GR wins if:
Kickbush keeps throwing darts, and blowing by defenders. Distributes the ball better than the other guards, leader of the team. AP will have a hard time keeping him in check, quick as Waller and stronger than Shipper.
Smoldt gets others involved, in a possession game where shots and percentages matter, will shots get forced or will it be about winning. Currently running the highest shot per game average than anyone in the last 4 years at 13.3 shots per game. Has taken 25% of all Rebel attempts and has 75 more attempt than the 2nd highest on the team.
Dinsdale can slow up Cooper. Does everything but score for the Rebels in this game.
Clark is the x-factor in this game. The interior passing game of the Rebels and Clark is the benefactor here. AP will really struggle if the Rebels get Clark active out of the gate,
Pierce has been underutilized all season, draws attention and starts the interior passing game. Averaged 12.8 shot attempts per game as a sophomore and is down to 9.5 attempts as a senior. Generally gets involved in tight or close games, he has to deliverer if asked to, even though has been a non-factor all season.
Holman another x-factor. Plays a big role here as the zone breaker, if his bombs are connecting going to be a hard win for AP.
AP wins if:
They don't let GR dictate tempo. Waller and Shipper should easily handle GR's press.
Cooper really tough matchup for GR. If Dinsdale isn't a factor against him defensively, going to be a double bonus for AP. Points from Cooper and whoever guards Dinsdale defensively gets to cheat the post and help Ellis with Pierce.
Waller and Shipper vs Kickbush Smoldt. If that guard combo plays GR guard combo to close to a push game it's over for the Rebels.
Schedule and Coaching comes into play. GR has played a pretty soft schedule playing in only about 3 or 4 tough games. Winning games by 20-30 where they should of probably doubled scored most. AP appears to be more battle tested. AP plays better team basketball and are well coached. The addition of Berkey to the staff will bring plenty of ideas on how to slow up GR's high powered attack.
Should be a great game, and a packed house at Reinbeck.