Football's equivalent of the Hot Stove League: projected new districts

paxregis

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Nov 10, 2004
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I'm aware schools have been sent preliminary notices on classification, I just can't move teams based on piecemeal info.
I get nothing for being right, and lose nothing for being wrong. Spirit Lake supposedly is 2A, so D1-3 will shift to replace Gilbert with SL.
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ToddDoxzon7

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Aug 20, 2004
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Pax,

I appreciate you putting all the time and effort into the district alignments. It is helpful as we project and look at the possibilities. Nice work!
 
Dec 15, 2005
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Paxregis, maybe this will help a little with the projections. Here are confirmations on some of the "bubble teams" along with some of the no-brainers who have been confirmed.
In 3A: Humboldt, Greene County, Independence, Rock Valley, Bondurant, Nevada, and Gilbert.
In 2A: Centerville, Clear Lake, Williamsburg, MOC-Floyd Valley, Spirit Lake, Union LPC, Iowa Falls, North Polk, Estherville LC, Sheldon, Roland-Story, PCM, Sioux Center, South Hardin, Cherokee, West Central Valley, Tipton, Central Lyon, Aplington-Parkersburg, Clarion-Goldfield, Okoboji, Cascade, and Unity Christian.
In 1A: I-35, OA-BCIG, North Cedar, South Central Calhoun, Clarinda Academy, West Monona, Columbus Junction, Regina, Dike-New Hartford, West Branch, Eagle Grove, Wilton, St. Edmond, and Pocahontas.
Prairie Valley will also be in 2A if the sharing agreement with SE Webster gets approved next week. The IAHSAA is aware and in a holding pattern until they get the results of that vote. If the is no sharing agreement, PV will stay in 1A and my best guess is North Cedar would get bumped up to 2A.
 

usfhawk

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Jul 13, 2006
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Originally posted by mharen:

Paxregis, maybe this will help a little with the projections. Here are confirmations on some of the "bubble teams" along with some of the no-brainers who have been confirmed.
In 3A: Humboldt, Greene County, Independence, Rock Valley, Bondurant, Nevada, and Gilbert.
In 2A: Centerville, Clear Lake, Williamsburg, MOC-Floyd Valley, Spirit Lake, Union LPC, Iowa Falls, North Polk, Estherville LC, Sheldon, Roland-Story, PCM, Sioux Center, South Hardin, Cherokee, West Central Valley, Tipton, Central Lyon, Aplington-Parkersburg, Clarion-Goldfield, Okoboji, Cascade, and Unity Christian.
In 1A: I-35, OA-BCIG, North Cedar, South Central Calhoun, Clarinda Academy, West Monona, Columbus Junction, Regina, Dike-New Hartford, West Branch, Eagle Grove, Wilton, St. Edmond, and Pocahontas.
Prairie Valley will also be in 2A if the sharing agreement with SE Webster gets approved next week. The IAHSAA is aware and in a holding pattern until they get the results of that vote. If the is no sharing agreement, PV will stay in 1A and my best guess is North Cedar would get bumped up to 2A.
Pax, if Prairie Valley and SEW consolidate which teams get bumped to 1A and to A? Any guess?
 
Jan 4, 2014
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Any idea if those letters sent to schools considered Prairie Valley a 1A or a 2A before the vote next week.
I am guessing they are considered a 1A until the vote.
If they were considered a 1A and the vote goes through making them a 2A then the bottom 2A team listed would drop to 1A.

Any idea who would be the lowest 2A team listed?
 

PNation

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When the state sends out those letters to the schools say what class they are, I am sure they have a clause in there saying that they are preliminary that could change.
 
Jan 4, 2014
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I am sure you are right.

I just wondered who was lowest 2A in the preliminary letters, a good chance they will drop if that merger goes through
 
Dec 15, 2005
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The list of the FB classifications in my previous post suggests the state has already assumed the PV/SEW sharing agreement will pass. I received confirmations from all the 3A, 2A, and 1A "bubble" teams and have a compiled list of all 340 FB teams. If I include PV/SEW in Class 2A, there is a nice clean break between both 3A/2A and 2A/1A...so I'm assuming the state currently has them in 2A and will make the adjustment if the sharing agreement does not pass. If the sharing agreement doesn't pass, my best guess would be North Cedar (BEDs 198) would bump up to 2A.

Can anyone verify classifications for any of the following schools: Ridgeview, Panorama, Missouri Valley, or Western Christian. Those would probably be the largest 1A schools I haven't confirmed. If any other those are currently 2A, then we would know the state has PV still in 1A at this point.
 
Dec 15, 2005
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Unity Christian is 2A at 199. North Cedar is 1A 198. (This is already assuming PV/SEW are in 2A)

To answer previous poster: I have Atlantic 3A and South Tama 2A.
 
Dec 15, 2005
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Check that...PV coach says the state currently has them in 1A. So, I'm hoping one of you can confirm the classifications for any or all of the 4 schools I listed in my previous post. I'm missing one smaller 2A school and am guessing it's one of those four.
BTW...if PV joins with SEW, my guess is Unity Christian will drop to 1A based on their BEDs of 199.
 

paxregis

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Originally posted by mharen:

Check that...PV coach says the state currently has them in 1A. So, I'm hoping one of you can confirm the classifications for any or all of the 4 schools I listed in my previous post. I'm missing one smaller 2A school and am guessing it's one of those four.
BTW...if PV joins with SEW, my guess is Unity Christian will drop to 1A based on their BEDs of 199.
Not sure if you are missing a 2A team. After switching classes for the bubble teams you've confirmed, I still came out with 56 in each class. Tipton, Okoboji & Cascade moved up. Prairie Valley, West Monona & North Cedar moved down. 3A/2A was a straight swap with Gilbert & Spirit Lake.
 
Dec 15, 2005
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Clarinda Academy is 1A. They will not petition to stay in 2A (same class as Clarinda). Got this from administrator at Clarinda HS. He said the Academy has always automatically played in the same class as Clarinda HS to help with travel, but they have chosen not to this the next two years. So if you take Clarinda Academy out of 2A, what 1A school do you have bumping up to 2A?
On a side note, Woodward-Granger and Woodward Academy will stay in same class--1A.
 

paxregis

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Originally posted by mharen:

Clarinda Academy is 1A. They will not petition to stay in 2A (same class as Clarinda). Got this from administrator at Clarinda HS. He said the Academy has always automatically played in the same class as Clarinda HS to help with travel, but they have chosen not to this the next two years. So if you take Clarinda Academy out of 2A, what 1A school do you have bumping up to 2A?
On a side note, Woodward-Granger and Woodward Academy will stay in same class--1A.
I looked again and I already had North Cedar as 1A, so Clarinda Academy was the third team to move down. Moving those teams in & out really changed the map. Adding two more teams to Northwest Iowa made for some ugly changes.


1 Central Lyon/George-Little Rock
1 Cherokee
1 East Sac County
1 MOC-Floyd Valley
1 Sheldon
1 Sioux Center
1 Unity Christian

2 Clarion-Goldfield
2 Clear Lake
2 Estherville-Lincoln Central
2 Forest City
2 Garner-Hayfield/Ventura
2 Okoboji
2 Spirit Lake

3 Aplington-Parkersburg
3 Hampton-Dumont
3 Iowa Falls-Alden
3 New Hampton
3 Osage
3 South Hardin
3 Waterloo Columbus

4 Cascade
4 Center Point-Urbana
4 Dyersville Beckman
4 North Fayette Valley
4 Oelwein
4 Union
4 Waukon

5 Anamosa
5 Camanche
5 Monticello
5 Mount Vernon
5 Northeast, Goose Lake
5 Tipton
5 West Liberty

6 Albia
6 Centerville
6 Central Lee
6 Davis County
6 Louisa-Muscatine
6 Mediapolis
6 West Burlington-Notre Dame

7 East Marshall
7 Mid-Prairie
7 North Polk
7 Prairie City-Monroe
7 Roland-Story
7 South Tama
7 Williamsburg

8 Carroll Kuemper
8 Clarinda
8 Clarke County
8 Interstate-35
8 Red Oak
8 Shenandoah
8 West Central Valley
 

paxregis

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mharen, do you have any insight on 1A/A bubble teams? I know there are a lot of them. If you look at +/10 from my cutoff, that's 22 1A & 12 A teams that could possibly be in a different class than I projected.
 
Dec 15, 2005
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The 1A/A cutoff is the only one I didn't do any legwork on. The only "bubble" schools I have are the two Woodward schools playing 1A and Sioux Central is in A. Pocahontas and Wilton are also 1A but not really on the bubble.
 

paxregis

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After taking mharen's confirmations (and some anecdotal posts from others), now I'm left with one team short in 2A. My best guess is Collins-Maxwell/Baxter is that team, since no one else was very close to the cutoff. I moved North Polk to D8 to take the place of I-35 and inserted CMB in D7.

I'm still left with two extra 1A teams and eight possible candidates to be in Class A instead: Denver, South Hamilton, Highland, Lake Mills, Manson NW Webster, Pekin, South Winn & West Lyon. Based on the most recent (2011-12) projections of those schools, I selected South Hamilton & Pekin as the likely teams to move down in my model.
 
Dec 15, 2005
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Another coach and I have sent emails to both CMB and Woodward Academy to confirm their classification. I'll let you know if we hear anything.
 

Y2KG21

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Anyone seen the listings yet. KUOO in Sp Lake said this AM Sp lake is staying 2A.
 

Herdcyclones

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Jul 29, 2006
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According to the linked article from the Fort Dodge paper, last night Prairie Valley approved whole grade sharing with SE Webster/Grand. SEWG votes tonite, which I'm gonna presume would pass. The article doesn't specifically mention football, but would the IHSAA wait for a vote tonite to the get PV/SEWG into 2A? I presume they would have prepped for that.

Prairie Valley/SEWG
 

warriors dad

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I haven't herd much scuttlebutt lately but the last I heard was it is going to be close! Boxholm school will be closed if voted for and there is a lot of resistance,but we will find out tonite. I will update as soon as I find out!
 

paxregis

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Originally posted by Herdcyclones:
According to the linked article from the Fort Dodge paper, last night Prairie Valley approved whole grade sharing with SE Webster/Grand. SEWG votes tonite, which I'm gonna presume would pass. The article doesn't specifically mention football, but would the IHSAA wait for a vote tonite to the get PV/SEWG into 2A? I presume they would have prepped for that.
Somebody stated on the 1A board that Collins-Maxwell/Baxter has been notified they are the bubble team and would drop to 1A if the vote passes tonight at SE Webster-Grand tonight. So the IHSAA is sitting on two different alignments for 2A/1A pending tonight's vote.
 

warriors dad

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SEWG voted for sharing 4-3 in favor. Looks like I will be on 2A board more often,GOOD DAY!!!!!!!!!!
 
Aug 23, 2009
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No Pax No - I hope your prediction is off as far as Clear Lake is concerned for selfish reasons.... I was hoping my windshield time would be cut in half. Don't want to drive 2 plus hours to Okoboji- SL or Estherville !!! My big question though, can Mason City still keep CL on the schedule ? From a money standpoint, they have too but 4A vs 2A isn't a plus for MC. I would also love if Cresco is off the schedule as well as a non-district game.
 

Herdcyclones

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Jul 29, 2006
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Assuming the listed numbers are right, Pax is right in a post above, that NW Iowa is a mess. There are 9 schools reasonably close to each other, then there is a giant dead zone of no 2A schools. Somebody is going to be gassing up the bus. So I guess it comes down to the IHSAA deciding who is going to "take one for the team". And you pretty much have to work your way from the corners in. So that really sucks for the schools just to the east and just to the south of the NW corner. They are going to have to support the 2 odd men out in NW Iowa.

This may be totally off. There are ways to do it that make it better for more teams, but really suck for 1 school. So I'm guessing the IHSAA will went to spread the pain around.

So I took the challenge. Not exactly like filling out March Madness brackets, as we don't exactly know who the teams are. But we have a pretty good guess. So here is mine. I could make some cases in other ways, but I'll throw this out as my "bracket".

The Great Northwest District
Central Lyon/George-Little Rock
MOC-Floyd Valley
Sheldon
Sioux Center
Unity Christian
Okoboji
Spirit Lake

The Pack A Lunch District
Clarion-Goldfield
Estherville-Lincoln Central
Roland-Story
Carroll Kuemper
PrairieValley/SEWG
Cherokee
East Sac County

North Polk Will Think They Are Driving to Kansas District
Clarinda
Clarke County
Red Oak
West Central Valley
Shenandoah
North Polk
Prairie City-Monroe

The Only One Who Could Complain Is South Hardin District
Clear Lake
Forest City
Garner-Hayfield/Ventura
Osage
Hampton-Dumont
Iowa Falls-Alden
South Hardin

Hawks or UNI District
Aplington-Parkersburg
Waterloo Columbus
Union
East Marshall
Center Point-Urbana
South Tama
Williamsburg

Almost Wisconsin District
New Hampton
Oelwein
Waukon
Dyersville Beckman
North Fayette Valley
Cascade
Monticello

The Nostril Of Iowa's Nose District
Northeast, Goose Lake
Camanche
Anamosa
Mount Vernon
Louisa-Muscatine
West Liberty
Tipton

Insert Southern Iowa Joke Here District
Albia
Centerville
Central Lee
Davis County
Mediapolis
West Burlington-Notre Dame
Mid-Prairie
 

paxregis

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Nov 10, 2004
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Now that we know Prairie Valley/SE Webster are sharing to make a 2A team:


1 Central Lyon/George-Little Rock
1 Cherokee
1 East Sac County
1 MOC-Floyd Valley
1 Sheldon
1 Sioux Center
1 Unity Christian

2 Clarion-Goldfield
2 Clear Lake
2 Estherville-Lincoln Central
2 Forest City
2 Garner-Hayfield/Ventura
2 Okoboji
2 Spirit Lake

3 Aplington-Parkersburg
3 Hampton-Dumont
3 Iowa Falls-Alden
3 New Hampton
3 Osage
3 South Hardin
3 Waterloo Columbus

4 Cascade
4 Center Point-Urbana
4 Dyersville Beckman
4 North Fayette Valley
4 Oelwein
4 Union
4 Waukon

5 Anamosa
5 Camanche
5 Monticello
5 Mount Vernon
5 Northeast, Goose Lake
5 Tipton
5 West Liberty

6 Albia
6 Centerville
6 Central Lee
6 Davis County
6 Louisa-Muscatine
6 Mediapolis
6 West Burlington-Notre Dame

7 East Marshall
7 Mid-Prairie
7 North Polk
7 Prairie Valley/Southeast Webster
7 Roland-Story
7 South Tama
7 Williamsburg

8 Carroll Kuemper
8 Clarinda
8 Clarke County
8 Prairie City-Monroe
8 Red Oak
8 Shenandoah
8 West Central Valley
 

Y2KG21

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May 9, 2003
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When do we know officially? Surprises me that Boji moves up to 1A, but you all know this better than me. I wouldn't be surprised to see Okoboji and Sp Lake go D1, Cherokee and East Sac get pushed elsewhere.
 

paxregis

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Nov 10, 2004
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My D2 makes the most sense travel-wise, with two clusters of teams. SL, ELC & Boji can have a close road game each year. Also, CL, FC & GHV are all within a half hour of each other and about an hour from C-G.
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Nov 12, 2010
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I thought I read on Twitter that the Districts were being put out today sometime. Really interested to see how it all shakes out.
 
Dec 15, 2005
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Just venturing another guess to go with paxregis. I 100% believe the districts boil down to what direction the IAHSAA decides to go with North Polk.

District 1
C. Lyon
Sioux Center
Sheldon
Unity Christian
MOC
Cherokee
East Sac

District 2
ELC
Okoboji
Spirit Lake
Forest City
Garner-Hayfield/Ventura
Clear Lake
Osage

District 3
PV/SE Webster
Hampton-Dumont
Iowa Falls/Alden
A-P
South Hardin
Roland-Story
Clarion-Goldfield

District 4
New Hampton
Waukon
North Fayette Valley
Oelwein
Waterloo Columbus
Beckman
Cascade

District 5
Monticello
Anamosa
NE Gooselake
Camanche
Mount Vernon
Tipton
West Liberty

District 6
Louisa-Muscatine
Mediapolis
Central Lee
Davis County
Albia
Centerville
West Burlington ND

District 7
Mid Prairie Wellman
Williamsburg
Center Point-Urbana
Union, LPC
South Tama
East Marshall
PCM

District 8
North Polk
Kuemper
West Stuart Valley
Clarke, Osceola
Shenandoah
Clarinda
Red Oak
 

Herdcyclones

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Jul 29, 2006
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Well my brackets were goofed up because Unity was out, and CMB in. That solved my "East Sac Problem". First glance, I think the districts look pretty good.

This post was edited on 1/23 12:24 PM by Herdcyclones
 
Dec 15, 2005
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Agree. Unity coach said they had BEDs of 199 and were 2A. And CMB said they were the bubble team depended on the PV/SE Webster sharing agreement. Oh well, no biggie. Just happy the state didn't take away our Week #9 game. That would've just added to their screw up a few years ago when they expanded the playoffs to 32 teams. What a joke!!! Making the playoffs doesn't even mean anything anymore. Also happy the playoff matches will no longer be predetermined. Should help tremendously with travel distances.