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Hillboy's Ultimate 8-Player Playoffs Preview Extravaganza

hillboy20

Freshman
Oct 8, 2010
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5
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There doesn't seem to be anyone here that talks about this class of football but I'm going to post this anyway! Be warned, the only reason I made this thread is to dunk on Fremont-Mills.

At-Large at 1st Place​
Winfield-Mount Union (6-3) at Don Bosco, Gilbertville (7-0)
This is an interesting match-up due to Cam Buffington (current Iowa commit) playing for the underdog. That said, they got spanked by WACO two weeks ago and I expect the Dons to do the same (minus pitching a shutout).

Bedford (5-3) at West Harrison (8-0)
The state should be ashamed of themselves for making West Harrison a top 2 seed. Remsen St. Mary's, WACO, and Lenox are far more deserving of getting the honor. Bedford is better than the teams those three will be playing so they actually got lucky. BCMoore has Bedford rated as the 10th best team, one spot better than West Harrison. My own personal power rankings (that need a little fine tuning) projects Bedford winning by 16 points. Long story short, don't be surprised if Bedford wins.
3rd Place at 1st Place​
BGM, Brooklyn (6-2) at Easton Valley (6-1)
Easton Valley would be unbeaten if their starting QB wouldn't have been injured in the first game of the season against Don Bosco. He hasn't played since and I assume he won't be pulling a Willis Reed. Their starting RB didn't play last week so they could be vulnerable if he is out again. Their opponent leads the state in scoring (and my adjusted scoring ranking as well). BGM lost both games they played against non-bad teams (Baxter and Montezuma) but they were shootouts that went down to the wire. The game has potential to be interesting but Easton Valley should win even if their starting RB doesn't play.

Kingsley-Pierson (4-4) at GTRA (7-1)
A rematch from week 1 which GTRA won 40-38. What was the point of ditching brackets if you are going to schedule rematches? It's not fair to either team. Set up neutral field games if traveling is an issue.

Colo-Nesco (4-4) at Lenox (8-0)
Should be the biggest beatdown of the playoffs. Nothing else to say.

Iowa Valley (6-3) at Montezuma (7-2)
A rematch from week 0 which Iowa Valley won 36-33. Again, not a fan of rematches like this.

East Mills (6-2) at Southeast Warren (8-1)
This might be the most interesting game on the docket. East Mills held leads against similar physical, run first teams (Lenox and F-M) but gagged it away. Can they finally put it all together? I think they do.

Audubon (4-5) at St. Mary’s, Remsen (8-0)
I'd be pissed if I was Audubon. Why does the state keep pairing these teams up in the playoffs? No one is going to come close to beating Remsen St. Mary's anyway. I hate them but this is an all-time team. Print the shirts.

Edgewood-Colesburg (4-3) at Turkey Valley (6-1)
E-C's reward for "upsetting" Midland in the final game of the regular season is a rematch with Turkey Valley. Third verse, same as the first.

Martensdale-St. Marys (4-4) at WACO, Wayland (9-0)
WACO is the king of sandbagging so the final score might not represent how big of a beatdown this will be. I will say this, their QB needs to be much better if they want to reach their goal. He has thrown very poorly going by their the last few boxscores.
3rd Place at 2nd Place (Host By Point Differential)​
Harris-Lake Park (6-2) at Newell-Fonda (7-1)
Two teams I would like to throw into the ocean for beating my F-M Knights in the Dome. The teams have four common opponents this year with the big outlier result being their respective matchups with West Bend-Mallard. N-F took it 28-14 in week 1 while H-LP got spanked 48-6 in week 7. I don't know what that means. It should be a good game.

Clarksville (5-3) at West Bend-Mallard (6-2)
Clarksville is an interesting team. They went from 1-8 to a playoff team and could be a preseason top-10 team next year. They have a fighting chance but WB-M should take this.
2nd Place at 2nd Place (Host By Point Differential)​
Baxter (7-1) at CAM, Anita (6-2)
A classic matchup with a team that played a very weak schedule (Baxter) and one that played a tough one (CAM). The defending champs are playing their best ball and I expect them to roll.

Moravia (7-2) at Fremont-Mills (6-2)
Here we go. This post is not about how pathetic F-M looked against Lenox. They look like that every time they play a team that can tackle because this offensive scheme is garbage. Actually, it's an insult to garbage to compare the two. It's almost as bad as Iowa's offense. Your whole scheme can't be "run straight at your opponent until they quit". Only bad and mediocre teams fold. We've been running this junk since 2017 and the only time it worked was the back half of 2018 when the QB started carrying the ball more. This scheme has no shot of being successful without a true dual threat QB at the helm. Reed is a no-threat QB right now. It's not all his fault though. Where are the easy completions? Not every pass has to go 10 yards through the air. Not to mention he can hardly hand the ball off thanks to the center shooting the snap all over the place. It makes no sense to be in shotgun on every single play anyway. You play with a slow tempo, hardly pass, and barely run spread option. Another thing that makes no sense is having your best lineman play OT/TE. I love the idea of the base offense having 4 lineman but I want to throw my shoe every time the best blocker on the team lines up as a receiver or is not even on the field. Unless you count that as changing the offense, this is by far the longest we've gone without a major change. I just don't get it. We've got great coaches with a history of adapting their offense to fit their personnel but they have been trying to shove a round peg into a square hole for years. It's past time to set this playbook aflame.

That's more than enough bitching; I prefer promoting solutions. F-M should run Wild Cat/Thug/Whatever-they-call-their-direct-snap-formation-now every play with Madison running the show. Get Blackburn and Van Houten involved with sweeps and zone read and BOOM, you are no longer incredibly predictable. They probably can't do this due to the previously mentioned snap issues. The next best solution would be run the same plays but from under center. That fixes the snap problem, fits the chosen style of play better, and greatly increases the effectiveness of play action. Neither of my solutions will happen, but a man can dream. All that said, we should still be able to run over the top of Moravia. They are the kind of team this offense works well against. They could make it a high scoring affair though. F-M was torched by teams that can't pass half as well as Moravia does.

New London (6-3) at Gladbrook-Reinbeck (7-1)
Gladbrook-Reinbeck hasn't been able to recreate the successes they had in 11-man but this could be their best team since dropping down. I'm rooting for them since New London is another team that beat F-M in the Dome.

Central City (7-1) at Tripoli (6-2)
Another very interesting matchup. I assume Tripoli's QB is the brother of the dude that broke the 1A state 100 meter record last spring so you know they got speed. Central City has had a similar turnaround as Clarksville but they are better. I think Central City gets it done in a game that will come down to the wire. Watch out for them next year.

So that's Hillboy's half-assed ultimate preview of the 1st round of the playoffs. No one is stopping Remsen St. Mary's, rematches are bollocks, and F-M's offense makes me sad/mad. Feel free to agree, disagree, or call me a fool. Hopefully, no one from Tabor/Randolf/Thurman/Bartlett gets too mad at me.
 
Hillboy - that post is gold!

In regards to West Harrison, I hope they can win a few. The two Evans kids (not related to each other) are really talented. At least one of them will be playing DI in something. They have a few other kids that are good, but depth is definitely an issue. This is the school’s first time in the playoffs…..ever, so pretty cool for them.
 
Recapping round 1.

At-Large at 1st Place​
Don Bosco over Winfield-Mount Union 48-18
Cam Buffington scored 3 times in the first half but the Dons shut W-MU out in the 2nd half. I'm sure W-MU will get tons of preseason hype next year but I'm going to throw some cold water on them. They have top of the line talent but no depth. They also need much better QB play if they want to keep Buffington at RB.

West Harrison over Bedford 29-27
This was a close game all the way through. Holding Bedford off despite losing the turnover battle 3-1 took some grit. The community should be proud of what this group of kids has done. Back in my day, this school had one of the worst athletic programs in the state. Now they are contenders in every sport.

3rd Place at 1st Place​
Easton Valley over BGM 40-34
I said Easton Valley would win even if Charlie Simpson didn't play. That was wrong as they needed all over his nearly 300 total yards, 5 TDs, and 10 tackles. They had to find another QB after Felkey went down making a tackle on the first drive of the game. This poor team is snake bitten.

GTRA over Kingsley-Pierson 50-34
GTRA took both matchups on the year; this one a hair more convincing than the last one.

Lenox over Colo-Nesco 66-14
Nothing to say.

Montezuma over Iowa Valley 44-42
Montezuma blew a 15 point 4th quarter lead but hit a 46 yard field goal with less than 30 seconds left to get the win.

Southeast Warren over East Mills 38-32
Southeast Warren got the winning score on a double reverse pass with 50 seconds left in the game. East Mills' starting QB was out but their RB stepped up and threw for 5 TDs.

St. Mary’s, Remsen over Audubon 76-0
Nothing to say.

Turkey Valley over Edgewood-Colesburg 71-42
This was the highest scoring affair in the first round. E-C was still in it until 4th when Turkey Valley started pulling away.

WACO over Martensdale-St. Marys 57-14
WACO scored 35 in the 1st quarter, 15 in the 2nd, and 7 in the 3rd. This is the sign of a great team with players and a coach that don't give a fat rat's ass about padding stats. I really like this team.

Newell-Fonda over Harris-Lake Park 55-26
This was a close game in the 1st half but N-F took it to H-LP in the 2nd half.

West Bend-Mallard over Clarksville 48-0
Clarksville hasn't put their stats in but this is what happens when you turn the ball over 5 times. I'm still interested in how they do next year.

2nd Place at 2nd Place (Host By Point Differential)​

CAM over Baxter 58-38
This game was far closer than the final score. I watched this on the NFHS Network and it nearly blew off my eyebrows off. CAM had no shot of slowing Baxter down and Baxter was well Baxter. The Bolts' defense actually outperformed CAM's until the 4th quarter. If CAM hadn't knocked out Baxter's dynamo QB and RB, I think Baxter would have held onto the lead.

Fremont-Mills over Moravia 44-38
I said F-M's offensive scheme works well against teams like Moravia. The 30-12 halftime score was indicative of that. But Moravia didn't fold like I thought they would. They switched up their defense and completely shut down F-M in the 2nd half. That's even more evidence that their offensive scheme is a disaster. I listened to this game via KMA and the commentators brought up a few of the things I mentioned in my other post. They said Reed should go under center after a terrible snap and they were completely dumbfounded when Sam Daly (5'10, 245 pounds) lined up outside as a receiver. After the game, Ernster was asked about his QB's performance (3/9, 41 yards, 3 TDs, and 2INTs) and he said didn't know why people think we can't throw but like the next sentence, he said we should have had 4 more passing TDs. The inability to hit wide-ass open receivers is why you got housed by Lenox and why you nearly lost to a team you should have put the running clock on. I'm not the only one seeing this as one of the coaches launched their clipboard after Reed bonked up an easy TD pass. I want to re-iterate, Reed's struggles aren't all on him. He hasn't played QB since he was a freshman on JV and even then he was taking more snaps as a TE.

I should give Moravia more credit but I don't want to. F-M's secondary has gotten torched every game. I will say they are a team to watch out for next year.

Gladbrook-Reinbeck over New London
I expected this to be a close game but Gladrook-Reinbeck really took it to New London after the 1st quarter.

Central City over Tripoli 46-26
This was the only game which the road team won. It looks like the turnovers delivered the victory to Central City as they won the margin 3-1.

Now to round 2. Pods are trash. I approve the ditching of regular brackets but if you want to get weird, get weird. Just make individual matchups all the way through.

Pod A​
West Bend-Mallard (7-2) at St. Mary’s, Remsen (9-0)
WB-M is a tough team but this is going to be a whooping. BCMoore projects a 33 point win but I would be very surprised if the running clock wasn't going in the 2nd quarter.

Graettinger-Terril/Ruthven-Ayrshire (8-1) at West Harrison (9-0)
I'm torn on this one. I don't think West Harrison is particularly good but GTRA isn't doing anything for me. They have given up over 30 points for 4 straight weeks (I'm sure some of these scores were on back-ups but it still ain't good). BCMoore says this one is a tossup with GTRA a slight favorite.

Pod B​
CAM, Anita (7-2) at Lenox (9-0)
This is the number 1 game according to BCMoore despite projecting Lenox will win by 16 points. I think Lenox will get it done but I don't have a whole lot of confidence in them.

Fremont-Mills (7-2) at Southeast Warren (9-1)
If I don't have a lot of confidence in Lenox, then I have zero in F-M. I don't care that BCMoore favors F-M. Their ranking is inflated due to the 32 point win over Bedford. Their offense was completely shut down by Moravia's mediocre (at best) defense. Southeast Warren will easily do the same thing if F-M can't pass on 1st down. It's the only way to re-open run lanes. Doing it once or twice all year tells me they won't be able to do it this week. Don't be surprised if Southeast Warren easily takes this one.

Pod C​
Newell-Fonda (8-1) at Don Bosco, Gilbertville (8-0)
This game will show us how far above the field Remsen St. Mary's is. They crushed N-F 61-13.

Gladbrook-Reinbeck (8-1) at Turkey Valley (7-1)
BCMoore is not high on either team as they are ranked 10 and 19 respectively. If we judge them by how well they hung with the Dons, then G-R should take this one fairly easily.

Pod D​
Easton Valley (7-1) at Montezuma (8-2)
This is projected to be the biggest beat down this round. It probably won't due to all the injuries Easton Valley has to deal with. This game could go either way if Felkey can't go.

Central City (8-1) at WACO, Wayland (10-0)
Central City's rise is one the better stories of the year but not every story has a great ending. This is where their ride ends.
 
RSM over WBM
GTRA over West Harrison
Lenox over CAM
FM over SEW
NF over Don Bosco
GR over Turkey Valley
Easton Valley over Montezuma
Waco over Central City

I used to post on here a lot before my kids started playing and decided I probably needed to stay off of here, well that and I’m getting old. I agree with Hillboy about RSM but I didn’t think anyone could come close to beating CAM last year either. Some teams just match up better than others so maybe there is one out there that can beat RSM. Good luck to all the teams and Go Tigers!
 
Recapping last week's results.
Pod A​
St. Mary’s, Remsen over West Bend-Mallard 42-16
RSM could have set the score but chose to grind it out by running the ball 45 times. They are one of the few teams that makes me wonder why they don't pass more often.

Graettinger-Terril/Ruthven-Ayrshire over West Harrison 28-12
West Harrison had the chance to take the lead just before the half but they threw an interception in the end zone. They beat Bedford the previous week despite losing the turnover battle 3-1 but they gave themselves no shot in this game turning the ball over 5 times. GTRA only scoring 28 points doesn't make me think highly of them.

Pod B​
Lenox over CAM 34-14
The game was over by the CAM finally got on the board. Lenox's improved defense made the game a laugher.

Fremont-Mills over Southeast Warren 30-28
My Knights built another insurmountable lead (30-12 this time) and then nearly choked it away again. I'm not going to kill them again though. The offense was better despite what the numbers say. Reed had a very impressive run and he didn't turn the ball over. Snaps were an issue again (all three to Madison were over his head) and Daly inexplicably was running routes 10 yards down field but I still consider what I saw a step forward. Oh, and Thornton deserves a major shoutout. F-M loses without his acrobatic TD catch and him breaking up a pass that would have put SEW inside the 5 very late in the 4th.

Pod C​
Newell-Fonda over Don Bosco, Gilbertville 35-10
The Dons were up 10-0 at half. I don't know what happened in the 2nd half but I'm guessing that's when they turned the ball over 4 times. N-F totally shut down the Dons' run game holding their leading rusher to 25 yds on 14 carries. The Dons had the worst o-line on an unbeaten team I had ever when my Knights beat them a few years ago and it seems they weren't able to rectify the situation.

Gladbrook-Reinbeck over Turkey Valley 30-28
Both teams scored four times but G-R converted one more 2pt conversion.

Pod D​
Montezuma over Easton Valley 60-38
When I saw Easton Valley had lost, I rushed over to the Youtube channel that streams their games to see what the heck happened. They came blasting out of the gates and led 30-7 after the 1st quarter. My guess was Simpson must've gotten knocked out of the game after that but nope, he played the whole game. What happened? Montezuma sort of stiffened up and kept chucking it deep while Easton Valley's coaches did everything in their power to lose. 32 carries is quite a bit for a RB that has had injuries but throwing the ball 26 times with your 3rd or 4th string QB is so incredibly dumb. They got nothing from the pass game but kept going to it. Their defensive plan was even dumber. Montezuma's QB was only 13/35 but he ended up with 7 TD passes. You think they would have adjusted after giving up a few bombs but they just kept setting their DBs up to fail. It sucks that injuries and poor coaching derailed what should have been another Dome team for Easton Valley.

WACO over Central City 48-12
WACO did what WACO does.

Now to the preview of tomorrow's games.
Pod A​
Graettinger-Terril/Ruthven-Ayrshire (9-1) at St. Mary’s, Remsen (10-0)
GTRA has a decent QB but this will be another beatdown from RSM.

Pod B​
Fremont-Mills (8-2) at Lenox (10-0)
I swear I was going to make a post saying these teams would rematch about 10 minutes before kickoff but didn't want to jinx it. The 1st game was a beatdown but don't be surprised if F-M makes it interesting. I believe we are 8-1 in rematches since 2010. The only loss was last year against CAM which we were leading at halftime. Lenox should win but you never know what could happen. For the love of God, don't send Daly on any routes and get Madison involved in the offense besides the Wildcat.

Pod C​
Gladbrook-Reinbeck (9-1) at Newell-Fonda (9-1)
N-F should win if we judge both teams by their games against Don Bosco.

Pod D​
Montezuma (9-2) at WACO, Wayland (11-0)
Is WACO on upset alert? Nah. Montezuma might get 2 or 3 TDs but this won't be a repeat of last week's shocker.
 
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Recap of the quarterfinals. Sorry I couldn't get gotten it out sooner.

Pod A​
St. Mary’s, Remsen over Graettinger-Terril/Ruthven-Ayrshire 62-14
GTRA only punted once so they must've moved the ball a little better than I thought they would. Still a beating though.

Pod B​
Lenox over Fremont-Mills 32-8
Congrats to Lenox for making it to the Dome for the first time since 2010 and thanks for saving F-M from another embarrassing loss from RSM.

Now to give the people what they want: this was the worst FM offense ever. We have a history of terrible football teams pre-2010 but that was due to lack of talent. This team didn't have that problem. Six of the starters on this team also started on the team that Seth Malcom dragged to finals. They should have averaged 60 points per game even with the tough schedule they had. I don't need to rehash how nonsensical the offensive scheme is but there was something I failed to mention earlier: Blackburn and Payten Van Houten were rarely on the field at the same time. That's as inexcusable as having Daly running routes. Alright, I can't help it. I need to pump more lead into the dead horse. The origins of the hybrid TE/OT lies in the tape study leading to F-M's playoff game against Coon Rapids-Bayard in 2019. Josue Ramirez (6'3, 240) had a 64 yard td catch and run that spurred their comeback win over CAM and F-M thinks Cooper Langfelt (6'3, 265) could do the same thing. Here's the problem: Ramirez's catch was a 5-yard out on a broken play, it was only his 3rd catch of the year, and (most damning) his one catch against us was only 5 yards. We also won that game 22-6 with Seth Malcom hardly playing due getting his knee torn up. The positives of having 4 linemen were tossed out the window when you had one of them running deep routes or not even on the field. I said the playbook should be set aflame but it deserves more punishment than that. Throw it into the depths of Green Hollow so the forces of evil can drag it hell.

Now it's time discuss the mishandling of the QB situation without kid gloves on. The sign to make the switch to Madison occurred in the 1st game and it couldn't have been more obvious. Reed got an unsportsmanlike penalty for flexing and running his yap after a 9 yard run so he was swapped out with Madison for a few plays. What happened? Madison started ripping off 10+ yard runs without making a peep. Reed's incredibly poor performance (3/13, 0 TDs, 3 INTs) combined with Madison leading the team in rushing had me expecting a new starter in the next game. What happened? Madison barely played and wasn't even the QB when the back-ups were sent out. He wasn't given the opportunity to pass until the final game after their fate was sealed. BTW, he went 3/3. We had a QB competition back in 2013 which was ended when Sam Phillips threw a pick against Whiting who ended up going went winless. What exactly is the difference between then and now? I can only think of a few: the coaches decided to stubbornly stay the course, play seniority/favorites, or appease the egos of players/parents. There is no real excuse for how this all played out. I mean Reed threw 12 INTs on 95 passes; we threw 13 INTs on 346 passes in our first four seasons upon returning to 8-player.

One more paragraph. This one is to predict what F-M's offense looks like next year. I think they run the nonsense back again. Forney takes over at QB, Blackburn and Madison will be the RBs that rarely are on the field at the same time, and the TE/OT be Marvel.

Pod C​
Newell-Fonda over Gladbrook-Reinbeck 46-36
G-R exploded for 28 points in 4th making the game seem closer than it was. Sidenote, G-R should be a preseason top 5 team next year.

Pod D​
WACO, Wayland over Montezuma 52-7
It was 14-7 after the 1st but WACO bulldozed Montezuma after that.

Semifinal preview time.

1:00—Newell-Fonda (10-1) vs. WACO, Wayland (12-0)
N-F is a solid team but I have WACO. It won't be the 61-13 drubbing RSM put on N-F but I expect WACO to methodically wear them down and pull away late.

4:00—Lenox (11-0) vs. St. Mary’s, Remsen (11-0)
Lenox only averaged 2.4 yds per carry in their quarterfinal win and they now face what might be the best 8-player defense ever. If their receivers don't get as open as they did against F-M, the game will be over quick. Let's say they do. You then have to stop the best QB and WR in the class. I do not see that happening. It would be surprising if RSM doesn't put the running clock on Lenox.
 
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Appreciate your efforts. I personally don't see how RSM doesn't 3 score+ win the next two games like they have all year.
 
Great breakdown. Does WACO have the ability to stop Remsen? WACO is going to have to dominate time of possession to have a chance. Assuming the beat NF.
 
RSM won by 3 scores last week, more this week.
I was at both games last week and I feel like this championship game could be running clock sometime in the 3rd quarter. I know RSM won by 3 scores in the end but it was a much closer game than that. Penalties and missed opportunities deep in the redzone cost Lenox.
 
Semi-final recap.

WACO over Newell-Fonda 29-21
I almost puked when Reichenbach blew his knee out. That was WACO's 2nd player to do so and I thought N-F would dominate afterwards. WACO bowed up without them and then Reichenbach returned in the 2nd half and led them to victory. He was better in the 2nd half somehow and nearly kicked a 53-yard field goal. The kid is a beast. I did think N-F was going to grab victory from the jaws of defeat though. WACO was still throwing the ball when trying to ice the game (aka the Kellen Moore). They struggled running the ball for the most part but cmon honey, you can't keep chucking the ball if you want to close down a game. Luckily for the coaches, their d-line stepped up on N-F's final chance with the ball.

St. Mary’s, Remsen over Lenox 42-20
This game was much closer than the final score. Lenox and the Funky bunch had plenty of opportunities to pull this one out. You have to make every play if you want to pull an upset and they just couldn't do it. Getting stuffed multiple times in the redzone was the killer. In this humble genius' opinion, this was the most compelling game of the semi-finals behind the Valley/Dowling game. Lenox's performance even had me feeling slightly bad about dunking on F-M so hard. Not bad enough to take it back though, our offensive scheme is absolute bollocks.

Now for the finals preview.

9:30— WACO (13-0) vs. St. Mary’s, Remsen (12-0)
I said beforehand that RSM would run right through everybody but Lenox showed they are not unbeatable. Can WACO get it done though? I don't think so. They fact they couldn't get the run game going and didn't fair well defending the pass against a team RSM dominated has me worried they could get smashed. One area WACO should have an advantage is their d-line against RSM's o-line. They got 8 sacks against N-F and Lenox showed RSM's line is by far their weakest link. Lenox also beat the hell out of RSM's key players so maybe they will still be dinged up. On the other hand, who knows if Reichenbach's knee will be alright to go again. All-in-all, I'm leaning towards RSM putting the running clock on. Their 6'5 receiver is unstoppable and I don't think WACO's QB will be able to recreate what Funk did for Lenox. I'd love to be wrong though.
 
St. Mary’s, Remsen over WACO 38-16
It wasn't the biggest blowout of the championship slate but the game was never in doubt. WACO didn't give themselves a chance as they blasted themselves in the foot from the get go. They did put up a better effort after the running clock got going on them though.

Hopefully 2023 gets a more balanced field. It was RSM by themselves, just a couple of good teams, and then various levels of doormats this year. There are a handful of teams that bring back lots of production (CAM, Gladbrook-Reinbeck, Central City, Clarksville, and probably a few others) so maybe it will happen. 2027 though? F-M has got it in the bag.
 
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