Things have sorted themselves out, mostly, even with one week to go. District champions are set in six of the seven districts, while three of the seven are totally set and it's only kind of complicated for a couple of the remaining districts.
Let's go to the videotape!
SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON has won the district.
SPENCER is in if they beat Algona; who woulda thunk, right?
HEELAN needs to win plus a Spencer loss. They're in the running for a wild card at 5-2.
STORM LAKE can still get in if they beat SBL, as long as both Heelan and Spencer lose. They'd be in play for a wild card at 5-2, unless Heelan is also in the pool (Heelan's win over Storm Lake would knock them out).
DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES has won the district.
WEBSTER CITY gets second if they beat Boone.
BOONE has to beat Webster City by at least 14 points, or have Ballard lose.
BALLARD is out except for a possible wild card (they can't catch Webster City in a points tiebreaker).
If Boone, Ballard and Webster City all finish 5-2 it depends on the score margins. A big win for Boone gets them second place; Webster City goes in the wild card pool while Ballard is eliminated. A narrow win for Boone keeps Webster City in second; Boone gets knocked out of the wild card pool due to their loss to Ballard. Should Carlisle also be in the wild card pool, that knocks Ballard out, as well.
XAVIER is district champion.
WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK is second.
DECORAH could get in the wild card pool with a win.
WEST DELAWARE wins the district with a win. If they lose, they still get in if Marion beats Assumption, OR if they lose by 15 points or less PLUS Marion loses by at least 2 PLUS a win by Wahlert.
(Actually, I believe if West Delaware loses, Assumption beats Marion, and Wahlert wins
The MARION-DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION winner is in. Marion becomes district champion if they win; Assumption can be the champion if West Delaware loses. Marion can also make it if they lose by a point while West Delaware loses by 15 points or more.
DUBUQUE WAHLERT is out except for wild card consideration; they can't catch West Delaware in points.
If both Marion and Wahlert finish 5-2, Marion is knocked out of the pool due to their loss to Wahlert. If Assumption and Wahlert finish 5-2, it's Wahlert that is removed from the pool.
SOLON is district champion.
WASHINGTON is second.
OSKALOOSA can get in the wild card pool.
PELLA has won the district.
The NORWALK-CARLISLE winner will finish second. The loser is in the wild card pool.
HARLAN has won the district.
GLENWOOD is second.
WINTERSET can get in the wild card pool with a win over Denison-Schleswig, unless Norwalk loses to Carlisle to go in the pool - that would knock Winterset out.
Operating from the assumption that Marion loses to Assumption and Carlisle defeats Norwalk (just to pick an outcome; I think both those games are pretty even) then the wild card pool becomes Heelan; Ballard; Decorah; Wahlert; Oskaloosa; and Norwalk. Given the current point differentials, it's pretty hard not to have Norwalk as one of the wild cards, while the other is likely Decorah. (If Norwalk beats Carlisle, that knocks Ballard out of the pool and puts Winterset in; Carlisle's point differential is even better than Norwalk's, so they probably get in).
That sets up possible first round matchups like so:
Let's go to the videotape!
DISTRICT 1
SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON has won the district.
SPENCER is in if they beat Algona; who woulda thunk, right?
HEELAN needs to win plus a Spencer loss. They're in the running for a wild card at 5-2.
STORM LAKE can still get in if they beat SBL, as long as both Heelan and Spencer lose. They'd be in play for a wild card at 5-2, unless Heelan is also in the pool (Heelan's win over Storm Lake would knock them out).
- SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON (7-0, 9-0)
- SPENCER (5-2, 7-2; head-to-head tiebreaker over Heelan)
- HEELAN (5-2, 7-2)
- STORM LAKE (4-3, 6-3)
- SPIRIT LAKE (3-4, 5-4)
- HUMBOLDT (2-5, 3-6)
- LE MARS (1-6, 2-7)
- ALGONA (1-6, 3-6)
DISTRICT 2
DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES has won the district.
WEBSTER CITY gets second if they beat Boone.
BOONE has to beat Webster City by at least 14 points, or have Ballard lose.
BALLARD is out except for a possible wild card (they can't catch Webster City in a points tiebreaker).
If Boone, Ballard and Webster City all finish 5-2 it depends on the score margins. A big win for Boone gets them second place; Webster City goes in the wild card pool while Ballard is eliminated. A narrow win for Boone keeps Webster City in second; Boone gets knocked out of the wild card pool due to their loss to Ballard. Should Carlisle also be in the wild card pool, that knocks Ballard out, as well.
- DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES (7-0, 9-0)
- WEBSTER CITY (6-1, 8-1)
- BALLARD (5-2, 5-4)
- BOONE (4-3, 6-3)
- PERRY (3-4, 4-5)
- GILBERT (2-5, 3-6)
- GREENE COUNTY (1-6, 1-8)
- IOWA FALLS-ALDEN (0-7, 1-8)
DISTRICT 3
XAVIER is district champion.
WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK is second.
DECORAH could get in the wild card pool with a win.
- XAVIER (7-0, 9-0)
- WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK (6-1, 8-1)
- DECORAH (5-2, 7-2)
- BENTON (4-3, 6-3)
- INDEPENDENCE (3-4, 4-6)
- CHARLES CITY (1-6, 2-7)
- SOUTH TAMA (1-6, 2-7)
- VINTON-SHELLSBURG (1-6, 1-8)
DISTRICT 4
WEST DELAWARE wins the district with a win. If they lose, they still get in if Marion beats Assumption, OR if they lose by 15 points or less PLUS Marion loses by at least 2 PLUS a win by Wahlert.
(Actually, I believe if West Delaware loses, Assumption beats Marion, and Wahlert wins
The MARION-DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION winner is in. Marion becomes district champion if they win; Assumption can be the champion if West Delaware loses. Marion can also make it if they lose by a point while West Delaware loses by 15 points or more.
DUBUQUE WAHLERT is out except for wild card consideration; they can't catch West Delaware in points.
If both Marion and Wahlert finish 5-2, Marion is knocked out of the pool due to their loss to Wahlert. If Assumption and Wahlert finish 5-2, it's Wahlert that is removed from the pool.
IF MARION WINS:
- MARION (6-1, 7-2; head-to-head tiebreaker over West Delaware)
- WEST DELAWARE (6-1, 7-2)
- DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION (5-2, 6-3; head-to-head over Wahlert)
- DUBUQUE WAHLERT (5-2, 5-4)
- CLEAR CREEK-AMANA (3-4, 3-6)
- CENTER POINT-URBANA (2-5, 4-5)
- CENTRAL DE WITT (1-6, 1-8)
- MAQUOKETA (0-7, 0-9)
IF ASSUMPTION WINS:
- WEST DELAWARE (6-1, 7-2; head-to-head tiebreaker over Assumption)
- DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION (6-1, 7-2)
- DUBUQUE WAHLERT (5-2, 6-3; head-to-head over Marion)
- MARION (5-2, 5-4)
- CLEAR CREEK-AMANA (3-4, 3-6)
- CENTER POINT-URBANA (2-5, 4-5)
- CENTRAL DE WITT (1-6, 1-8)
- MAQUOKETA (0-7, 0-9)
DISTRICT 5
SOLON is district champion.
WASHINGTON is second.
OSKALOOSA can get in the wild card pool.
- SOLON (7-0, 9-0)
- WASHINGTON (6-1, 8-1)
- OSKALOOSA (5-2, 6-3)
- MT PLEASANT (4-3, 6-3)
- FT MADISON (2-5, 4-5)
- WEST BURLINGTON/ND (2-5, 2-7)
- FAIRFIELD (2-5, 2-7)
- KEOKUK (0-7, 0-9)
DISTRICT 6
PELLA has won the district.
The NORWALK-CARLISLE winner will finish second. The loser is in the wild card pool.
IF CARLISLE WINS
- PELLA (7-0, 8-1)
- CARLISLE (6-1, 8-1)
- NORWALK (5-2, 6-3)
- NEVADA (3-4, 5-4)
- KNOXVILLE (3-4, 5-4)
- BONDURANT-FARRAR (2-5, 2-7)
- NORTH POLK (1-6, 2-7)
- GRINNELL (1-6, 1-8)
IF NORWALK WINS
- PELLA (7-0, 8-1)
- NORWALK (6-1, 7-2)
- CARLISLE (5-2, 7-2)
- NEVADA (3-4, 5-4)
- KNOXVILLE (3-4, 5-4)
- BONDURANT-FARRAR (2-5, 2-7)
- NORTH POLK (1-6, 2-7)
- GRINNELL (1-6, 1-8)
DISTRICT 7
HARLAN has won the district.
GLENWOOD is second.
WINTERSET can get in the wild card pool with a win over Denison-Schleswig, unless Norwalk loses to Carlisle to go in the pool - that would knock Winterset out.
- HARLAN (7-0, 8-1)
- GLENWOOD (6-1, 8-1)
- WINTERSET (5-2, 6-3)
- DENISON-SCHLESWIG (3-4, 4-5)
- ATLANTIC (3-4, 5-4)
- CARROLL (3-4, 4-5)
- CRESTON-OM (1-6, 2-7)
- ADM (0-7, 1-8)
Operating from the assumption that Marion loses to Assumption and Carlisle defeats Norwalk (just to pick an outcome; I think both those games are pretty even) then the wild card pool becomes Heelan; Ballard; Decorah; Wahlert; Oskaloosa; and Norwalk. Given the current point differentials, it's pretty hard not to have Norwalk as one of the wild cards, while the other is likely Decorah. (If Norwalk beats Carlisle, that knocks Ballard out of the pool and puts Winterset in; Carlisle's point differential is even better than Norwalk's, so they probably get in).
That sets up possible first round matchups like so:
- Glenwood at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
- Spencer at Harlan
- Webster City at Waverly-Shell Rock (2v2, alphabetical order for homefield)
- Decorah at West Delaware
- Assumption at Solon
- Washington at Xavier
- Carlisle at Dallas Center-Grimes
- Norwalk at Pella (yeah, I know, district rematch, but the state playoff manual does say they CAN have district rematches with the wild card teams, and I don't see a smoother way to do this if there's three qualifiers from District 6)
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