Husky what’s the Milton path looking like?
- Thread starter HONKifUvCOACHED4BAMA
- Start date
Everything is pretty much pointing right at Tampa at the moment. But Milton is a smaller more compact storm and that can make their path a little more erratic. Charlie in 2004 made a big surprise turn early partially because he was a small hurricane.
Going to be a massive evacuation it looks like though. He’s already a cat 5, so headlines and news will be insane. Being a small compact storm both allows him to strengthen super fast like he has, but also makes him vulnerable to being disrupted more quickly if environmental conditions become less favorable closer to land.
My best guess is he comes in as a mid Cat 3 near or just north of Tampa.
Going to be a massive evacuation it looks like though. He’s already a cat 5, so headlines and news will be insane. Being a small compact storm both allows him to strengthen super fast like he has, but also makes him vulnerable to being disrupted more quickly if environmental conditions become less favorable closer to land.
My best guess is he comes in as a mid Cat 3 near or just north of Tampa.
Track has it going right up I-4 which hits a lot of folks.
Hoping it drops intensity but…yeah. Sucks.
As of a few hours it was up to a cat5, pressure @925 mb. Maybe wind sheer knocks it down a bit before landfall?
911 and still falling now. Lowest pressure observed in the Gulf of Mexico since Rita in 2005. May make a run at lowest pressure recorded on a gulf storm.
Models try to have it pull some dry air in from the approaching front and increase the shear before landfall. That should decrease intensity some before coming ashore.
One other concern is if he goes through an eyewall replacement cycle. This will cause temporary weakening, but can cause the eye to become much larger once the cycle is complete which can cause a larger wind field.
Best case scenario would be a combo of shear/dry air getting pulled in right as it starts an ERC.
The ERC is what concerns me. We prepositioned assets east of Sarasota to respond quickly. Disaster response resources are already stretched thin.
911mb is some serious shit. Andrew was 922 when it first made landfall in 92. Crossed Florida and made second landfall in Louisiana.
Latest says it’s going to weaken but coming down from a cat 5 it will be a larger storm.
This is what Helene did as well and part of why that bitch was so damn big.
Unfortunately, lots of debris truck owners are sitting things out, at least for right now.
It’ll weaken when it gets out of deeper gulf waters onto the Florida shelf….. but how huge does it get by the time it hits the shelf ??It’s a real mess.
Latest. This thing may not weaken after all.
Who the eff knows
yeah that's not what we want. Let's pray something chops this monster down before it hits FL.
Central Florida looks like it’s about to take a beating. Hope it doesn’t turn up once it hits land and head to Savannah/Charleston. In Charleston until Thursday for work.It’s a real mess.
Latest. This thing may not weaken after all.
Fishing story...
I was at AU. Folks had a place in Gulf Shores. I had a little boat on a college budget and a couple of us were going to go to Gulf Shores to fish for a few days. Big hurricane came thru (cant remember which one, it was the late 80s) a couple days before we were going to go fishing. We knew the water would be all screwed up but said screw it, lets go anyway. Loaded in at Alabama Point and the gulf looked like churned up, dirty ass lake water... we didn't have much confidence.
We started right outside the jetties and instantly started catching the sh@t out of them. The hurricane had blow a ton of usually deep water fish inshore. No sh@t we were catching gag grouper, snapper and some amberjack in freakin' 6' of water. I saw kids catching grouper in the breakers on the beach. It lasted for about 3 days before they headed back out to deep water. We would load the boat with fish and give tons of them to people waiting on the concrete wall by the bridge. I ate fish tacos until I was sick of fish tacos.
I was at AU. Folks had a place in Gulf Shores. I had a little boat on a college budget and a couple of us were going to go to Gulf Shores to fish for a few days. Big hurricane came thru (cant remember which one, it was the late 80s) a couple days before we were going to go fishing. We knew the water would be all screwed up but said screw it, lets go anyway. Loaded in at Alabama Point and the gulf looked like churned up, dirty ass lake water... we didn't have much confidence.
We started right outside the jetties and instantly started catching the sh@t out of them. The hurricane had blow a ton of usually deep water fish inshore. No sh@t we were catching gag grouper, snapper and some amberjack in freakin' 6' of water. I saw kids catching grouper in the breakers on the beach. It lasted for about 3 days before they headed back out to deep water. We would load the boat with fish and give tons of them to people waiting on the concrete wall by the bridge. I ate fish tacos until I was sick of fish tacos.
Last edited:
I have one sister in Lutz outside Tampa and another in Apopka outside of Orlando. This has the potential to suck.
The combination of an ERC overnight and probably the proximity to the Yucatán has caused some disruption this morning. He has some dry air issues at the moment and isn’t perfectly symmetrical anymore.
As he pulls away from the Yucatán he’ll cross over the loop current in the gulf, which has the deepest and most ocean heat content in the GOM. If he can shake the dry air he’ll probably bounce right back to a cat 5 later today/tonight. Lot of the models show it strengthening later today, then ingesting a lot of dry air and weakening quite a bit tomorrow evening before landfall.
As he pulls away from the Yucatán he’ll cross over the loop current in the gulf, which has the deepest and most ocean heat content in the GOM. If he can shake the dry air he’ll probably bounce right back to a cat 5 later today/tonight. Lot of the models show it strengthening later today, then ingesting a lot of dry air and weakening quite a bit tomorrow evening before landfall.
I have a couple friends hauling relief supplies into the affected areas. The little towns half washed away. I’ve seen some pics that are pretty awful. They say the pics don’t come close to showing how bad it is.
Apparently Asheville is semi-normal with lots of residual damage and sporadic availability for food, etc since retail and supply chain are fooked in the area. Is what you see better or worse?
The areas I've been in are bad, but I was brought in specifically to look at the logistics of how to start getting debris cleaned up. Things are running, but the food scarcity is correct. Food trucks and donation stations seem to be best options. It's definitely 3rd world bad close to the rivers.
That's the key, if some logistics can be restored they can get utilities, etc online, some retail restored, etc. If Asheville can get somewhat back to normal it will help a lot with supporting the surrounding areas while they pick up the pieces.
I forget where my friend was headed this morning. It was one of the river communities that was half washed away. Apocalyptic is the only word he could find to describe.
Similar threads
