Your summer Class 1A champion prediction is.......

[Iabeastmode]

I would need to see something that shows that the WB non district schedule is anything but weak, some 'facts' would help.

I'll do my best to give you all the "facts". Looking at BCMoore Schedule rankings for 2014 I compared West Branches district with the districts that each semi-final team came from. Here is my findings in detail with school and schedule ranking, at the bottom I have averaged the schedule rankings from all teams to give each district their average ranking.
District 5 District 6 District 4
West Branch #43 Regina #14 South Winn #7
North Cedar #28 Pella Christian #33 Dike/New Hart #6
Bellevue #48 Eddyville/Blake/Free #40 Hudson #26
Alburnett #24 Sigoruney/Keota #25 Sumner/Fred #27
Wilton #22 Highland Riverside #54 Jessup #30
Durant #37 Columbus Comm #56 Clayton Ridge #15
Wapello #50 West Marshall #23 MFL/Marmac #41
District Average: #36 District Average #35 District Average #21

District 7 District 2 West Branch Non District Opp
FD St Ed #11 West Lyon #2 Class A Lisbon 7-4 Sch Rank #30
South Cent Cal #3 Hinton #20 2A West Liberty 0-9 Sch Rank #40
Ogden #9 Western Christian #5 2A West Burlington 4-6 Sch Rank #42
Madrid #8 Harley/Mel/San #13
Manson NWW #4 Sibley/Ochey #16
South Hamilton #19 Ridge View #12
Woodward Aca #10 Unity Christian #1
District Average: #9.14 District Average #9.85

So to conclude District 5 is the weakest district of the 5 that I broke down. Even lower then District 6 which you all love to bang on. The non district schedule where I did not try to prove is the weakest I am still going to argue is pretty poor. I'm sure you will have some other excuse and call me bro or brother or even brosky.

 

[rkhemp]

I would need to see something that shows that the WB non district schedule is anything but weak, some 'facts' would help.

Here are a couple facts. Lisbon has won 38 games including a state championship in the last 4 years. West Burlington made the 2A playoffs last year and I almost guarantee you they make it again as they have a couple of the best athletes in the state on their team regardless of class.

So I think a 1A school that has a perennial A power and a 2A playoff team as part of their non district schedule gives that team a good look. Sorry if not every 1A school can schedule and beat dominate 3A schools. Someone please tell Butch they will not win another title until they schedule Dowling and Valley.

 

[Iabeastmode]

A few more "facts". I took all of the quarter final teams and looked at their non district schedule. Compiled the win losses and ended up with a winning percentage. I added West Branch in this mix so I ended up with 9 teams. Teams are ranked in order of non-district opponents winning percentage.
IC Regina - Solon, Cascade, Xavier (.771 Winning Percentage)
Dike - New Hart - Aplington-Park, Gladbrooke-Reinbeck, Denver (.702)
IKM -Manning - East Sac, Audubon, Treynor (.533)
West Lyon - Central Lyon, Sheldon, Emmetsburg (.517)
Southern Calhoun - Green Co., East Sac, Carol Kuemper (.516)
South Winn - Waukon, Wapsie Valley, New Hampton (.483)
St. Eds - Algona, MC Newman, SE Valley (.448)
West Branch - Lisbon, West Liberty, West Burlington (.367)
Central Decatur - Nodaway Valley, PC Monroe, Clarke (.285)

So compared to "all" quarterfinal teams they do not have the worst non district schedule. But, when you combine the non district schedule 8th out of 9 and the a district schedule ranking of 5th out of the top 5 districts I think I can safely say their schedule is not very good. I hope this is factual enough for everyone. Not sure why everyone is getting so agitated. I am telling you that West Branch will easily be 9-0 this season (should be good news). I also believe they will win their 1st playoff game easily. Are you all happy now?!

 

[WBBearsFollower]

A few more "facts". I took all of the quarter final teams and looked at their non district schedule. Compiled the win losses and ended up with a winning percentage. I added West Branch in this mix so I ended up with 9 teams. Teams are ranked in order of non-district opponents winning percentage.
IC Regina - Solon, Cascade, Xavier (.771 Winning Percentage)
Dike - New Hart - Aplington-Park, Gladbrooke-Reinbeck, Denver (.702)
IKM -Manning - East Sac, Audubon, Treynor (.533)
West Lyon - Central Lyon, Sheldon, Emmetsburg (.517)
Southern Calhoun - Green Co., East Sac, Carol Kuemper (.516)
South Winn - Waukon, Wapsie Valley, New Hampton (.483)
St. Eds - Algona, MC Newman, SE Valley (.448)
West Branch - Lisbon, West Liberty, West Burlington (.367)
Central Decatur - Nodaway Valley, PC Monroe, Clarke (.285)
!

As if you were going to leave them out since you like bringing them into every argument.

You are the best poster here IaBeastMode. I am sorry for attempting to break your stride, Matthew Wilder.
I bow to your greatness. cj

 

[WBBearsFollower]

I'll do my best to give you all the "facts". Looking at BCMoore Schedule rankings for 2014 I compared West Branches district with the districts that each semi-final team came from. Here is my findings in detail with school and schedule ranking, at the bottom I have averaged the schedule rankings from all teams to give each district their average ranking.
District 5 District 6 District 4
West Branch #43 Regina #14 South Winn #7
North Cedar #28 Pella Christian #33 Dike/New Hart #6
Bellevue #48 Eddyville/Blake/Free #40 Hudson #26
Alburnett #24 Sigoruney/Keota #25 Sumner/Fred #27
Wilton #22 Highland Riverside #54 Jessup #30
Durant #37 Columbus Comm #56 Clayton Ridge #15
Wapello #50 West Marshall #23 MFL/Marmac #41
District Average: #36 District Average #35 District Average #21

District 7 District 2 West Branch Non District Opp
FD St Ed #11 West Lyon #2 Class A Lisbon 7-4 Sch Rank #30
South Cent Cal #3 Hinton #20 2A West Liberty 0-9 Sch Rank #40
Ogden #9 Western Christian #5 2A West Burlington 4-6 Sch Rank #42
Madrid #8 Harley/Mel/San #13
Manson NWW #4 Sibley/Ochey #16
South Hamilton #19 Ridge View #12
Woodward Aca #10 Unity Christian #1
District Average: #9.14 District Average #9.85

So to conclude District 5 is the weakest district of the 5 that I broke down. Even lower then District 6 which you all love to bang on. The non district schedule where I did not try to prove is the weakest I am still going to argue is pretty poor. I'm sure you will have some other excuse and call me bro or brother or even brosky.

Wow. I guess 2014 stats are what is going to make or break a team in 2015

Last time I checked the 2 seasons are different from one another.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Here are a couple facts. Lisbon has won 38 games including a state championship in the last 4 years. West Burlington made the 2A playoffs last year and I almost guarantee you they make it again as they have a couple of the best athletes in the state on their team regardless of class.

So I think a 1A school that has a perennial A power and a 2A playoff team as part of their non district schedule gives that team a good look. Sorry if not every 1A school can schedule and beat dominate 3A schools. Someone please tell Butch they will not win another title until they schedule Dowling and Valley.

It is always interesting what one can do with facts and how they can make things appear. So let's jump into RH's facts that he presents, West Liberty 0-9, -13.00 point differential so not exactly a big challenge to the Bears, but the QB must have been impressed with the Bears and moved in mid basketball season to WB, Lisbon is a traditional Class A power but as WBFollower tells us not every season is the same and the Lions 7 wins last year came against teams with a 22-44 record and included one team with a winning record, then they listed a 2A playoff team, this may be a nice example of playoff dilution, West Burlington did make the playoffs with their 4-5 losing regular season record, their 4 wins? Came against teams with a 9-27 record, the lead team in that group with a 6-3 record was Central Lee, they tied in the district, Central Lee piled up their impressive record against teams with a 14-41 record. So I am not sure what IaBeast has against WB but he may be fairly close to accurate on the lack of a challenging non district slate for the Bears, I don't think that was their issue last year sometimes the ball just doesn't bounce your way in games.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

OK here is the deal: even if the games are not challenging the Bears still have to take care of business. If they win the games by 35-40+ then they have done exactly what they are supposed to do.

Regina's district is a picnic. Outside of Pella Christian who will be a pretty good team their district is gonna be a 50 point victory parade. I like Sigourney Keota to be in the fight for 2nd place, but they are just not diverse enough to get there in the end. The Regals are just too good, regardless of graduation.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Thought we were talking about the Bears and their schedule. Let those who criticize Pine and myself note that we did not bring Regina into this discussion.

 

[cyard31]

OK here is the deal: even if the games are not challenging the Bears still have to take care of business. If they win the games by 35-40+ then they have done exactly what they are supposed to do.

Regina's district is a picnic. Outside of Pella Christian who will be a pretty good team their district is gonna be a 50 point victory parade. I like Sigourney Keota to be in the fight for 2nd place, but they are just not diverse enough to get there in the end. The Regals are just too good, regardless of graduation.

it's a shame that these two teams don't play during the season, it would be a major draw for fans all over eastern IA.

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Thought we were talking about the Bears and their schedule. Let those who criticize Pine and myself note that we did not bring Regina into this discussion.

Let the record show I was 100% positive with my Regina quotes as well. hahaha

 

[cidhawkeye]

Let the record show I was 100% positive with my Regina quotes as well. hahaha

I would expect nothing different, you aren't Blame

 

[Vroom_C14]

beastmode, I am not a West Branch fan but I am not sure why you feel their district is so bad and their non district schedule is so bad. They play a very tough A school and 2 2A schools, with West Burlington looking to be on the rise. Both Dike and South Winn had great teams last year and I am sure they will again this year but it is not like West Branch's district appears to be weaker than Regina's. Outside of Regina, no team in that district made it past the first round.

Just don't understand why you feel their schedule was really that much of a diff maker. I am sure Dike would have won on that night no matter what West Branch's schedule was, and I am positive Regina would have breezed to another title no matter what their schedule was

Wasn't South Winn pretty much a one man show last year?

 

[WBBearsFollower]

I would expect nothing different, you aren't Blame

His bark is worse than his bite. He's an internet tough guy type I think. All I know is that we are talking about kids here so arguing too much is pretty dumb. Enjoy this venue and cheer for our teams.

 

[rkhemp]

Wasn't South Winn pretty much a one man show last year?

Far from a one man show. They also had Hagerman graduate as well besides Rommes but they always are well coached. They return a kid who is committed to Iowa State in Carson Lensing. They also Jacobsen, Schweinfus, Kuboushek returning. I am sure they have other underclassmen who will be ready to step up. Not many "one man shows" make it to the dome, and South Winn is far from it

 

[DarkThunder#61]

I'll give my top two teams for each district.

D1-
AHSTW
IKM-Manning

D2-
Hinton
Western Christian

D3-
Emmetsburg
Saint Ansgar

D4-
Dike-New Hartford
South Winneshiek

D5-
West Branch
Bellevue

D6-
Iowa City, Regina
Pella Christian

D7-
South Central Calhoun
Ogden

D8-
Van Meter
Panorama


There's a couple districts where you could throw a few other teams in the mix as well. Madrid is another team to keep an eye on in D7. That was one of the harder ones to call. D3 could be up for grabs really. Every team is gonna be dealing with a fair amount of turnover at key positions. I went with E'burg based on the program and Saint Ansgar based on their momentum from last year even though they do lose a lot of seniors. Lake Mills and Pocahontas should be more competitive in that district, as well.

West Lyon is another team like Madrid where you could interchange them, but it's gonna be interesting to see what they do having lost as many key players as they did to graduation. They only return 6 kids that registered any stats from the State title game and 4 were on defense. They'll still have a lot of big kids to put on the line though so that will certainly make the transition easier. Hinton and Western Christian just look like they're in the best position to move up.

D1 could also be interesting to watch. AHSTW returns a ton of players this year and could be a top 10 team by the time the playoffs arrive. I think it'll come down to whether or not they can overcome IKM-Manning's ability to reload, and whether the Wolves can actually do that given the players they lost as well.

 

[bcmoore87]

Just adding a small data point:

Using last year's data only, a person can predict 70% of games correctly. After about week 5 of the season, linear regression predictions become about 80% correct.

http://bcmoorerankings.com/2010/07/tradition-one-year-tradition/

 

[WBBearsFollower]

Dark Thunder:

I agree with pretty much all of your choices.
I think Madrid gets in D7 due to having both Ogden and SCC at home this year. SCC is the other team I like.

In D5, I like Alburnett to be the 2nd team. Without checking QS, I believe Bellevue lost too much to be up in the mix. Ploessl was a good QB, and they graduated (I think) his top 2 targets in Hinke and Banowitz. Whereas the Pirates return a good dual threat QB and their new coach is pass happy (Feller)

 

[PNation]

If I were to go district by district top 2 I would say that

D1
1. AHSTW
2. IKM-M

D2
1. West Lyon
2. Hinton

D3
1. Saint Ansgar
2. Emmetsburg

D4
1. DNH
2. South Winn

D5
1. West Branch
2. Alburnett

D6
1. Regina
2. SK

D7
1. St Eds
2. Madrid

D8
1. Panorama
2. Van Meter

 

[Makeweight35]

I will be absolutely shocked if South Central Calhoun is not in the top 2 of District 7, and IMO they are the favorite to win the district. It will be a great district again this year with SCC, Madrid, Ogden, and FDSE all having the potential to be pretty solid.

 

[PNation]

I really went back and forth between Madrid and SCC for that 2nd spot, I really think that St. Eds is still the class of the district though, but the gap will be a lot narrower.

 

[GoHawks2009]

Will St. Edmonds even have enough for a team next year? They graduated half their roster it seemed like. Manson won't be much better unfortunately but I think they'll at least be in better shape than the Gaels.

 

[Makeweight35]

St. Eds will be the "O'Tool Show" this year. They did lose a lot especially on the line, but he is a very good RB. That being said if teams are able to contain him I think St. Eds will struggle a little bit due to the lack of depth and not having many other weapons besides O'Tool...I think they will be around that 5-4/6-3 range probably fighting for the 3rd or 4th spot in the district.

 

[cyard31]

St. Eds will be the "O'Tool Show" this year. They did lose a lot especially on the line, but he is a very good RB. That being said if teams are able to contain him I think St. Eds will struggle a little bit due to the lack of depth and not having many other weapons besides O'Tool...I think they will be around that 5-4/6-3 range probably fighting for the 3rd or 4th spot in the district.

where did St Eds receiver end up going" did he play in college?

 

[Makeweight35]

where did St Eds receiver end up going" did he play in college?

I believe you're talking about Peed, the stud WR who they moved to Fullback for his senior year....I thought I heard that he is going to Grandview as a WR or DB.