BCMoore Rankings: Preseason
- Thread starter bcmoore87
- Start date
2A rankings.
Rankings are 100% last years power scores.
Southeast Valley did not exist. They have no statistics. How can they be ranked 36th....when they have no history. Shouldn't they be ranked last because of no available data? BM, you aren't actually using your mind to rank them are you?
Rankings are 100% last years power scores.
Southeast Valley did not exist. They have no statistics. How can they be ranked 36th....when they have no history. Shouldn't they be ranked last because of no available data? BM, you aren't actually using your mind to rank them are you?
http://bcmoorerankings.com/2014/08/ia-fb-schedule-changes/
I did a resync with iahsaa.org schedules this morning. Last sync was on April 5.
Summer schedule changes:
1. Akron-Westfield vs Hinton is now on Saturday, August 30, at Morningside. Previously the game was scheduled to be on a Friday at Hinton.
2. The September 5 Wapsie Valley vs South Winneshiek game is now being played at Upper Iowa. Previously the game was scheduled to be played at Calmar.
3. CR Jefferson @ Cedar Falls is now scheduled for Thursday, 10/02.
4. CR Pairie @ Iowa City High is now scheduled for Thursday, 10/02.
Edit: fixed format
This post was edited on 8/9 11:10 AM by bcmoore87
I did a resync with iahsaa.org schedules this morning. Last sync was on April 5.
Summer schedule changes:
1. Akron-Westfield vs Hinton is now on Saturday, August 30, at Morningside. Previously the game was scheduled to be on a Friday at Hinton.
2. The September 5 Wapsie Valley vs South Winneshiek game is now being played at Upper Iowa. Previously the game was scheduled to be played at Calmar.
3. CR Jefferson @ Cedar Falls is now scheduled for Thursday, 10/02.
4. CR Pairie @ Iowa City High is now scheduled for Thursday, 10/02.
Edit: fixed format
This post was edited on 8/9 11:10 AM by bcmoore87
http://bcmoorerankings.com/2014/08/1893-2013-iahs-football-score-database/
Many scores have been added to 1893-2013 Iowa High School football database.
http://iah.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/comp/
Database now tracks 1223 unique high school football teams and contains 62,269 scores.
If you have scores to share, please sent email to bcmoore87@bcmoorerankings.com
Many scores have been added to 1893-2013 Iowa High School football database.
http://iah.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/comp/
Database now tracks 1223 unique high school football teams and contains 62,269 scores.
If you have scores to share, please sent email to bcmoore87@bcmoorerankings.com
I still see Wilton, Van Meter, Clayton Ridge, and West Marshall in the top 10.
MUCH MUCH too high.
Van Meter cannot compete with the better teams this year without Brandon Brittain. He was the straw that stirred the drink in VM.
Wilton lost pretty much its entire offensive production team, and an all-state OL.
Clayton Ridge lost an absolute ton of skill production, but does return a fair solid OL.
West Marshall lost Ferch. That's enough to drop out.
Computers do not take that stuff into the equation.
MUCH MUCH too high.
Van Meter cannot compete with the better teams this year without Brandon Brittain. He was the straw that stirred the drink in VM.
Wilton lost pretty much its entire offensive production team, and an all-state OL.
Clayton Ridge lost an absolute ton of skill production, but does return a fair solid OL.
West Marshall lost Ferch. That's enough to drop out.
Computers do not take that stuff into the equation.
And after a week or two, the computer will sift that out. Why do people get so high-strung about preseason polls or early season computer rankings?
Give the computer some time to sort itself out. Look at the early season computer rankings(power scores) as that particular team's "tradition rating". Of course teams change from year to year. That's why the games are played and subsequent rankings/ratings move accordingly. Give it a little time.
> Any specific reasons for Mason City's relatively high ranking?
Analysis is based entirely on 2013. Model is trying to fit Mason City 20-30 points below Centennial, Dowling, Southeast Polk, and Waukee. Additionally, the model is trying to fit Mason City 40 points above Hoover.
So, in doing the statistical fit, Mason City may be overrated (especially if you believe Centennial, Dowling, SE Polk and Waukee could have named the score).
Analysis is based entirely on 2013. Model is trying to fit Mason City 20-30 points below Centennial, Dowling, Southeast Polk, and Waukee. Additionally, the model is trying to fit Mason City 40 points above Hoover.
So, in doing the statistical fit, Mason City may be overrated (especially if you believe Centennial, Dowling, SE Polk and Waukee could have named the score).
> Look at the early season computer rankings(power scores) as that particular team's "tradition rating".
I like your idea's screwloose.
http://bcmoorerankings.com/2010/07/tradition-one-year-tradition/
The headline number is that the computer model can pick about 70% of games correctly based solely on last year's analysis.
Edit: Fixed format
This post was edited on 8/10 7:26 AM by bcmoore87
I like your idea's screwloose.
http://bcmoorerankings.com/2010/07/tradition-one-year-tradition/
The headline number is that the computer model can pick about 70% of games correctly based solely on last year's analysis.
Edit: Fixed format
This post was edited on 8/10 7:26 AM by bcmoore87
> He was the straw that stirred the drink in VM.
very eloquent Jacksonian reference
> Wilton lost pretty much its entire offensive production team, and an all-state OL.
> Clayton Ridge lost an absolute ton of skill production, but does return a fair solid OL.
> West Marshall lost Ferch. That's enough to drop out.
All good points; thanks for your insights that the computer does not have. Generally week 3 rankings are unbiased and week 5 rankings reach season-long accuracy. Additionally, 86% of the champions are in the top 5 of the week 5 bcmoorerankings (2000-2012).
very eloquent Jacksonian reference
> Wilton lost pretty much its entire offensive production team, and an all-state OL.
> Clayton Ridge lost an absolute ton of skill production, but does return a fair solid OL.
> West Marshall lost Ferch. That's enough to drop out.
All good points; thanks for your insights that the computer does not have. Generally week 3 rankings are unbiased and week 5 rankings reach season-long accuracy. Additionally, 86% of the champions are in the top 5 of the week 5 bcmoorerankings (2000-2012).
Turkey Valley ranked 3rd in 8 man seems pretty high. Lost a good group of seniors. They still have good talent but they have a lot to prove. Elkader Central is going to be good in northeast Iowa as well. Don't sleep on Kee High. Don Bosco and Springville are ranked where they should be. Getting closer by the minute and that is great. You really have to love this time of year.
Brent how does the computer rank teams dropping from 11 man to 8 man? I.e. Guthrie Center was a mediocre class A team last year and computer has them at #6. Do they get a boost just because they were in a larger class?
Brent, you won't have to break 4A away from the other classes any more, not that there's more games between 4A and the other classes. On top of that, with the East/West split in 4A becoming fuzzy, we should see a better comprehension of everybody's strength as the season rolls along.
It is safe to say with more integration of teams becoming connected by playing in a larger cross section, the better the computer will sort everything out eventually. Correct?
It is safe to say with more integration of teams becoming connected by playing in a larger cross section, the better the computer will sort everything out eventually. Correct?
> Brent, you won't have to break 4A away from the other
classes any more, not that there's more games between 4A and the other
classes. On top of that, with the East/West split in 4A becoming fuzzy,
we should see a better comprehension of everybody's strength as the
season rolls along.
> It is safe to say with more integration of
teams becoming connected by playing in a larger cross section, the
better the computer will sort everything out eventually. Correct?
Very good points. I will work on the display. Also, the 4A championship game will have a rational, unbiased pre-game estimate. (However, I think the computer picked the 4A champion correctly about 65-75% correctly based on a geographic-parity assumption, need to look back at the data to get the official %).
classes any more, not that there's more games between 4A and the other
classes. On top of that, with the East/West split in 4A becoming fuzzy,
we should see a better comprehension of everybody's strength as the
season rolls along.
> It is safe to say with more integration of
teams becoming connected by playing in a larger cross section, the
better the computer will sort everything out eventually. Correct?
Very good points. I will work on the display. Also, the 4A championship game will have a rational, unbiased pre-game estimate. (However, I think the computer picked the 4A champion correctly about 65-75% correctly based on a geographic-parity assumption, need to look back at the data to get the official %).
> Interesting idea- has anyone tried to form an actual tradition rating? Like using ten years of data or twenty years? I know it would be a big project but it would be interesting to see.
100+ years of data
http://iah.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/comp/
100+ years of data
http://iah.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/comp/
Regina was an EIHC middle of pack/doormat team for the majority of the time they were in the conference.
That probably doesn't help their power ranking.
Since 2004, however, they may be the best team in the state of Iowa.
Armstrong-Ringstead is close. But I do not count 8-man teams.
That probably doesn't help their power ranking.
Since 2004, however, they may be the best team in the state of Iowa.
Armstrong-Ringstead is close. But I do not count 8-man teams.
Regina was close to dropping football in the 90's, like school board meeting dropping it. Good thing they relocated and became private..... 
Ahh, you missed the wink.... some of the public-private dead horse beaters have claimed that being a private school in a metro area guarantees success.... so they must have moved if they were that bad....
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