Class A

[bcmoore87]

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
 A   1 Britt West Hancock    49  A  11 Arlington Starmont    10 -13.55 -23.08 -39
 A  14 Maquoketa Valley       0  A   4 Wapsie Valley         26  11.43  15.09  26
 A  21 Lake Mills             0  A   3 Saint Ansgar          33  27.59  29.04  33
 A  22 Leon Central Decatur   0  A   5 Madrid                42  19.18  24.13  42
 A  13 Logan-Magnolia        22  A   6 Akron-Westfield       16  15.71  11.17  -6
 A  12 Lynnville-Sully        8  A   9 Guthrie Center GC-AC  29   2.31   7.14  21
 A   7 Marcus MMCRU          28  A   2 Woodbury Central      35   9.64   9.60   7
 A   8 East Buchanan         38  A  16 Lisbon                 7  -2.11  -8.52 -31

Logan-Magnolia definitely surprised the model; congratulations to them.

This report does a nice job of showing how the model adjust to new data (the post-game prediction is different than the pre-game prediction). Additionally, if the actual game score is close to the pre-game prediction, there will no primary pressure to change the post-game prediction (there will be "secondary" pressure based on the results of all games played by past opponents).

 

[bcmoore87]

Schedule strength:
In regression analysis, the game margins of all games is the input (along with the home-field-advantage variable). After team strengths are discovered, a calculation is done to get the average strength of the oppenent's team strength score (adjusted for home-field advantage). This is advertised as the schedule strength.

The schedule strength can be a good measure of how well the team has been tested. If the schedule strength score is about equal to the team strength score, then the team plays teams that are both stronger and weaker. The regression score fo this team will be accurate.

If the schedule strength score is much less than the team strength score, then the team is much stronger than its competition. The accuracy of the regression score of this team will be improved when the team plays better competition (playoffs).

Additionally, I would recommend looking at the team's schedule and seeing how many games are ignored by the model (* in the M column). If a strong team has played a lot of non-competitve games, the ranking for this team will have less accuracy than a team that has played more competite games.

Edit: improved clarity

 

[Juice Boy]

My understanding of the way Mr. Moore is using regression is that basically he takes the scores of all matchups and solves for the rankings that minimize the variance between the model expectation (ie relative rank) and actual scores.

This is exactly the right idea. The job of regression is to first explain the past. Once an estimate of the past has been obtained, use those team estimates to predict the future.

Early season games have the same weight as later season games. The model does produce a prediction based on the past five games, This is displayed in the "Various" report in the prediction area. Predictions based on the past 5 games are less accurate than predictions based on the full season.

(I'm curious to see what my official post count is. Clearly I haven't posted in a while.)

Honored to see your return.

 

[bcmoore87]

Honored to see your return.

Thanks! I'm very appreciative of all of the conversations I've had on this site; I have lots a great memories.

I hope your team plays well in the playoffs.

 

[Juice Boy]

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
 A   1 Britt West Hancock    49  A  11 Arlington Starmont    10 -13.55 -23.08 -39
 A  14 Maquoketa Valley       0  A   4 Wapsie Valley         26  11.43  15.09  26
 A  21 Lake Mills             0  A   3 Saint Ansgar          33  27.59  29.04  33
 A  22 Leon Central Decatur   0  A   5 Madrid                42  19.18  24.13  42
 A  13 Logan-Magnolia        22  A   6 Akron-Westfield       16  15.71  11.17  -6
 A  12 Lynnville-Sully        8  A   9 Guthrie Center GC-AC  29   2.31   7.14  21
 A   7 Marcus MMCRU          28  A   2 Woodbury Central      35   9.64   9.60   7
 A   8 East Buchanan         38  A  16 Lisbon                 7  -2.11  -8.52 -31

Logan-Magnolia definitely surprised the model; congratulations to them.

This report does a nice job of showing how the model adjust to new data (the post-game prediction is different than the pre-game prediction). Additionally, if the actual game score is close to the pre-game prediction, there will no primary pressure to change the post-game prediction (there will be "secondary" pressure based on the results of all games played by past opponents).

The post not reconciling close to some of the actuals reinforces my thought over many weeks that some teams were greatly under-valued. There are several that have variances of multiple score margins when actual is compared to post. My interpretation several surprises to the model.

ACGC as another example where were +2 pre, moves to +7 post.

Four of the 8 games have a variance of 2 TDS or more when comparing post and actual. Have not looked at updated models and predictions for the quarters - but will be an interesting read to compare to what I Think actual might be.

Like the work and interesting conversation.

 

[bcmoore87]

The post not reconciling close to some of the actuals reinforces my thought over many weeks that some teams were greatly under-valued.

Agree, good thoughts!

 

[Juice Boy]

The post not reconciling close to some of the actuals reinforces my thought over many weeks that some teams were greatly under-valued.

Agree, good thoughts!

BC, interested as to what goes into, or better stated what is considered, in the % of likelihood calculations in the matchup/spreads of your models? Maybe that was covered in the video that I watched posted and apologize if the case.

Admire your work. Admire even more your dedication to this endeavor.

 

[bcmoore87]

% of likelihood calculations in the matchup/spreads of your models?

The model outputs a standard deviation; this is then used for %ile calculations. As of today, the standard deviation is 13.12.

Standard normal table - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

0.500 --> 0.69146
1.000 --> 0.84134
2.000 --> 0.97725

Examples:

If a team is a 0.5 standard deviation favorite (favored by 6.56 points, then the probability of winning is 69%.

If a team is a 1 standard deviation favorite (favored by 13.12 points, then the probability of winning is 84%.

If a team is a 2 standard deviation favorite (favored by 26.24 points, then the probability of winning is 97.7%.

 

[Zowwy21]

Maq Valley(MV)/Wapsie Valley (WV) game recap
Unfortunately, McShane was not 100%. He played a series or two on offense and was visibly limping. He played primarily defense through roughly the 3rd quarter. Word is he tweaked his hamstring in walkthroughs on Thursday night. Tough kid. He was trying to stay lose on the sideline by riding a stationary bike the whole game.

Some interesting stats from the game that you don't see too often.

• MV had 17 first downs. WV only had 3 first downs.
• Time of possession had to be 75% MV but not sure they got in the Red Zone.
• WV had TD drives of 2 plays (60 yds), 1 play (19 yds), 5 plays (80ish yds) and 2 plays (75 yds).
• Sauerbrei had TD runs of 61, 19, 71 and 75 yards and probably a handful of losses. All in all, 14 carries for 226 yards.
• WV ran 26 plays while MV had 79 plays.
• MV had a number of penalties including 2 personal fouls (and a number of other ones that didn't get called).
• WV blocked 2 punts.
• WV got the ball x2 inside the MV 10yd line but had a fumble and a pick so didn't score on either.

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

Results after 1st round of pickem

Gopanthers23- 14
MsideChief- 14
Zowwy21- 13
Hooper2021- 10

Results after 2nd round pickem

Gopanthers23- 21
MsIdeChief- 20
Zowwy21- 20
Hooper2021- 15
Pnation- 8 (perfect second round)

 

[Zowwy21]

I’m going with the following 4 teams to go to the dome…
Madrid vs ACGC - I think this will be a battle. I'm going with ACGC just because they are home but coin flip in my mind.

West Hancock vs Wapsie Valley - Another battle between two very similar teams. Both tough D (maybe slight edge to WV), strong run game (edge to WH - 4 different threats), pass game (equal), special teams (slight edge to WV), home field (WV). WV has a bend not break mentality, can WV stifle WHs methodical drives? WV very reliant on big plays, can WH stop them. WV has scored multiple times on def, kick returns and punt returns.

East Buchanan vs St Ansgar - Last I heard St Ansgar is still dinged up (maybe it was precautionary), and East Buch is really rolling right now.

Logan Magnolia vs Woodbury Central - If weather is really crappy, I give the edge to LM, but forecast doesn't look too bad right now.

I'm a big BCMoore supporter, but going with my gut on these as, WC is the only favorite I am going with Besides, I'm behind in the standings and looking to make a move.

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

East Buchanan (8-2) at Saint Ansgar (10-0)

Logan-Magnolia (9-1) at Woodbury Central (10-0)

West Hancock (9-1) at Wapsie Valley (9-1)

Madrid (10-0) at ACGC (10-0) (#23 gets the best of his old team)

 

[troutstamp1]

East Buchanan (8-2) at Saint Ansgar (10-0)

Logan-Magnolia (9-1) at Woodbury Central (10-0)

West Hancock (9-1) at Wapsie Valley (9-1)

Madrid (10-0) at ACGC (10-0) (#23 gets the best of his old team)

8 great teams and 4 outstanding games. Honestly I think any of these teams has a legit shot at the title and that hasn't been said in a long time. All of these teams are predominately run teams, wishbone, wing T, Powe I, then throw in Woodburry who throws it all over the field, if they get to the dome big advantage to them.
My Picks
Saint Ansger, This was my toughest pick as I think both of these teams are top 3 teams just giving the home field advantage for the difference but like someone said East Buch just seems to be on a roll right now with everyone back
Woodburry, Good weather means win for them
West Hancock, They just seem to be on another level since the SA loss early in season and making their 8th straight quarter finals game says they we be ready.
Madrid, i just think their defense will make a few more stops than ACGC will

 

[Zowwy21]

BCMoore Rankings in Week 5 ...

1​	Saint Ansgar
2​	West Hancock
3​	Woodbury Central
4​	Akron-Westfield
5​	Madrid
6​	North Linn
7​	ACGC
8​	Starmont
9​	Wapsie Valley
10​	South Central Calhoun
11​	East Buchanan
16​	Logan Magnolia

 

[MsideChief]

My Picks:

East Buchanan (8-2) at Saint Ansgar (10-0)

Logan-Magnolia (9-1) at Woodbury Central (10-0)

West Hancock (9-1) at Wapsie Valley (9-1)

Madrid (10-0) at ACGC (10-0)

 

[Iron Doc]

Agree with MsideChief.

 

[Iron Doc]

Congratulations Fearsome Eagle Beasts!

On to the Dome!

 

[76JC]

Congratulations Fearsome Eagle Beasts!

On to the Dome!

Congratulations Fearsome Eagle Beasts!

On to the Dome!

Class act team, very fundamentally sound and should be the favorite from here on out.

 

[spreadthelove]

East Buchanan proving people wrong. They are peaking at the right time. A well-coached squad.

 

[bcmoore87]

09/14 East Buchanan 0 @ Starmont 46

Did East Buchanan has some players missing for this game?

This score seems incredible (as in not credible). I did recheck gobound.com. Thoughts? (what happened?)

 

[troutstamp1]

09/14 East Buchanan 0 @ Starmont 46

Did East Buchanan has some players missing for this game?

This score seems incredible (as in not credible). I did recheck gobound.com. Thoughts? (what happened?)

East Buc has 2 loses on the year, week 1 to class 1 A top 10 Sumner Fred in Overtime and week 4 I believe to Starmont in a blow out loss. From what I heard or seen on social media is that EB had a few key kids miss that game that was played on a Thursday night including the Bowers kid who is probably their best athlete on both sides. They played in district 4 witch was brutal strength wise and played all the top teams the first 5 weeks of the regular season and with 2 early season loses they were basically forgotten in the rankings as the season went on. I saw some of their game vs St Ansger on SA you tube stream and they pretty much dominated the saints, really surprised their defense shut down the Saints running game for the most part.

 

[bcmoore87]

EB had a few key kids miss that game that was played on a Thursday night including the Bowers kid who is probably their best athlete on both sides

This adds value; thanks for sharing

 

[spreadthelove]

East Buc has 2 loses on the year, week 1 to class 1 A top 10 Sumner Fred in Overtime and week 4 I believe to Starmont in a blow out loss. From what I heard or seen on social media is that EB had a few key kids miss that game that was played on a Thursday night including the Bowers kid who is probably their best athlete on both sides. They played in district 4 witch was brutal strength wise and played all the top teams the first 5 weeks of the regular season and with 2 early season loses they were basically forgotten in the rankings as the season went on. I saw some of their game vs St Ansger on SA you tube stream and they pretty much dominated the saints, really surprised their defense shut down the Saints running game for the most part.

That a fair point. Theyve been a little up n down in the past few yrs but maybe healthy now. Dome hasnt been friendly in past but maybe this yr will be diffrent

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

Results after 2nd round pickem

Gopanthers23- 21
MsIdeChief- 20
Zowwy21- 20
Hooper2021- 15
Pnation- 8 (perfect second round)

Results after Quarterfinals pickem

Gopanthers23- 23
MsideChief- 23
Zowwy21- 22
Hooper2021- 15
Pnation- 8 (perfect second round)
Troutstamp- 3 (started picks in quarters)

 

[WHANCOCK]

Recording the semi-final podcast tonight at 7:15. Will post here when done!

 

[MsideChief]

My picks:

Britt West Hancock
East Buchanan

 

[C-Town Card]

Recording the semi-final podcast tonight at 7:15. Will post here when done!

It's funny you spammed every other post except where it belongs 🙃

 

[WHANCOCK]

It's funny you spammed every other post except where it belongs 🙃

Good call....minus calling it spamming....

 

[WHANCOCK]

Playoff Podcast:

 

[Zowwy21]

FYI Talked a bit to the Wapsie players and they all had good things to say about West Hancock players. They obviously play hard and are aggressive but they are good sports. Best of luck in the dome!!

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

My Picks

Woodbury Central
Britt

 

[Hooper2021]

Woodbury Central
West Hancock

 

[troutstamp1]

My Picks

West Hancock, on a mission since getting beat handily by St Ansgar early in the season
This game will be tighter than people think vs Madrid but I think WH defense will be the difference with their Dome experience. West Hancock runs the wing T better than anyone in Iowa and when you cant stop them they will just continue to run down hill at you and around you.

East Buc, Made the mistake last week of not picking them and they beat #1 St Ansgar on the road.
This is a tough game to pick because they are totally opposite of each other in what they want to do offensively. This is Woodbury's 3rd straight trip to the dome and East Bucs 2nd in 3 years so no advantage to either team there as far as experience in the dome. What team can get off the field defensively more often? I;m taking the Bucs just simply that I think they will play ball control and eat up a lot of time and shorten the game.

 

[Iron Doc]

Finals prediction:

WC vs. The Fearsome Eagle Beasts.

 

[Yep22]

Rewatched the WC East Buch game. Number 8 for East Buch today was a puke. Kicking guys after plays, punched one kid in the nuts from behind on the ground, after another play tried sticking his hand in the RBs throat after a play, then a play he wasn't even near tried stepping on a WC offensive players feet as he was walking back to the offensive side. Bad sport all around. Guess we know why he was kicked out of a game this year. I don't think he was "hurt" for the Starmont game.

 

[Hooper2021]

Rewatched the WC East Buch game. Number 8 for East Buch today was a puke. Kicking guys after plays, punched one kid in the nuts from behind on the ground, after another play tried sticking his hand in the RBs throat after a play, then a play he wasn't even near tried stepping on a WC offensive players feet as he was walking back to the offensive side. Bad sport all around. Guess we know why he was kicked out of a game this year. I don't think he was "hurt" for the Starmont game.

Couldn't agree more. Got sent multiple videos of his actions as I was unable to watch the game. Glad WC won for that fact alone. Let alone NWIA roots.

 

[troutstamp1]

Two great games in the Dome, any of those 4 teams could win the title but it was West Hancock and Woodburry that will get the chance. I thought West Hancock really controlled the game and I i have said they just seem to be on a mission since an early season loss. The second game was a battle of two totally different teams and a battle of 2 different halves with EB dominating the first half and WC the second half. Impressed with all 4 teams and how they play the game. I am going to take WH to beat WC just because they know exactly what WC is going to do defensively against them since they run the same offense as what EB did but run it better. I dont know if I have ever seen a team on defense cut so much as WC but that may not work vs WH because they can throw better than EB could. I'll take WH 28 - 8

 

[WHANCOCK]

State Title Game Preview Podcast with Jay Hiscocks, Kevin Wilson and BCMoore!
(DISCLAIMER: We are West Hancock homers and all picked WH to win on Thursday. This is simply for fun and not bulletin board material!)

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

Results after Quarterfinals pickem

Gopanthers23- 23
MsideChief- 23
Zowwy21- 22
Hooper2021- 15
Pnation- 8 (perfect second round)
Troutstamp- 3 (started picks in quarters)

After Semi Finals
Gopanthers23- 25
MsideChief- 24
Zowwy21- 22
Hooper2021- 17
Pnation- 8 (perfect second round)
Troutstamp- 4 (started picks in quarters)
Irondoc- 2

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

Finals pick
Britt