1A
- Thread starter IGo42
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I'm pretty certain it has to be 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3, I don't think the state would change that
In A, 1A and 2A for first round it says when a district champ plays a district 4th place team, the district champ will be home team. When runner-up plays third place finisher the runner-up will be the home team.
Second round, district champ cannot play another district champ, I’d assume this applies to the first round as well, but doesn’t specify. Basically it’ll be 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 trying to avoid district rematches and take travel into consideration, but doesn’t say district opponents cannot play. If everything goes to schedule it’ll be 1 v 2 in the second would again with the district champ being the home team.
Quarterfinals: Team with higher district finish is home team, then fewest number of district losses, then head to head, then alphabetical with the team listed first being the home team.
Essentially they’ll use their own rankings and the district finishes to pair teams up first round, the. Pod system in 2nd round and quarterfinals, hopefully trying to get the 4 best teams possible to the Dome following above criteria. It’s all subjective and opinion no matter how much some will argue certain teams deserve different opponents.
Second round, district champ cannot play another district champ, I’d assume this applies to the first round as well, but doesn’t specify. Basically it’ll be 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 trying to avoid district rematches and take travel into consideration, but doesn’t say district opponents cannot play. If everything goes to schedule it’ll be 1 v 2 in the second would again with the district champ being the home team.
Quarterfinals: Team with higher district finish is home team, then fewest number of district losses, then head to head, then alphabetical with the team listed first being the home team.
Essentially they’ll use their own rankings and the district finishes to pair teams up first round, the. Pod system in 2nd round and quarterfinals, hopefully trying to get the 4 best teams possible to the Dome following above criteria. It’s all subjective and opinion no matter how much some will argue certain teams deserve different opponents.
Assuming WB beats Durant by more than 17,
If Wilton wins, they clinch district champ, WB would be number 2
If Wilton loses by 3 or less, same as above.
If Wilton loses by 4 WB would be district champ, Regina number 2
If Wilton loses by 5 or more, Regina is district champ, WB number 2
1A-3 champion won't be decided until the final week.
Week 8 Games
6-1 MFL @ 1-6 Central Springs
6-1 Sum-Fred vs 3-4 A-P
5-2 Denver vs 4-3 Dike
What the top 4 need to happen Week 8:
MFL needs to beat CS (very likely) and needs Dike to beat Denver (or an SF loss)
SF needs to beat AP (likely) and needs Denver to beat Dike. (Or an MFL loss)
Dike needs to beat Denver (toss-up) and needs MFL to lose.
Denver needs to beat Dike, and needs both MFL and SF to lose (highly unlikely).
*If Denver beats Dike then SF will be champion because SF beat MFL h-t-h.
*If Dike beats Denver and MFL & SF both win, then there will be a 3-way tie for the district championship. MFL has a comfortable lead in tie-breaker points:
MFL (47), Dike (27), and SF (24).
Feel free to check my math, I could have gotten something wrong but I'm pretty sure I got it correct.
Week 8 Games
6-1 MFL @ 1-6 Central Springs
6-1 Sum-Fred vs 3-4 A-P
5-2 Denver vs 4-3 Dike
What the top 4 need to happen Week 8:
MFL needs to beat CS (very likely) and needs Dike to beat Denver (or an SF loss)
SF needs to beat AP (likely) and needs Denver to beat Dike. (Or an MFL loss)
Dike needs to beat Denver (toss-up) and needs MFL to lose.
Denver needs to beat Dike, and needs both MFL and SF to lose (highly unlikely).
*If Denver beats Dike then SF will be champion because SF beat MFL h-t-h.
*If Dike beats Denver and MFL & SF both win, then there will be a 3-way tie for the district championship. MFL has a comfortable lead in tie-breaker points:
MFL (47), Dike (27), and SF (24).
Feel free to check my math, I could have gotten something wrong but I'm pretty sure I got it correct.
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My predictions as of today
| 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | ||
| OABCIG | SHENANDOAH | HOLSTEIN | LAKE VIEW | ||
| EMMET | DIKE | PKEY | HINTON | ||
| MFL | SIOUX CENTRAL | SF | SH | ||
| GC | OGDEN | WC | REGINA | ||
| WILTON | CASCADE | WB | EDDYVILLE | ||
| SK | PVILLE | PC | DENVER | ||
| SH | HUDSON | WG | AVOCA | ||
| UNDERWOOD | LB | TREYNOR | WCV |
I don’t think they’d put a district rematch of Cascade at Wilton. And Sioux Center to MFL would be a haul for a first round game.
P-ville will be a 3 and Eddyville a 4 since P-ville won35-0. Plus, they will not have teams from the same district playing in the first round.
My first round predictions based on the standings today. Of course this is subject to change based on what happens the last week of the regular season.
1. OABCIG vs. 4. Shenandoah
1. Emmetsburg vs. 4. Ridge View
1. MFL vs. 4. Hudson
1. Grundy Center vs. 4. Cascade
1. Wilton vs. 4. E-B-F
1. Sigourney-Keota vs. 4. Denver
1. South Hamilton vs. 4. Sioux Central
1. Underwood vs. 4. West Central Valley
2. Hinton vs. 3. Poky
2. Manson-NW vs. 3. West Sioux
2. DNH vs. 3. South Hardin
2. West Branch vs. 3. Sumner-Fredericksburg
2. Waterloo Columbus vs. 3. Pleasantville
2. Pella Christian vs. 3. IC Regina
2. Woodward-Granger vs. 3. AHSTW
2. Treynor vs. 3. GVC
1. OABCIG vs. 4. Shenandoah
1. Emmetsburg vs. 4. Ridge View
1. MFL vs. 4. Hudson
1. Grundy Center vs. 4. Cascade
1. Wilton vs. 4. E-B-F
1. Sigourney-Keota vs. 4. Denver
1. South Hamilton vs. 4. Sioux Central
1. Underwood vs. 4. West Central Valley
2. Hinton vs. 3. Poky
2. Manson-NW vs. 3. West Sioux
2. DNH vs. 3. South Hardin
2. West Branch vs. 3. Sumner-Fredericksburg
2. Waterloo Columbus vs. 3. Pleasantville
2. Pella Christian vs. 3. IC Regina
2. Woodward-Granger vs. 3. AHSTW
2. Treynor vs. 3. GVC
This is actually pretty reasonable if the seeding pans out this way. I see 2 possible 4-1 upsets. Denver beating SK and Ridge View over Emmetsburg.
a number of 2-3 can go either way. WS over Manson NW Webster. South Hardin over DNH? SF over WB, PC and Regina and AHSTW.
There is still a lot to figure out in district 3 and maybe 5.
I am pretty sure West Sioux would beat Manson-NWW and AHSTW would beat W-G. South Hardin is not a bad team either, but I don't know if they can beat DNH or not. The other ones would be a tossup as well and yes I could see some 4 upset a district champ along the way.
This is what I see for first round match-ups, kind of there are still plenty of seeds yet to be decided and I always try to get some "better" teams matched up against what I see as lower teams.
OABCIG vs Manson NW Webster
Emmetsburg vs Ridge View
MFL vs Cascade
Grundy vs EBF
Wilton vs Hudson
SK vs Denver
South Hamilton vs Shenandoah
Underwood vs WCV
West Sioux vs Sioux Central
Pocahontas vs Sumner Fred
DNH vs South Hardin
Columbus vs Ogden
West Branch vs Pleasantville
Pella Christian vs Regina
Woodward Granger vs AHSTW
Treynor vs Hinton
Then after predicting the winners of those first round matchups and using the states rankings and a little geography here is what I have for 2nd round pods
Pod 1
Grundy Center vs West Branch
Emmetsburg vs Treynor
Pod 2
Underwood vs West Sioux
OABCIG vs AHSTW
Pod 3
MFL vs Columbus
South Hamilton vs DNH
Pod 4
Wilton vs Sumner Fred
SK vs Regina
I know Pod 1 is crazy, but I do think they will try to separate their 4 highest ranked district champs.
OABCIG vs Manson NW Webster
Emmetsburg vs Ridge View
MFL vs Cascade
Grundy vs EBF
Wilton vs Hudson
SK vs Denver
South Hamilton vs Shenandoah
Underwood vs WCV
West Sioux vs Sioux Central
Pocahontas vs Sumner Fred
DNH vs South Hardin
Columbus vs Ogden
West Branch vs Pleasantville
Pella Christian vs Regina
Woodward Granger vs AHSTW
Treynor vs Hinton
Then after predicting the winners of those first round matchups and using the states rankings and a little geography here is what I have for 2nd round pods
Pod 1
Grundy Center vs West Branch
Emmetsburg vs Treynor
Pod 2
Underwood vs West Sioux
OABCIG vs AHSTW
Pod 3
MFL vs Columbus
South Hamilton vs DNH
Pod 4
Wilton vs Sumner Fred
SK vs Regina
I know Pod 1 is crazy, but I do think they will try to separate their 4 highest ranked district champs.
So, you're saying that WB is the #4 seed in that pod? They are the only team in 1A who has beaten two teams currently ranked in IAHSAA Top 10 (Regina and Columbus). Wilton may jump into top 4 if they beat Regina this week. That would solve some of the geographical anomalies. Also, Treynor would have to drive 210 miles to play Grundy in quarterfinals. That ain't it.
I get that NW/W/SW Iowa are all geographical nightmares when it comes to scheduling. Underwood is the only viable team west of I-35. That poses a big Pod-ding problem.
Of course the pods all depends on who wins but I agree, pod 1 may need changed. It depends who wins district 3 but I think you have the other #1 seeds correct. I think Regina will go to Columbus and Ogden to PC. I just do not think the state will make Regina go to the same school 2 straight years.
There are legit four seeds that may upset one seeds first round. I won’t even try to pod things out. My track r3cord speaks for itself hahaha. Discussion is good tho. I don’t know of any other forum where I get the info I get here. I even enjoy the banter about transfers on the east side of the state!
I really think they will pair up D1 and D8 since Underwood is a #1 seed. Maybe a little D2 or D7 but for the most part it will be those 2 districts since they are way out there.
Why did you have to open that can of worms? Let the bickering begin.
it's been pretty one-sided of late. Then again, I cannot read "that guy's" posts. So I guess I cannot be sure.
Looking forward to seeing what unfolds in the next 5 days. IAHSAA has an absolute quagmire on their hands as it pertains to geography. Western/NW Iowa are not going to be easy to pod with the current rankings
Here are my Pod predictions based on the rankings as of today and of course if these teams win in the first round. Of course after this week the rankings could and probably will change but here goes. The ranking is next to the team.
Pod A
2. Underwood vs. West Sioux
9. Treynor vs. OABCIG
Pod B
1. Grundy Center vs. AHSTW
10. South Hamilton vs. Hinton
Pod C
3. Sumner-Fredericksburg vs. Emmetsburg
8. Waterloo Columbus vs. D-NH
Pod D
4. MFL vs. 7. Sigourney-Keota
5. Wilton vs. 6. IC Regina
Pod A
2. Underwood vs. West Sioux
9. Treynor vs. OABCIG
Pod B
1. Grundy Center vs. AHSTW
10. South Hamilton vs. Hinton
Pod C
3. Sumner-Fredericksburg vs. Emmetsburg
8. Waterloo Columbus vs. D-NH
Pod D
4. MFL vs. 7. Sigourney-Keota
5. Wilton vs. 6. IC Regina
I have to revise my last two Pods because District Champs won't play District Champs in the second rounds according to the Postseason Manual.
Pod A
2. Underwood vs. West Sioux
9. Treynor vs. OABCIG
Pod B
1. Grundy Center vs. AHSTW
10. South Hamilton vs. Hinton
Pod C
3. Sumner-Fredericksburg vs. Emmetsburg
7. Sigourney-Keota vs. D-NH
Pod D
4. MFL vs. 8. Waterloo Columbus
5. Wilton vs. 6. Iowa City Regina
Pod A
2. Underwood vs. West Sioux
9. Treynor vs. OABCIG
Pod B
1. Grundy Center vs. AHSTW
10. South Hamilton vs. Hinton
Pod C
3. Sumner-Fredericksburg vs. Emmetsburg
7. Sigourney-Keota vs. D-NH
Pod D
4. MFL vs. 8. Waterloo Columbus
5. Wilton vs. 6. Iowa City Regina
I have some different ideas on round 1, but don't think they matter much. I do think your Pods probably spread out the strength so we end up with the best teams in the dome (which probably means the state won't do it.)
I know location plays a roll, but if the state is trying to spread things evenly out do you think they would have 4 ranked teams in pod D while the others only have 2? I understand that ideally 4 and 5 would be in the same pod (and should be). To be fair Pod's C and D should each have 3.
Maybe that's the next factor Brent Moore needs to include in his magic 8-ball. See if his computer can accurately project the impact of weather on a game...
Thank you for clarifying that because I was wondering what I said that would solicit that kind of response.
I know nobody likes my obsession with rankings more than I do, but I'll share a little.
I did the composite ranking thing with all 7 human based and the 2 computer based rankings. The interesting component is that both computer based systems contained some radial departures from the human based. But when you aggregate all of them, the result (both with and without computer input) is extremely similar to the IHSAA ranking. So, kudos to the Boys in Boone and the ranking committees they picked. Hopefully they will use this information well, especially in second round seeding.
The other thing that pops out is that there is a pretty clear division of tiers - i.e. great confidence in the top 6 across the board, more questions in the next 4-6 teams. That said, there's a pretty good chance we get some real clarity on that top four after this final week of regular season that will drive pod separation ( at least as much as there can be given geographic considerations and the lack of common opponents.
Two of the most interesting outcomes for me will be:
How Close do the final regular season rankings come to predicting final 4
How will the computer systems change to include the outcomes - the difference between the assumptions in their models vs. outcomes and how they might modify their systems going forward (though I doubt either will)
Bottom line - teams still have to play the games and win, but it would be fun to believe you could come up with a way to better predict it.
Is it Friday yet?
I did the composite ranking thing with all 7 human based and the 2 computer based rankings. The interesting component is that both computer based systems contained some radial departures from the human based. But when you aggregate all of them, the result (both with and without computer input) is extremely similar to the IHSAA ranking. So, kudos to the Boys in Boone and the ranking committees they picked. Hopefully they will use this information well, especially in second round seeding.
The other thing that pops out is that there is a pretty clear division of tiers - i.e. great confidence in the top 6 across the board, more questions in the next 4-6 teams. That said, there's a pretty good chance we get some real clarity on that top four after this final week of regular season that will drive pod separation ( at least as much as there can be given geographic considerations and the lack of common opponents.
Two of the most interesting outcomes for me will be:
How Close do the final regular season rankings come to predicting final 4
How will the computer systems change to include the outcomes - the difference between the assumptions in their models vs. outcomes and how they might modify their systems going forward (though I doubt either will)
Bottom line - teams still have to play the games and win, but it would be fun to believe you could come up with a way to better predict it.
Is it Friday yet?
Yeah it was supposed to be in response to @MepoDawg# comment about the weather's effect on Wilton/Regina game.
3/25 with 2 interceptions
SK returned a punt for a TD, an INT for a TD, KO for TD, punt for a TD only completed 2 passes, both were TDs.
I would be critical of piling on the points, but when you look at SK only ran 16 plays from scrimmage, so I'm not sure how much of a arsenal they even had on the field to pull off.
And to think - Colfax Mingo has actually won a game... against a 2A opponent...think about that one....
with all of our talk about 1st and second tier teams, there are really some programs out there in a world of hurt
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