Looking Ahead to 2016....

[IOU1]

Now that the Championship Game is set and we have a week to break it down...why not take a sneak peek at 2016 just for fun....

Algona, Assumption, Ballard, Benton, BHRV, Bondurant, Carlisle, Carroll, Chariton, Clear Creek, Creston, DC-G, Decorah, Fairfield, Gilbert, Glenwood, Harlan, Heelan, Humboldt, Indee, Maquoketa, Norwalk, Pella, SB-L, Solon, Spencer, Wahlert, Washington, Webster City, West Delaware, WSR and Xavier all made the dance this year.

Reformatting automatically eliminates HALF of the teams listed above. It seems as though many of the teams who made deep playoff runs this year were senior driven. Who brings back enough of a nucleus/core to dance again in 2016?

 

[CBCrusader1994]

Now that the Championship Game is set and we have a week to break it down...why not take a sneak peek at 2016 just for fun....

Algona, Assumption, Ballard, Benton, BHRV, Bondurant, Carlisle, Carroll, Chariton, Clear Creek, Creston, DC-G, Decorah, Fairfield, Gilbert, Glenwood, Harlan, Heelan, Humboldt, Indee, Maquoketa, Norwalk, Pella, SB-L, Solon, Spencer, Wahlert, Washington, Webster City, West Delaware, WSR and Xavier all made the dance this year.

Reformatting automatically eliminates HALF of the teams listed above. It seems as though many of the teams who made deep playoff runs this year were senior driven. Who brings back enough of a nucleus/core to dance again in 2016?

Heelan should be very strong with good returners at rb, linebacker and o and d lines. Also have some superb young kids coming up. Their frosh team was lights out and some of those guys will contribute right away. Will need better qb play and offensive play calling to win the title though. They lost their super OC a year ago and it hurt them badly.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Xavier should still be in the thick of things. They'll return Schulte at QB (3A District 4 player of the year as a junior), Rodriguez at FB and 1000+ yard rusher Wilson at tailback. Plus three of the five starting offensive linemen.

On defense they'll have just one starting lineman and one D-back returning - but they've been replacing pretty much the entire defense every year for the past three years. They'll be all right. Plus the sophomore team went undefeated, including a win over Dowling in a weather-shortened game.

 

[FLBP]

2015 District 8 teams will be pretty tough next season. With the district alignment who knows what will happen there but Creston has all their big boys back up front and a few on defense but their defense will be their main question mark. Harlan has some pretty good returning players and well with Tarney and some lineman up front along with a few defensive players. Glenwood has their qb,wr, and some lineman back as well so I would assume those 3 would be some favorites in their respected districts. Pella will be decent but they will take a hit with all their seniors moving on as well as DCG, they lose a lot of defense and some skill positions on offense. Norwalk goes to 4A, Boone has some young kids but just not enough of them as does Atlantic and Winterset. I can't speak for the eastern side of the state but like normal some programs just reload and do not have to rebuild.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Washington.

Return 7 Offensive Starters - 4 Linemen, 2 Receivers and an outstanding runner at Quarterback.

Return 6 Defensive Starters - 2 Linemen but they run a 30 front, 2 Linebackers, and 2 Secondary Players.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

West Delaware - 5 offense / 2 defense

Solon - 5 offense / 5 defense (Heard some say mixing this year's Sophomore/Junior groups could be up there with Solon's best teams.)

Xavier - 5 offense / 3 defense (Very good young groups. Also run the pro-style system from youth to varsity. Next man in for sure.)

 

[cidhawkeye]

West Delaware - 5 offense / 2 defense

Solon - 5 offense / 5 defense (Heard some say mixing this year's Sophomore/Junior groups could be up there with Solon's best teams.)

Xavier - 5 offense / 3 defense (Very good young groups. Also run the pro-style system from youth to varsity. Next man in for sure.)

Haven't seen either of these teams play much but I would be surprised if Solon matches up with the Morris teams, should still be a quarters/semis type team.

Xavier should just reload again and be a semi/final type team.

 

[TLCBF]

Pella

Return 3 or 4 Offensive Starters (depending on formation)- 1 linemen, 2 WR's, and TE (Austin Schulte would have been starter but was replaced due to ACL injury). QB Nick Finney has had some good experience towards the beginning of the season at the position while rotating in with Clayberg as well as after Pella took huge leads on teams.

Return 6 Defensive Starters- 1 NG, 2 OLB, 1 MLB, 2 Corners. Also on certain packages they have a safety who has gotten a handful of reps depending on the game and what the other team's tendencies are.

 

[bigfridaynite]

Pella will be alright next year because the kids playing next year have been practicing against some of the top players in the state everyday for 2 years

 

[cidhawkeye]

Pella will be alright next year because the kids playing next year have been practicing against some of the top players in the state everyday for 2 years

A benefit not always looked at. Teams that play with large leads often times get to play their reserves against other teams starters as well in game action.

 

[Vroom_C14]

Haven't seen either of these teams play much but I would be surprised if Solon matches up with the Morris teams, should still be a quarters/semis type team.

Xavier should just reload again and be a semi/final type team.

Solon is 2A in 2016

 

[makelovenotwar]

Vroom_ is pointing out something important. Where teams play is also a consideration. Making fewer, larger districts is also very important as we are adding at least 1 district game and altering the districts. District 4 is losing Solon and West Dubuque. If they basically dissolve the district and move the teams into other districts where these teams go is going to be crucial. Central DeWitt could move into District 5 while either Xavier or Walhert could get moved into District 3 making a brutal District 3.

 

[Vroom_C14]

Vroom_ is pointing out something important. Where teams play is also a consideration. Making fewer, larger districts is also very important as we are adding at least 1 district game and altering the districts. District 4 is losing Solon and West Dubuque. If they basically dissolve the district and move the teams into other districts where these teams go is going to be crucial. Central DeWitt could move into District 5 while either Xavier or Walhert could get moved into District 3 making a brutal District 3.

Norwalk will more than likely move up as they are the line for the top 48.

CPU would take Solon's spot more than likely in the district along with South Tama possibly taking West Dub place. Spirit Lake, Iowa Falls Alden should all move up at the next "56" count.

Solon would be tied with Gilbert for largest 2A at 314.

 

[paxregis]

Not sure if Norwalk will be moving up to 4A with Westrrn Dubuque. Iowa City Liberty opens in 2017. The Association may slot them into a district and play with just 47 4A schools in 2016.

 

[IOU1]

Interesting discussion on the schools moving up/down...obviously will have a huge impact on 2016. The teams that I am most familiar with are from District 3. West Delaware will be down...lose QB, RB, and WR. Bring back a stud at TE. Lower levels are OK but not great.
Indee will loses Holt and take a step back.
Decorah will be the team to beat. Came on late this year and have really good lower level kids coming thru right now.
WSR will be interesting to watch...lose a great senior group of skill kids/leaders but bring back majority of O and D Lines...good sophomore class coming up.

 

[RoundMound1]

Norwalk will more than likely move up as they are the line for the top 48.

CPU would take Solon's spot more than likely in the district along with South Tama possibly taking West Dub place. Spirit Lake, Iowa Falls Alden should all move up at the next "56" count.

Solon would be tied with Gilbert for largest 2A at 314.

This is speculative and based on this year's numbers for Winter sports (last year's BEDS numbers) which won't be the same used for football. Does anybody know about these and other 3A's that may be dropping down in numbers? Any 2A's that are gaining numbers to move up to 3A? I have only heard that Solon's numbers are down and Williamsburg's are up. I have also heard that there will be 47 in 4A next year and 48 in 2017 when Liberty starts football which likely puts W Dub up and Norwalk stays put.

 

[PNation]

Personally I would like to see them go with 40 in 4A, North Scott and Lewis Central would be strong 3A teams, but I don't know if any other of the 4A teams moving down would be that strong, but it would be more of a level playing field form many of them.

Maybe even

4A-40
3A-48
2A- 56
1A-56
A- Remanding 11 player
8 Man

This would be more similar to what the girls are doing

 

[KidSilverhair]

Personally I would like to see them go with 40 in 4A, North Scott and Lewis Central would be strong 3A teams, but I don't know if any other of the 4A teams moving down would be that strong, but it would be more of a level playing field form many of them.

Maybe even

4A-40
3A-48
2A- 56
1A-56
A- Remanding 11 player
8 Man

This would be more similar to what the girls are doing

While this is never happening, I kind of like this idea. Based on the most recent BEDS, Indianola, Burlington and Davenport North would be the final three teams by enrollment in 4A. You could do five 8-team districts, but those would be pretty spread out. Top three from each district plus one wild card for the playoffs.

The largest 3A schools would then be Clinton, Mason City and Waterloo East. With the addition of Iowa City Liberty, I guess that moves Davenport North to 3A. Six 8-team districts, top two plus four wild cards.

The bottom of 3A would be ADM, West Delaware and Bondurant-Farrar (with B-F moving to 2A when Liberty pushes everyone down a spot). Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Benton Community and Algona would become the largest 2A schools.

Again, the state isn't doing this, but it's an interesting thought experiment.

 

[Vroom_C14]

This is speculative and based on this year's numbers for Winter sports (last year's BEDS numbers) which won't be the same used for football. Does anybody know about these and other 3A's that may be dropping down in numbers? Any 2A's that are gaining numbers to move up to 3A? I have only heard that Solon's numbers are down and Williamsburg's are up. I have also heard that there will be 47 in 4A next year and 48 in 2017 when Liberty starts football which likely puts W Dub up and Norwalk stays put.

Solon's numbers are down, CPU\SouthTama #s are up.

 

[paxregis]

The best available information to estimate BEDS for next cycle is enrollment in grades 8-10 from 2014-15. That would be close to each schools grade 9-11 information gathered this fall, but not made public yet. Using those numbers, the bottom five 4A & top 3A teams would be:
Mason City - 804
Des Moines Hoover - 784
Western Dubuque - 739
Lewis Central - 730
North Scott - 700
----------------------------------
Newton - 653
Norwalk - 611
Cedar Rapids Xavier - 604
Dallas Center-Grimes - 565
Oskaloosa - 565

At the other end, the bottom five 3A & top 2A teams would be:
(tie) Gilbert & South Tama - 330
North Polk - 325
Crestwood - 321
Center Point-Urbana - 319
Spirit Lake - 319
----------------------------------
Saydel - 314
Solon - 310
West Liberty - 306
Algona - 305
Union - 304

 

[cidhawkeye]

If West Liberty keeps 'losing' kids to West Branch they should be solid in 2A

 

[KidSilverhair]

I find it tough to believe Xavier would increase that much (from 541 to 604). I haven't done the math, though.

One element to remember is a not-insignificant number of parochial middle schoolers (Regis-LaSalle-St. Joes) end up going to public high school instead of Xavier. That may affect these estimates.

Interesting with those estimates, though - if they hold true it would appear 4A could get back to 48 without scrapping the 700 BEDS number (adding Western Dubuque and Liberty). My guess is they'd get rid of that arbitrary 700 limit anyway, but it's still interesting.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

While this is never happening, I kind of like this idea. Based on the most recent BEDS, Indianola, Burlington and Davenport North would be the final three teams by enrollment in 4A. You could do five 8-team districts, but those would be pretty spread out. Top three from each district plus one wild card for the playoffs.

The largest 3A schools would then be Clinton, Mason City and Waterloo East. With the addition of Iowa City Liberty, I guess that moves Davenport North to 3A. Six 8-team districts, top two plus four wild cards.

The bottom of 3A would be ADM, West Delaware and Bondurant-Farrar (with B-F moving to 2A when Liberty pushes everyone down a spot). Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Benton Community and Algona would become the largest 2A schools.

Again, the state isn't doing this, but it's an interesting thought experiment.

I thought I heard that the waterloo schools are possibly thinking about consolidating and therefore you would only have 1 Waterloo school. So that would take a spot from 4A.

 

[IOU1]

I live in the Cedar Valley and haven't heard that about East and West. Not saying it can't/won't happen at some point, but I don't see it being an issue by the time the next round of re-districting comes around.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I thought I heard that the waterloo schools are possibly thinking about consolidating and therefore you would only have 1 Waterloo school. So that would take a spot from 4A.

Just did a little searching on this topic. Apparently about this time last year the Waterloo district was holding meetings about several possible options to improve technical training/education. One of the three options was to combine East and West into one high school (at Central). It was also said the earliest a bond vote for such changes would have been April of this year, and the earliest of any changes in the high school setup would be 2018.

But I haven't seen any follow up since last November, and there was certainly no school bond vote in Waterloo this spring or summer. Looks like any changes in the city high schools would be years in the future, if at all. I think we can count on Waterloo East and West for the 2016-17 cycle.

 

[Larry76]

The best available information to estimate BEDS for next cycle is enrollment in grades 8-10 from 2014-15. That would be close to each schools grade 9-11 information gathered this fall, but not made public yet. Using those numbers, the bottom five 4A & top 3A teams would be:
Mason City - 804
Des Moines Hoover - 784
Western Dubuque - 739
Lewis Central - 730
North Scott - 700
----------------------------------
Newton - 653
Norwalk - 611
Cedar Rapids Xavier - 604
Dallas Center-Grimes - 565
Oskaloosa - 565

At the other end, the bottom five 3A & top 2A teams would be:
(tie) Gilbert & South Tama - 330
North Polk - 325
Crestwood - 321
Center Point-Urbana - 319
Spirit Lake - 319
----------------------------------
Saydel - 314
Solon - 310
West Liberty - 306
Algona - 305
Union - 304

Assumption is at the bottom of 3A also with 336 kids

 

[DavenportHawk8]

Just did a little searching on this topic. Apparently about this time last year the Waterloo district was holding meetings about several possible options to improve technical training/education. One of the three options was to combine East and West into one high school (at Central). It was also said the earliest a bond vote for such changes would have been April of this year, and the earliest of any changes in the high school setup would be 2018.

But I haven't seen any follow up since last November, and there was certainly no school bond vote in Waterloo this spring or summer. Looks like any changes in the city high schools would be years in the future, if at all. I think we can count on Waterloo East and West for the 2016-17 cycle.

Yeah I talked to a relative just a little bit ago and they said that there have been informational meetings regarding this issue, but nothing will be done this year.
Sounds like its gaining steam and could be possible. I guess both schools are operating at about 50-60% and their sports teams, well you see the results.

Should be interesting, I think if they join it will make them more competitive in football, not so sure on other sports.