Football's equivalent of the Hot Stove League: projected new districts

[SICL Cares]

Just wanted to clear the air here, not sure where Coach Bets is getting his information but it is most definitely false.

 

[Jayhawkin]

With Guthrie Center dropping down, that will surely cause a shake up in districts 6-7 I would think. Geographically, you would think BV and Woodbine will stay in the same district. If that were the case (according to this model) GC would head East with AC in district 6.

 

[SICL Cares]

I would expect District 5 to look the same as it has in year's past with English Valleys being added. Are Guthrie Center and English Valleys the only two schools that have moved? Anyone else up or down?

 

[StayLow6]

Turkey Valley also coming down. Easton Valley and Southwest Valley should be moving up.

 

[Jayhawkin]

I am surprised at the lack of "chatter" about this stuff. Does the schools dropping down (GC, TV, EV, East Mills), at least that have been confirmed to some degree, change anyone's preseason Top 10?

For me, I think that it has little to No impact on the upcoming season. I am unfamiliar with Turkey and English Valley, but I can't envision EM or GC changing the landscape of western Iowa. EHK-E, Glidden, Fremont-Mills will all be heavy favorites again I would assume.

 

[SICL Cares]

I expect English Valleys to be fighting for a third or fourth playoff spot if they enter District 5 like I anticipate them to do. I wouldn't be surprised if they did not make the playoffs next season.

 

[gonorse92]

I am surprised as well about the lack of chatter. I can speak a little about Turkey Valley. They will be solid as stated in some earlier threads. They lose a good group of seniors. Some good talent coming back and the switch has everyone pretty excited. They will need some of next year's sophomores step up and help in spots. They will be okay but making the transition will challenge kids/coaches as well. They have a good coaching staff that has been around and together quite some time which will help. Anymore "confirmed" programs making the switch that people may know about? Is an 8 game regular season schedule on the docket for next season as "rumored"? It is winter sports season but the release of new districts cannot come soon enough.

 

[StormHawk42]

Originally posted by BomberPride1:
Just found out this evening that Guthrie Center will indeed go to 8 man. A team that has some pretty good athletes via the wrestling form. I look for them to compete in any district that they contend in. There was talk that they were going to join AC in football, but that fell through.

I'm curious where you heard that. I'm originally from GC and I hadn't heard anything that drastic. Not saying you're wrong, just curious. In time, A-C and GC will be combined, but that won't happen for a few years yet it sounds like.

This post was edited on 12/9 5:50 PM by StormHawk42

 

[BomberPride1]

Im not really sure how long Guthrie has considered going to 8 man. That I do not know. I do know that we (Im an AC alum) will be very small in numbers the next several years. When I say small on numbers, Im saying we may not have 15 kids out. So joining GC would have been something that was considered. There had been talk around town that it was going to happen the last month or so, but I guess nothing came from it. And you are right, I would imagine that the two schools joining will happen sooner or later, but when I don't know.
AC will be decent next year with Terry, Reha and Wheatley returning. If we play GC, it will be a good matchup, although I don't know much about GC.

 

[Jayhawkin]

Can anyone else confirm or deny their district joining or leaving? I'd love for Paxregis do another "mock district" with the schools who are now confirmed.

 

[paxregis]

Since I put my mock up out in November, I have since found out the Iowa Department of Education had posted revised 2012-13 enrollment numbers. That changed my model quite a bit. Also, someone else pointed out on this topic on another board that several schools gain students from K-8 private schools in their towns. So I went back and redrew everything with the most up-to-date information I have to create a new "best guess" at what districts might look like.



1 73 Clay Central-Everly
1 71 Harris-Lake Park
1 108 Kingsley-Pierson
1 95 Marcus-Meriden-Cleghorn
1 42 Remsen St Mary's
1 93 Remsen-Union
1 77 River Valley
1 47 Whiting

2 53 CAL, Latimer
2 115 GTRA, Graettinger
2 69 Laurens-Marathon
2 103 Newell-Fonda
2 106 North Iowa
2 44 Northeast Hamilton
2 109 Northwood-Kensett
2 88 West Bend-Mallard

3 68 Clarksville
3 114 Dunkerton
3 95 Kee, Lansing
3 69 Riceville
3 113 Rockford
3 104 Tripoli
3 111 Turkey Valley
3 70 West Central, Maynard

4 45 Cedar Valley Christian
4 101 Central, Elkader
4 110 Gilbertville Don Bosco
4 102 GMG, Garwin
4 78 Janesville
4 47 Meskwaki Settlement School
4 96 Midland, Wyoming
4 88 Springville

5 93 Ankeny Christian/Iowa Christian
5 104 Colo NESCO
5 109 English Valleys
5 71 HLV,Victor
5 83 Moravia
5 47 Seymour
5 56 Tri-County
5 95 Twin Cedars

6 68 Adair-Casey
6 98 East Union
6 66 Grandview Park Baptist
6 67 Lamoni
6 55 Melcher-Dallas
6 53 Mormon Trail, Garden Grove
6 81 Murray
6 102 Wayne County

7 48 Ar-We-Va, Westside
7 100 Boyer Valley
7 74 Charter Oak-Ute
7 100 Coon Rapids-Bayard
7 98 Elk Horn-Kimballton/Exira
7 85 Glidden-Ralston
7 118 Guthrie Center
7 94 West Harrison

8 85 CAM, Anita
8 58 Essex
8 104 Fremont-Mills
8 103 Lenox
8 77 Nishnabotna
8 92 Sidney
8 58 Stanton
8 79 Woodbine

This post was edited on 12/27 7:52 PM by paxregis

 

[brewcrewman1]

Great Work but just an FYI...Charter Oak-Ute will not be playing varsity football the next 2 years. They are doing JV only due to a severe numbers issue.

 

[Voicefromthestands]

Just wondering where you are getting your numbers? The girls website has a link to the 2013-2014 School Beds numbers. And these would be the numbers used to determine classifications for the next two years of districts. I looked at your projected District 8 since that is the one I would be most interested in. Here are the numbers and the difference between your and theirs.

CAM 79 -6
Essex 55 -3
F-M 100 -4
Lenox 99 -4
Sidney 78 -14
Stanton 52 -6
Nishna 73 -4
Wood 93 +14

They should all be well within 8 man class. As long as State does not do something stupid like change the cutoff numbers. East Mills is right at the present cut off. They show a BEDS of 116. Will they be able to prove a drop in numbers in 2014-2015 numbers? Or will there be too many other schools with lower numbers entering 8 man? The State is usually willing to work with a school. After all it is better to have them playing varsity football. Rather then dropping football all together.

Another question would be "Where did you put Southwest Valley"? Interested to see if they will be 1A or 2A.

 

[paxregis]

The link on the IGHSAU website is from the IHSAA website for 2012-13 9-11 enrollment used to classify the current school year's sports. The 2013-14 numbers won't be released until mid-January 2014. East Mills likely will have a case for a waiver, The current 8th grade at East Mills is slightly smaller than normal and should put them under for the second year of the cycle. It would actually make forming districts easier if East Mills returns to 8-man. I had placed GMG in 8-man because of their enrollment looking to be below 115 for the forseeable future, but could not find anything that points towards a move. So I think I will flip-flop those two schools and redraw the classes. To answer your other question, Southwest Valley should be solidly in Class 1A.


1 73 Clay Central-Everly
1 71 Harris-Lake Park
1 108 Kingsley-Pierson
1 95 Marcus-Meriden-Cleghorn
1 42 Remsen St Mary's
1 93 Remsen-Union
1 77 River Valley
1 47 Whiting

2 53 CAL, Latimer
2 115 GTRA, Graettinger
2 69 Laurens-Marathon
2 103 Newell-Fonda
2 106 North Iowa
2 44 Northeast Hamilton
2 109 Northwood-Kensett
2 88 West Bend-Mallard

3 68 Clarksville
3 114 Dunkerton
3 95 Kee, Lansing
3 69 Riceville
3 113 Rockford
3 104 Tripoli
3 111 Turkey Valley
3 70 West Central, Maynard

4 45 Cedar Valley Christian
4 101 Central, Elkader
4 104 Colo NESCO
4 110 Gilbertville Don Bosco
4 78 Janesville
4 47 Meskwaki Settlement School
4 96 Midland, Wyoming
4 88 Springville

5 109 English Valleys
5 71 HLV,Victor
5 55 Melcher-Dallas
5 83 Moravia
5 47 Seymour
5 56 Tri-County
5 95 Twin Cedars
5 102 Wayne County

6 68 Adair-Casey
6 93 Ankeny Christian/Iowa Christian
6 98 East Union
6 66 Grandview Park Baptist
6 67 Lamoni
6 103 Lenox
6 53 Mormon Trail, Garden Grove
6 81 Murray

7 48 Ar-We-Va, Westside
7 100 Boyer Valley
7 74 Charter Oak-Ute
7 100 Coon Rapids-Bayard
7 98 Elk Horn-Kimballton/Exira
7 85 Glidden-Ralston
7 118 Guthrie Center
7 94 West Harrison

8 85 CAM, Anita
8 116 East Mills
8 58 Essex
8 104 Fremont-Mills
8 77 Nishnabotna
8 92 Sidney
8 58 Stanton
8 79 Woodbine

 

[Voicefromthestands]

Sorry but they have been released. Just go to the Girls site and you can get them. The State has known the numbers since October. That is when the schools are required to report beds numbers to the State so financing can be figured for each school. And they are the numbers used to set classifications for 2014 to 2015. All the ihsaa does it take the numbers for 9 thru 11 as you stated. School in southwest Iowa have already let their patrons know what enrollment is. Including home schooled students. They know how many they reported . It's not rocket science.

 

[Jayhawkin]

A few interesting tidbits......


1) As someone has stated, I don't think Charter Oak-Ute will be fielding a team this season.

2) I am curious as how teams above the 115 mark can "legitimately" (I use that term loosely) show that they will be under in year 2?

3) It is interesting to see how many class A teams qualify for 8 man as well. Bishop Garrigan, Southeast Warren etc

4) I think that districts 5-8 will be vastly different than what they were the last 2 years. With teams coming and going it is very difficult to predict how this will end up. I also have a hunch that schools will start taking a hard look at sharing some programs this spring and that there are more changes to come.

Here is how I could see the landscape changing a little bit.

Guthrie Center goes to District 6.
I think AC comes to District 7.
CAM will also come to district 7
West Harrison Goes to District 8.

 

[Drake_Mallard]

Bishop Garrigan will not be in 8 man for at least 2 more years. They will be under 115, but have decided to stay in class A. They played West Lyon in the quarterfinals last year and only lost 21-7. They will be very very good next year. Their qb will be a 4 year starter next year and return many skill positions. Its a good thing they don't go to 8 man next year.

 

[StayLow6]

Drake,

In regards to your 'its a good thing they don't go 8 man next year" comment:

I am sure Bishop-Garrigan has a great team next year. However, dropping to 8 man does not guarantee any sort of success. Many other schools have tried this and failed. There are a lot of good 8 man teams.

 

[paxregis]

Originally posted by Voicefromthestands:
Sorry but they have been released. Just go to the Girls site and you can get them. The State has known the numbers since October. That is when the schools are required to report beds numbers to the State so financing can be figured for each school. And they are the numbers used to set classifications for 2014 to 2015. All the ihsaa does it take the numbers for 9 thru 11 as you stated. School in southwest Iowa have already let their patrons know what enrollment is. Including home schooled students. They know how many they reported . It's not rocket science.

Once again, the numbers linked on the IGHSAU site is the sheet from the IHSAA site that lists 2012-13 9-11 enrollment used to classify the CURRENT (2013-14) school year sports. Football is realigning for the 2014-15 & 2015-16 school years.
Full enrollment figures from this fall HAVE NOT been released to the general public. Each school knows their own numbers and the DOE has provided aggregated data to the legislature and the state athletic groups for planning purposes. The most recent data available on the Department of Education website is for the 2012-13 website.

If you would read this header on the data sheet, you would see where you went wrong:


BEDS DOCUMENT: ALPHABETICAL
2012-2013 Enrollments: Grades 9, 10, 11
(Enrollment figures to be used for sports classifications for 2013-2014 school year)

 

[Voicefromthestands]

This post was edited on 12/30 11:45 PM by Voicefromthestands

 

[paxregis]

Originally posted by Jayhawkin:
A few interesting tidbits......


1) As someone has stated, I don't think Charter Oak-Ute will be fielding a team this season.

2) I am curious as how teams above the 115 mark can "legitimately" (I use that term loosely) show that they will be under in year 2?

3) It is interesting to see how many class A teams qualify for 8 man as well. Bishop Garrigan, Southeast Warren etc

4) I think that districts 5-8 will be vastly different than what they were the last 2 years. With teams coming and going it is very difficult to predict how this will end up. I also have a hunch that schools will start taking a hard look at sharing some programs this spring and that there are more changes to come.

Here is how I could see the landscape changing a little bit.

Guthrie Center goes to District 6.
I think AC comes to District 7.
CAM will also come to district 7
West Harrison Goes to District 8.

1. Charter Oak-Ute has only stated their intention to play JV-only this season. The IHSAA will still slot them into a district in anticipation of them returning to varsity play in 2015.

2. The IHSAA can look at data/projections from the department of education, so schools can't fudge the numbers. It's a matter of simple math. I'll use East Mills as an example: 2014 BEDS (34+45+37=116) 2015 BEDS (29+34+45=108)

3. If programs are still having success, I can understand putting off a move. Also, some schools may be in an enrollment dip, rather than a steady decline, and it doesn't make sense to their program to drop down for a cycle or two.

 

[studman1]

There is a list on the IHSAA web site showing which schools are playing 11man and 8man for the 2014-2015 football cycle.

 

[paxregis]

Thanks for the heads up, studman
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[studman1]

According to todays Des Moines Register the IHSAA Board will vote on the new districts at their January 22 board meeting and schedules will be released in early February. Thats if the MVC in 4A chooses to go to districts by January 10th.

 

[paxregis]

Looks like there will be an odd number of teams in both Class A (63) & 8-man (65), so get ready for a lot of week zero games.
Central City gets to stay 8-man as they have a large freshman & junior class that pushed them over 115, but then drop back down next year. I was hoping for a neat, tidy 64 teams in each class.

 

[brewcrewman1]

Regarding Charter Oak-Ute. Their School Board voted to go JV only for 2014 and 2015. I think that is a bit different than "stating their intention" but then again I could be wrong. We shall see come February.

 

[brewcrewman1]

Looking at the list on the IAHSAA website it appears that Whiting will not be playing 8 man and is in fact listed as sending their players to West Monona to play 11 man.

 

[Rose bowl or bust]

Now the IAHSAA has released their districts, I'll take a stab at it.

District 1 (8)
River Valley
Kingsley-Pierson
Remsen St. Marys
Remsen-Union
Clay Central-Everly
Marcus-Meriden-Cleghorn
Harris-Lark Park
Newell-Fonda

District 2 (8)
Laurens-Marathon
West Bend-Mallard
GTRA, Graettinger
North Iowa, Buffalo Center
Northwood
Rockford
CAL
Northeast Hamilton

District 3 (8)
Riceville
Kee, Lansing
Turkey Valley
Central Elkader
West Central, Maynard
Tripoli
Clarksville
Janesville

District 4 (8)
Dunkerton
Gilbertville
Midland, Wyoming
Central City
Springville
Cedar Valley Christian
Colo-Nesco
Meskwaki Settlement School

District 5 (8)
HLV, Victor
English Valleys
Tri-County, Thornburg
Harmony, Farmington
Moravia
Twin Cedars, Bussey
Melcher-Dallas
Seymour

District 6 (8)
Wayne
Mormon Trail, Garden Grove
Iowa Christian Academy
Grandview Park Baptist
Lamoni
Murray
East Union, Afton
Lenox

District 7 (8)
Guthrie Center
Exira
Coon Rapids-Bayard
Glidden-Ralston
Ar-We-Va, Westside
Boyer Valley
Woodbine
West Harrison, Mondamin


District 8 (8)
Adair-Casey
CAM, Anita
Stanton
Essex-South Page
East Mills
Fremont Mills
Sidney
Nishnabotna


I'm sure I'm not even close, as there are some huge shake ups from what we're used to seeing. Adair-Casey all the way to District 8 for example. That's a big difference from what they've been used to.

There are so many different ways the state can go with one district having to have 9 teams. There are big clusters of teams in the SW part of the state, along the Cedar Valley, and throughout Southern Iowa. There are going to be some long bus trips along SE and NW/North Central Iowa no matter what the state does.

***Edit - thanks for catching Dunkerton. I put them in both when I was looking at the 9th team, but now with them out, there isn't a ninth team. Funny how that works out...haha. The paragraph above is also pretty much nonsense now. There are only 64 teams in 8-man for next year.
This post was edited on 1/5 4:59 PM by Rose bowl or bust

 

[StayLow6]

You have Dunkerton in two different districts.

I only count 64 on the www.iahsaa.org list. Am I missing something?

 

[brewcrewman1]

Looks like a good guess to me. Two observations...1)you have Dunkerton listed in both District 3 and 4. 2) With NF and MMC in district 1, sure would not want to be one of the other 6.

 

[RivalThat]

Its always fun to predict what the districts will be and speculate. Looking at these, to me, District 7 would be the best district in the state.

 

[Jayhawkin]

I couldn't agree more with the fun and excitement that comes with the "re-shuffle" year. I would guess that when the districts are officially released, they will look something like the 2 "mock districts" that we have now.

 

[paxregis]

Originally posted by StayLow6:
You have Dunkerton in two different districts.

I only count 64 on the www.iahsaa.org list. Am I missing something?

Nope, I was missing something.....the fact that Ankeny Christian is not on the list. I thought there was a new program with Iowa Christian showing up, since the two schools have shared in the past. Looks like ICA took ACA's place in 8-man. So I at least have a tidy 64 team 8-man grid.

 

[paxregis]

Now that I know the teams that will be playing 8-man, here is my lastest stab at districts:


1 73 Clay Central-Everly
1 115 GTRA, Graettinger
1 71 Harris-Lake Park
1 108 Kingsley-Pierson
1 95 Marcus-Meriden-Cleghorn
1 42 Remsen St Mary's
1 93 Remsen-Union
1 77 River Valley

2 53 CAL, Latimer
2 69 Laurens-Marathon
2 103 Newell-Fonda
2 106 North Iowa
2 44 Northeast Hamilton
2 109 Northwood-Kensett
2 113 Rockford
2 88 West Bend-Mallard

3 101 Central, Elkader
3 68 Clarksville
3 114 Dunkerton
3 95 Kee, Lansing
3 69 Riceville
3 104 Tripoli
3 111 Turkey Valley
3 70 West Central, Maynard

4 45 Cedar Valley Christian
4 125 Central City
4 104 Colo NESCO
4 110 Gilbertville Don Bosco
4 78 Janesville
4 47 Meskwaki Settlement School
4 96 Midland, Wyoming
4 88 Springville

5 109 English Valleys
5 71 HLV,Victor
5 55 Melcher-Dallas
5 83 Moravia
5 47 Seymour
5 56 Tri-County
5 95 Twin Cedars
5 102 Wayne County

6 98 East Union
6 66 Grandview Park Baptist
6 52 Harmony, Farmington
6 55 Iowa Christian Acadaemy
6 67 Lamoni
6 103 Lenox
6 53 Mormon Trail, Garden Grove
6 81 Murray

7 68 Adair-Casey
7 48 Ar-We-Va, Westside
7 100 Boyer Valley
7 100 Coon Rapids-Bayard
7 98 Elk Horn-Kimballton/Exira
7 85 Glidden-Ralston
7 118 Guthrie Center
7 94 West Harrison

8 85 CAM, Anita
8 116 East Mills
8 58 Essex
8 104 Fremont-Mills
8 77 Nishnabotna
8 92 Sidney
8 58 Stanton
8 79 Woodbine

 

[RivalThat]

Im from the Glidden area, and I would like to see the state have CRB, EHK Exira and us (Glidden) in different districts for once. Now you add the fact that AC who is always one of the best teams in the state and Guthrie is coming down from 11 man, ArWeVa returns everyone, Boyer Valley was 7-4 and West Harrison was pretty good and that makes one heck of a district, if not by far the best district.

 

[paxregis]

I plotted the 64 teams on a mapping program and realized I had no clue where Harmony was located other than in the bottom tier of counties. Aside from that, I made some other changes to my model.


1 73 Clay Central-Everly
1 115 GTRA, Graettinger
1 71 Harris-Lake Park
1 108 Kingsley-Pierson
1 95 Marcus-Meriden-Cleghorn
1 42 Remsen St Mary's
1 93 Remsen-Union
1 77 River Valley

2 53 CAL, Latimer
2 69 Laurens-Marathon
2 103 Newell-Fonda
2 106 North Iowa
2 44 Northeast Hamilton
2 109 Northwood-Kensett
2 113 Rockford
2 88 West Bend-Mallard

3 101 Central, Elkader
3 68 Clarksville
3 78 Janesville
3 95 Kee, Lansing
3 69 Riceville
3 104 Tripoli
3 111 Turkey Valley
3 70 West Central, Maynard

4 45 Cedar Valley Christian
4 125 Central City
4 104 Colo NESCO
4 114 Dunkerton
4 110 Gilbertville Don Bosco
4 47 Meskwaki Settlement School
4 96 Midland, Wyoming
4 88 Springville

5 109 English Valleys
5 52 Harmony, Farmington
5 71 HLV,Victor
5 55 Melcher-Dallas
5 83 Moravia
5 47 Seymour
5 56 Tri-County
5 95 Twin Cedars

6 98 East Union
6 66 Grandview Park Baptist
6 55 Iowa Christian Acadaemy
6 67 Lamoni
6 103 Lenox
6 53 Mormon Trail, Garden Grove
6 81 Murray
6 102 Wayne County

7 68 Adair-Casey
7 48 Ar-We-Va, Westside
7 100 Boyer Valley
7 85 CAM, Anita
7 100 Coon Rapids-Bayard
7 98 Elk Horn-Kimballton/Exira
7 85 Glidden-Ralston
7 118 Guthrie Center

8 116 East Mills
8 58 Essex
8 104 Fremont-Mills
8 77 Nishnabotna
8 92 Sidney
8 58 Stanton
8 94 West Harrison
8 79 Woodbine

 

[paxregis]

Originally posted by RivalThat:
Im from the Glidden area, and I would like to see the state have CRB, EHK Exira and us (Glidden) in different districts for once. Now you add the fact that AC who is always one of the best teams in the state and Guthrie is coming down from 11 man, ArWeVa returns everyone, Boyer Valley was 7-4 and West Harrison was pretty good and that makes one heck of a district, if not by far the best district.

G-R is going to be sent Southwest against those teams for the forseeable future. If you look at a map of 8-man & Class A, there is a void centered around Fort Dodge of small football programs, So there are no closer schools on the verge of dropping to 8-man and redrawing the map to split up the West Central teams.

 

[Jayhawkin]

If this were the model that was used.....at quick glance,

-District 6 would be one of the worst in the state

-District 7 would have 7 of the 8 teams, having qualified for the playoffs a year ago

-District 8 would have F-M and E-M at the top, then fall off drastically with everyone else

 

[paxregis]

I went with straight geography. If the IHSAA is concerned with competitive balance, they could send the two metro area private schools to D7 and send CAM and A-C to D6. The main problem with that is Harmony would have a four hour one-way bus trip each of the next two seasons.

 

[Jayhawkin]

I completely agree with your districts based on geography. I am sure this is how the state starts all of the districts. I would like to think that they make subtle changes from that point to even out everything, but who knows.

It seems like in districts 6-8, there will be a lot of fluctuation amongst CAM/AC/GC/EHKE. All 4 could end up in the same district or CAM/EHKE could go to 8, with GC headed to 6, and AC to 7.

It will be very interesting to see it all on the 23rd!