I looked up how to create power rankings on YouTube and this is the fruits of my labor. I would splain the entire process but there is no way yous would understand it. Being honest, I didn’t understand it much myself. Anyway, the numbers you see are the average points scored and given up adjusted using their strength of schedule. They are multiplied by some numbers from a linear regression (I told you, you wouldn’t get it) and subtracted to get a projected score. Odds can be calculated with another process but I didn’t bother doing it with this week’s ratings. Let's see how the ratings think the first round of the 8-Player playoffs will play out.
At-Large at 1st Place
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| Tripoli (3-5) | 22.1360747 | 34.6325369 | 5.32637688 | -82.249882 |
| Bishop Garrigan (8-0) | 53.8949989 | -18.698875 | 87.5762584 | |
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| Exira-EHK (3-5) | 14.0459589 | 32.9574207 | -9.0170414 | -87.528736 |
| Lenox (8-0) | 46.5857893 | -25.184064 | 78.5116943 | |
Bishop Garrigan and Lenox deserve the top two seeds but the choosing of their victims is beyond stupid. Tripoli and Exira-EHK have no business being in a 32 team playoff. The 17 point margin scale from district play is not indicative of anything with how unbalanced districts are. Hell, Turkey Valley tied Tripoli with a 0 but Tripoli got in because R comes before U in the alphabet. Every team in District 9 that didn’t make the playoffs, including 1-win Coon Rapids-Bayard, is better than those three teams. Does that matter? Not really as they’d get hammered too. It would still be a heck of an accomplishment if Lenox can make Exira-EHK score negative points.
3rd Place at 1st Place
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| East Mills (5-3) | 19.3921579 | 28.8951631 | 10.5887582 | -63.97145 |
| Audubon (8-0) | 46.4197143 | -10.017754 | 74.560208 | |
Beatdown.
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| Springville (6-3) | 30.9076144 | 12.5440522 | 18.1520585 | -41.401841 |
| Don Bosco (8-0) | 46.6266712 | -14.596122 | 59.5538997 | |
I doubt Springville will score 3 TDs on the Dons.
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| BGM (4-4) | 21.0343164 | 11.8741402 | 1.58505615 | -64.961329 |
| Edgewood-Colesburg (8-0) | 54.0435505 | -21.503042 | 66.5463856 | |
BGM was rightly demolished by my ratings by ignoring the video game numbers they racked up playing bad teams, but they aren’t this bad. Also, Edgewood-Colesburg isn’t nearly this good. I’m expecting an 80ish to 40ish score.
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| Ar-We-Va (5-3) | 30.1063155 | 12.3558821 | 37.0753538 | -9.6879886 |
| Fremont-Mills (7-1) | 34.3410966 | 6.61910706 | 46.7633424 | |
My Knights had a turnaround year despite graduating pretty much all their production from last year. The junior class really improved from last year, especially our QB and starting RB, plus the four freshmen starters have been solid. The team’s biggest flaw is their defense looks like the Bad News Bears on 3rd and long. That can cost you a game against a solid team like Ar-We-Va. Hopefully we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot as much as we have been.
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| Kee (5-3) | 29.9987656 | 6.52160458 | 24.4467774 | -34.369714 |
| Gladbrook-Reinbeck (7-1) | 51.3673869 | -6.8303889 | 58.8164916 | |
Kee got whomped by Edgewood-Colesburg to end the regular season and I expect them to get whomped again. Kee is more likely to score 12 than 24.
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| Southeast Warren (6-2) | 29.4290058 | 17.5528832 | 22.1695464 | -49.828782 |
| Iowa Valley (7-1) | 54.2056428 | -8.6484618 | 71.9983286 | |
Let’s see how Iowa Valley responds after losing fairly convincingly to Belle Plaine to end the regular season. Their defense is not nearly as good as my ratings think so I expect Southeast Warren to score over 30 unless injuries are a factor.
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| Winfield-Mt Union (5-3) | 29.7129479 | 13.7066448 | 25.8911839 | -32.197964 |
| Montezuma (8-1) | 44.1464244 | -4.9631903 | 58.089148 | |
This is a rematch of a game Montezuma won easily so I expect them to handle business again.
3rd Place at 2nd Place
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| Clarksville (6-3) | 32.8703169 | 6.64588271 | 14.3892822 | -30.666145 |
| Riceville (7-1) | 37.8534717 | -20.804195 | 45.055427 | |
My ratings love Riceville but that is due to one set of my ratings ignoring its beatdown from Don Bosco. Riceville should be on the road playing another 2nd place team. Bedford, Belle Plaine, GTRA, and Janesville are far more worthy of this honor. I actually think Clarksville can win this battle of the villes. It’s a little off topic, but does anyone have information on Owen Backer? He scored over 20 TDs as a sophomore for Clarksville last year but was not on their roster this year.
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| Collins-Maxwell (5-3) | 31.3230383 | 21.5558919 | 7.05901278 | -75.21835 |
| Woodbine (7-1) | 60.5875294 | -26.972812 | 82.2773626 | |
There is nothing to say about this game.
2nd Place at 2nd Place
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| Bedford (7-1) | 46.3083967 | -20.337783 | 45.0960388 | 23.7295675 |
| Belle Plaine (7-1) | 39.242317 | -2.6383469 | 21.3664713 | |
Probably the best matchup in the first round. Bedford has been the most dominant team this year, but got beat bad by Lenox which was the only top ten team they played. Belle Plaine is a solid team and I expect them to be competitive especially since Bedford is a little dinged up. This score prediction seems reasonable to me.
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| WACO (7-1) | 41.8417711 | -1.3725293 | 46.7793017 | 2.02860268 |
| Central City (6-3) | 44.8247287 | 4.09793897 | 44.750699 | |
Another rematch but this one was pretty competitive with WACO winning 51-36. WACO is probably my most disappointing team this year. They have been one of the best defensive teams in the state the last few years but they have gotten lit up this year. My ratings say they have the 16th best defense which is incredibly generous. They gave up 46 to Coon Rapids-Bayard which was their highest output of the year by 18 points. Central City has gotten lit up as well but I’ll pick them to get revenge in another shootout.
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| CAM (6-2) | 33.717204 | 5.80692601 | 23.5277973 | -35.60131 |
| GTRA (7-1) | 52.3196246 | -11.920094 | 59.1291068 | |
This is a real alphabet battle. I don’t see GTRA putting a running clock on CAM. Injuries derailed what could have been a Dome team but they still have fight. I’m expecting a close game with GTRA pulling away late.
| Teams | Offense | Defense | Score | Margin |
| St. Edmond (5-3) | 40.5269368 | 4.51181279 | 29.0832571 | -28.294256 |
| Janesville (7-1) | 51.7877397 | -13.464116 | 57.3775133 | |
No team is more battle tested than St. Ed. The combined record of the three teams they have lost to is 23-1. Janesville has only had one competitive game this year, Gladbrook-Reinbeck, and their only score in the second half of that game was a scoop and score of a punt snap that went 10 feet over the punter’s head. Will they handle playing 4 quarters better this time? Janesville should win but I expect a two score margin.
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This is for the three people from Sidney that can read. Your football program from peewee to high school is a joke. I thought your new head man could clean up the mess but what I saw last Friday in Tabor says no. They needed an injection of toughness but the easy 62 points we put up says they message ain't getting through. They seemed to have confused being tough with being dirty as hell. Multiple players were doing it with one in particular playing like Vontaze Burfic with 1% of the talent. He acted a fool the entire game. Late hits, grabbing facemasks on purpose, running his yap, and standing over people. He even gave a kid a bloody nose by throwing him the ground by his facemask
on this play. He may have finally gotten thrown out (I thought I saw him come back in after what had to have been his 5th 15-yard penalty) which would mean he can’t play in your week 9 game but there is no way he should be on your sidelines even if he is eligible if you are trying to build a respectable program. That is assuming your plan to win games isn’t by intentionally injuring your opponents.
Oh, I can’t wait for the next three whoopings my boys put on you cowpokers. You may think you have us in 2028 because you have an 8th grader that would have started varsity for you this year, but let me tell you why you are wrong. Your SR and JR classes both dominated FM when they were in 8th grade. Look what happened once the boys turned into men. Let's crank up the time machine and take you back to 2006. Nate Meier’s 7th grade team went 3-2 with both losses coming to Hamburg thanks to an 8th grader named Kaleb Kahue. Kahue ran wild in both games and even trucked Meier so hard, he knocked him out of the game. What happened when the two met up again in 2010?
We won 63-0 and outgained them 368 yards to -17 yards. Kahue had 4 yards rushing on 8 carries while Meier ran for 101 yards and 2 TDs on 9 carries. That was the beginning of our 14 straight trips to the playoffs. You have beaten us twice during this streak. The first was an epic choke job in 2012 and the second was in 2017 when you nearly had the enrollment of a 1A team (we got sweet revenge in the playoffs though). You’ll never have the football program the communities of FM has built with the clowns currently running your rodeo. You had an FCS level player just a few years ago, Tommy Wilson, and did not develop the talent of a single kid around him. That has never been an issue at FM. This kid you think will get you out of the basement will suffer the same fate though hopefully he doesn’t get his leg snapped in a meaningless game between two terrible teams like Tommy Wilson did. The only way he ends up on the winning side of a football game between FM and Sidney is if he becomes a Knight. That will happen if y'all don't clean your junk up.
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End of rant. I couldn't format my tables so hopefully they look all right.
