Here are my thoughts for class 4A this season, as alway more to get discussion going more than anything. Last year 4A was a class where any of the top 10 or so teams could beat each other on any Friday night, which lead to great games every week. I think there may be a clearer favorite this year, but still a bunch of really good teams right behind them.
District 1
Favorite: Fort Dodge
Top Challenger: Spencer
This district last year was the weakest overall and I expect the same this year as well. I am taking Fort Dodge as the favorite they were relatively young last year, and they have the best player in the district and maybe the state in 4A. After that I think you could go a few different ways. I think Spencer has more experience returning then LeMars but the Bulldogs would probably be the other team I considered for the two spot. Overall I see this district as messy.
District 2
Favorite: Western Dubuque
Top Challenger: Waverly Shell Rock
I almost took WSR as the favorite, but I think with what Western Dubuque has done the last decade they deserve to be the favorite as they were clearly the best team in the district and I suspect that they will just reload. WSR has very young last year and play probably the toughest schedule in the state to start the season. Now they need to do better against a still very tough schedule but I think they will. I think that Decorah will be the same old tough Decorah team, but they don’t quite have the horses they did in the past. I don’t know what to think of Marion, I think as a program they are improving but it may be a bit of a rebuild this year.
District 3
Favorite: Xavier
Top Challenger: North Scott
In my eyes I see North Scott and Xavier as co-favorites, I took Xavier as they won the game last year and both teams seem to be returning about the same amount of experience, although I have little doubt that both teams will just reload. Both of these teams were in a group of about 8 teams that seemed like state contenders but both just fell short of that goal and I would guess will be motivated to get back to the dome. I am also interested to see what CCA looks like under Lance Pedersen, I would take them as a playoff team as well.
District 4
Favorite: Gilbert
Top Challenger: Pella
This is a tough district to predict because overall there is so much parity. I am going with Gilbert as the favorite, last year they started 6-0 and might have been ranked 1st in the state only to lose their last 3 games and miss the playoffs. They return a ton of production from that team and I think get past the late season slide. I took Pella 2nd as they really came back last year after 2 or 3 years of seasons that probably didn’t meet their standards, they lose some but return enough to be penciled in second. I think B-F and Carlisle are definite challengers as well, but B-F lost a bunch and Carlisle struggled last year but played with some youth in this very tough district. Newton probably takes a step back but I don’t think drop off too far.
District 5
Favorite: Ballard
Top Challenger: Indianola
Four really good teams in this district, and I could see any of them winning this district and it also wouldn’t surprise me to see co-champions of this district. I took Ballard the key for them I think is consistency there were games where it appears like they just didn’t show up, if they are more consistent, they are my favorites. Indianola is kind of in the same boat, inconsistent but I also really like what they bring back especially defensively. North Polk had two 1 point losses in the regular season and then made it to the dome, but have some holes to fill. ADM loses some great athletes but I also think bringing in an experience coach after the situation last year might be the most important thing that they did.
District 6
Favorite: Lewis Central
Top Challenger: Norwalk
Lewis Central is probably the easiest favorite to pick in 4A I love what they bring back from their title team, do they have a few players to replace yes, but just like a few of the other top 4A teams I am confident that they will do so. I took Norwalk two but I think that Glenwood and maybe even Winterset could get that #2 spot. I think that they have the best experience returning of those three teams.
Top 10
1. Lewis Central
2. Xavier
3. North Scott
4. Gilbert
5. Western Dubuque
6. Pella
7. Ballard
8. Indianola
9. North Polk
10. Waverly Shell Rock
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