly 30 years.
Now that they're back in the HOIC, it looks like the streak ends.
Hmmmm.
Im not talking about Gilbert this year. i asked if you thought they were not good last year, even though they made it to the championship game, or the NP teams of 06. irregardless of what you think, HOIC teams have proven that they are not weak. They have had two runner ups, one semi-finalist, and 4 other teams sent to state in the last 7 years. and none of the teams who lost first round lost by more than 2 runs
No hate to Saydel here. I've seen them play, they're a solid team with some talented players.
I happen to disagree with some of the extreme conclusions of single 2-1 Saydel victory. Looking at the NP and Saydel full body of work, especially against common opponents, I think the numbers speak for themselves.
I happen to disagree with some of the extreme conclusions of single 2-1 Saydel victory. Looking at the NP and Saydel full body of work, especially against common opponents, I think the numbers speak for themselves.
Goodman. (Remember the rhubarb on this thread about him pitching "all those innings" at state last year?)
In baseball, one dominating pitcher makes all the difference in the world when it comes to a team's success (especially in the smaller classes).
Goodman could beat the better teams by himself and was used to close out games against the marginal teams that kept games close (pitch the 6th/7th to secure a victory). He was a one man wrecking crew and Gilbert was nothing more than an above average 2A team without him.
In baseball, one dominating pitcher makes all the difference in the world when it comes to a team's success (especially in the smaller classes).
Amen. In spite of all the talent that returned, don't think Martensdale wouldn't give their left you know what to have Westphal back.
Amen. In spite of all the talent that returned, don't think Martensdale wouldn't give their left you know what to have Westphal back.
Saydel Rules has every reason to be excited about leaving the RRC and joining the HOIC. The HOIC will pure and simply be a better fit for Saydel and they should be a more competative team in the HOIC than they were in the RRC. Demographically with them being a small 3A school leaving a predominantly 3A conference and entering one which also has smaller class schools also seems to make sense.
Why do I think Saydel will be more competative in the HOIC? Simple. Right now in Baseball the RRC is ranked #5 as a conference while HOIC ranks #14. Last year it was RRC = #8 HOIC = #17.
What about the other sports one usually associates with conference play? In Basketball the RRC was ranked #13 and #15 for the last 2 years. HOIC was ranked #19 both years. Wrestling? RRC #9 and #10 - HOIC #23 and #22.
It was much of the same between the RRC and HOIC going back further than 2 years but in all honesty I think the RRC will definitely see a downturn in their strength when DCG leaves and heads east but they too are moving to a conference which will be a better fit (for just the opposite reasons of Saydel).
Is Saydel going to walk into the HOIC and be dominant? Of course not, but Saydel Rules is right about his school looking forward to joining the HOIC. They will be more competative which will bring more participation and a better level of commitment from the kids, parents, and school. It could be the starting point of raising their whole level of athletics.
For the record. At home Saydel will beat Nevada. No Thunder they won't make it to State but they have a good shot at a couple post season home games and that is something they will be excited about.
Why do I think Saydel will be more competative in the HOIC? Simple. Right now in Baseball the RRC is ranked #5 as a conference while HOIC ranks #14. Last year it was RRC = #8 HOIC = #17.
What about the other sports one usually associates with conference play? In Basketball the RRC was ranked #13 and #15 for the last 2 years. HOIC was ranked #19 both years. Wrestling? RRC #9 and #10 - HOIC #23 and #22.
It was much of the same between the RRC and HOIC going back further than 2 years but in all honesty I think the RRC will definitely see a downturn in their strength when DCG leaves and heads east but they too are moving to a conference which will be a better fit (for just the opposite reasons of Saydel).
Is Saydel going to walk into the HOIC and be dominant? Of course not, but Saydel Rules is right about his school looking forward to joining the HOIC. They will be more competative which will bring more participation and a better level of commitment from the kids, parents, and school. It could be the starting point of raising their whole level of athletics.
For the record. At home Saydel will beat Nevada. No Thunder they won't make it to State but they have a good shot at a couple post season home games and that is something they will be excited about.
An interesting factoid, Des Moines North is 2 - 23. One of their victories? Nevada.
This post was edited on 7/3 8:21 PM by Saydel Rules
Nevada - 8 / Gilbert - 0
This post was edited on 7/3 8:21 PM by Saydel Rules
Nevada - 8 / Gilbert - 0
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