Mini-game: predict the 2A seeds

[theocia]

Van Meter
Kuemper Catholic, Carroll
Cascade, Western Dubuque
Garner-Hayfield-Ventura
Western Christian, Hull
Camanche
South Hamilton, Jewell
Pella Christian

Decided entirely by the 8 participating coaches this year?
Can they vote themselves #1? Talk to each other?
Who do they want on the opposite side of the bracket?
Will they vote strategically or straight up personal ranking?

 

[theocia]

1 Western
8 Van Meter
4 Comanche
5 Garner GHV
2 Pella Christian
7 South Hamilton, Jewell
3 Kuemper Catholic
6 Cascade

 

[GatorBait1988]

Two separate issues for me,

1). What I believe will happen
2). What I believe should happen


Believe:
1). WC
2). KC
3). PC
4). Cascade
5). Camanche
6). Garner
7). South Hamiltion
8). Van Meter

Should:
1). PC
2). WC
3). Cascade
4). Camanche
5). KC
6). Garner
7). South Hamiltion
8). Van Meter


Not much difference, but some.

 

[basketballfan2311]

1. Pella Christian
2. Western Christian, Hull
3. Cascade, Western Dubuque
4. Kuemper Catholic, Carroll
5. South Hamilton, Jewell
6. Camanche
7. Van Meter
8. Garner-Hayfield-Ventura

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Fourth straight year for Cascade, with all new kids. They are a 3 or 4, as most have them. The "Voice of the Hawkeyes," Gary Dolphin, was point guard for the Cougars back in the Dark Ages.

 

[Jayz10]

Though I think PC's schedule is a smidge tougher than Westerns, western has a better record, has been #1 all year, and should be the 1 seed and PC 2 seed. Hopefully it works out that the two can play in the ship

 

[HawkPT]

Though I think PC's schedule is a smidge tougher than Westerns, western has a better record, has been #1 all year, and should be the 1 seed and PC 2 seed. Hopefully it works out that the two can play in the ship

Prior to the. Start of districts, the difference between PC (1) and WC (3) strength of schedule was about the same as the difference between WC and the #37 SOS. I know SOS is not the only factor, but that's more than a smidge.

 

[sarcastico]

Western also picked up wins over two top 5 teams from South Dakota. The computers don't properly take that into account when calculating schedule strength. So Western's schedule is closer to PC's than the computer gives them credit for.

I am also not convinced the Little Hawkeye is this insane powerhouse some people are trying to make it out to be. Don't get me wrong, it is a very good conference from top to bottom. Lot's of strong teams. But when was the last time a Little Hawkeye team actually won state? I can't even remember a team being in the championship game the last few years from there.

 

[Jayz10]

Prior to the. Start of districts, the difference between PC (1) and WC (3) strength of schedule was about the same as the difference between WC and the #37 SOS. I know SOS is not the only factor, but that's more than a smidge.

I'm not sure I follow exactly. What are you trying to say about #37 before districts?

 

[VanderHoops]

What is the actual procedure?
The 8 coaches send in their picks today?
Are they given any instructions/warnings?
Are they barred from conferring with each other?

Not announced until Wed (1/2 the state can't watch or will they unscramble the feed?). Can't imagine the coaches like having to wait 4 extra days to find out who their opponent will be.

 

[Lyoncounty]

I think you are correct in that coaches cant be excited in waiting 4 extra days to find out the opponent. Fortunately for them they have huddle. How bad would this have been in the old days when you actually had to mail film?

I assume they are already taking a look at potential opponents, but are not going to really narrow it down until they know who they are playing.

 

[Jayz10]

Correct. 1/2 the state can't watch the "selection show". Cuz again, IAHSAA and their overpaid ignorant leaders are idiots.

 

[HawkPT]

I'm not sure I follow exactly. What are you trying to say about #37 before districts?

According to BCMoore, before district play began, PC's SOS was 105.16, which was the toughest in 2A. Western Christian's was 94.77, which was the 3rd toughest in 2A and a difference of approximately 10 points relative to PC's SOS.

The team that was approximately 10 points below WC in SOS at that time was North Cedar (Stanwood), which was the #37 SOS at that time.

I'm saying that the PC SOS was much stronger than WC's.

Sarcastico... you really can't claim that WC played two tough teams out of state and discredit the LHC strength simultaneously. At least we have data to support the strength of the LHC. Whether or not a conference team wins a state tournament isn't really a good indication of conference strength. And past years' conference strength has no bearing on this year.

PC's performance in the LHC this year was impressive and deserves some consideration when seeding, in my opinion. The LHC is currently ranked by BCMoore as the 2nd toughest conference in all of Iowa behind the MVC and above the MAC & CIML, primarily because of its parity and the depth of strong teams. The LHC strength is nearly 15 points higher than the Lakes Conference (104.27 vs. 89.66) according to BCMoore.

I'm simply saying that PC has a strong case for the #1 seed in 2A. I don't think that they'll get it, but the case can certainly be made with a straight face. This is no discredit to Western Christian. They're an excellent team and can also arguably claim themselves worthy of the #1 seed as well. They obviously survived the toughest substate in 2A.

 

[sarcastico]

I will agree that PC has a case for the one seed. I honestly would not at all upset if they got it. I just don't think the SOS gap is as large as you are making it seem. I do think PC's was harder but you can't discount two good SD teams just because BCMoore doesn't have any data for out of state teams. They don't become bad teams just because the computer doesn't know anything about them. I would say pretty confidently that Sioux Fall Christian would be a top 10 team in 2A if they played in Iowa.

I also meant no disrespect to the LHC. Like I said it is a very good conference from top to bottom. One of the best in the state. Which is probably why the computer likes it so much. But just playing in a tough conference doesn't necessarily make you the better team. Which was my point with the championships. The LHC has been one of the toughest conferences for many years now but it has been a while since they actually had the best team. So playing in the toughest conference doesn't automatically make you the best team, which is what we are talking about with the #1 seed.

Honestly I don't think either Western or PC will get the 1 as I just have a feeling coaches will still go by straight record and not consider strength of schedule. Hope I am wrong though.

 

[VanderHoops]

I think you are correct in that coaches cant be excited in waiting 4 extra days to find out the opponent. Fortunately for them they have huddle. How bad would this have been in the old days when you actually had to mail film?

I assume they are already taking a look at potential opponents, but are not going to really narrow it down until they know who they are playing.

Plus for fans, it makes things a lot more difficult to plan.
In 2A, games could be Mon or Tues. We have to ask off work, move schedules around.

There's no BIG surprises. Everyone knows who's in. Just give us the schedule!

 

[VanderHoops]

..
The team that was approximately 10 points below WC in SOS at that time was North Cedar (Stanwood), which was the #37 SOS at that time..

This is the craziest logic I've read in a long time.

Personally, I want PC and Kuemper on the opposite side of Western's bracket. I think they are the toughest match-up for us.
And unlike our PC "brothers," almost all Western fans will cheer for PC, DMC, or Unity to keep winning. We're a small club and should be supporting each other. Kind of disheartening to see Pella Christian fans actively cheering against Western at state every year.

The computer, coaches, and sportswriters all agree with who's #1.
Winning three games in March will settle all the disputes & good luck to all 8 that have a shot at it.

 

[theocia]

This is the craziest logic I've read in a long time..

Agree. Fuzzy math

And unlike our PC "brothers," almost all Western fans will cheer for PC, DMC, or Unity to keep winning. We're a small club and should be supporting each other. Kind of disheartening to see Pella Christian fans actively cheering against Western at state every year.

Then quit winning so much! No one likes a monopoly. I'm sure Western had a lot of people all over the state happy to see them knock off Regina in FB.
Personally, I want to see NW IA continue their dominance of the small classes, then I'll back my Dutch Reformed "cousins."

The computer, coaches, and sportswriters all agree with who's #1.

Hard to argue with the consensus. Guessing Western's coach isn't that concerned about the order, just the wins

Winning three games in March will settle all the disputes.

This

 

[Bbvr]

So why not cheer for the Catholics ? they aren't worthy of being in your Brotherhood? Just for your information the only people that root for you are the elitist in your little Club it's time for a multiplier for the private schools!! It's time to even the playing field . Iowa one of seven states that don't do it

 

[sarcastico]

So why not cheer for the Catholics ? they aren't worthy of being in your Brotherhood? Just for your information the only people that root for you are the elitist in your little Club it's time for a multiplier for the private schools!! It's time to even the playing field . Iowa one of seven states that don't do it

And there it is. Surprised it took this long.

 

[Red87]

I believe the selction show feed, itself, is free and live for everyone with Internet access.

 

[theocia]

So why not cheer for the Catholics ? they aren't worthy of being in your Brotherhood?

They already have the pope on their side! (and a pretty good track record already).
There are just 4 schools in the whole state with origins in a tiny denomination. Many of the supporters are relatives, former classmates, etc.. Why wouldn't we support each other? Wouldn't you cheer for your nephew's team?

Just for your information the only people that root for you are the elitist in your little Club

You know how everybody else feels? I'm impressed!

 

[HawkPT]

Vander Hoops & theocia... I'm not sure what's fuzzy about my math and logic, but alright. Eleven of PC's 21 regular season games were against teams that are still playing (eight 3A teams and two 4A). Two of PC's losses occurred with their best post player, Kacmarynski, out with an ankle injury. It's not about playing in a tough conference; it's about what they've accomplished in the second toughest conference in the state.

Like I said, PC probably won't get the 1-seed, and if WC does, I'm fine with it. They're deserving too. I am of the personal opinion that each season needs to be considered independent of the past season(s). So, the fact that Western Christian is the defending champion, in my opinion, should have no bearing on the seeding decision.

As a PC brother, I can tell you I've never witnessed any PC fan cheering against Western except when we've faced you on the court. I'm sure many wouldn't be too sad if you lost, but that's what being the Duke of Iowa high school basketball will do for you. You should take it as a compliment.

 

[Bbvr]

Reasons for a multiplier mr. Sarcastic public schools have an average 8 to 12 (boys or girls whatever you want to use) that go out for basketball per class The 4to 6 feeder schools for Western and unity have about 8 to 10 per class. Just for easy math say half go to Unity half to Western. The public school still has the 8 to 12 where the private have around 20 kids to pick from per class I know what kids I'd rather pick from !!

 

[sarcastico]

Reasons for a multiplier mr. Sarcastic public schools have an average 8 to 12 (boys or girls whatever you want to use) that go out for basketball per class The 4to 6 feeder schools for Western and unity have about 8 to 10 per class. Just for easy math say half go to Unity half to Western. The public school still has the 8 to 12 where the private have around 20 kids to pick from per class I know what kids I'd rather pick from !!

Actually I think you have a fair point there. The way the schools systems are set up is an advantage for Western and Unity. Bet you weren't expecting that.

Now having said that I don't believe that it alone is enough to explain the success of a program like Western. An intense basketball culture, stellar athletes, and some amazing coaching goes right along with it. I look at Unity of proof of that. They have not been the same program at all since they lost Miedema as their head coach. It's is the same system but the coaching has not been there and neither have the results.

My other problem with just a straight multiplier for private schools is the fact that not all of them have an advantage. Really we are talking about a very select group of private schools that have done most of the winning. Going back to 2006 we have had 44 champions in all four classes. Of those 44 champions 14 have been private schools. Of those 14 teams 11 have been Western, Wahlert, or Heelan. So really it is a small group of highly successful programs we are talking about here.

My final point is this, even if you multiply private schools we still will issues. The reality is that not all public school districts are on a level playing field either. You will still have some public schools in more affluent areas which have an altogether different type of student body than your low income school districts. You will still have your Iowa City West's and Des Moines North's. If we do something big as a state like put in a multiplier I think we need to address this issue as well.

I actually like the way Minnesota does it with a reverse multiplier. They use a formula based on the number of students in a school activity program and the number registered for free or reduced lunch. They will then reduce enrollment numbers accordingly creating a more even playing field all the way around. I would be in favor of Iowa looking at something similar.

 

[Bbvr]

I agree Western has a great coaching staff but it makes it a lot easier to coach when you have Stellar athletes all the time they never rebuild they always reload when was the last time Western had a sub 500 record in boys basketball? Even great coaches like Loren de Jong at Moc has rough stretches one more point how many Hispanics go to private schools? Have nothing against them they are good people and need an education too. And public schools also have area 4 kids that count against their enrollment the multiplier way is the only way in this part of the state also see a lot of posts on here who should be number 1 seed western or Pella because they beat a lot of good 3A schools around them that tells me a multiplier would not hurt private schools, it would just help keep things more balanced. A lot of good Sioux Center in Sheldon team stayed home because of it

 

[sarcastico]

Bbvr I get where you are coming from and I can see why people want a private school multiplier. Again, I won't argue that private schools don't have advantages. But your post is a classic example of why I get tired of this argument. People never want to have a real discussion on how we can improve equality among high schools and try to maintain a fairly level playing field for all teams. It always just ends up, well that private school I don't like wins all the time and I want someone else to have a chance. I am open the idea of the state doing something but I just want it to be more substantive than a simple private school multiplier. Let's address all the issues that lead to inequality if we are going to get into it.

 

[Bbvr]

The boy's in Boone can't even figure out a fair TV deal for all the Iowa people. Ain't no way in hell they can figure something out for this. At least you admit there is a problem a lot of people I talk to you don't think there is.

 

[theocia]

Thanks for hijacking yet another thread with this topic.
(and you redirected it again when you couldn't address sarcastico's question)
We get it, your feeling are hurt because the world isn't fair.

At least make your 2A seeding prediction!

 

[GatorBait1988]

The typical defense,

You make a valid point using a system everybody is basing information off of, then the response is....."Well.....it doesn't matter, you have to beat everyone anyway.". Well of course you have to beat everyone and I don't think anyone was stating that PC was BETTER than WC based off of schedule, but to believe that WC's schedule is as tough or for that matter even close to being as tough as PC's is crazy. It's not. Look at the playoffs, it's full of team PC has played or beat, and for that matter all of them are in classifications higher than PC.

Again, no one is stating that PC is better based off of playing a way tougher schedule, the point was and proves true, PC's schedule was tougher, way tougher.

 

[VanderHoops]

1 Western
2 Pella Christian
3 Kuemper Catholic
4 Cascade
5 Comanche
6 Garner GHV
7 South Hamilton, Jewell
8 Van Meter

 

[nwmsbearcat]

1 Pella Christian
2 Western Christian
3 Kuemper
4 GHV
5 Camanche
6 Van Meter
7 Cascade
8 South Hamilton

 

[GatorBait1988]

1 Western
2 Pella Christian
3 Kuemper Catholic
4 Comanche
5 Garner GHV
6 Cascade
7 South Hamilton, Jewell
8 Van Meter

If somehow Camanche receives a higher seed than Cascade, then the system is flawed. Same record. Cascade has a tougher schedule (according to BC), and Cascade has beat them head to head....twice.

 

[HawkPT]

According to someone in the know with whom I recently spoke, the IAHSAA gave some guidelines to the coaches/ADs as they submitted their seeding. I don't know all the details, but this person said that if the coaches vote according to those guidelines, PC is the clear #1 seed.

He specifically mentioned games/record against teams that make the substate final and games/record against teams with 15+ wins, as well as something regarding the size/quality of the competition, I believe.

That doesn't mean that coaches will vote in that regard, but I found it interesting that the association did attempt to give some guidance to the group.

 

[PNation]

Actually I think you have a fair point there. The way the schools systems are set up is an advantage for Western and Unity. Bet you weren't expecting that.

Now having said that I don't believe that it alone is enough to explain the success of a program like Western. An intense basketball culture, stellar athletes, and some amazing coaching goes right along with it. I look at Unity of proof of that. They have not been the same program at all since they lost Miedema as their head coach. It's is the same system but the coaching has not been there and neither have the results.

My other problem with just a straight multiplier for private schools is the fact that not all of them have an advantage. Really we are talking about a very select group of private schools that have done most of the winning. Going back to 2006 we have had 44 champions in all four classes. Of those 44 champions 14 have been private schools. Of those 14 teams 11 have been Western, Wahlert, or Heelan. So really it is a small group of highly successful programs we are talking about here.

My final point is this, even if you multiply private schools we still will issues. The reality is that not all public school districts are on a level playing field either. You will still have some public schools in more affluent areas which have an altogether different type of student body than your low income school districts. You will still have your Iowa City West's and Des Moines North's. If we do something big as a state like put in a multiplier I think we need to address this issue as well.

I actually like the way Minnesota does it with a reverse multiplier. They use a formula based on the number of students in a school activity program and the number registered for free or reduced lunch. They will then reduce enrollment numbers accordingly creating a more even playing field all the way around. I would be in favor of Iowa looking at something similar.

I like your idea of the reverse multiplier, for public schools as well, I think that this is a far better idea then just a straight multiplier. I also think for parochials you have to look at population drawn from as well. It may not apply to Western or Pella Christian, but it is clear that the big city parochials have more of an advantage then someone like Remsen St. Mary's.

 

[theocia]

''. Look at the playoffs, it's full of team PC has played or beat, and for that matter all of them are in classifications higher than PC. .

That's because they have multiple classes and their geography allows splitting into different regions (ie DC-G). If the LHC was all 3A schools and in a corner of the state, they'd have 1, maybe 2 teams alive. If you're not in the middle of the state, all the good teams knock each out before reaching state.

Again, no one is stating that PC is better based off of playing a way tougher schedule

Isn't that exactly what you're trying to state?

PC's schedule was tougher, way tougher

 

[theocia]

According to someone in the know with whom I recently spoke, the IAHSAA gave some guidelines to the coaches/ADs as they submitted their seeding. I don't know all the details, but this person said that if the coaches vote according to those guidelines, PC is the clear #1 seed.

He specifically mentioned games/record against teams that make the substate final and games/record against teams with 15+ wins, as well as something regarding the size/quality of the competition, I believe.

That doesn't mean that coaches will vote in that regard, but I found it interesting that the association did attempt to give some guidance to the group.

The directive was to consider all factors, not to weight W-L record over all others.

SOS is the only factor PC leads in. How does that make them the "clear #1 seed."?
Garner/Van Meter have the best record, Western leads in most other categories.

Guessing PC just wants to be on the opposite side of the bracket from Western and vise-versa. Actual 1 or 2 is of more interest to the fans.

 

[VanderHoops]

If somehow Camanche receives a higher seed than Cascade, then the system is flawed. Same record. Cascade has a tougher schedule (according to BC), and Cascade has beat them head to head....twice.

I have little knowledge of hoops on that side of the state & just went by BCMoore.
If both Camanche losses are to Cascade, I'm flipping my picks.
Thanks for the info.

 

[VanderHoops]

Love all the chatter here. The only interesting time to be here is tourney time. Let's keep it up!

I think most realize it's easy to come off a lot more hostile than intended on social media.
Seems like most can still be fervent fans and still keep things civil.
Good luck to all with a team in Des Moines next week.

 

[VanderHoops]

They already have the pope on their side! (and a pretty good track record already).
There are just 4 schools in the whole state with origins in a tiny denomination. Many of the supporters are relatives, former classmates, etc.. Why wouldn't we support each other? Wouldn't you cheer for your nephew's team?

Still hoping for the dream final 4 of:
DMC - PC - Western - Unity

Of course, that might mean the end of times is near!

 

[HawkPT]

That's because they have multiple classes and their geography allows splitting into different regions (ie DC-G). If the LHC was all 3A schools and in a corner of the state, they'd have 1, maybe 2 teams alive. If you're not in the middle of the state, all the good teams knock each out before reaching state.

Isn't that exactly what you're trying to state?

It's not what I was attempting to say. I have simply been professing that PC has a strong argument for the #1 seed.