BC Moore Playoff Prediction

[KidSilverhair]

Using BC Moore's power rankings after Week 6, here's how district champion/RPI seeding could shake out in 3A. These RPIs do not include any OWP or OOWP outside of 3A; I didn't go that far down the rabbit hole, only adjusting the remaining games within 3A with wins/losses based on BC Moore.

1. Lewis Central (D-1 champ), .7289
2. Xavier (D-4 champ), .6929
3. Solon (D-6 champ), .6844
4. Sergeant Bluff-Luton (D-1 champ), .6824
5. Norwalk (D-8 champ), .6729
6. Pella (D-7 champ), .6509; gets 6 seed over DC-G by head-to-head
7. Dallas Center-Grimes (D-2 champ), .6544
8. Independence (D-3 champ), .6441
9. Western Dubuque, .6415
10. Glenwood, .6402
11. North Scott (D-5 champ), .6380
12. Carlisle, .6337
13. Washington, .6181
14. Harlan, .6160
15. Davenport Assumption, .5918
16. Oskaloosa, .5744

(At 17 would be Mount Pleasant, .5729, but they did not play Oskaloosa for a chance to jump them into the top 16.)

A straight 16-1 bracket can almost be made:

16 Oskaloosa at 1 Lewis Central
9 Western Dubuque at 8 Independence
---
12 Carlisle at 5 Norwalk
13 Washington at 4 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
----------
14 Harlan at 3 Solon
11 North Scott at 6 Pella
---
10 Glenwood at 7 Dallas Center-Grimes
15 Davenport Assumption at 2 Xavier

That Carlisle-Norwalk game would be a rematch between a district champion and a district runner-up, so the state would rearrange things to prevent that. You could have North Scott at Norwalk and then Carlisle at Pella (that's also a rematch, but it's not a district rematch, so that's allowed - same with Davenport Assumption and Xavier).

So let's say this:

16 Oskaloosa at 1 Lewis Central
9 Western Dubuque at 8 Independence
---
11 North Scott at 5 Norwalk
13 Washington at 4 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
----------
14 Harlan at 3 Solon
12 Carlisle at 6 Pella
---
10 Glenwood at 7 Dallas Center-Grimes
15 Davenport Assumption at 2 Xavier

Geographically it's not terrible; Oskaloosa has a long 1st round trip, as would either Western Dubuque or Indee in the second round, and if North Scott wins the opener that would be a long way to SBL. But look at your potential second round matchups - Indee at Lewis Central; Norwalk at SBL; Pella at Solon!!; Dallas Center-Grimes at Xavier. And the top four RPIs are darn good; Lewis Central, Xavier, Solon, and SBL. That's be a fantastic Dome foursome.

 

[KidSilverhair]

We'll see how much the state wants to look at travel when they set up the first round. If Western Dubuque drops to the 9 seed, though, it's not likely the bracket would allow them AND Xavier AND Lewis Central to survive to the Dome.

My seeding above obviously uses BC Moore's rankings to indicate Xavier defeats Western Dubuque tomorrow. If that game goes the other way, here's how the top 16 changes:

1. Lewis Central (D-1 champ) .7289
2. Solon (D-6 champ) .6840
3. Sergeant Bluff-Luton (D-1 champ) .6824
4. Western Dubuque (D-4 champ) .6795
5. Norwalk (D-8 champ) .6779
6. Xavier .6549
7. Pella (D-7 champ) .6509 (again gets the 7 over DCG by head-to-head)
8. Dallas Center-Grimes (D-2 champ) .6544
9. Independence (D-3 champ) .6437
10. North Scott (D-5 champ) .6428
11. Glenwood .6402
12. Carlisle .6337
13. Washington .6181
14. Harlan .6160
15. Davenport Assumption .5881
16. Oskaloosa .5744

And the true seeded bracket would be:

16 Oskaloosa at 1 Lewis Central
9 Independence at 8 Dallas Center-Grimes
---
12 Carlisle at 5 Norwalk
13 Washington at 4 Western Dubuque
----------
14 Harlan at 3 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
11 Glenwood at 6 Xavier
---
10 North Scott at 7 Pella
15 Assumption at 2 Solon

This bracket can't work, as not only would you have the Carlisle/Norwalk district thing, Independence needs to have a home game and Xavier can't host (even as the 6 seed, they didn't win the district). I think you'd send North Scott to Dallas Center-Grimes, maybe, Glenwood to Pella, and swap Carlisle and Washington. Independence would get their home game and face ... Xavier. I mean, regardless of what happens tomorrow in Epworth, somebody is going to win their district and end up hosting either Western Dubuque or Xavier, which is a heck of a prize for winning your district.

That would look something like this:

16 Oskaloosa at 1 Lewis Central
10 North Scott at 8 Dallas Center-Grimes
---
13 Washington at 5 Norwalk
12 Carlisle at 4 Western Dubuque
----------
14 Harlan at 3 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
6 Xavier at 9 Independence
---
11 Glenwood at 7 Pella
15 Assumption at 2 Solon

That's a fairly reasonable first-round geographically (except for Osky-Lewis Central, but that's not completely cross-state), but it sets up some potential doozies in the second round (Xavier traveling to Sergeant Bluff? Glenwood going to Davenport? North Scott to Lewis Central?). So I don't know ... it ain't perfect, I never claimed I was.

 

[JansenMustGo]

Things will change a lot after tomorrow night. In 3A district 1 here is what will happen

Heelan 7 LeMars 0
Storm Lake 13 Denison 7
Spencer 21 SBL 7

 

[paednoch23]

pella wont be in the playoffs this year huge falloff.

 

[fmclonefan]

Apparently the Pella team missed that memo. I'm thinking they will be in the playoffs and will be a tough out. They are finally healthy and hitting on all cylinders.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Western Dubuque does get the win over Xavier, so now I’m considering that second RPI list I posted. Lewis Central’s loss is possibly going to mix things up, too ... although they probably are going to stay at the top when all is said and done.

Xavier is still going to be probably top 6 in RPI and travel to, most likely, Independence in round one. Independence will likely be undefeated. That actually looks like a really appealing playoff matchup.

 

[ghost80]

Western Dubuque does get the win over Xavier, so now I’m considering that second RPI list I posted. Lewis Central’s loss is possibly going to mix things up, too ... although they probably are going to stay at the top when all is said and done.

Xavier is still going to be probably top 6 in RPI and travel to, most likely, Independence in round one. Independence will likely be undefeated. That actually looks like a really appealing playoff matchup.

Had a great laugh this morning.

Last week Moores top 3 were

1. LC
2. Xavier
3. WD
14. Harlan

Last night #14 Harlan beats #1 LC..... and #3 WD beats #2 Xavier

How does that shake things out in this weeks ratings?

1. LC
2. Xavier
4. WD
11. Harlan

How can you support any system that would leave #2 Xavier at #2 while dropping the team that beat them from #3 to #4.

Comical. The emperor is still naked.