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4A Predictions

EastIowaHawk

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Jan 6, 2008
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The IHSAA has released its brackets for the state tournament. There are so many strong teams in the field that I think they got the seeding mostly right. I'm not sure that Waukee is the best team, with their loss to Linn-Mar which (about the same time) had two MVC double digit losses to Cedar Falls and Wahlert. But, who else should it be? Dubuque Senior inexplicably lost to IC Liberty, so even though they beat the most recent #1 team, Bettendorf, that head-scratcher probably cost them a top seed. I think the IHSAA did about as good a job as could be expected. I think it's a wide open tournament with about five or six teams having a chance to take home the title.
 
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Waukee
Iowa City West

North Scott
Cedar Falls


Iowa City West
Cedar Falls


Cedar Falls ... not betting any money on that...
 
The IHSAA has released its brackets for the state tournament. There are so many strong teams in the field that I think they got the seeding mostly right. ... I think the IHSAA did about as good a job as could be expected.

Participating coaches do the seeding. IHSAA just tallies the votes.
 
I'm going with the winner of the Iowa City West vs. Dubuque Senior game to take the title with about 40% certainty. Senior missed two free throws late to lose AT IC West earlier this year. North Scott would be my next choice, followed by Cedar Falls. All are good defensive teams.
 
I have no idea how SCE is 6 seed. 1 close loss to the #2 seeded 3A team?

3 wins over SC West, 1 win over SBL, and a comeback win vs Johnston. Other than that no really good tests. Not a terribly weak schedule but nothing really stands out and says #1 seed.

As an East fan, I like the match up with Cedar Falls, a rematch of last years #3 vs #6 seeds.

Cedar Falls had AJ Green...while watching him shoot during warm ups last year at the Well I knew East wouldn’t win. He’s gone but so is Van Rees. Maybe a CF fan can chime in, but I do like our chances better without Green being out there.
 
3 wins over SC West, 1 win over SBL, and a comeback win vs Johnston. Other than that no really good tests. Not a terribly weak schedule but nothing really stands out and says #1 seed.

As an East fan, I like the match up with Cedar Falls, a rematch of last years #3 vs #6 seeds.

Cedar Falls had AJ Green...while watching him shoot during warm ups last year at the Well I knew East wouldn’t win. He’s gone but so is Van Rees. Maybe a CF fan can chime in, but I do like our chances better without Green being out there.
Even then, Cedar Falls is #3 with 6 losses. BC Moore and MaxPreps have East #4 and #1. Not sure how accurate Maxpreps is but it seems we get screwed every year on seeding.
 
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Maxpreps is notorious for being wildly inaccurate. Cedar Falls had just three losses this year, and all three coming in OT or double OT. The first of those was the very first game of the year to Waterloo West, coming less than two weeks after most of these guys had just been in the state championship game in football, and were hardly in basketball game shape yet, or team chemistry. The second of those was a double OT loss @ a very good ranked Cedar Rapids Prairie team. And the third which was to a very good Linn Mar team. They did not actually play DeLaSalle this year. That score was from last year.

This team certainly doesn’t have the prolific scorer that they had in AJ Green, but it is definitely longer and deeper, and far more versatile. 6’5” Jack Campbell will be on scholarship for football at Iowa starting next year. 6’7” Jackson Frericks will join him there as a walk-on. While 6’4” Logan Wolf will play both football and basketball for UNI. Cael Loecher is a 6’6” junior, while sophomore Chase Courbat goes 6’9”, 205.
 
Maxpreps is notorious for being wildly inaccurate. Cedar Falls had just three losses this year, and all three coming in OT or double OT. The first of those was the very first game of the year to Waterloo West, coming less than two weeks after most of these guys had just been in the state championship game in football, and were hardly in basketball game shape yet, or team chemistry. The second of those was a double OT loss @ a very good ranked Cedar Rapids Prairie team. And the third which was to a very good Linn Mar team. They did not actually play DeLaSalle this year. That score was from last year.

This team certainly doesn’t have the prolific scorer that they had in AJ Green, but it is definitely longer and deeper, and far more versatile. 6’5” Jack Campbell will be on scholarship for football at Iowa starting next year. 6’7” Jackson Frericks will join him there as a walk-on. While 6’4” Logan Wolf will play both football and basketball for UNI. Cael Loecher is a 6’6” junior, while sophomore Chase Courbat goes 6’9”, 205.
 
I was kind of surprised that North Scott did not receive the number one seed. Their only loss was by two points at Bettendorf. They also held a very good Prairie team to 40 points to advance. I would say it is pretty difficult to compare teams from different areas of the state when they hardly ever play each other. I agree there are a number of teams this year who have the talent to win the title. By the way I am a Dubuque Senior fan and retired Senior coach and they played outstanding in their win over Bettendorf. According to quick stats Senior shot over 70% from the field, that will you a lot of games. D.J. Carton from Bettendorf is the real deal, he was pretty much unstoppable. Luckily he waited until the 4th quarter to take over the game, when he scored 15 of his 27 points.
 
I think the winner of IC West/DBQ Senior ends up in the final. I’ll take North Scott on the bottom part of the bracket.

North Scott vs DBQ Senior in the final.

Senior gets it done. When Noah Carter wants to score, there is nothing you can do to stop him.
 
Maxpreps is notorious for being wildly inaccurate. Cedar Falls had just three losses this year, and all three coming in OT or double OT. The first of those was the very first game of the year to Waterloo West, coming less than two weeks after most of these guys had just been in the state championship game in football, and were hardly in basketball game shape yet, or team chemistry. The second of those was a double OT loss @ a very good ranked Cedar Rapids Prairie team. And the third which was to a very good Linn Mar team. They did not actually play DeLaSalle this year. That score was from last year.

This team certainly doesn’t have the prolific scorer that they had in AJ Green, but it is definitely longer and deeper, and far more versatile. 6’5” Jack Campbell will be on scholarship for football at Iowa starting next year. 6’7” Jackson Frericks will join him there as a walk-on. While 6’4” Logan Wolf will play both football and basketball for UNI. Cael Loecher is a 6’6” junior, while sophomore Chase Courbat goes 6’9”, 205.


Yike..... That gives CF a massive height advantage. How athletic are those two big guys? I think East’s tallest starter is 6’3? He’s very athletic though and can slip to the hoop with the ball pretty quick. We have some bigger bodies guys who come in and guard the hoop but aren’t big scoring threats. We lost Van Rees but a lot of other guys improved. Sounds like a tough match up for East but familiar opponent and experience could make this more competitive than last years game.
 
Frericks and Loecher are VERY athletic. They play/ed TE and QB respectively on the football team as well. Courbat is young, and I haven't gotten to see him play in person. Nevertheless, he's the only soph on the roster, so that should also tell you something, given all of the other size CF possesses, and he has the highest FG % on the team at 67%. He'll likely be a beast by the time he's a senior. Campbell is a very physical presence wherever he is, and leads the team in rebounding.

Check out the link for their stats and roster info.

http://www.quikstatsiowa.com/Public...?IDSport=57C38F60-B323-4087-A557-9ED925DC546D
 
Loecher only plays in blowouts. But CF is the longest team I've seen this season. I think they come out of the bottom and play the winner of the West-Senior game for the title.
 
I've seen North Scott, DBQ Senior, Cedar Falls, and IA City West play. Each 2+ times. Of them, I rank Cedar Falls and North Scott as the best teams I have seen. Still, people I respect that watch as much high school ball as me say that when they are on (like now) DBQ Senior is very good. (I've watched them play and win/lose 4 times, nothing but ugly games. I saw them get beat by a not-at-all good 3A Wahlert team that caused me to wonder why people liked Senior at all....)
So, I will rank 4A
#1 Cedar Falls...best team I have seen all year.
#2 Sioux City East...never seen, going on rep
#3 North Scott...as always, solid. Seriously, every year you watch and say...solid coaching.
#4 Iowa City West......Sorry, love em or hate em. IA City West is IA City West.
#5 DBA Senior. Wild card here as I admit they play better when I am not in the gym.
 
My predictions:
Waukee
Senior
North Scott
SC East

Senior
North Scott

North Scott
 
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