The final survey from Atlas Intel shows Trump is ahead in all swing states by 1 point to 6.5 points, with the pollster saying he has “significant margins” over Harris in Nevada and Arizona.
A model produced by poll analyst Nate Silver, who used to operate the FiveThirtyEight website, has given Trump a 53.8 percent chance of winning over Harris’s 45.8 percent.
Silver, at the same time, has accused some pollsters of putting their “finger on the scale” and lying to keep the presidential race close in polls, according to a podcast interview last week.
While Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan don’t report by party affiliation, four other battleground states do.
In Arizona, registered Republicans are ahead of registered Democrats by about 180,000 votes, while unaffiliated voters make up about 26.7 percent of the total votes cast, the tracker shows. The state only has mail-in ballots, not early in-person voting.
In Nevada, Republicans have a 40,000-vote lead in the early-vote total, buoyed by a strong in-person vote showing, the data show.
Days after early voting opened in North Carolina, registered Republicans took a slight lead over Democrats and have maintained the advantage as of Sunday, according to the tracker. GOP voters currently have a 42,000-vote lead over Democrats in that state.
While only 1.7 million people have voted early in Pennsylvania, Democrats have a 400,000-ballot lead over Republicans, the tracker shows. Pennsylvania, which has about 9 million registered voters, only reports mail-in ballots.
Polls
A model produced by poll analyst Nate Silver, who used to operate the FiveThirtyEight website, has given Trump a 53.8 percent chance of winning over Harris’s 45.8 percent.
Silver, at the same time, has accused some pollsters of putting their “finger on the scale” and lying to keep the presidential race close in polls, according to a podcast interview last week.
While Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan don’t report by party affiliation, four other battleground states do.
In Arizona, registered Republicans are ahead of registered Democrats by about 180,000 votes, while unaffiliated voters make up about 26.7 percent of the total votes cast, the tracker shows. The state only has mail-in ballots, not early in-person voting.
In Nevada, Republicans have a 40,000-vote lead in the early-vote total, buoyed by a strong in-person vote showing, the data show.
Days after early voting opened in North Carolina, registered Republicans took a slight lead over Democrats and have maintained the advantage as of Sunday, according to the tracker. GOP voters currently have a 42,000-vote lead over Democrats in that state.
While only 1.7 million people have voted early in Pennsylvania, Democrats have a 400,000-ballot lead over Republicans, the tracker shows. Pennsylvania, which has about 9 million registered voters, only reports mail-in ballots.
Polls
