Thoughts About RPI (Check My Math)

[Reasoned]

The state does the schedule. The school just sends in a list of opponents they prefer to play. The schools have no say technically who they will get. The state does the final say on who will be your non district games

Well, not to belabor the point, technically the state has the final say in the schedules yes but the reason for the post is to highlight that teams opponents aren't just randomly selected out of a hat for their schedule...most of the time.

 

[dtk913]

A lot of them will be this year because most teams are looking to play teams they can beat and with no incentive to play up it is hard for decent teams to get anyone to agree to play.

There won't be many lists submitted this year that matchup, so there will be lots of teams playing games against teams who were not on the list they submitted.

 

[Iabeastmode]

If we look at the records from last year, Class 1A had four teams at 9-0, five teams at 8-1, and 7 teams at 7-2. Since your own winning percentage is by far the biggest component of RPI (yes, your opponents' winning percentage also counts for the same 37.5%, but with that spread among nine opponents your own record is still the biggest factor), I think if this year's rules were in effect last year, those would be your 16 playoff qualifiers. I haven't done the math at all, but it seems to me you'd have to have an absolutely ridiculous difference in strength of schedule for your RPI to lift a 7-2 team over an 8-1, or a 6-3 over a 7-2. An 8-1 record is a winning percentage of .889, while 7-2 is .778 and 6-3 is .667. That number is almost 40% of your RPI, so right away that's a significant difference to surmount. It appears to me RPI is only really going to sort out things between identical records.

If you finish 9-0, you're in, because that means you won your district. If you finish 8-1, odds are you'll be in - if you didn't win your district, there probably aren't enough other 8-1 finishers to lock you out of the 16 spots. It's the 7-2 finishers where we're probably going to get into RPI, and again, it's the non-district opponents (both yours and those of the rest of your district) that's going to be the difference. Just for grins, let's say Regina wins the district (even at 7-2, perhaps with losses to Solon and Xavier, but that won't matter because they were 5-0 in-district). And let's say DNH loses a close one to Regina for their only district loss, but drops another game along the way to also be 7-2. That puts DNH in RPI competition with all the other 1A non-district-winning schools at 7-2.

Let's use Iabeastmode's thoughts of the rest of the district finishing 5-4, 2-7, 1-8, and 0-9. If that is indeed the case, that means those four teams went 2-14 in non-district games, which really stinks for DNH's RPI. If, as you say, DNH's own non-district opponents aren't that great, their chances of beating out another 7-2 team for a playoff spot would be pretty low. Their RPI would also give them a worse seeding for the playoffs if they did make it, so tougher opponents, more road trips, etc.

Again, if either Regina or DNH finishes second in the district at 8-1 with the only loss to the other, well ... it's going to be pretty tough for an 8-1 team to miss the playoffs. It's possible, of course (multiple ties for district titles would cut down on the wild card possibilities), but unlikely. If you win your own games, the importance of your non-district schedule and your district's non-district schedule lessens.

That's what it looks like to me, anyway.

Let’s say the game vs DNH and Regina go the other way, DNH wins by a field goal. Regina has losses to Xavier and Solon, finishes 6-3. How terrible would it be to leave Regina out for 2 3a losses and a loss to the possible state champion because of RPI!?!?!?!

 

[dtk913]

Will Regina be playing Solon and Xavier again? I have heard at least one if not both games are no longer... hope it is false.

Pretty tough to justify playing up two classes against really good programs with the new Playoff/RPI system. Regina would have to decide if playing a tough ND schedule is more important than a playoff run. If they loose those two games and stumble against a good Dike-New Hartford team they would be in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs.

 

[screwloose]

In your scenario of Regina going 6-3/4-1 and finishing second. If they had CR Xavier and Solon on their schedule, both are likely to finish 8-1 or 9-0. As long as Regina's other two opponent's weren't complete dogs, meaning they combined for at least 8-10 overall, their OWP would likely be high enough to snag them an at-large at 6-3. They would probably finish in the high .590 area, which would be better than some 7-2s playing weak OOCs.

 

[PNation]

Let's say that Dike and AP both finish 2nd in their respective districts at 7-2, Dike beats AP in their non-district but AP finishes 16th in the RPI and Dike 17th, I believe AP gets the bid correct? Can you imagine the outrage?

I'm just playing devil's advocate

 

[cidhawkeye]

In your scenario of Regina going 6-3/4-1 and finishing second. If they had CR Xavier and Solon on their schedule, both are likely to finish 8-1 or 9-0. As long as Regina's other two opponent's weren't complete dogs, meaning they combined for at least 8-10 overall, their OWP would likely be high enough to snag them an at-large at 6-3. They would probably finish in the high .590 area, which would be better than some 7-2s playing weak OOCs.

Maybe the Boone nozzles will pull some genius scheduling like they did 7-8 years ago when they scheduled Regina down 2 classes against BGM.

 

[smallcenter]

In your scenario of Regina going 6-3/4-1 and finishing second. If they had CR Xavier and Solon on their schedule, both are likely to finish 8-1 or 9-0. As long as Regina's other two opponent's weren't complete dogs, meaning they combined for at least 8-10 overall, their OWP would likely be high enough to snag them an at-large at 6-3. They would probably finish in the high .590 area, which would be better than some 7-2s playing weak OOCs.

That's only assuming there aren't two districts with three way ties that snag 4 or of the at-large bids...

 

[screwloose]

True

 

[cidhawkeye]

Unintended results, who knew the Boone nozzles could mess this up, good work...

 

[Rose bowl or bust]

Do you think with only 1-3 ND games in 8 player will it pretty much come down to 1st & 2nd in each district?

Glancing at last years result there was a 2nd place tie with 5-4 records, and 1 - 7 win team that didn't and several 6 so I guess it's possible 2nd won't be an automatic.

I have the feeling that the amount of possible variation in the OWP & OOWP will only mater for the teams in/out that are 6-3.

Just to be fair, I think this is a horrible move. Not a fan of using some subjective and undetermined plan to determine the playoffs. Not that records are subjective, but not all 7-2 teams are the same. I have no idea what we're going to have to do to make the playoffs at the start of the year. Last year, we knew we had to go 7-0 or 6-1 in the district and we're in. Obviously, 7-0 still works, but not sure 6-1 will get you in.

8 Player could get very interesting with this new rule. District 1 last year was something like 12-2 in their OOD schedule. I believe they were the only district in 8 man with more than a 1 or 2 game advantage out of district as a group. They finished 9-0, 8-1, 6-2, 5-3, 5-4. Would the 6-2 (GT/RA) and 5-3 (HLP) made the playoffs over other district runner ups? I'm guessing GT/RA would have, and HLP would probably had a good chance. Would the missing game help or hurt them? Depends on who they find to replace the missing game I guess...but that can always be tricky.

The biggest problem in 8 man is the swing in team strength. While we can pretty much guarantee there are about 5-6 teams that area always going to be good (F-M, Bosco, NF, HLV, Audobon last 2 years, Midland), there are teams that have wild swings. Remsen St. Mary's has went 3-6, 6-3, 11-1 last 3 years, and they're going to be way down after graduating something like 14 seniors this year (unless they can bring in another D1 recruit ) Twin Cedars went from 11-1 to 4-5.

What happens when a team in 8 man forfeits, as we've seen over the last couple of years? Not sure how they're going to handle that. Last year, we were down a game and didn't want to short change our kids. They come out to play games. We ended up taking a 2+ hour road trip to play a team that was 0-8...next year we'll have to tell our kids they don't get to play a game because we don't want to hurt our RPI.

Too much crap to figure out...and it's not equal for everyone.

 

[cjm3260]

Especially since they have no say in their schedules.

 

[roosterk]

If they had done 6-7 team districts it would have been 1000% better, but they didn't. If there would be more ND games then it would have worked itself out. What sucks is say the team my kids played for and in the bottom 20% of 8 player, they are weak, and due to numbers and changes making the BEDS differential even larger, the difference between top and bottom is even larger. What happens is more of the low number team go away. IF THEY WOULD HAVE DONE WHAT THEY SAID THEY WERE GOING TO THOSE LOW NUMBER TEAMS COULD HAVE PLAYED MORE LOW NUMBER TEAMS IN NONDISTRICT GAMES, but they didn't follow up on their words. I'm guessing 3-4 teams won't finish varsity next season and be gone for good. The difference to kids and supporters between 0-1 competitive games, they don't have to be wins, and 3-4 competitive/fun games is huge.

FR playing against SR half the season they can deal with 7 of 9 games 50% they move on to other sports.

 

[smallcenter]

Just to be fair, I think this is a horrible move. Not a fan of using some subjective and undetermined plan to determine the playoffs. Not that records are subjective, but not all 7-2 teams are the same. I have no idea what we're going to have to do to make the playoffs at the start of the year. Last year, we knew we had to go 7-0 or 6-1 in the district and we're in. Obviously, 7-0 still works, but not sure 6-1 will get you in.

8 Player could get very interesting with this new rule. District 1 last year was something like 12-2 in their OOD schedule. I believe they were the only district in 8 man with more than a 1 or 2 game advantage out of district as a group. They finished 9-0, 8-1, 6-2, 5-3, 5-4. Would the 6-2 (GT/RA) and 5-3 (HLP) made the playoffs over other district runner ups? I'm guessing GT/RA would have, and HLP would probably had a good chance. Would the missing game help or hurt them? Depends on who they find to replace the missing game I guess...but that can always be tricky.

The biggest problem in 8 man is the swing in team strength. While we can pretty much guarantee there are about 5-6 teams that area always going to be good (F-M, Bosco, NF, HLV, Audobon last 2 years, Midland), there are teams that have wild swings. Remsen St. Mary's has went 3-6, 6-3, 11-1 last 3 years, and they're going to be way down after graduating something like 14 seniors this year (unless they can bring in another D1 recruit ) Twin Cedars went from 11-1 to 4-5.

What happens when a team in 8 man forfeits, as we've seen over the last couple of years? Not sure how they're going to handle that. Last year, we were down a game and didn't want to short change our kids. They come out to play games. We ended up taking a 2+ hour road trip to play a team that was 0-8...next year we'll have to tell our kids they don't get to play a game because we don't want to hurt our RPI.

Too much crap to figure out...and it's not equal for everyone.

RPI is based on winning percentage, not overall record. Therefore, a forfeit "shouldn't" affect the RPI very much.

 

[Rose bowl or bust]

RPI is based on winning percentage, not overall record. Therefore, a forfeit "shouldn't" affect the RPI very much.

Yeah...in theory. Does it count as a win? So we get stuck with a nondistrict game against a team that is 0-9 from low numbers and then forfeiting our?

Also, for purposes of winning percentage, 8-1 is a little better than 7-1. Could be the difference.

Again, with the state making the schedule, they essentially have the ability to control who makes the playoffs. IF they match up top teams vs other top teams for OOD games, those teams have a big advantage with this formula.

 

[screwloose]

Which is it? 8-1 or 7-1?

Yes, the percentage is a little better for the 8-1. But if a team were 7-1 but didn't face an 0-9, their SoS would be significantly better.

The 8-1 team would have an RPI of roughly .6458, all opponents equalling .500.
The 7-1 team would have an RPI of roughly .6614, minus the 0-9 team.

You can't have it both ways. Regardless, a one loss team will have to have played about the worst possible schedule to finish with an RPI under .6000. And a team with a .6000 RPI has about a 99% chance of making the at-large field, barring multiple district ties. Even then, it's almost a slam dunk.

You're paranoid.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Forfeits count as wins. Once the season starts, your winning percentage is going to be based on the number of games you have scheduled. If a team folds up during the season and forfeits to you, you get credit for a win (obviously that team's WP is going to be crappy, so you don't get help there, but a win is a win).

The only way you don't get 9 games credited to your WP is if a school decides they're not fielding a team before the season starts. Their opponents are free to find other games (yeah, good luck with that), but that's the only way you'd have a 7-1 record or anything like that.

Forfeits are wins. If a team on your schedule starts the season, you're getting credit for that game whether or not they're still fielding a team when that Friday comes. Nobody has to worry about points anymore, so that doesn't matter. It's still a W. This is right out of the state's information about the new playoff system and RPI.

 

[cidhawkeye]

How is a weather cancellation handled?

 

[Herdcyclones]

obviously not going to happen over the next 2 years, but I'd like to see some benefit, like baseball, for playing up. Maybe some crappy 3A gets the benefit of playing a 1A and improving the odds for a win. And the 1A gets a shot at 3 points. It's a way to get competitive games. Currently, what advantage do you get for playing a good team in your own class (other than maybe they will have a good record for the remainder of the season)

 

[KidSilverhair]

How is a weather cancellation handled?

Well, I guess if you cancel for weather and don't make it up, that would be a "lost" game and you'd end up with fewer than 9 games in your winning percentage. Seems to me that in most cases, teams try to make up games called/stopped for weather, typically on the next day. I do realize that can sometimes be impractical, and there is the chance of a game being lost.

However, seems to me there's a greater incentive to make up postponed non-district games under the RPI system. In 2015, the Dowling-Xavier game in Cedar Rapids was delayed for a couple of hours due to thunderstorms, and then cancelled. They never made up the game, because what was the point? Non-district games didn't have any impact at all on playoff qualifying. Now that winning percentage of all games is part of the system, if a similar situation occurs both ADs are likely to find a way to get the game played.

But we were specifically talking about forfeits and how they impact RPI.

 

[smallcenter]

Forfeits count as wins. Once the season starts, your winning percentage is going to be based on the number of games you have scheduled. If a team folds up during the season and forfeits to you, you get credit for a win (obviously that team's WP is going to be crappy, so you don't get help there, but a win is a win).

The only way you don't get 9 games credited to your WP is if a school decides they're not fielding a team before the season starts. Their opponents are free to find other games (yeah, good luck with that), but that's the only way you'd have a 7-1 record or anything like that.

Forfeits are wins. If a team on your schedule starts the season, you're getting credit for that game whether or not they're still fielding a team when that Friday comes. Nobody has to worry about points anymore, so that doesn't matter. It's still a W. This is right out of the state's information about the new playoff system and RPI.

I stand corrected. I didn't read the entire press release either.

 

[WSH0455]

Does anyone know if there is a website, computer program or an excel file that is already made up to keep track of the RPI by yourself? I have searched and searched and found nothing helpful. I would think that there is a program where you enter the schedules and update the scores or wins and then it will figure out the RPI for you. Just wondering if anyone else has found anything. Thanks in advance!

 

[Lenmaster]

IMO Quick Stats or the IHAA web site should be the place for that. All the necessary data is already there to automatically calculate results.

 

[Iabeastmode]

Anybody run the RPI numbers on anything yet? With Regina possibly playing Xavier, Anamosa, Pella Christian, and Williamsburg if they come out 2-2 then lose to DNH is it possible they are out of the playoffs???? Wouldn’t that be a great way to start this new playoff system?

 

[PNation]

In that scenario I would guess that they would lose to Xavier and Williamsburg. More then likely both of those teams will go 9-0 which would help. Pella Christian will be solid and win their district, however they play a murder's row non-district which would hurt their record, but help their SOS which would help Regina, Anamosa would be the game that would hurt them the most, probably finishing with a 5-4 or worse record and that is with a weak SOS. So if Regina would do this they could be in trouble.

On the flip side DNH has to play a good Denver team, AP which is always a tough rivalry game, North Butler which will be a win but won't help the SOS, and Union which will not be easy.

So both of these teams who personally I think are the top 2 teams in 1A, and I think everyone would say are both top 5 teams could be in trouble if they don't win the district. Especially if the rest of the district struggles in non district games which I think will happen.