Football's equivalent of the Hot Stove League: projected new districts

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
It's that magical time that only comes around every other year: "What will the new football districts look like?" We have several months (March) until the real districts are released the the IHSAA and almost as long (January) before the Iowa Department of education releases their enrollment data, but I thought I would try to keep the boards engaged by mocking up classes & districts based off grade 8-10 enrollment from the fall of 2012. That should give a good approximation of where this fall's 9-11 enrollment should stack up the schools. I will be posting each class projection on their own board until Luke consolidates everything to the off-season football board.


1 305 Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley
1 256 Central Lyon/George-Little Rock
1 197 Cherokee
1 307 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
1 233 Sheldon
1 224 Sioux Center
1 218 Unity Christian

2 219 Clarion-Goldfield
2 296 Estherville-Lincoln Central
2 274 Forest City
2 254 Garner-Hayfield/Ventura
2 260 Pocahontas Area/Pomeroy-Palmer
2 212 South Central Calhoun
2 297 Spirit Lake

3 203 Central Springs
3 285 Clear Lake
3 237 New Hampton
3 289 North Fayette Valley
3 222 Osage
3 199 Sumner-Fredericksburg
3 236 Waterloo Columbus

4 222 Camanche
4 225 Cascade
4 280 Center Point-Urbana
4 237 Dyersville Beckman
4 242 Monticello
4 207 North Cedar
4 306 Union

5 285 Central Lee
5 199 Columbus
5 207 Louisa-Muscatine
5 250 Mediapolis
5 304 Solon
5 203 West Burlington-Notre Dame
5 249 West Liberty

6 267 Albia
6 299 Davis County
6 209 Interstate-35
6 261 Mid-Prairie
6 233 Mount Vernon
6 223 Prairie City-Monroe
6 297 Williamsburg

7 295 Bondurant-Farrar
7 292 Gilbert
7 267 Hampton-Dumont
7 300 Iowa Falls-Alden
7 275 North Polk
7 210 Roland-Story
7 258 South Hardin

8 215 Carroll Kuemper
8 230 Clarinda
8 177 Clarinda Academy
8 214 East Sac County
8 265 Red Oak
8 254 Shenandoah
8 237 West Central Valley
 

SPOONER

All State
Jul 15, 2001
10,597
1
38
Clear Lake is going to lose 40+ kids between the incoming and outgoing class that you're counting? That's a bit hard to believe. Are you sure about that?

Also, looking around a bit, I'm not sure your numbers are including kids who attend parochial schools until 9th grade.

This post was edited on 11/25 2:19 PM by SPOONER
 

TD-BOMBS

Freshman
Gold Member
Aug 7, 2007
948
0
16
The key word is : PROJECTED

If Clear Lake drops down to 2A the would have to be one of the early favorite.
 

KidSilverhair

Varsity
Aug 31, 2008
1,452
219
63
www.thirdandamile.blogspot.com
Where do people keep getting this notion that Assumption is 2A-sized? The BEDS numbers are right on the IAHSAA website for everybody to see. Based on this year's enrollment, there are 12 3A schools with a lower BEDS number than Assumption.

If they decide to drop out of the MAC, or if the district decision is made for them, they'll be 3A unless they have an extra-small freshman class next year.
 

SPOONER

All State
Jul 15, 2001
10,597
1
38
Originally posted by TD-BOMBS:

The key word is : PROJECTED

If Clear Lake drops down to 2A the would have to be one of the early favorite.

Yes it is projected but pax goes through a lot of work to do these so I think he would appreciate input.

What makes Clear Lake so tough? I believe their all staters and most of their all district players were seniors. Also, I'd be surprised if they are in 2A.
 

ORSKY1

Varsity
Oct 19, 2001
1,152
11
38
I don't think Assumption will be in 2a but they are smaller than Solon and a few others who are listed in the original post. The size conference they play in won't matter if Districts come to 4A.
 

KidSilverhair

Varsity
Aug 31, 2008
1,452
219
63
www.thirdandamile.blogspot.com
I know the conference doesn't matter if districts happen. I hear the MVC and MAC might be planning some crossover games, which would keep 4A districts from being implemented in the east. If that happens, Assumption might very well drop out of the MAC and play in their class - whatever that ends up being.

If pax actually is working from this year's 8th grade numbers, he's way ahead of the game and has a better grip on potential BEDS numbers for next year than I do. I also have a hard time seeing Solon drop to 2A (their numbers went up by 12 between 2010-11 and by 25 between 2011-12) ... but if this year's 8th grade class is low, it's possible.

Over the past two years, the cutoff between 3A and 2A was in the low 300s. Solon's number this year is 376 while Assumption's is 359, so that would be quite a drop to get down in the 310 range, where the cutoff has been recently.

On the other hand, I don't really know. I'm just spitballing here, so if pax has pulled together the projected numbers for next year, he's got me beat.
 

ballgame50401

Freshman
Sep 24, 2009
141
0
16
Originally posted by SPOONER:

Originally posted by TD-BOMBS:

The key word is : PROJECTED

If Clear Lake drops down to 2A the would have to be one of the early favorite.

Yes it is projected but pax goes through a lot of work to do these so I think he would appreciate input.

What makes Clear Lake so tough? I believe their all staters and most of their all district players were seniors. Also, I'd be surprised if they are in 2A.
Uhm, you want to look at their track record since 1997? And their enrollment has dropped, the girls sports in a 5-class system dropped down a class this year, and it's a 6-class system for football.
 

Teenage Dirtbag

Freshman
Gold Member
Sep 21, 2007
473
17
18
Don't we all have to wait and see how many schools are dropping down to 8-man? How many are in 8-man that shouldn't be? Maybe I'm wrong but the a lot of schools are talking 8-man and not sure what the IHSAAU is gonna do.
 

ballgame50401

Freshman
Sep 24, 2009
141
0
16
Originally posted by Teenage Dirtbag:
Don't we all have to wait and see how many schools are dropping down to 8-man? How many are in 8-man that shouldn't be? Maybe I'm wrong but the a lot of schools are talking 8-man and not sure what the IHSAAU is gonna do.
No, it's a top-down ranking, not a bottom-up.
 

PNation

Varsity
Aug 15, 2010
2,118
316
83
Couple of things here, 1st off Assumption won't be a 2A, they had a few small classes about 5 years ago, but they won't be close to the cut off, Clear Lake should be close but I think they always get a few open enrolled students that could keep them in 3A, if they do drop they would be big time contenders most of their studs off of this years semi finals team were juniors.
 

SPOONER

All State
Jul 15, 2001
10,597
1
38
Originally posted by ballgame50401:
Originally posted by SPOONER:

Originally posted by TD-BOMBS:

The key word is : PROJECTED

If Clear Lake drops down to 2A the would have to be one of the early favorite.

Yes it is projected but pax goes through a lot of work to do these so I think he would appreciate input.

What makes Clear Lake so tough? I believe their all staters and most of their all district players were seniors. Also, I'd be surprised if they are in 2A.
Uhm, you want to look at their track record since 1997? And their enrollment has dropped, the girls sports in a 5-class system dropped down a class this year, and it's a 6-class system for football.

Oh I would not argue they are likely to carry their fantastic tradition into 2A but to assign them the favorite tag just because of their 3A tradition is head scratching. The difference on the upper end of 2A and 3A is not vast. Look at Union winning the 3A title and bringing back much of their team the next year--they didn't make it out of the quarters. Look at New Hampton--they did not take a great leap forward by moving to 2A.

I don't doubt CL will be formidable. That barely requires research to understand. I'm asking if they have a significant amount of talent coming back that prompted someone to make such a bold statement.
 

ballgame50401

Freshman
Sep 24, 2009
141
0
16
The program has been well oiled and well stocked for years. It's not a case of rebuilding but reloading every year.
 

SPOONER

All State
Jul 15, 2001
10,597
1
38
Originally posted by ballgame50401:
The program has been well oiled and well stocked for years. It's not a case of rebuilding but reloading every year.
Again, I absolutely agree with this statement. But I asked what specifically leads someone to believe they're the favorite in 2014? Do they have most of their talent coming back? Do they not lose much? What will make them the favorite over a New Hampton team that went 11-1 and returns something like 16 starters? Or a Cascade? Or any other good 2013 teams that return a lot of talent?

I'd like to hear about Clear Lake's prospects for next year. Let's have an actual discussion and not just a bragging contest about the historical strength of our hometown football teams.
 

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
Clear Lake return QB Brock Adams for his third season starting, RB/DB Chandler Dierks, 3 OL & 8 total defensive starters (six in the front 7)
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
Since I put my mock up out in November, I have since found out the Iowa Department of Education had posted revised 2012-13 enrollment numbers. That changed my model quite a bit. Also, someone else pointed out on this topic on another board that several schools gain students from K-8 private schools in their towns. So I went back and redrew everything with the most up-to-date information I have to create a new "best guess" at what districts might look like.


1 236 Central Lyon/George-Little Rock
1 209 Cherokee
1 266 Estherville-Lincoln Central
1 304 MOC-Floyd Valley
1 241 Sheldon
1 228 Sioux Center
1 218 Unity Christian

2 308 Algona
2 301 Clear Lake
2 276 Forest City
2 267 Garner-Hayfield/Ventura
2 265 Hampton-Dumont
2 299 Iowa Falls-Alden
2 230 South Hardin

3 209 Aplington-Parkersburg
3 248 New Hampton
3 282 North Fayette Valley
3 316 Oelwein
3 226 Osage
3 255 Waterloo Columbus
3 310 Waukon

4 295 Anamosa
4 255 Camanche
4 300 Center Point-Urbana
4 264 Dyersville Beckman
4 263 Monticello
4 201 North Cedar
4 305 Union

5 260 Central Lee
5 225 Louisa-Muscatine
5 230 Mediapolis
5 289 Mount Vernon
5 200 Tipton
5 288 West Burlington-Notre Dame
5 238 West Liberty

6 264 Albia
6 297 Centerville
6 279 Clarke County
6 304 Davis County
6 205 Interstate-35
6 267 Mid-Prairie
6 300 South Tama

7 221 Clarion-Goldfield
7 201 Collins-Maxwell-Baxter
7 216 East Marshall
7 315 Gilbert
7 268 North Polk
7 238 Prairie City-Monroe
7 220 Roland-Story

8 215 Carroll Kuemper
8 269 Clarinda
8 177 Clarinda Academy
8 213 East Sac County
8 260 Red Oak
8 252 Shenandoah
8 213 West Central Valley
 

tnobd

All District
May 13, 2003
5,283
7
38
Pax,

Both the 3A and 2A classes will have some interesting new district rivalries. I would say Centerville moving to 2A allows them to compete again, although Albia is playing at a high level. Clear Lake moving to 2A is the biggest shift. I would imagine Clear Lake would try to schedule some of their former 3A district foes in the non-district slate?
 

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
Originally posted by tnobd:

Pax,

Both the 3A and 2A classes will have some interesting new district rivalries. I would say Centerville moving to 2A allows them to compete again, although Albia is playing at a high level. Clear Lake moving to 2A is the biggest shift. I would imagine Clear Lake would try to schedule some of their former 3A district foes in the non-district slate?
I would imagine the Mason City/Clear Lake game will continue for at least a couple more years, unless the IHSAA decides to go away from straight district qualifying in 4A, then it would not be in the Mohawks' best interest to keep getting beat by their neighbors to the west. Since Forest City & Algona (two mainstays of non-district play for Clear Lake in the past) appear to end up in their district, Charles City, Humboldt & Webster City are likely names on the Lion's preference list.
 

PNation

Varsity
Aug 15, 2010
2,118
316
83
That is based off of this year's numbers, also basketball and baseball have 64 teams in 3a compared to 56 in football
 

Herdcyclones

Varsity
Jul 29, 2006
1,495
25
48
Thanks Pax. Certainly interesting, so any comments are not busting your chops....just 2 cents on somebody that didn't put the effort into it that you did...

Did Clarinda Academy petition to play up again? If so, your D8 looks pretty much like a lock.

A flip I could foresee is swaping South Hardin and Clarion-Goldfield. South Hardin has been with most of those schools in D7 for the past several years, and see no need to stick C-G in there. Plus the travel would be a bear for C-G. R-S would be their closest opponent at one hour in a bus. As a R-S fan, I'd like to see C-G though. Never have played there and seems like a similar school, not that far away. We see them in baseball and track, never have played in football tho.

Assuming all the D1 listed schools end up in 2A, I would say that district is almost a mortal lock.

I could see Osage moving into your proposed D2 and IFA out.

Not sure what it is based upon, but talking to some peeps quasi in the know, they seem to think Roland-Story will be playing in a north based district. That happened two realignments ago, where they played among others, Osage, Central Springs, DNH.

In the end, I would presume they start in the corners, and work their way in. Anything in the central part of the state is gonna pretty much be a crap shoot.
 

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
Herd, swapping South Hardin for Clarion-Goldfield makes sense. I had put South Hardin in D2, since they are in the same county as Iowa Falls-Alden. But they are more South & East, closer to the D7 schools. There are seems to be enough North Central schools that Roland-Story will not be shipped north.
 

lah8908

Freshman
Jun 1, 2007
500
0
16
I think Algona and CWL are going to begin sharing sports next year. Not sure if those numbers were factored into Algona's projection but if not that could keep them in 3A.
 

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
Originally posted by lah8908:
I think Algona and CWL are going to begin sharing sports next year. Not sure if those numbers were factored into Algona's projection but if not that could keep them in 3A.
Good catch. I thought I had added CWL in when I imput the new data, but i missed it. That moves Algona back to 3A and Crestwood comes down to 2A. I put them in D3 and Osage takes Algona's spot in D2.
 
Dec 23, 2009
57
12
8
According to todays Des Moines Register the IHSAA Board will vote on the new districts at their January 22 board meeting and schedules will be released in early February. Thats if the MVC in 4A chooses to go to districts by January 10th.
 

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
Based on the latest info available to me, here's another crack at 2A:


1 236 Central Lyon/George-Little Rock
1 209 Cherokee
1 266 Estherville-Lincoln Central
1 304 MOC-Floyd Valley
1 241 Sheldon
1 228 Sioux Center
1 218 Unity Christian

2 221 Clarion-Goldfield
2 301 Clear Lake
2 213 East Sac County
2 276 Forest City
2 267 Garner-Hayfield/Ventura
2 265 Hampton-Dumont
2 273 Prairie Valley/Southeast Webster

3 209 Aplington-Parkersburg
3 299 Iowa Falls-Alden
3 248 New Hampton
3 282 North Fayette Valley
3 226 Osage
3 255 Waterloo Columbus
3 310 Waukon

4 295 Anamosa
4 255 Camanche
4 300 Center Point-Urbana
4 264 Dyersville Beckman
4 263 Monticello
4 316 Oelwein
4 305 Union

5 260 Central Lee
5 225 Louisa-Muscatine
5 230 Mediapolis
5 289 Mount Vernon
5 226 Northeast, Goose Lake
5 288 West Burlington-Notre Dame
5 238 West Liberty

6 264 Albia
6 297 Centerville
6 304 Davis County
6 216 East Marshall
6 267 Mid-Prairie
6 300 South Tama
6 285 Williamsburg

7 279 Clarke County
7 315 Gilbert
7 205 Interstate-35
7 268 North Polk
7 238 Prairie City-Monroe
7 220 Roland-Story
7 230 South Hardin

8 215 Carroll Kuemper
8 269 Clarinda
8 177 Clarinda Academy
8 260 Red Oak
8 252 Shenandoah
8 213 West Central Valley
8 205 West Monona/Whiting
 

PNation

Varsity
Aug 15, 2010
2,118
316
83
Couple of things

1- I don't know if Prairie Valley and SEW are officially together?
2. Your geography is off here is how I would put these teams together (yes there are a few questionable geographic moves

District 1

CL-GLR
Sioux Center
MOC
Unity Christian
Sheldon
Cherokee
Estherville

District 2

Forest City
GHV
Clear Lake
Osage
New Hampton
North Fayette Valley
Waukon

District 3

AP
Columbus
Union
Oelwein
CPU
Monticello
Beckman

District 4

Clarion Goldfield
Hampton Dumont
Iowa Falls
South Hardin
East Marshall
South Tama
PCM

District 5

Williamsburg
Mount Vernon
Anamosa
West Liberty
Camanche
Northeast Gooselake
Louisa Muscatine

District 6

Mid Prairie
Albia
Centerville
Davis County
Mediapolis
Central Lee
West Burlington

District 7

Clarke
I35
West Central Valley
Clarinda
Clarinda Academy
Shenandoah
Red Oak

District 8

West Monona Whiting
Kuemper
Prairie Valley
East Sac County
North Polk
Roland Story
Gilbert
 

LB-HR

Freshman
Oct 28, 2003
645
0
16
Mustang fan here...

Do you think they would send us past Gilbert, North Polk and RS to that district or switch out one of those north teams and put us in with Kumper...... why I am asking for that no idea!!!!! Shorter trips I guess....
 

PNation

Varsity
Aug 15, 2010
2,118
316
83
For mine I plotted all of the points on a google map and then paired them together, PCM being in the center of the state could have went many different ways, I put them in this one, but you could send a couple of schools out west. Usually what I have done with this is start in the corners and work towards the center of the state.
 
Dec 23, 2009
57
12
8
I would hate to be from Central Lyon George LIttle Rock and have to travel to Waukon on a Wednesday night. or vis versa
 
Dec 23, 2009
57
12
8
I would probably make district 8 on pnations list into district one and drop the other districts down a number only for playoff matchups
 

PNation

Varsity
Aug 15, 2010
2,118
316
83
Yes I wasn't pairing for playoff purposes I was just giving them a number, honestly I wouldn't mind getting rid of just pairing up districts and pair them randomly by travel distance.
 

warriors dad

Freshman
Gold Member
Aug 16, 2012
202
15
18
P.V. and SEWG are voting on whol;e grade sharing later this month. If this happens the head coach at P.V. told me they will become 2A. If not P.V. will be borderline 1A or A and SEWG will not play varsity the next 2 yrs due to #s. The SEWG school board has already voted on that so they will play jv only if we do not share.
 

warriors dad

Freshman
Gold Member
Aug 16, 2012
202
15
18
SEWG school board will be very close. I think it will happen but there is alot of opposition because 1 of there buildings will be closed.
 

paxregis

All Conference
Nov 10, 2004
4,093
54
48
Ran my last set of districts through a mapping program and I wa literally & figuratively all over the map with some assignments
. Guess my internal map of Iowa is a little fuzzy with age. So here is my latest model (assumes the PV/SEW agreement goes thru)


1 236 Central Lyon/George-Little Rock
1 209 Cherokee
1 266 Estherville-Lincoln Central
1 304 MOC-Floyd Valley
1 241 Sheldon
1 228 Sioux Center
1 218 Unity Christian

2 215 Carroll Kuemper
2 213 East Sac County
2 315 Gilbert
2 268 North Polk
2 273 Prairie Valley/Southeast Webster
2 220 Roland-Story
2 205 West Monona/Whiting

3 221 Clarion-Goldfield
3 301 Clear Lake
3 276 Forest City
3 267 Garner-Hayfield/Ventura
3 265 Hampton-Dumont
3 299 Iowa Falls-Alden
3 230 South Hardin

4 209 Aplington-Parkersburg
4 248 New Hampton
4 282 North Fayette Valley
4 316 Oelwein
4 226 Osage
4 255 Waterloo Columbus
4 310 Waukon

5 295 Anamosa
5 255 Camanche
5 300 Center Point-Urbana
5 264 Dyersville Beckman
5 263 Monticello
5 226 Northeast, Goose Lake
5 305 Union

6 264 Albia
6 297 Centerville
6 260 Central Lee
6 304 Davis County
6 225 Louisa-Muscatine
6 230 Mediapolis
6 288 West Burlington-Notre Dame

7 216 East Marshall
7 267 Mid-Prairie
7 289 Mount Vernon
7 238 Prairie City-Monroe
7 300 South Tama
7 238 West Liberty
7 285 Williamsburg

8 269 Clarinda
8 177 Clarinda Academy
8 279 Clarke County
8 205 Interstate-35
8 260 Red Oak
8 252 Shenandoah
8 213 West Central Valley
 

Latest posts