So, the thread on SE Iowa 1A got me thinking more who'd making it to the dome.
So, I used BC Moore for what he's good at, crunching the stats
I pulled the top 16 - Say what you want about his rankings, I'm betting the top 4 will come out of his top 16
Then I pulled out the 8 with the best strength of schedule. If you're going to succeed against the best in your class, you better have played somebody. Interestingly, making a down selection based on SOS, cuts out Underwood (at 47th) and Beckman (at 45th) It leaves you with teams ranked 1st (Western Christian) through 14th (MFL) All pretty strong schedules. SK at 15th and AC/GC 17th miss the cut, but make you wonder about statistical significance. Western Christian, despite their scheduleThen it's a question of which is more important, strength of Offense, of strength of Defense. So, I averaged those, maybe balance wins championships, is an indicator of athleticism (especially in small school, high school, it says something about the quality of your athletes on both sides of the ball.) Van Meter easily comes to the top with a 3 (4th Offense, 2nd defense) - The next 3 are, DNH (10.5), PC (13) and MFL (14). (Regina comes in next with a 14.5, Columbus is within statistical consideration with a 16, West Sioux with a 16.5)
So, obviously there are some issues with quarterfinal matchups and the whole East/West Selection. So, I'm not predicting those "top 4" It gives us too many east teams and we need another west. I'm not sure I'm any closer to making actual predictions, but it does put some things into perspective about "what about x-team" who's maybe played nobody and done only marginally against their opponents.....
The most interesting question it makes for me, is,"Will Underwood defy the stats?" They don't have to dominate the state, just be good enough to be one of the last 2 from the west. There's also the statistical problem that the West never looks as good in those kinds of statistical analyses, yet they always bring it strong at the Dome.
So, with all of that milling around in the back of my head, I'm going to ignore some of it and actually make my predictions - Van Meter and Underwood from the west (I think Underwood's defensive production of only allowing 9.4/game is enough to give them that 2nd in the west spot) and Regina and W'loo Columbus in the East. I was going to go with DNH, I just think they don't quite have it all together and they'll drop one, maybe before the quarterfinals.
So, I used BC Moore for what he's good at, crunching the stats
I pulled the top 16 - Say what you want about his rankings, I'm betting the top 4 will come out of his top 16
Then I pulled out the 8 with the best strength of schedule. If you're going to succeed against the best in your class, you better have played somebody. Interestingly, making a down selection based on SOS, cuts out Underwood (at 47th) and Beckman (at 45th) It leaves you with teams ranked 1st (Western Christian) through 14th (MFL) All pretty strong schedules. SK at 15th and AC/GC 17th miss the cut, but make you wonder about statistical significance. Western Christian, despite their scheduleThen it's a question of which is more important, strength of Offense, of strength of Defense. So, I averaged those, maybe balance wins championships, is an indicator of athleticism (especially in small school, high school, it says something about the quality of your athletes on both sides of the ball.) Van Meter easily comes to the top with a 3 (4th Offense, 2nd defense) - The next 3 are, DNH (10.5), PC (13) and MFL (14). (Regina comes in next with a 14.5, Columbus is within statistical consideration with a 16, West Sioux with a 16.5)
So, obviously there are some issues with quarterfinal matchups and the whole East/West Selection. So, I'm not predicting those "top 4" It gives us too many east teams and we need another west. I'm not sure I'm any closer to making actual predictions, but it does put some things into perspective about "what about x-team" who's maybe played nobody and done only marginally against their opponents.....
The most interesting question it makes for me, is,"Will Underwood defy the stats?" They don't have to dominate the state, just be good enough to be one of the last 2 from the west. There's also the statistical problem that the West never looks as good in those kinds of statistical analyses, yet they always bring it strong at the Dome.
So, with all of that milling around in the back of my head, I'm going to ignore some of it and actually make my predictions - Van Meter and Underwood from the west (I think Underwood's defensive production of only allowing 9.4/game is enough to give them that 2nd in the west spot) and Regina and W'loo Columbus in the East. I was going to go with DNH, I just think they don't quite have it all together and they'll drop one, maybe before the quarterfinals.