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Class A

Woodbury rolled North Union
STA has a close one with *checks notes* Sibley Ocheyedan
WH up 38-22 late over LGC
North But loses 17-0 to Starmont
 
IAROY said:
Woodbury rolled North Union
STA has a close one with *checks notes* Sibley Ocheyedan
WH up 38-22 late over LGC
North But loses 17-0 to Starmont
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St ansgar was without a starting linebacker, 2nd most tackles on team and one of their better running backs (same person), but sibley definitely put up a good fight. Apparently their losses were by a total of 9 points, (don't quote me on that) Definitely appeared better than their record would indicate.
 
I'll go with

Saint Ansgar vs Maq Valley
Lisbon vs East Buc

Madrid vs Central Decatur
AC/GC vs Lynnville Sully

Woodbury Central vs MMC-RU
Akron Westfield vs LoMa

Starmont vs West Hancock
Wapsie vs Lake Mills
 
St. Ansgar vs Lake Mills
Wapsie Valley vs West Hancock

Woodbury Central vs MMCRU
Akron Westfield vs Logan-Magnolia

Lisbon vs Maq Valley
Starmont vs East Buch

Madrid vs Central Dec
ACGC vs Lynnville-Sully
 
srfhsdfhrfh said:
St. Ansgar vs Lake Mills
Wapsie Valley vs West Hancock

Woodbury Central vs MMCRU
Akron Westfield vs Logan-Magnolia

Lisbon vs Maq Valley
Starmont vs East Buch

Madrid vs Central Dec
ACGC vs Lynnville-Sully
Click to expand...
No way the state puts the 1,3,5 ranked teams in the same pod. Be no point to the rankings if they did
 
srfhsdfhrfh said:
If I'm the state I'm not giving a district runner-up a pod. Geographically this makes sense.
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If your referring to WH your not giving them a pod they will have to travel to a number 1 as all 1 seeds won last night. The question is if the state considers them a top 4 overall seed based on the rankings what two 1 seeds will pod together with them. I could honestly see them go east and play either starmont or wapsie Valley and still be out of the Stansger pod.
 
Hawk_Fan said:
My guess is the following will be #1 in the following Pods.

NW - West Hancock
NE - St Ansgar
SE - Madrid
SW - Woodbury Central
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WH cant be a 1 as all the #1 seeds won. They may be the best team in whatever pod they are in but wont be a numner one they just have to play a number one.
 
WHANCOCK said:
Recording at 4:30 today! BcMoore is joining us!
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Hd Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
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I believe st ansgar is fairly banged up. Had one of their linebackers out Friday who i beleive has the 2nd most tackles. He is also one of their more used running backs. A few others were banged up during the game. We will see if they suit up friday.
 
Gamefly said:
St ansgar was without a starting linebacker, 2nd most tackles on team and one of their better running backs (same person), but sibley definitely put up a good fight. Apparently their losses were by a total of 9 points, (don't quote me on that) Definitely appeared better than their record would indicate.
Click to expand...
I am quoting on it though ;) MMCRU won 42-0 @ Sibley a few weeks ago.
 
POD A

Lake Mills (7-2) at Saint Ansgar (9-0)-Saint Ansgar

East Buchanan (7-2) at Lisbon (9-0)-East Buchanan


POD B


MMCRU (7-2) at Woodbury Central (9-0)-Woodbury Central


Logan-Magnolia (8-1) vs. Akron-Westfield (8-1), at LeMars-LoMa


POD C


West Hancock (8-1) at Starmont (8-1)-West Hancock


Maquoketa Valley (7-2) at Wapsie Valley (8-1)-Wapsie Valley


POD D


Central Decatur (6-3) at Madrid (9-0)-Madrid

Lynnville-Sully (8-1) at ACGC (9-0)-AC/GC

Pod by Pod
A
I wonder if East Buc is firing on all cylinders, if they are I might take them to make it to the dome, they were my preseason #1 I think

B
I think it is Woodbury Central's pod to lose, I do wonder if weather could slow them down more then other teams with their passing game

C
I think the most balanced pod, West Hanock has been much better since they sort of got woken up with the loss to Saint, Wapsie is very fundamentally strong, and Maq Valley has "that guy" but they lost to Starmont I think it will be West Hanock vs Wapsie to go to the dome, which was a great game last year

D
I really like what AC/GC has done this year, now I will also say that Madrid looked impressive in the first round as well, and even though L-S is without their stud I don't think you can count them out.
 
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My Picks (Taking some of the road dawgs)

POD A

Lake Mills (7-2) at Saint Ansgar (9-0)

East Buchanan (7-2) at Lisbon (9-0)


POD B


MMCRU (7-2) at Woodbury Central (9-0)


Logan-Magnolia (8-1) vs. Akron-Westfield (8-1)


POD C


West Hancock (8-1) at Starmont (8-1)


Maquoketa Valley (7-2) at Wapsie Valley (8-1)


POD D


Central Decatur (6-3) at Madrid (9-0)

Lynnville-Sully (8-1) at ACGC (9-0)
 
My Picks

POD A

Lake Mills (7-2) at Saint Ansgar (9-0)

East Buchanan (7-2) at Lisbon (9-0)

POD B

MMCRU (7-2) at Woodbury Central (9-0)

Logan-Magnolia (8-1) vs. Akron-Westfield (8-1), at LeMars

POD C

West Hancock (8-1) at Starmont (8-1)

Maquoketa Valley (7-2) at Wapsie Valley (8-1)

POD D

Central Decatur (6-3) at Madrid (9-0)

Lynnville-Sully (8-1) at ACGC (9-0)
 
My Picks
POD A
Lake Mills (7-2) at Saint Ansgar (9-0) (I heard that Saint Ansgar is pretty banged up, may be closer, but still think they pull it off.)
East Buchanan (7-2) at Lisbon (9-0)

POD B
MMCRU (7-2) at Woodbury Central (9-0)
Logan-Magnolia (8-1) vs. Akron-Westfield (8-1), at LeMars

POD C
West Hancock (8-1) at Starmont (8-1)
Maquoketa Valley (7-2) at Wapsie Valley (8-1)

POD D
Central Decatur (6-3) at Madrid (9-0)
Lynnville-Sully (8-1) at ACGC (9-0)
 
My Picks:

Lake Mills (7-2) at Saint Ansgar (9-0)

East Buchanan (7-2) at Lisbon (9-0)

POD B

MMCRU (7-2) at Woodbury Central (9-0)

Logan-Magnolia (8-1) vs. Akron-Westfield (8-1), at LeMars

POD C

West Hancock (8-1) at Starmont (8-1)

Maquoketa Valley (7-2) at Wapsie Valley (8-1)

POD D

Central Decatur (6-3) at Madrid (9-0)

Lynnville-Sully (8-1) at ACGC (9-0)
 
troutstamp1 said:
So after a few days to see, whets your take on Starmont and your Pod?
Click to expand...
I'm the last one you want giving expertise on these things. The other three guys are better than that. I'm predicting WH victories but that's because I'm a WH homer and supporter! Should and could be some good games!
 
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WHANCOCK said:
Playoff Episode #2 with BCMoore! DISCLAIMER: We are West Hancock homers. We will always pick WH to win. Not bulletin board material! BCMoore did a great job explaining his program and formulas with us

View embedded media
Click to expand...
There is a strength of schedule rating given, but it did not seem that SOS was used as a discriminating factor in the rankings but only the regression model. One could surmise SOS is a major data point when trying to prognosticate pecking order by rank, no? Or did I misinterpret something?
 
Juice Boy said:
There is a strength of schedule rating given, but it did not seem that SOS was used as a discriminating factor in the rankings but only the regression model. One could surmise SOS is a major data point when trying to prognosticate pecking order by rank, no? Or did I misinterpret something?
Click to expand...
In the regression it inherently takes into account the strength of schedule. Close games with higher ranked teams or quality wins over high ranked teams results in a higher rank.
 
Zowwy21 said:
In the regression it inherently takes into account the strength of schedule. Close games with higher ranked teams or quality wins over high ranked teams results in a higher rank.
Click to expand...
Okay. Do not remember them stating that strength of schedule was actually in the regression used. What I thought I heard was scores were what was used in the regression and blowouts were taken out so as not to skew. Regression was "score based". If I missed comments about SOS being represented in the rankings as well then I just missed it.
 
Juice Boy said:
Okay. Do not remember them stating that strength of schedule was actually in the regression used. What I thought I heard was scores were what was used in the regression and blowouts were taken out so as not to skew. Regression was "score based". If I missed comments about SOS being represented in the rankings as well then I just missed it.
Click to expand...
You are correct in that it was not stated. My understanding of the way Mr. Moore is using regression is that basically he takes the scores of all matchups and solves for the rankings that minimize the variance between the model expectation (ie relative rank) and actual scores. For instance, one would expect victories between similarly ranked teams to be relatively narrow and superior ranked teams to be blowouts. The "strength of schedule" then becomes a comparison of the ranks of all the respective opponents - so it is an output of the model rather than an input to the model. I would be curious though to know whether the model gives more weight to later season games versus early season games. For instance, a +3 TD finish over a 15th ranked team last week I would think would be more impactful than the same win in week 2 because teams improve throughout the season or deal with injury. Also, I am surprised that he "throws" out the large spread games as data points as opposed to "capping" them. Most teams are going to start putting in the subs once they have a 28 - 35 point lead or maybe the last drive or two with a 14 - 21 point lead. Its still a meaningful input just probably loses meaning whether it is a 60-point spread or 35. Obviously, weather is always an impact in reality, however, not sure how a model would systematically use this information, particularly given the only inputs he is gathering is score, not offensive style or anything like that.
 
Zowwy21 said:
You are correct in that it was not stated. My understanding of the way Mr. Moore is using regression is that basically he takes the scores of all matchups and solves for the rankings that minimize the variance between the model expectation (ie relative rank) and actual scores. For instance, one would expect victories between similarly ranked teams to be relatively narrow and superior ranked teams to be blowouts. The "strength of schedule" then becomes a comparison of the ranks of all the respective opponents - so it is an output of the model rather than an input to the model. I would be curious though to know whether the model gives more weight to later season games versus early season games. For instance, a +3 TD finish over a 15th ranked team last week I would think would be more impactful than the same win in week 2 because teams improve throughout the season or deal with injury. Also, I am surprised that he "throws" out the large spread games as data points as opposed to "capping" them. Most teams are going to start putting in the subs once they have a 28 - 35 point lead or maybe the last drive or two with a 14 - 21 point lead. Its still a meaningful input just probably loses meaning whether it is a 60-point spread or 35. Obviously, weather is always an impact in reality, however, not sure how a model would systematically use this information, particularly given the only inputs he is gathering is score, not offensive style or anything like that.
Click to expand...
And/or also void of direct and/or indirect crossover of common opponents.
 
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So the BC Moore video has me now looking at his website. Looking at his current Class A rankings and the W/L records as you go down the list, it appears his models think very highly about districts 6 and 7. As I poked around his website he has district rankings. District 7 highest ranked. District 6 next. District 1 3rd. Other A districts down the list a bit.

All three of those districts ranked ahead of a 2A5 and three 1A districts (2,6,7). 2A6 just above 1A7. What this says to me is Class A is potentially wide open as to who can not only get to the dome but make noise once they get there.

IHSAA has Saint Ansgar #1 (D2). Woodbury Central #2 (D8). West Hancock #3 (D2). Madrid #4 (D6). Wapsie Valley #5 (D3), Lisbon #6 (D5), ACGC #7 (D7), Starmont #8 (D4), L-S #9 (D6), and Akron Westfield #10 (D1).

According to BCM distirct rankings IHSAA:

  • #1 Saint Ansgar is in the 5th ranked A district.
  • #2 WC is in the 4th ranked A district.
  • #3 West Hancock is in the 5th ranked A district.
  • #4 Madrid is in the 2nd ranked A district.
  • #5 Wapsie Valley in the 6th ranked A district.
  • #6 Lisbon is in the lowest A district.
  • #7 ACGC is in the highest ranked A district.
  • #8 Starmont is in the 7th ranked A district.
  • #9 L-S is in the 2nd ranked A district.
  • #10 Akron - Westfield is in the 3rd ranked district.
In a quick fly over of the above, the teams that have a good shot at over-achieving based on IHSAA rankings as you progress down through the top 10 yet in highly ranked districts would include Madrid, ACGC, L-S, and Akron. ALL THE OTHER teams beyond those four are in the bottom half of district rankings.

Also worth a mention is that there is no District 1 team in the IHSAA top 10 yet BCM has D1 as the 3rd toughest district (top half).

Teams that are in the top 3 BCM ranked districts but not in IHSAA top 10 still alive is only MMCRU. Appears Pod D is doing the rest of the class a favor due to it pitting the teams against each other that are in the best two districts in Class A according to BCM.

A very unscientific hypothecation according to all that and looking at both the IHSAA rankings and BCM rankings by district could indicate Madrid as the favorite to win it all when compared to most of the IHSAA top 10.

Lisbon is in Pod A but in the lowest ranked district. Saint Ansgar and Britt are in the same district but protected from each other in pods. Lake Mills probably loses to Saint Ansgar. Lisbon and East Buchanon are in weak districts. Make sense Saint Ansgar wins Pod A.

Pod B will be between MMCRU and Akron-Westfield and both are in strong BCM D1. Other Pods w/ highly ranked teams in the IHSAA rankings should be concerned about both of these teams even though only AW is ranked and barely being so by IHSAA at #10 no less. Sleepers.

Pod C will be won by West Hancock yet this pod has three other IHSAA top 10 ranking teams in it. Issue is none of those three are in very highly ranked districts. That includes WH who is in BCM 5th ranked district as well.

Pod D as mentioned pits everyone that are in the two top rated BCM districts. Central Decatur does not beat Madrid. L-S and ACGC is probably a toss up but give the edge to ACGC if I use the thread of data I am using I am using through all of this. That being strength of district. ACGC is in toughest BCM ranked district. L-S finished second in D6 (BCM #2) so a toss up. Unfortunately only one gets out of this pod. If Madrid they deserve their ranking and also should be concern of the other pod winners who come out of lower ranked BCM districts.

ACGC could be a spoiler and even though ranked well below other pod winners yet they come out of the strongest BCM ranked district and are 8-0. Beating not only all their district opponents but also beating all of the D6 opponents they had on their regular season schedule. Mount Ayr twice. Earlham once.

Case could be made state champions come out of Pod D or Pod B. Only one of those teams is anywhere near ranked to what the IHSAA thinks are the best.

All this can be torn apart I know. All I am doing it comparing and contrasting with a slant toward considering BMC rankings of district. There still is lack of cross-over if you go team by team. My thinking is if you back up to district rankings there may be more reliable data due to more cross-over possibilities to weed out some unknowns and giving district standing more weight in prognosticating. But when it all comes out in the wash - who the heck knows!
 
Last edited:
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Wow. Maquoketa Valley is one of the dirtiest teams I have witnessed playing in at least the last decade. Shoving kids helmets into the ground taking cheep shots in the piles. Sad, but coaches seemed to support the behavior 😞
 
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Man MMCRU got absolutely robbed tonight. Had a clear touchdown to tie the game up as time expired that was called incomplete. They also recovered a CLEAR AS DAY Fumble when the game was 14-7. WC ended up scoring a TD to make it 21-7 a few plays later. I know officiating is tough to come by these days, but you still hate to see officials decide the outcome of a playoff game like that. Tip of the cap to both teams on an absolute battle tonight.
 
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Husker1047 said:
Man MMCRU got absolutely robbed tonight. Had a clear touchdown to tie the game up as time expired that was called incomplete. They also recovered a CLEAR AS DAY Fumble when the game was 14-7. WC ended up scoring a TD to make it 21-7 a few plays later. I know officiating is tough to come by these days, but you still hate to see officials decide the outcome of a playoff game like that. Tip of the cap to both teams on an absolute battle tonight.
Click to expand...
You need to scroll down a little bit on the fumble link to see the video.
 
My understanding of the way Mr. Moore is using regression is that basically he takes the scores of all matchups and solves for the rankings that minimize the variance between the model expectation (ie relative rank) and actual scores.

This is exactly the right idea. The job of regression is to first explain the past. Once an estimate of the past has been obtained, use those team estimates to predict the future.

Early season games have the same weight as later season games. The model does produce a prediction based on the past five games, This is displayed in the "Various" report in the prediction area. Predictions based on the past 5 games are less accurate than predictions based on the full season.

(I'm curious to see what my official post count is. Clearly I haven't posted in a while.)
 
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