D-4 Playoff scenarios

[privateer13]

With two weeks remaining the district top is essentially settled but the bottom teams remain to be decided.


G-R with a big win on friday most likely has the top spot. They would have to go off the deep end and lose both games against BP and GMG to not get the top spot. If that happens they could fall to 4th but that is unlikely to happen. GR can't afford to take the foot off the gas as home field through the playoffs is at stake. Prediction: GR finishes 6-0 in the district for first.

GC has just one game left against NT with a bye the final week. Even with a loss GC will finish 2nd in the district with a long shot of winning if GR loses two. Prediction: GC finishes 5-1 taking second in the district.

BCLUW sitting at 2-2 in the district with games against IV and GMG this weekend. If they win out they will get the third seed. A loss to GMG and a win against IV will put them in as a 4th seed unless BP wins out then BCL will be sitting home.
Prediction: BCLUW finishes 4-2 in the district and a 3rd seed.

BP is also sitting 2-2 with games against GR and NT. If BP wins out then they will get the 4th seed if BCL wins out assuming GR doesn't lose to GMG. If BP wins out and GR loses out could send a 3 way tie for second in the district. If BCL splits then they will get the third seed. If BP splits their remaining games they will get the fourth spot as long as bcl wins out or loses both or GMG loses one. If GMG wins out they could be sitting home in the playoffs. There is a scenario where all three teams are tied which will throw it to pt differential. If that happens the will need to have the best diff or BCL to get in the playoffs. Prediction: BP finishes 3-3 in the district and gets the 4th seed.

GMG having their best year in a while are sitting at 2-2 and the toughest schedule remaining of the tied teams. GMG wins out and they are in as 3rd seed. If BCL loses out they will be the 4th team if BP wins out. If all three teams split with GMG beating BCL it will go to pt diff. Prediction: GMG finishes 2-4 and misses playoffs.

NT is sitting 1-3 with games against GC and BP. IF NT stuns GC and beats BP, has BP also lose to GR and has GMG lose out then NT can extend its post season streak and get the 4th seed. Prediction: NT finishes 1-7 and home watching the playoffs.

IV out of contention.

Clear as mud.

 

[privateer13]

Final week district is pretty much sorted out.

GR has clinched district title and playing for home field throughout the playoffs on Friday.

GC has clinched second place and get a bye week and extra rest.

BCL-UW has clinched third.

BP has the inside track on 4th. Win and they are in. If they lose and GMG wins they are out. If both teams lose then it will get thrown to pts because of a tie with NT. Predictions: They win and claim the 4th spot.

GMG has to beat GR and have BP lose or have both teams lose but lose by less pt's than BP loses to NT. Predictions: out of the playoffs.

NT even with a win they are mathematically out of the playoffs they are only able to play spoiler.

IV been out for a while now.

 

[Parker D]

Here's what I've got. Please correct me if I'm wrong, because I definitely could be.

Right now, GMG is at -1.6, times 5, equals a total of -8 points. BP is at -2.2, or a total of -11 and NT is at -6.6 or a total of -33. If GMG loses by 13, they will be at -21. If NT wins by 11, NT and BP will be at -22. If NT wins by 12, NT will be at -21 and BP will be at -23. GMG beat NT, so they will go. Any bigger win by NT will put them at -20 or better and they will go. Any smaller win by NT (or a BP win) will send BP on points.



So, if NT wins by 11 or 12, GMG will be in the playoffs and Wapsie Valley will be shaking in their boots from Friday night until game time Wednesday.



Disclaimer: The above is assuming I remember anything about math from the classes I stayed awake in.

 

[privateer13]

Yes that does look right so if NT wins by 13 and GMG loses by 13 NT can sneak in.

 

[PNation]

GR wins and BP wins, points don't matter

 

[IASPORT]

A couple of the teams....GR and Grundy have grown into possible contenders.
Both have been solid.
Problem is....they have to beat Wapsie Valley to get to the dome.
Thats not gonna happen.
Just sayin'...

 

[long-may-u-run]

Contenders for??? Having seen BGM and GR play, GR would start the second half against BGM with a running clock. It was only 14-8 against BP with 7 minutes left in the game. BP actually had a chance to take the lead in the fourth when they drove to the GR 11. Yeah the final looked bad but after scoring 14 in the first, BP shut them out until late in the fourth. If GR is a top 10 team then there is. HUGE gap between 1 and 7. District 4 could lose every 1st round game and I don't think it gets any past the second.

 

[privateer13]

After the top 3 teams there is a gap. I think that has been the consensus all year. If the comparison is on the BP game then that is a fair analysis.

 

[Parker D]

I don't really think this is a very strong district either. I realize that the non-district games were at the beginning of the season and that teams grow throughout the season, but the district teams were 7-14 out of district (playoff teams were 4-8) and the 7 teams they beat have won a total of 12 games this year. G-R lost to Denver who has won 2 more games, losing the other 6 by at least 12 points. Again, teams grow (or get worse) throughout the season, but they haven't done anything to prove to me that any of them will go far in the postseason.