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State Predictions

sportsfan011

Freshman
May 25, 2011
133
0
16
Anyone have predictions for state? I'll give mine for Class 2A...

QUARTERFINALS:
Xavier over Clear Creek-Amana
Wahlert over Glenwood
Grinnell over Spirit Lake
Norwalk over ADM

SEMIFINALS:
Xavier over Wahlert
Grinnell over Norwalk

CHAMPIONSHIP:
Xavier over Grinnell
 
QUARTERFINALS:
Xavier over Clear Creek-Amana
Wahlert over Glenwood
Spirit Lake over Grinnell
Norwalk over ADM

SEMIFINALS:
Xavier over Wahlert
Norwalk over Grinnell

CHAMPIONSHIP:
Xavier over Norwalk

You can throw Xavier into 3A this year and they make it as far as the final round...losing to Valley.
 
2A

QUARTERFINALS
Xavier over CCA
Glenwood over Wahlert
Grinnell over Spirit Lake
Norwalk and ADM - Toss Up.


SEMIS
Xavier over Glenwood
Grinell and ??? - Toss Up.

FINALS
Xavier over ???

Not trying to be a whimp, I just see the bottom half of the bracket being very competetive. Grinnell beat ADM 2-1, Norwalk beat Grinnell 2-1, and clear back in a preseason scrimage ADM beat Norwalk 1-0. These three teams have essentially done a 1 goal 3 way split.

I can see any of those 3 teams winning the bottom of the bracket but agree Xavier has to be the favorite to win it all.
 
3-A Predictions:

Valley over Kennedy
Washington over Bett
Johnston over SCW
Iowa City West over Dowling

Valley over Washington
IA City West over Johnston

Valley over IA City West

2-A Predictions:

Xavier over Clear Creek-Amana
Wahlert over Glenwood
Grinnell over Okoboji
Norwalk over ADM

Xavier over Wahlert
Norwalk over Grinnell

Xavier over Norwalk

1-A Predictions:

Albia over MOC-Floyd Valley
Solon over St. Albert
Waterloo Columbus over Holy Trinity
Regina over Nevada

Solon over Albia
Regina over Columbus

Regina over Solon
 
Can anyone explain how seeding works for state? Especially in Class 1A...I don't understand how Albia got the 1 seed when there are teams like Regina and Solon with better records that will have to face tougher 1st round opponents. Did the IHSAA screw up again or am I missing something?
 
State seeds are based on a points system to take into account strength of schedule. You get 3 points for a win over a 3A team, 2 points for a win vs. 2A team, and 1 point for a win vs. 1A teams. Add all those points together and divide by the total number of games played. Highest average point total is highest seed. If there is a tie, it goest to straight winning percentage, then after that alphabetical.
 
dglade: Using your formula - I cannot get the seedings to come out as the Association has them. Grinnell ~ 2nd seed ~ would only have a 1.473% compared to #3 seed ADM (which I figured at 1.6) and #4 seed Glenwood (which I figured at 1.611. Where did I figure wrong?
 
Thank you dglade, that makes sense now.

Vladimer,
Here are the numbers I came up with:
1. Xavier (2.4)
2. Grinnell (1.588)
3. ADM (1.5)
4. Glenwood (1.43)
5. Wahlert (1.06)
6. Norwalk (1.13)
7. Spirit Lake (1.125)
8. Clear Creek-Amana (1.0)
So the issue I have is with Wahlert, Norwalk, and Spirit Lake.

Also, I wonder why the IHSAA didn't use this system for the substate pairings. It doesn't take long to configure and it makes more sense than what they did.
This post was edited on 5/31 11:10 AM by sportsfan011
 
Not sure Wahlert has all their scores current on QuickStats, may be missing a game
 
Grinnell is the school I'm having trouble with --- What 3A schools did they win? I have 1 3A win; 10 2A wins; 5 1A wins = 28 divided by their 19 games = 1.473.

Am I missing something? Or help me with Glenwood's:
3 -3A wins = 9; 7 - 2A wins = 14; 4 - 1A wins = 4 Total 27 divided by 18 games = 1.5 Walk me thru it?
This post was edited on 5/31 11:43 AM by VLADIMER
This post was edited on 5/31 11:45 AM by VLADIMER
 
Vladmier,

Well I didn't add in the substate games so that could be why our numbers our different. If you add in Grinnell's substate games they would have 2 3A wins, 10 2A wins, and 4 1A wins which is 30 points for an average of 1.57, higher than that of Glenwood even if you count substate games.
This post was edited on 5/31 4:41 PM by sportsfan011
 
Here's the trick. I got out my magnifying glass and looked at Boone's fine print. If you look you will see it at the bottom.

"Do not include any games played on days NOT ending in y."
 
QUARTERFINALS:
Xavier over Clear Creek-Amana
Glenwood over Wahlert
Grinnell over Spirit Lake
ADM over Norwalk

SEMIFINALS:
Xavier over Glenwood
ADM over Grinnell

CHAMPIONSHIP:
Xavier over ADM
 
Re: 3-a state bracket

I'd have to question how Bett, who was ranked 12th got a 5 seed? Very bizarre.
 
Re: 3-a state bracket

Now I've got it --- Thanks. I need to get all the facts before starting with the #'s I had Boone as a 2A
 
I'll go ahead and give predictions for 3A and 1A

CLASS 3A
QUARTERFINALS
Valley over Kennedy
IC West over CR Wash
Johnston over SC West
Dowling over Bettendorf

SEMIFINALS
Valley over IC West
Dowling over Johnston

CHAMPIONSHIP
Valley over Dowling

CLASS 1A
QUARTERFINALS
Albia over MOC-FV
Solon over St. Albert
Columbus over Holy Trinity
Regina over Nevada

SEMIFINALS
Solon over Albia
Regina over Columbus

CHAMPIONSHIP
Solon over Regina
 
So far I'm 4/4 in 2A Predictions.

What happened during the Xavier game. Did Xavier have control the entire time?

Grinnell/Spirit Lake was crazy. Unlucky deflection in double OT.
 
8 of the top 11 teams are private...they sure do like that football. ;)

Must be something with private schools and soccer - they are always strong in it.

1Regina, Iowa City
2Columbus Catholic, Waterloo
3St. Albert, Council Bluffs
4Solon
5Holy Trinity Catholic, Fort Madison
6Beckman, Dyersville
7Nevada
8Notre Dame/West Burlington
9Assumption, Davenport
10Albia
11Iowa Mennonite School, Kalona
 
Not quite 6/6. If you look at your picks while you did pick Spirit Lake over Grinnell in the quarters, in the semis you picked Norwalk over Grinnell...oops.

Congrat to the Warriors. Very unlikley ending yesterday. Trailing 1-0 deep into the match Norwalk gets 2 goals from a player who hadn't scored yet this season. (Relatively long identical outside shots, I can understand the keeper being off guard for the first goal but was really surprised to see the second one in the net.) Great timing to get on the scoreboard!! Good luck against Xavier, they have looked more beatable this tourney than everyone thought.
 
Did the referee really just make that call in the 2A Championship match? I mean, I was there and all, but I wasn't sure if I was caught in a bad dream or if someone was playing a really late April Fool's joke.

Wow that was a mess of a call...and ultimately the deciding call for the match.

All 3 classes won by private Catholic schools. Lovely.
 
Wow what a late season run by Dowling. Avenged 2 losses in 2 days including beating Valley (who they lost to 5-2 in the regular season) 4-1 in the championship
 
I won't comment on whether the correct call was made against the Norwalk keeper, but the call is consistant with changes I've seen this season. This year I saw more calls made against keepers and for the most part, they were long overdue coming. The keepers have been getting the benefit of the doubt for too long when it comes to contact. This has included the old trick of protecting yourself by raising the knee and then exposing your cleats to any opponent as well as keepers flat out interferring with opponents when they are beaten.

Glad to see the officials are starting to clean this up.

Warrior Soccer, I don't know where you were going stating that private Catholic schools won all 3 titles. Do private schools have some advantages? Yes. Do some public schools enjoy some of the similar advantages the privates have? Certainly, and Norwalk could be the poster child for being a public school who enjoys the same advantages as a private school.

When it comes down to it the two biggest advantages a private enjoys are: 1. They are normally located in (or near) a major metro area and are able to land many kids whose parents want to keep them out of the larger city schools. 2. The private schools are under no obligation to accept troubled or special needs youth. Those kids often are not able to contribute to the athletic or other extra ciricular activities of the school yet their attendance causes an increase in the school enrollment causing them to potentially play in a higher class.

Norwalk definitely benefits from no. 1 and largely isn't impacted greatly by no. 2.

In the not too far past Norwalk was a small 2A school which really struggled with all athletics (you're not alone, the same can be said of Waukee and many other communities). As business boomed in nearby Des Moines (and now West Des Moines) many young professionals decided they did not want their kids attending Des Moines public school nor bloated Valley, so they first settled in Waukee as that filled up, worked their way around to Norwalk. (Next will be Carlisle who will become the next Norwalk if/when Norwalk hits 4A). In a relative short period of years Waukee went from 2A to 4A while Norwalk went from 2A to a larger 3A knocking on the 4A door. As stated earlier, many of the new residents are professionals with above average incomes (much like the parents of the private schools) and share the same socio/economic advantages as the parents of the private schools. One example of this would be the financial ability for early and continued sports developement.

How does no. 2 come into play? Many ways. First they have fewer problem kids. Their families are more stable and the school environment is also a whole different world than the schools those parents were trying to avoid. Often these school are experiencing enough growth they are able to set the academic bar higher than their city counterparts and can effectively keep much of the trouble students out (or open enrolling elsewhere where they feel they fit in). When you are experiencing too much growth as a problem it isn't hard to imagine ways to "push" those kids away thus ridding your school of the problem kids while helping to ease the growing pains (that's a true win/win for these schools). Special needs students? Oh yes they still have them and they do inflate their enrollment number, but in Norwalk's case of being one of the largest 3A schools, their impact in minimal if any.

Warrior Soccer, yes private schools do have some advantages....but so do schools like your Norwalk Warriors.

P.S. Solon, much of this can be said of you too.
This post was edited on 6/6 5:54 AM by ghost80
 
Totally understand the private vs. public arguments. I've been around the block a few times. Wasn't trying to point any fingers or start any bickering over the subject. It always seems to be light up the threads in 3A hoops when Heelan wins, again and again.

One thing I do know about Norwalk, which has been the case since the very beginning, is all of our athletes are home grown and we are damn proud to be able to say that. I couldn't name one athlete in the history of the soccer program that has transferred in or who hasn't attended the district since kindergarten. The benefits of being close to a major metro could be apparent but Norwalk has had a 100% clampdown on open enrollments for the last 8 years or so. They wont let anyone in unless they move here and that is the way it has been for a very long time. Couldn't name one athlete in many of our successful programs that has moved in to the district.

Could certainly name a few that have left for Dowling though...
 
Warrior,

I'll agree Norwalk is developing players and not relying on kids transferring in. Norwalk's growth truly has come from middle class couples choosing to settle down and make Norwalk their home to start AND raise their family.

There is too much transferring going on and you have picked a name which repeatedly comes up. The thing I love is how when everyone decides they must suddenly send their kid to Dowling they either: 1. suddenly find religion and use that as their reason or 2. talk up how their child is a legacy since they went there and act like there is no possible place else where their kid can go and get a decent education. Some make believe that if their kid doesn't go to Dowling that could be the event which triggers the whole Myan 2012 thing. (That's how they can justify having their freshman kid commute from Newton to WDM everyday).

The transfers are by no means limited to the privates. Open enrollment or not there is still a lot of this going on in public schools and some of the publics are the worst offenders in the state.
This post was edited on 6/6 7:55 PM by ghost80
 
Originally posted by \/\/arriorSoccer:
Totally understand the private vs. public arguments. I've been around the block a few times. Wasn't trying to point any fingers or start any bickering over the subject. It always seems to be light up the threads in 3A hoops when Heelan wins, again and again.

One thing I do know about Norwalk, which has been the case since the very beginning, is all of our athletes are home grown and we are damn proud to be able to say that. I couldn't name one athlete in the history of the soccer program that has transferred in or who hasn't attended the district since kindergarten. The benefits of being close to a major metro could be apparent but Norwalk has had a 100% clampdown on open enrollments for the last 8 years or so. They wont let anyone in unless they move here and that is the way it has been for a very long time. Couldn't name one athlete in many of our successful programs that has moved in to the district.

Could certainly name a few that have left for Dowling though...

Nice backhanded slam on parochial schools. More jealousy....'cuz they dominate in girl's and boy' soccer.

Is CR Xavier accepting 'transfers' --rude in your eyes??

It's the only Catholic HS in the county--SO IT'S GOING TO ATTRACT STUDENTS ALL OVER THE COUNTY.

Many of the CR Xavier students are legacies--one or both parents attended CR Regis or CR LaSalle. So they weren't 'recruited'

Many families sacrifice greatly to give their kids a Catholic education. Xavier kids --many come from humble backgrounds

CR Xavier families who are home owners pay high property taxes in the CR/MArion area---which subsidizes public school system. So they're double-dipped when they pay tuition for a private education.

Why are all of these public high schools allowing Catholic kids to play on their soccer teams? Are they 'recruiting' Catholics away from Xavier?

CR Xavier won another state title. Deal with it.

p.s. If any school 'recruits', it's Iowa CIty West wrestling
 
BB. Don't whine about being "double dipped" on the taxes. If you have helped to pay for your kids education at a public school yet decide to send them to a private school that is your problem. Sounds like the education you received was lacking in common sense. Turn down something you paid for, shell out more money, and then complain about it. How do you think you are any different than the guy who has no kids yet still pays his taxes and thus helped support the schools?

Sore subject whenever deductablity of private tuition comes up. In the jurisdictions where private tuition is deductable that is where you see a true subsidization going on.
 
Why are all of these public high schools allowing Catholic kids to play on their soccer teams?

Are they 'recruiting' Catholics away from Xavier, Dowling, and Regina, etc.?

same premise. Same concept. Why are these public schools conspiring in keeping Catholics from attending a Catholic school?
 
Norwalk had a net gain of 101 students from open enrollment, 25th most in the state. A surprise that none of them play soccer or athletics.
 
Norwalk doesn't allow open enrollment
And to the point of public schools keeping Catholics from playing for Catholic schools, how exactly are they preventing anything? Pretty sure all those families have the option to play.
The point is, in smaller classes, a team from Cedar Rapids, the second largest city in the state, has an advantage over smaller towns, same goes for Iowa city, Dubuque, Council Bluffs, etc. Xavier is a 4A school playing 2A soccer because sharing agreements for other schools bump them down.
 
Where did you get those open enrollment statistics?

A large majority of Norwalk's open enrollments in the past were from DM Lincoln and other inner city schools...kids that couldn't get through those system there, many were dropouts, many were single parents...none were athletes.

And open enrollment has been closed off for a very long time in Norwalk. You move here, you pay our taxes, you get to go to school here...just like everyone else in this town.
 
Better tell the state then because as of Oct. 2010 they have Norwalk with 41 open enrollments out and 142 open enrollments in. Fairly large sample size to say they are all single parents from Lincoln. The data is on the Iowa Education website under certified enrollment. There are some interesting numbers like Norwalks in there. I enjoy the debate on how these poor public schools have to compete with all of these rich private schools with all the advantages. As they say facts are facts and sometimes they do ruin a good story.
 
try to open enroll at Norwalk right now...can't do it. Facts are facts, not sure what those numbers reflect, but they don't change the fact that you can't open enroll now. Norwalk enforces a strict policy currently on no open enrollments.
 
Interesting...when cidhawkeye made his statement about Norwalk having a 100 student open enrollment gain he was quickly made to "put up or shut up" about his source. This he did.

Quid quo pro Norwalkians. First it was stated that "Norwalk open enrollment has been on lock down for the past 8 years". When 2010 state records show that not to be true the story changes to "Try to open enroll right now. Norwalk enforces a strict policy currently on no open enrollments".

What is your evidence? Even if you produce some form of a district policy statement, how do you know that administration is "strictly enforcing it"?

(Gotta be careful when you challenge someone. You should be prepared for the same).
 
Perhaps students who open enroll due to physical address changes outside of the district are figured into each years data as an open enrollment gain. Students/families that are "grandfathered in" might be in those statistics as well. Please link, I am curious about this and would like to look into it further to see where these numbers are populated from.

Been to several school board meetings where the question of open enrollment is always answered with a "no."

I can't submit any numerical data so I bite my tongue on this regard. But please do provide a link.
 
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