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Class 4A Season Outlook

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Aug 15, 2010
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Here are my thoughts for class 4A this season, as alway more to get discussion going more than anything. Last year 4A was a class where any of the top 10 or so teams could beat each other on any Friday night, which lead to great games every week. I think there may be a clearer favorite this year, but still a bunch of really good teams right behind them.

District 1

Favorite: Fort Dodge
Top Challenger: Spencer

This district last year was the weakest overall and I expect the same this year as well. I am taking Fort Dodge as the favorite they were relatively young last year, and they have the best player in the district and maybe the state in 4A. After that I think you could go a few different ways. I think Spencer has more experience returning then LeMars but the Bulldogs would probably be the other team I considered for the two spot. Overall I see this district as messy.

District 2

Favorite: Western Dubuque
Top Challenger: Waverly Shell Rock

I almost took WSR as the favorite, but I think with what Western Dubuque has done the last decade they deserve to be the favorite as they were clearly the best team in the district and I suspect that they will just reload. WSR has very young last year and play probably the toughest schedule in the state to start the season. Now they need to do better against a still very tough schedule but I think they will. I think that Decorah will be the same old tough Decorah team, but they don’t quite have the horses they did in the past. I don’t know what to think of Marion, I think as a program they are improving but it may be a bit of a rebuild this year.

District 3

Favorite: Xavier
Top Challenger: North Scott

In my eyes I see North Scott and Xavier as co-favorites, I took Xavier as they won the game last year and both teams seem to be returning about the same amount of experience, although I have little doubt that both teams will just reload. Both of these teams were in a group of about 8 teams that seemed like state contenders but both just fell short of that goal and I would guess will be motivated to get back to the dome. I am also interested to see what CCA looks like under Lance Pedersen, I would take them as a playoff team as well.

District 4

Favorite: Gilbert
Top Challenger: Pella

This is a tough district to predict because overall there is so much parity. I am going with Gilbert as the favorite, last year they started 6-0 and might have been ranked 1st in the state only to lose their last 3 games and miss the playoffs. They return a ton of production from that team and I think get past the late season slide. I took Pella 2nd as they really came back last year after 2 or 3 years of seasons that probably didn’t meet their standards, they lose some but return enough to be penciled in second. I think B-F and Carlisle are definite challengers as well, but B-F lost a bunch and Carlisle struggled last year but played with some youth in this very tough district. Newton probably takes a step back but I don’t think drop off too far.

District 5

Favorite: Ballard
Top Challenger: Indianola

Four really good teams in this district, and I could see any of them winning this district and it also wouldn’t surprise me to see co-champions of this district. I took Ballard the key for them I think is consistency there were games where it appears like they just didn’t show up, if they are more consistent, they are my favorites. Indianola is kind of in the same boat, inconsistent but I also really like what they bring back especially defensively. North Polk had two 1 point losses in the regular season and then made it to the dome, but have some holes to fill. ADM loses some great athletes but I also think bringing in an experience coach after the situation last year might be the most important thing that they did.

District 6

Favorite: Lewis Central
Top Challenger: Norwalk

Lewis Central is probably the easiest favorite to pick in 4A I love what they bring back from their title team, do they have a few players to replace yes, but just like a few of the other top 4A teams I am confident that they will do so. I took Norwalk two but I think that Glenwood and maybe even Winterset could get that #2 spot. I think that they have the best experience returning of those three teams.



Top 10

1. Lewis Central
2. Xavier
3. North Scott
4. Gilbert
5. Western Dubuque
6. Pella
7. Ballard
8. Indianola
9. North Polk
10. Waverly Shell Rock
 
after reviewing the 4a schedules for aug 30, i see glenwood plays sioux city east...just curious how those 2 teams ended playing each other? i dont believe that matchup has happen in decades.
 
Since this was written I believe Dreshaun Ross of Fort Dodge was injured and will miss the football season and possibly most of the wrestling season—a tough blow for him/Fort Dodge.
 
yes...ross had a dislocated surgery during the us marine core national wrestling tournament at fargo north dakota... ross had successful surgery, which sidelines an athlete for usally 4 months...he will probaly not only miss football season, and most of wrestling...i too agree he will be missed, division 1 athlete..flowrestling had him ranked #2 wrestler at 215lb,,,and rivals has him 4 star with offers from Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Purdue.

i can remember back in the 60,s , when harlan had some great wrestling teams, one of the best in the state, fort dodge all were very dominate back then. harlan dominance disappeared starting in the early 70s,, lost their great coach bill mcneal, that went back to his home town to coach, cedar rapids jefferson i bleieve. He was inducted into the Iowa High School Wrestling Hall of Fame in 1981, and then again in the National Wrestling Hall of Fame in 1998. bill was by far the great wrestling coach harlan had since then, and probably ever
 
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Here are my thoughts for class 4A this season, as alway more to get discussion going more than anything. Last year 4A was a class where any of the top 10 or so teams could beat each other on any Friday night, which lead to great games every week. I think there may be a clearer favorite this year, but still a bunch of really good teams right behind them.

District 1

Favorite: Fort Dodge
Top Challenger: Spencer

This district last year was the weakest overall and I expect the same this year as well. I am taking Fort Dodge as the favorite they were relatively young last year, and they have the best player in the district and maybe the state in 4A. After that I think you could go a few different ways. I think Spencer has more experience returning then LeMars but the Bulldogs would probably be the other team I considered for the two spot. Overall I see this district as messy.

District 2

Favorite: Western Dubuque
Top Challenger: Waverly Shell Rock

I almost took WSR as the favorite, but I think with what Western Dubuque has done the last decade they deserve to be the favorite as they were clearly the best team in the district and I suspect that they will just reload. WSR has very young last year and play probably the toughest schedule in the state to start the season. Now they need to do better against a still very tough schedule but I think they will. I think that Decorah will be the same old tough Decorah team, but they don’t quite have the horses they did in the past. I don’t know what to think of Marion, I think as a program they are improving but it may be a bit of a rebuild this year.

District 3

Favorite: Xavier
Top Challenger: North Scott

In my eyes I see North Scott and Xavier as co-favorites, I took Xavier as they won the game last year and both teams seem to be returning about the same amount of experience, although I have little doubt that both teams will just reload. Both of these teams were in a group of about 8 teams that seemed like state contenders but both just fell short of that goal and I would guess will be motivated to get back to the dome. I am also interested to see what CCA looks like under Lance Pedersen, I would take them as a playoff team as well.

District 4

Favorite: Gilbert
Top Challenger: Pella

This is a tough district to predict because overall there is so much parity. I am going with Gilbert as the favorite, last year they started 6-0 and might have been ranked 1st in the state only to lose their last 3 games and miss the playoffs. They return a ton of production from that team and I think get past the late season slide. I took Pella 2nd as they really came back last year after 2 or 3 years of seasons that probably didn’t meet their standards, they lose some but return enough to be penciled in second. I think B-F and Carlisle are definite challengers as well, but B-F lost a bunch and Carlisle struggled last year but played with some youth in this very tough district. Newton probably takes a step back but I don’t think drop off too far.

District 5

Favorite: Ballard
Top Challenger: Indianola

Four really good teams in this district, and I could see any of them winning this district and it also wouldn’t surprise me to see co-champions of this district. I took Ballard the key for them I think is consistency there were games where it appears like they just didn’t show up, if they are more consistent, they are my favorites. Indianola is kind of in the same boat, inconsistent but I also really like what they bring back especially defensively. North Polk had two 1 point losses in the regular season and then made it to the dome, but have some holes to fill. ADM loses some great athletes but I also think bringing in an experience coach after the situation last year might be the most important thing that they did.

District 6

Favorite: Lewis Central
Top Challenger: Norwalk

Lewis Central is probably the easiest favorite to pick in 4A I love what they bring back from their title team, do they have a few players to replace yes, but just like a few of the other top 4A teams I am confident that they will do so. I took Norwalk two but I think that Glenwood and maybe even Winterset could get that #2 spot. I think that they have the best experience returning of those three teams.



Top 10

1. Lewis Central
2. Xavier
3. North Scott
4. Gilbert
5. Western Dubuque
6. Pella
7. Ballard
8. Indianola
9. North Polk
10. Waverly Shell Rock
lewis central returns brady hertzel at qb, be a senior this yr. brady had 63 % passing , 2600yds, and 26 tds. the titan lose their top 3 receivers with curtis witte going to wayne state for college football career. the titans also loose their top rusher, kamdyn cross...they do return brady patlan , an excellant rusher. the titans loose a lot on defense, around 7 players, that could be a factor going into the new season. Retired harlan,s coach curt
bladt allways stated, offense sells tickets, defense wins games

harlan has 4 sophs starting..1 freshman..when i saw the team coming back a yr ago , looked like they had most of the the team coming back...the younger guys must have won spots over some older players that were starters last yr. , harlans defense coach is excited about the defense this year....they will need it against the cb lewis central
 
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Here are my thoughts for class 4A this season, as alway more to get discussion going more than anything. Last year 4A was a class where any of the top 10 or so teams could beat each other on any Friday night, which lead to great games every week. I think there may be a clearer favorite this year, but still a bunch of really good teams right behind them.
I thought it would be fun to go back and see how your predictions turned out. (Not trying to call you out but these are the only 4A predictions I could find)
District 1

Favorite: Fort Dodge
Top Challenger: Spencer

This district last year was the weakest overall and I expect the same this year as well. I am taking Fort Dodge as the favorite they were relatively young last year, and they have the best player in the district and maybe the state in 4A. After that I think you could go a few different ways. I think Spencer has more experience returning then LeMars but the Bulldogs would probably be the other team I considered for the two spot. Overall I see this district as messy.
Champion: Spencer
Runner-up: Fort Dodge

Fort Dodge lost Dreshaun Ross which is hard to overcome, but still made the playoffs
District 2

Favorite: Western Dubuque
Top Challenger: Waverly Shell Rock

I almost took WSR as the favorite, but I think with what Western Dubuque has done the last decade they deserve to be the favorite as they were clearly the best team in the district and I suspect that they will just reload. WSR has very young last year and play probably the toughest schedule in the state to start the season. Now they need to do better against a still very tough schedule but I think they will. I think that Decorah will be the same old tough Decorah team, but they don’t quite have the horses they did in the past. I don’t know what to think of Marion, I think as a program they are improving but it may be a bit of a rebuild this year.
Champion: Decorah
Runner-up: WSR
At-large: West Dub

Decorah might be the most surprising team of the year going undefeated. I believe they lost their starting QB late in the year though.
District 3

Favorite: Xavier
Top Challenger: North Scott

In my eyes I see North Scott and Xavier as co-favorites, I took Xavier as they won the game last year and both teams seem to be returning about the same amount of experience, although I have little doubt that both teams will just reload. Both of these teams were in a group of about 8 teams that seemed like state contenders but both just fell short of that goal and I would guess will be motivated to get back to the dome. I am also interested to see what CCA looks like under Lance Pedersen, I would take them as a playoff team as well.
Champion: North Scott
Runner-up: Xavier
At-Large: CCA

This ended in a three-way tie at the top.
District 4

Favorite: Gilbert
Top Challenger: Pella

This is a tough district to predict because overall there is so much parity. I am going with Gilbert as the favorite, last year they started 6-0 and might have been ranked 1st in the state only to lose their last 3 games and miss the playoffs. They return a ton of production from that team and I think get past the late season slide. I took Pella 2nd as they really came back last year after 2 or 3 years of seasons that probably didn’t meet their standards, they lose some but return enough to be penciled in second. I think B-F and Carlisle are definite challengers as well, but B-F lost a bunch and Carlisle struggled last year but played with some youth in this very tough district. Newton probably takes a step back but I don’t think drop off too far.
Champion: Gilbert
Runner-up: Pella
At-large: Newton

I think this is how it ended up: They both went 4-1 in the district, but Gilbert has the head-to-head tie-breaker.
District 5

Favorite: Ballard
Top Challenger: Indianola

Four really good teams in this district, and I could see any of them winning this district and it also wouldn’t surprise me to see co-champions of this district. I took Ballard the key for them I think is consistency there were games where it appears like they just didn’t show up, if they are more consistent, they are my favorites. Indianola is kind of in the same boat, inconsistent but I also really like what they bring back especially defensively. North Polk had two 1 point losses in the regular season and then made it to the dome, but have some holes to fill. ADM loses some great athletes but I also think bringing in an experience coach after the situation last year might be the most important thing that they did.
Champion: North Polk
Runner-up: ADM
At-large: Ballard
District 6

Favorite: Lewis Central
Top Challenger: Norwalk

Lewis Central is probably the easiest favorite to pick in 4A I love what they bring back from their title team, do they have a few players to replace yes, but just like a few of the other top 4A teams I am confident that they will do so. I took Norwalk two but I think that Glenwood and maybe even Winterset could get that #2 spot. I think that they have the best experience returning of those three teams.
Champion: Lewis Central
Runner-up: Norwalk
Top 10

1. Lewis Central
2. Xavier
3. North Scott
4. Gilbert
5. Western Dubuque
6. Pella
7. Ballard
8. Indianola
9. North Polk
10. Waverly Shell Rock
RPI FINAL TOP 10:

1. North Polk
2. Decorah
3. Pella
4. Lewis Central
5. ADM
6. Gilbert
7. Western Dubuque
8. Xavier
9. North Scott
10. WSR


Does anyone want to make predictions for the playoffs?
 
My predictions

Pod A:
1. North Polk over 16. Fort Dodge
8. Xavier over 12. Norwalk
8. Xavier over 1. North Polk

Pod B:
2. Decorah over 15. Newton
9. North Scott over 7. West Dub
9. North Scott over 2. Decorah

Pod C:
3. Pella over 11. CCA
6. Gilbert over 10. WSR
3. Pella over 6. Gilbert

Pod D:
4. Lewis Central over 13. Ballard
5. ADM over 14. Spencer
4. Lewis Central over 5. ADM

Semifinals:
3. Pella v 9. North Scott - Pella wins
4. Lewis Central v 8. Xavier - Xavier wins

Finals:
3. Pella vs 8. Xavier - Xavier wins

(Full transparency I am a Xavier fan)
4A is wide open and you can argue for 8-9 teams to go all the way.
 
You are correct, Decorah's starting QB broke his collar bone while getting sacked in the W. Dubuque game.
 
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watched lewis central lose to pella...i thought the game might a toss up...i saw lewis central play harlan, and harlan play algona and seargent blff.. my thougts after watching those 3 games...sbl and algona were clearly more dominant teams against harlan than lewis central......
 
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