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KidSilverhair

KidSilverhair

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Aug 31, 2008
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www.thirdandamile.blogspot.com
Obviously I've done this for a while for Class 4A (previously 3A). So now that the classes have been rejiggered and everything, and there's some interesting teams in my area in Class 3A, I thought I might run the numbers for that, too. It's easier with only one game left!

All the 3A district champions are decided, and there's only two districts with anything left to decide at all.


DISTRICT 1​

Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley has won the district.

Sergeant Bluff-Luton takes second with a win over Carroll.

A Carroll win plus a Sioux Center win over MOC-Floyd Valley creates a three-way tie for second, decided by RPI.



DISTRICT 2​

Humboldt has won the district. Nevada has locked down second place.



DISTRICT 3​

West Delaware has won the title, with Independence safely in second place.



DISTRICT 4​

Benton has the district title. Davenport Assumption has ensured second place.



DISTRICT 5​

Solon has won the district.

Grinnell takes second by beating Fairfield.

A Fairfield win plus a Washington loss gives Fairfield second place; a Fairfield win plus a Washington win creates a three-way tie between Grinnell/Fairfield/Washington, decided by RPI.



DISTRICT 6​

Harlan has the title, with ADM locking down second place.


As far as at-large spots go, let's assume Sergeant Bluff-Luton and Grinnell win to take second in their districts. Creston has a good shot at an at-large, as well as Central DeWitt, perhaps Hampton-Dumont-CAL, maybe Sioux Center.

A Carroll win over Sergeant Bluff-Luton could put Carroll in the at-large picture. An Algona upset of Humboldt very likely puts Algona in. Grinnell could be in the running even with a loss to Fairfield.
 
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KidSilverhair said:
Obviously I've done this for a while for Class 4A (previously 3A). So now that the classes have been rejiggered and everything, and there's some interesting teams in my area in Class 3A, I thought I might run the numbers for that, too. It's easier with only one game left!

All the 3A district champions are decided, and there's only two districts with anything left to decide at all.


DISTRICT 1​

Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley has won the district.

Sergeant Bluff-Luton takes second with a win over Carroll.

A Carroll win plus a Sioux Center win over MOC-Floyd Valley creates a three-way tie for second, decided by RPI.



DISTRICT 2​

Humboldt has won the district. Nevada has locked down second place.



DISTRICT 3​

West Delaware has won the title, with Independence safely in second place.



DISTRICT 4​

Benton has the district title. Davenport Assumption has ensured second place.



DISTRICT 5​

Solon has won the district.

Grinnell takes second by beating Fairfield.

A Fairfield win plus a Washington loss gives Fairfield second place; a Fairfield win plus a Washington win creates a three-way tie between Grinnell/Fairfield/Washington, decided by RPI.



DISTRICT 6​

Harlan has the title, with ADM locking down second place.


As far as at-large spots go, let's assume Sergeant Bluff-Luton and Grinnell win to take second in their districts. Creston has a good shot at an at-large, as well as Central DeWitt, perhaps Hampton-Dumont-CAL, maybe Sioux Center.

A Carroll win over Sergeant Bluff-Luton could put Carroll in the at-large picture. An Algona upset of Humboldt very likely puts Algona in. Grinnell could be in the running even with a loss to Fairfield.
Click to expand...
Excellent work. Regarding Grinnell, I had no idea that Washington could (and very likely will) create a 3 way tie if grinnell cant handle fairfield. Grinnell should easily handle Fairfiled. The Grinnell vs Solon game was way closer than the score indicated. Grinnell was handling Solon pretty well until some significant mistakes and unfortunately dropped passes that would have put Grinnell up at half instead of trailing at the half. Despite the loss Grinnell is playing some great football right now.
 
paednoch23 said:
Excellent work. Regarding Grinnell, I had no idea that Washington could (and very likely will) create a 3 way tie if grinnell cant handle fairfield. Grinnell should easily handle Fairfiled. The Grinnell vs Solon game was way closer than the score indicated. Grinnell was handling Solon pretty well until some significant mistakes and unfortunately dropped passes that would have put Grinnell up at half instead of trailing at the half. Despite the loss Grinnell is playing some great football right now.
Click to expand...

Yep, if Fairfield beats Grinnell and Washington wins over West Burlington, they’ll all have 3-2 district records with Fairfield over Grinnell, Grinnell over Washington, and Washington over Fairfield - so that tie goes to RPI. Washington’s RPI was pretty low going into Week 8, but their win over Fairfield will give them a boost (while knocking Fairfield back some). While Grinnell also lost, since it was to Solon that shouldn’t hurt them as much. We’ll know more today.
 
KidSilverhair said:
Yep, if Fairfield beats Grinnell and Washington wins over West Burlington, they’ll all have 3-2 district records with Fairfield over Grinnell, Grinnell over Washington, and Washington over Fairfield - so that tie goes to RPI. Washington’s RPI was pretty low going into Week 8, but their win over Fairfield will give them a boost (while knocking Fairfield back some). While Grinnell also lost, since it was to Solon that shouldn’t hurt them as much. We’ll know more today.
Click to expand...
Grinnell's win over Benton seems to have gotten more significant each week. I forgot to mention. District 2. That district was a VERY tough district. Lots of fairly good teams in that district
 
I've looked everywhere. In 3A. Winners and top RPI runner ups get home field. But how do they determine matchups? Is it possible That a district runner up gets paired against an at large? While a district winner gets paired with a strong district runner up?
 
That’s still a mystery. They will do 4 4-team pods, which one would hope would each have one of the four top seeds (to prevent one of them knocking off another before the semifinals). But other than that …

I believe the IHSAA will try to stick to seeding as much as they can, but geography is a cruel mistress, and they‘re not going to match (for example) BHRV with Assumption if that’s what the seeding says.

It’s possible (likely, even) that some of the at-larges will have better records/RPI than some of the runners-up, which might mean an at-large plays at a runner-up for Round 1. Who knows?
 
Last edited:
Here’s the latest RPI ranking.

  1. BHRV (in)
  2. Humboldt (in)
  3. Harlan (in)
  4. West Delaware (in)
  5. Solon (in)
  6. Nevada (in)
  7. Independence (in)
  8. Sergeant Bluff-Luton (in with a win over Carroll)
  9. Benton Community (in)
  10. Algona (vs Humboldt)
  11. ADM (in)
  12. Grinnell (in with a win over Fairfield)
  13. Davenport Assumption (in)
  14. Sioux Center (vs MOC-Floyd Valley)
  15. Creston (vs Atlantic)
  16. Hampton-DuPont-CAL (vs South Tama)
  17. Ballard (vs Gilbert)
  18. Mount Vernon (vs Vinton/Shellsburg)
  19. Central DeWitt (vs Benton)
  20. Charles City (vs West Delaware)
If we assume wins by SBL and Grinnell, the likely at-larges could be Sioux Center, Creston, and then Hampton-Dumont-CAL/Ballard/maybe Algona, depending how far Algona drops with a loss to Humboldt. I think we can assume SBL would almost certainly take second in D-1 by RPI even with a loss & a tie with Carroll/Sioux Center. Mount Vernon needs a lot of upsets to get into the four at-large spots.
 
I truly think that the top 16 will be the the 16 that make the playoffs, not in that exact order, but I don't see anyone falling out.
 
Kind of rough for Ballard. They just smoked Algona, but I don't think there will be enough movement this week even if they win and Algona loses to Humboldt.

I'm betting that's right that the top 16 here are going to be the same 16 that make the playoffs.
 
Getting ahead of ourselves, here's how I'd do the pods and matchups if it holds with these 16 teams:

Pod 1
Sioux Center vs. BHRV
Algona vs. SBL

Pod 2
Creston vs. Harlan
ADM vs. Nevada

Pod 3
Hampton-Dumont-CAL vs. Humboldt
Grinnell vs. Benton

Pod 4
Independence vs. Solon
Davenport Assumption vs. West Delaware
 
By the way things are written, if the order stayed the same or at least the top teams the home teams in round one should be

BHRV
Humboldt
Harlan
West Delaware
Solon
Benton
Nevada
Independence

Even though geographically your pods make a lot of sense, SBL currently wouldn't be a home team.
 
PNation said:
By the way things are written, if the order stayed the same or at least the top teams the home teams in round one should be

BHRV
Humboldt
Harlan
West Delaware
Solon
Benton
Nevada
Independence

Even though geographically your pods make a lot of sense, SBL currently wouldn't be a home team.
Click to expand...
"The 6 district champions and 2 district runner up will have the opportunity to host. The 2 district runner ups with the highest RPI will be provided the opportunity to host."

Hmm I didn't know about those rules. But I think there's a pretty decent chance that SBL passes Independence in RPI this week, since SBL is so close to them right now (.6206 vs. .6198) and they play a slightly tougher RPI opponent this week (Carroll vs Center Point Urbana)... We'll see.
 
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Remember that oddball wording in the postseason manual about “side-by-side” rankings, where head-to-head overrides RPI?

Consider a situation where Ballard holds at the 17th spot and Algona drops to 16, and the 15 teams above have all qualified. According to the postseason manual, head-to-head would override the numerical RPI ranking, and Ballard would get in over Algona for the final at-large.

Just throwing that out there.
 
Personally I wish it was that in order for a 4th place team in a district to be eligible (Algona) the 3rd place team in the district already had to be in the playoffs (Ballard).

Lets say that the teams hosting stay the same this is what I would do

BHRV vs Algona/Ballard
Nevada vs. SBL

Humboldt vs. Creston
Independence vs. Grinnell

Harlan vs. Sioux Center
Benton vs. Hampton Dumont CAL

West Delaware vs Assumption
Solon vs ADM

I don't like Benton getting to play H-D/CAL as they would almost certainly be a bottom 4 team, but I also don't like rematches from the regular season in the first round.
 
Yeah now that I think about it, I don't really like the first-round rematches either. Just misses out on some novelty and excitement to the game. I'm more okay with something like a Grinnell vs. Benton rematch since that was all the way back in week 1 and they're different districts, but yeah I'd change mine to try to avoid the intra-distrct matchups in the first round. It's worth the extra driving.
 
chalime said:
"The 6 district champions and 2 district runner up will have the opportunity to host. The 2 district runner ups with the highest RPI will be provided the opportunity to host."

Hmm I didn't know about those rules. But I think there's a pretty decent chance that SBL passes Independence in RPI this week, since SBL is so close to them right now (.6206 vs. .6198) and they play a slightly tougher RPI opponent this week (Carroll vs Center Point Urbana)... We'll see.
Click to expand...
I thought exactly the same thing. Independence is on the cusp of playing on the road in the first round.
 
PNation said:
Personally I wish it was that in order for a 4th place team in a district to be eligible (Algona) the 3rd place team in the district already had to be in the playoffs (Ballard).

Lets say that the teams hosting stay the same this is what I would do

BHRV vs Algona/Ballard
Nevada vs. SBL

Humboldt vs. Creston
Independence vs. Grinnell

Harlan vs. Sioux Center
Benton vs. Hampton Dumont CAL

West Delaware vs Assumption
Solon vs ADM

I don't like Benton getting to play H-D/CAL as they would almost certainly be a bottom 4 team, but I also don't like rematches from the regular season in the first round.
Click to expand...
A Grinnell Benton rematch would be interesting. Grinnell's second-leading tackler LB wasn't playing in week 1
 
chalime said:
"The 6 district champions and 2 district runner up will have the opportunity to host. The 2 district runner ups with the highest RPI will be provided the opportunity to host."

Hmm I didn't know about those rules. But I think there's a pretty decent chance that SBL passes Independence in RPI this week, since SBL is so close to them right now (.6206 vs. .6198) and they play a slightly tougher RPI opponent this week (Carroll vs Center Point Urbana)... We'll see.
Click to expand...
The winning percentage difference between the two shrinks as well, if they both win. Not sure maybe my brain isnt seeing it correctly
 
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