Predictions for Next Year

[PNation]

I figured that with less then a month until practice starts I would make some predictions about the upcoming season. There are a lot of variables that could effect these and are just for discussion.

District 1

1. SBL

2. Spencer

3. Heelan

4. Denison Schleswig

5. Storm Lake

6. LeMars

The other 5 teams in this district get closer to SBL but I think it is still their district to lose, they return enough key pieces to make me confident in this pick, after that I think that the other teams in the district all return enough to have successful season and again give the district a great RPI but I don’t see anyone dethroning SBL, the one team I could see taking a step back is Heelan, but I think in year two of having Jansen back in charge you will see a step forward to keep them in the playoffs.



District 2

1. DCG

2. Carroll

3. Webster City

4. Boone

5. Humboldt

6. Perry

This district was not good at all last year, in all honesty there probably wasn’t a team that deserved playoff spot, luckily Carroll was able to separate itself and not causes a 3 way tie and steal 2 undeserving spots. This year I don’t see a ton of improvement, that is why I am taking DCG they were extremely young last year and I think with the coaching staff they have they will take a big step forward and take claim to the title, after that a big ole mess of a district.



District 3

1. Decorah

2. Waverly Shell Rock

3. Independence

4. West Delaware

5. Charles City

6. Waterloo East

This is another district that I truly don’t know where to go. Decorah won the district last year and while they lost a lot they are a program where you wait your turn so I see them reloading as they have done so many times before. Waverly lost most of their skilled players but do return a group up front that could lead them to the title but the Velky kid did so much for them last year I don’t know how they replace him. Indee has the best player in the district with the Schmitt kid and I think they have enough around him to challenge the big dogs of the district but I don’t know if they can get over the hump, West Delaware was disappointing last year with injuries and I know they have talent coming so they could easily win. Charles City and Waterloo East I don’t think challenge for a district title but I know that Charles City had a successful JV and freshman team and Waterloo East returns a talented QB and many kids that played last year. This district could go a bunch of different ways.



District 4

1. Western Dubuque

2. Xavier

3. Marion

4. Maquoketa

5. CPU

6. Wahlert

You could be seeing the top 2 teams in this district meeting late in playoffs again, I give Western Dubuque a slight edge, Xavier will still be very good, but to me Quinn Schulte was a special player who will be tough to replace and Western Dubuque returns quite a few of their skilled positions and I think they can do enough up front to beat Xavier. Marion Is the logical 3rd place team, Maquoketa returns more then CPU and Wahlert will be rebuilding with a new coaching staff.



District 5

1. North Scott

2. Clear Creek Amana

3. Assumption

4. Liberty

5. Central DeWItt

6. Clinton

To me North Scott is by far the best program in this district, they do have some holes to fill but I think with the tradition they have and being a bigger school you will find them at the top of this district again. CCA had some young talent, if they can replace the key seniors they lost you will see them back in the playoffs. Assumption is always there and will have a good defense, but a few too many questions on the offense to move them higher for me. I think you see Liberty take a step forward but they are just not there yet. Central DeWitt I think is moving in the right direction but too many quality teams above them and Clinton just can’t quite compete in the district.



District 6

1. Solon

2. Washington

3. Mount Pleasant

4. Fairfield

5. Fort Madison

6. Keokuk

Solon is the easy choice to win this district 3rd year starting qb who is the coaches kid and just the overall tradition the have won’t allow anyone in this district to touch them. Washington probably has the most pieces to challenge them but I don’t think they are an true challenge to Solon. The other 4 SE Iowa teams are all kind of in the same place team-wise replacing a lot but I just think Mount Pleasant is in a better place as a program.



District 7

1. Pella

2. Oskaloosa

3. Grinnell

4. Newton

5. Knoxville

6. South Tama

Pella reloads better then about any other team playing 3A football, I think you see them take the crown back from Osky who I still think is a playoff team but have some questions to answer and I like the Pella program answering questions better. Grinnell and Newton are close, I think Grinnell was a bit younger last year and I think they made a good hire last year. Knoxville is in a better place then South Tama who may have been the worst team in 3A last year and I don’t see any improvement.



District 8

1. Carlisle

2. Norwalk

3. Boundurant Farrar

4. Ballard

5. North Polk

6. Gilbert

Kind of a disappointing district last year, and I can’t say I see a true favorite this year either. I will go with Carlisle to win the district as I think that they were rather young last year but they are by no means a run away favorite. Norwalk has a very strong program right now so I will put them 2nd. BF returns skilled players but I think they have questions up front then Ballard, North Polk and Gibert have some pieces but I don’t see them as true challengers. Overall kind of a mess of a district.



District 9

1. Lewis Central

2. Harlan

3. ADM

4. Creston

5. Glenwood

6. Winterset

Kind of an interesting district to pick, Lewis Central obviously loses a huge piece in Duggan but I think their defense will be what wins the district for them. Harlan has some holes to fill but I think they are the program to do it. ADM was sort of a revived program last year but I could almost see a 2nd year step back that doesn’t let them contend with the 2 teams above them. Creston returns a ton, Glenwood is a quality team in a tough district and Winterset will struggle in this extremely good district.



Playoff Teams



District Champs

1. SBL

2. DCG

3. Decorah

4. Western Dubuque

5. North Scott

6. Solon

7. Pella

8. Carlisle

9. Lewis Central

At Large (difficult to truly predict the RPI)

1. Spencer

2. Heelan

3. Waverly Shell Rock

4. Xavier

5. CCA

6. Osky

7. Harlan



Dome Teams



Western Dubuque

Xavier

Lewis Central

Pella



Championship

Western Dubuque over Xavier



To me there aren’t 4 teams that jump out as being sure dome teams, and it also depends a lot on what the pairings are.

 

[makelovenotwar]

PNation:
Nice comments, and while I am going to offer my opinion, I do so only to spark conversation. Also, I will only comment on Divisions where I have seen more than 1/2 the teams play either live or (sadly) on tape when I am board at work.

In District 3: I am betting West Delaware wins the division. I tend to take
WSR over Decorah as well. WD was an odd team last year. Both injuries but also not their style of play. They tend to run over people with size. They did not run over people last year. Side bet: Waterloo East beats one of the top 3 teams in the conference. Seems like they always have a game where they look really, really good. Then next week? Not so much.

District 4: I bet on West Dubuque winning the conference. Numbers and size will win in the end. Marion is the true outlier here as their record the last 2 years has not reflected that team. Sometimes said teams don't know "how to win or how to lose". Marion doesn't yet know how to win. When they do, watch out. District 4 is AGAIN the strongest District in 3A. Boone really screwed the weaker teams in this District.

District 5: I agree, North Scott (yet another 4A team acting as a 3A....we've got to do something) is the power. I take Assumption over CCA and Central Dewitt over Liberty.

 

[ronsss]

last year, harlan,s thorn was lewis central and duggan, and their one receiver, simons. that 2 combination were a handful for everyone they played last yr. lucky for every one this year, they are both gone. i do believe if duggan was not there last year, harlan would have been in that last game they played, only a couple of plays killed them. ....but lewis central was good last yr, not doubt about it..even in the xiaver game, 2 plays killed them.....or it might have been different game

harlan was a very senor dominated team last year, and will be this year too. they have only 3 players returning on offense and defense. it will be interesting to see just how good they will be, and the qb is a unknown.
3a is looking to be dominated by the same teams every year, and those that wish they on top. xiaver, western dubuque, north scott, solon, pella , heelan , sbl ( the new one), harlan, lewis central( new kid on block) ,sometimes western delaware, deocorah. these are the teams that seem to be able to go all the way in any given year...couple of others i forgot their names. i wish north scott , lewis central and western dubuque would go back to 4a?????will they

i dont know much about north scott or western dubuque, but what i saw from those teams last year. ., they could be top 5 teams evey year

 

[KidSilverhair]

As someone who's watched Xavier for a long time, I agree Western Dubuque has to be the favorite in D-4. The Bobcats return a ton of starters. Xavier? Just three - one offensive lineman and two linebackers. Now, yes, the Saints have excellent coaching and typically reload every year, but they're having the same issues with participation as everybody else (their varsity roster has shrunk by almost 30% in the past five years) and they didn't have particularly strong sophomore or freshman seasons last year. I think Xavier makes the playoffs, but reaching the Dome will be a challenge for them this year. In my opinion.

I honestly don't have a sense of who's coming back on other teams in the state, so I can't speak to the other districts. I gotta think West Delaware is going to bounce back this season; Pella is like Xavier now with their strong coaching staff and tendency to reload (and they gave Xavier the game of their lives last year); Decorah is always steady, but I think they lose a lot of starters on offense, anyway; Solon will be a contender, as usual. That's about all I got, at this point.


As an aside, it's the second year of this re-classification of 42 teams in 4A and 54 in 3A. I think the time is past to complain about North Scott or Western Dubuque not belonging in 3A. Their enrollment places them between 43rd and 54th, that means they're 3A, it's that simple. It just seems whiny to say, "Uhhhh, they used to be 4A, they should still be in that class, why are they playing in my class?" Classifications change, my brother. Until the state comes up with a different way of defining classes, that's the way it is. It's like complaining that Northwest Missouri State doesn't belong in NCAA Division II because they're too good - they play by the rules of D-II, their scholarship/funding numbers qualify for D-II, that's where they are.

And as far as "Waterloo East ... 4A team worthy." You do know they're winless as a 3A team, right? And they've won a total of 2 games in the past 6 seasons? Their enrollment isn't big enough for 4A, so they're 3A.

 

[ronsss]

it seems loppsidded in some classes....look at 4a, waukee and valley over 2000 kids, over double the size of many teams in 4a,.....but 3a allmost the same.....but i quess thats football in iowa, not like arizona where i live...in arizona seems a bit more fair, more classifications.

this is the new regulation for arzona high school football...i read it, and DO NOT UNDERSTAND IT????

he Arizona Interscholastic Association’s Legislative Council recently passed a new reclassification model for football. The model will use the average weighted maxpreps power rating to determine the conference placement of a football team. The previous three seasons of a team will be used to calculate the power rating. The new model will begin during the 2020-21 school year. According to the new bylaw, a team can't move up or down more than one conference. And instead of reclassifying football teams every two years, football teams will be reclassified after each season under the new model.

Starting next season, eight teams will be pulled from the best of the big-school conferences to play in the first Open Division for the Arizona high school football playoffs. It will be in the middle of the two-year scheduling block, but, based on criteria such as strength of schedule, at the end of the 2019 regular season, there will be eight teams chosen for the Open Division while each of the big-school conferences (6A, 5A, 4A) will still play a 16-team playoff. The Open Division tournament champion will be considered the state champion to help cultivate a culture in which schools strive to be part of the Open Division playoffs, AIA Executive Director David Hines said. Teams would still play in their respective 6A, 5A and 4A conferences during the regular season, before the best eight move onto the Open Division. The eight teams will pulled out of the best from 6A, 5A and 4A through a computer rankings system. About 10-15 teams would be posted as part of the Open Division by the AIA each week starting Week 5.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Here’s what that sounds like to me - Arizona is going to use a three-year rolling average of weighted Maxpreps power rankings to set their classes. And they’ll re-class every year, although no school can move more than one class from year to year.

In addition, at the end of the regular season they’ll pull the top 8 teams (out of all classes) to play a three-round playoff for the Open Division “true” state championship. All the other teams not pulled into the Open Division will run through the playoffs in their classes as normal.

The reclassification is similar to relegation, except using Maxpreps rankings instead of a pure won-loss record. Interesting, but I’m lukewarm to the idea of using a rankings system from a privately owned website run by CBS Broadcasting ...

The playoff thing would be weird, but perhaps I could get used to it. In Iowa terms, in a past season you might have an Open Division of Dowling, Valley, Bettendorf, Cedar Falls, Xavier, Pella, Spirit Lake, and Regina (just as an example). Those 8 teams would play off for the Open Division championship, while the playoffs in 4A/3A/2A/1A would go on as normal ... just without those eight.

(Oops .. I didn’t read that right. The Arizona Open Division is only from their “big school” classes, which are 6A/5A/4A. I’m guessing anything similar to that in Iowa would just be 4A and 3A. Although there’s nothing stopping a state from including all their classes in a potential Open Division, it would be a bit creepy to have Valley (with a BEDS of over 2200) in the same playoff division as Spirit Lake (296) or Regina (169).)

 

[KidSilverhair]

Just for grins, here’s last year’s top RPIs, 4A through A:

1. Sergeant Bluff-Luton, .7214 (3A)
2. PCM, .7080 (2A)
3. Hudson, .6972 (A)
4. Ankeny Centennial, .6955 (4A)
5. Lewis Central, .6932 (3A)
6. Xavier, .6917 (3A)
7. Algona Garrigan, .6864 (A)
8. South Central Calhoun, .6852 (1A)

If you were just going to use 4A-2A, your Open Division would have looked like this:

1. Sergeant Bluff-Luton
2. PCM
3. Ankeny Centennial
4. Lewis Central
5. Xavier
6. Solon, .6835 (3A)
7. Cedar Falls, .6830 (4A)
8. North Scott, .6825 (3A)

That’s actually be a pretty fun bracket:

North Scott at SBL

Xavier at Lewis Central​

————-

Solon at Ankeny Centennial

Cedar Falls at PCM
​

Plus Dowling still gets to repeat as 4A champs because they didn’t qualify for the Open Division! If you didn’t want to include 2A in Open Division consideration, you lose PCM, move everybody up, and Iowa City West (4A) has the 8 seed, giving you this bracket:

Iowa City West at SBL

Solon at Xavier​

—————

Cedar Falls at Lewis Central

North Scott at Ankeny Centennial​

 

[ronsss]

Here’s what that sounds like to me - Arizona is going to use a three-year rolling average of weighted Maxpreps power rankings to set their classes. And they’ll re-class every year, although no school can move more than one class from year to year.

In addition, at the end of the regular season they’ll pull the top 8 teams (out of all classes) to play a three-round playoff for the Open Division “true” state championship. All the other teams not pulled into the Open Division will run through the playoffs in their classes as normal.

The reclassification is similar to relegation, except using Maxpreps rankings instead of a pure won-loss record. Interesting, but I’m lukewarm to the idea of using a rankings system from a privately owned website run by CBS Broadcasting ...

The playoff thing would be weird, but perhaps I could get used to it. In Iowa terms, in a past season you might have an Open Division of Dowling, Valley, Bettendorf, Cedar Falls, Xavier, Pella, Spirit Lake, and Regina (just as an example). Those 8 teams would play off for the Open Division championship, while the playoffs in 4A/3A/2A/1A would go on as normal ... just without those eight.

(Oops .. I didn’t read that right. The Arizona Open Division is only from their “big school” classes, which are 6A/5A/4A. I’m guessing anything similar to that in Iowa would just be 4A and 3A. Although there’s nothing stopping a state from including all their classes in a potential Open Division, it would be a bit creepy to have Valley (with a BEDS of over 2200) in the same playoff division as Spirit Lake (296) or Regina (169).)

i sort of like that idea of pulling 8 teams out of the top 3 divisions, there are a lot of schools in phoenix the size of valley and bigger...4a schools in arizona go up to 1600 kids, and 5a and 6a bigger....so pulling from each divison is about the best one can get for true champion i quess;l...i did not know maxpreps was that respected??? i would like it better if they had a coaches poll in ariozna,, and let them pull the 8 teams....//thanks for clearing that up for me...

 

[paednoch23]

Grinnell returns 16 starters this year. All 16 will be Juniors. They only have 3 Seniors on this years team. None of the Seniors saw much playing time last year. The incoming Junior Class had never lost a Game Prior to last year. But they were all playing Varisty as Sophomores. I think your prediction is spot on . Next year I would put Grinnell in the Driver's seat. New Coach in second season came from Coaching in Oklahoma and Arkansas. Sea Change in the Grinnell Culture.

 

[wolverine55]

i sort of like that idea of pulling 8 teams out of the top 3 divisions, there are a lot of schools in phoenix the size of valley and bigger...4a schools in arizona go up to 1600 kids, and 5a and 6a bigger....so pulling from each divison is about the best one can get for true champion i quess;l...i did not know maxpreps was that respected??? i would like it better if they had a coaches poll in ariozna,, and let them pull the 8 teams....//thanks for clearing that up for me...

Maxpreps can be unreliable because not all schools enter data...but I believe conversely that some states require it so it's basically their version of quikstats. I would assume Arizona must be one of these states.

 

[fmclonefan]

Grinnell has a ways to go to be in the driver’s seat. No doubt they will improve, but defensively they were not good last year. Newton rushed for over 500 yards on them. Grinnell has always been a very strong program until the last few years, so I would expect that to happen again.

Maybe all the lumps those sophomores took last year will help them get to the promised land next year, time will tell. I would think they need to have success this year though to springboard them next year.

 

[fmclonefan]

Not sure I would be a fan of that playoff system for Iowa. Would stink to be the best school in 2A, qualify for the final 8 teams and have to play a mega large 4A school and get thumped when you had a great chance to run the table in the 2A’s. So, some other school wins the 2A crown, but didn’t get to play that 2A school that qualified for the “elite” bracket.

I dunno. Maybe it would grow on me, but just doesn’t sit right.

 

[paednoch23]

I mean next year. I also mean drivers seat for their district. Pella is the obstacle for that. Defense will be better. But they have some fireworks potential on offens . Grinnell should be 7-2 this year. Losing to oskaloosa and pella. I dont see any other losses. Favorable schedule.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Maxpreps can be unreliable because not all schools enter data...but I believe conversely that some states require it so it's basically their version of quikstats. I would assume Arizona must be one of these states.

If it’s a website for collecting/calculating statistics, like Quikstats, that’s one thing. If the website is using some proprietary formula to then develop “power rankings” that a state athletic association uses to draw their classes, that’s an entirely different filet o’ fish.

(I don’t know how Maxpreps comes up with their power rankings and haven’t looked ... just seems iffy to me to let a separate, private website designed to drive traffic for profit be the one that sets up your high school classifications.)

 

[KidSilverhair]

Not sure I would be a fan of that playoff system for Iowa. Would stink to be the best school in 2A, qualify for the final 8 teams and have to play a mega large 4A school and get thumped when you had a great chance to run the table in the 2A’s. So, some other school wins the 2A crown, but didn’t get to play that 2A school that qualified for the “elite” bracket.

I dunno. Maybe it would grow on me, but just doesn’t sit right.

I get this, too. I’m not sure it makes sense to include 2A in this hypothetical Open Division in Iowa. I mean, the biggest enrollment gap by far is just within 4A itself, not between any of the other classes.

Arizona is trying to set it up so the Open Division will be perceived as a more prestigious level than any of the classes, kind of an “honor to be nominated” kind of thing. So that a hypothetical 2A team chosen for the “special 8” would think of themselves as finishing ‘better” than the 2A champion, even if they got destroyed by Valley in the opening round.

We know that’s not how anyone would look at it at the moment, but it might eventually develop that way. Anyhoo, it’s all off-season speculation and make-believe for now.

 

[ronsss]

Grinnell has a ways to go to be in the driver’s seat. No doubt they will improve, but defensively they were not good last year. Newton rushed for over 500 yards on them. Grinnell has always been a very strong program until the last few years, so I would expect that to happen again.

Maybe all the lumps those sophomores took last year will help them get to the promised land next year, time will tell. I would think they need to have success this year though to springboard them next year.

I can remember when grinnell was a powehouse in 3a, what happen to them????

 

[PNation]

They had a couple of classes that didn’t have much talent and made a terrible hire for head coach after Dunne retired. My guess is that they will be back towards the top of 3A in the coming years.

 

[ronsss]

i had thoughts that grinnell hired a average coach, usually what happens....anyone know who will be harlan,s.qb this year, and is he anygood???????

i see harlan return their 2 top rushers, that were sophs last yr...though last yrs team was dominate passing team, with allmost 3000 yds passing

 

[paednoch23]

i had thoughts that grinnell hired a average coach, usually what happens....anyone know who will be harlan,s.qb this year, and is he anygood??????

The above info on Grinnell was spot on. Fortunately the bad hire was only there for a few years. Their incoming JR class is loaded with talent. 2 D1 prospects. One is the coaches kid. The New Hire has changed the culture very quickly. You can tell their kids are in a strength/ cond program. Ok. I dont mean to turn this into a thread about one school. Theres just alot of excitement over there.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Totally agree with Western Dubuque out of District 4, followed by Xavier, which has to make this the toughest 3A district this year. Don't know about Wahlert picked last in the district. They return a ton of starters. Last year was a debacle after two straight winning seasons. Last year's seniors were the smallest class in school history, and only a couple had real talent.

 

[ronsss]

i was surpised to read from an artilcle in the harlan tribune (cyclone camp of champions) that coach bladt had some serious heatlh issues since last december. coach bladt was diagnoised with bone carcer and needed open heart surgery. at the camp, he was present in a motorized wheel chair...the prospects are good for him, the bone cancer is nearly gone, and heat surgery was a success. coach bladt remarked that is he starting to walk some and drive the car, good news for him....todd bladt , his son, will share the coaching duties with curt.

also, i read that harlan had put a lot of effort into the weight program for the team, and that they are happey with the results...hopefully will pay off on the field, time will tell....coach bladt stated that it was hard to predict anything about the team until pads are put on, but stated that he believes their are some candidates on the team.....we will see

 

[JAB 1]

I'm not sure Harlan will score on Lewis Central. If so it will be a broken play. I think the world of Coach Bladt, great guy-Harlan great community. LC's defense is absolutely loaded this year. SBL will tell the tale of the tape.

 

[ronsss]

i quess lewis central has a good receiver if i remember..d1 prospect? could be Thomas Fidone, and only junior....qb duggan will be missed....i suspect lewis central will start seaon as favorite to win the district..coach Jim duggan, who has left the program , will be missed..i absolutely know nothing about this harlan team coming into the season, or what their qb is like...time will tell . the cycones have no trouble getting particapation in the sport, in presean camp that just finished, 80 kids through grades 9-12, and 60 in 7-8 grade....in the past i have watched a few harlan- lewis central games when i could, at lew central...enjoyed them a lot

sbl lost a lot of their skilled players, their stud running back, and their 2 top recievers that were allmost 1000yds each...they do return their qb, a big plus

 

[JAB 1]

I think what everyone is missing is how stout the defense will be. They(LC) return 8 starters from last years D. The offense basically will need to score 10-14 points a game to get the "W". Deyo has put on 40 lbs and is a legit D1 prospect along with Logan Jones. LC D-Ends are very quick and can hit- same with the linebackers. Fidone was one of the first to be offered from Iowa receiver-wise because he grew and has good hands and had a great camp in Iowa city. In the past I'm sure you did enjoy the Harlan-LC games because Harlan never lost, that has changed and I believe some is the rural-urban split. The other is the momentum created by Duggan. LC is a football school now fer sure.

 

[ronsss]

Lewis central should be a dome team this year, I quess their QB has substituted for Duggan's when he got hurt couple years ago, and was solid....wonder if Lewis central will be 4a next year?

 

[Reasoned]

Would be nice to see a 5A class.
Waukee (2147) and WDV (2201) should both split into two additional schools (like ankeny).

Speaking of Ankeny, I don't know who was responsible for establishing the boundaries of the Ankeny/Centennial split but they sure accomplished parity enrollment wise, according to the 19-20 statistics, there's a 9 student differential between the two!

 

[KidSilverhair]

Waterloo East, Clinton, North Scott,CBLC, and Liberty should be 4A next year or they will need to push the bottom 5 or so 3A schools into 2A.

Liberty will definitely be in 4A next year. As far as the others go, Waterloo East's BEDS numbers dropped from 804 three years ago to around 740 the past two years; Clinton has been in a steady drop from 807 to around 740; North Scott has been remarkably steady around 710; and Lewis Central went from 754 two years ago to under 700 last year. I'm also not sure why Waterloo East and Clinton are a problem, since they went a combined 3-15 as 3A programs last year.

However - and I know enrollment counts are in flux all the time - the BEDS for 2019-20 are out, and while they don't affect classifications for this season, they might show a clue as to what is going to happen for 2020-21. Waterloo East is rebounding a little, up to 787. Clinton continues to fall, down to 730. Lewis Central and North Scott stay about the same.

If you used last spring's numbers, the cutoff for 4A would be 804 (Des Moines Hoover), with Burlington (800) moving to 3A to replace Liberty. There's also an enrollment tie for the final spot in 3A between Solon and Davenport Assumption, so don't be shocked if one of those schools ends up dropping to 2A for 2020-21 (although North Polk and Independence are showing steep drops from their 2018-19 BEDS numbers, so maybe one of them ends up plummeting to 2A?). If you're wondering, it looks like Benton Community would be the likely new 3A team replacing any program dropping to 2A.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Totally agree with Western Dubuque out of District 4, followed by Xavier, which has to make this the toughest 3A district this year. Don't know about Wahlert picked last in the district. They return a ton of starters. Last year was a debacle after two straight winning seasons. Last year's seniors were the smallest class in school history, and only a couple had real talent.

It will be interesting to see what the new coach does with those returning starters. He was the defensive coordinator at a D-II college in St. Louis, so we'll see if he can translate that to head coaching at Wahlert.

 

[bigbock91]

Western Dubuque does bring back their top RBS, QB and a playmaker returner but they lost most of their size last year. Granted if Harris doesn't get hurt they beat Xavier last year, they still had a lot of guys playing both ways interior wise. Tough to replace that.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Western Dubuque does bring back their top RBS, QB and a playmaker returner but they lost most of their size last year. Granted if Harris doesn't get hurt they beat Xavier last year, they still had a lot of guys playing both ways interior wise. Tough to replace that.

Remember, while Harris got hurt in that game so did Xavier’s running back, Stovie, who missed the entire second half. I don’t know if you can say it was a sure thing for WD if Harris doesn’t go out - but I do agree, it made a big difference. Just not sure it would have been a 14-point difference, but who can say? That’s the thing about playing the games on the field and not paper.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Hence why I push for a 5A class.

Just curious, what would be your criteria for classes? How many in 5A, 4A, etc?

I agree the enrollment splits in 4A alone are ridiculous (from 2200 to 800? Really?), and then in 3A you go from around 800 for the largest BEDS numbers down to 340-ish. I’d love something that makes a little more sense.

 

[bigbock91]

Remember, while Harris got hurt in that game so did Xavier’s running back, Stovie, who missed the entire second half. I don’t know if you can say it was a sure thing for WD if Harris doesn’t go out - but I do agree, it made a big difference. Just not sure it would have been a 14-point difference, but who can say? That’s the thing about playing the games on the field and not paper.

There is a big difference between a starting QB and a starting RB though. Just have to look at how WD moved the ball before and after losing him. There are always running backs (although not as talented as Stovie) who can run behind big O-lines. Schulte ran just fine in the second half. Much better than Stovie was doing. Replacing the QB who had moved the ball more than any other team all year with a WR who turned the ball over is the reason it was 14 points. Punts and turnovers that would not have occurred with a talented QB.

 

[cubbie-man]

There is a big difference between a starting QB and a starting RB though. Just have to look at how WD moved the ball before and after losing him. There are always running backs (although not as talented as Stovie) who can run behind big O-lines. Schulte ran just fine in the second half. Much better than Stovie was doing. Replacing the QB who had moved the ball more than any other team all year with a WR who turned the ball over is the reason it was 14 points. Punts and turnovers that would not have occurred with a talented QB.

WD started to punt and not score toward end of the 1st half. Xavier didn't punt in it's last 2 games. How would you have known you would of stopped them?

 

[La_Fleur]

There is a big difference between a starting QB and a starting RB though. Just have to look at how WD moved the ball before and after losing him. There are always running backs (although not as talented as Stovie) who can run behind big O-lines. Schulte ran just fine in the second half. Much better than Stovie was doing. Replacing the QB who had moved the ball more than any other team all year with a WR who turned the ball over is the reason it was 14 points. Punts and turnovers that would not have occurred with a talented QB.

I don't think WD turned it over in the second half. Xavier had 2 or 3 long, time consuming drives in the second half similar to their game vs Lewis Central. He didn't play defense so really wouldn't have been on the field that much and affected the game. If you have a running quarterback, you run the risk of him getting hurt. Part of the game. Obviously they would've liked to have him in there but I don't think it's a clear wash that they win the game if he is.

 

[bigbock91]

I don't think WD turned it over in the second half. Xavier had 2 or 3 long, time consuming drives in the second half similar to their game vs Lewis Central. He didn't play defense so really wouldn't have been on the field that much and affected the game. If you have a running quarterback, you run the risk of him getting hurt. Part of the game. Obviously they would've liked to have him in there but I don't think it's a clear wash that they win the game if he is.

There is no way to know for sure if they could have continued to slow Xavier down, but WD did turn the ball over in the second half at least once and had several 3 and outs which obviously did not help the defense and was a major factor of why Xavier was able to continue their long drives. When the defense is only off the field for 30 seconds of game clock (3-5 minutes of real time), that gets tough.

 

[ghost80]

I would assume that no one on the Western part of the state can give what is essentially a very good 4A team much of a game. W Waterloo East, Clinton, North Scott,CBLC, and Liberty should be 4A next year or they will need to push the bottom 5 or so 3A schools into 2A.

Would be nice to see a 5A class.
Waukee (2147) and WDV (2201) should both split into two additional schools (like ankeny).

Waukee is constructing a second High School on the northwest side of town.

EDIT: Waukee's 2nd high school is slated to open 2021. Ankeny is expecting to open their 3rd high school 2034 (which really is only 15 years away).

 

[ghost80]

Need Valley to follow suit.

I'd put money on Ankeny having 4 high schools (which if their population projections holds true will happen) before Valley builds a second. The people in WDM were too scared of having a school of the "haves" and a school of the "have nots" to build a second school when it really mattered. Now it doesn't matter as much. If you don't like your opportunities at Valley due to the size....open enroll out.

 

[bigbock91]

I would do it like the girls did softball or similar.

I would break up the top schools of enrollment of 1000 and greater as 5A (state really needs to get valley and waukee to split like ankeny).
5A >999 (30 teams)
4A >625 (21 teams)
3A>375 (33 team)
2A>150 (45 teams)
1A>150 ()
A>60 ()
8 fills out the rest.
I know going off today's numbers would be odd but this obviously could be flexed.

private schools in metros get a qualifier.

Just really need to avoid 2.5x enrollment differences. A team is able to opt to play up, but must remain up for a full 2 season term..


NOTE- just a quick example, it is by no means an end all, be all statement. If you have suggestions feel free - but this is just a quick plan, it would obviously need tweaking.

Waukee has already started the split process and August 2021 their second high school opens. Good luck with Valley, it will never happen. Really agree with the 5A option. Seems to have somewhat leveled the playing field with the girls.

 

[KidSilverhair]

This rejiggering of the classes always fascinates me. I guess I just have too much time on my hands.

One of the issues you run into with adding a 5A is you can't make 4A very big without having too much of an enrollment range in that class. Going by a rough guideline of the biggest school only about twice as large as the smallest, I can do a 36-member 5A (including two Waukees, that would have the Council Bluffs schools and Sioux City West as the smallest, around 940 BEDS in the 2019-20 list).

Class 4A I had to stop with 30 members, with Ottumwa (933) as the largest and Decorah (454) as the smallest. I was able to get 48 into Class 3A and 2A, but I stopped there because I know I'm probably going to screw up with combined programs. Class 3A would range from Bondurant-Farrar (436) to Clarke (287), and 2A from Albia (285) to Clarion-Goldfield-Dows (199). Heck, I could probably do 56 in each of those classes, but I'm not motivated enough to do that right at the moment.

I did use a 1.2 multiplier for the metro private schools, as mentioned above, but it didn't change where anybody got classified.

 

[KidSilverhair]

What the heck, a quick copy and paste - with 56 in Class 3A the bottom school would be (a multiplier-adjusted) Des Moines Christian (275 adjusted), with the biggest 2A school now Sioux Center (273) and the smallest among West Central Valley, West Branch, Sibley-Ocheydan, and Bellevue (183).

(I edited this post because I realized my math was way off with an earlier complaint about having too many teams left between 1A and A ... it's actually just 88, which is easy doable for two classes.)