Which Rankings Are More Accurate?

[UnionFootballFan]

Curious - Which rankings look most accurate, which look least accurate?

Source A
1-PCM
2-Algona
3-BHRV
4-West Marshall
5-Chariton
6-Benton Community
7-Spirit Lake
8-Waukon
9-Southeast Valley
10-Des Moines Christian
11-OA-BCIG
12-Union
13-Columbus
14-Greene
15-Red Oak

Source B
1-PCM
2-BHRV
3-Waukon
4-Union
5-Benton Community
6-Algona
7-Spirit Lake
8-Mt. Vernon
9-Cresco
10-West Marshall
11-Clear Lake
12-Greene
13-NFV
14-West Liberty
15-Monticello

Source C
1-PCM
2-Waukon
3-BHRV
4-Algnona
5-West Marshall
6-Des Moines Christian
7-Benton Community
8-Columbus
9-Union
10-Spirit Lake

 

[Charles86]

I’m gonna say B, but in the B source, I’d out West Marshall up a couple more spots. I do think Union will beat WM in week 9

 

[dtk913]

B

 

[PNation]

B other than having Mt. Vernon ranked, they are currently 2-4 and not going to the playoffs.

 

[Charles86]

What rankings are these from anyway? Mt. Vernon in the top 10??

 

[dtk913]

It depends if you are looking for the best teams in 2A or the teams that will make the playoffs. Those lists will not be the same.

 

[UnionFootballFan]

Source A = State's RPI Rankings
Source B = BCMoore
Source C = DSM Register Poll

IMO - The RPI rankings are way off. I've always been a fan of BCMoore and continue to be - I think those look most accurate.

Issues with RPI:
-Not enough emphasis on quality wins. By "quality", I mean the fashion in which you won (a multi-score victory vs. a single score victory does say something), as well as the proper emphasis on the strength of schedule played.
-The above concern is seen in several team specific rankings: Algona at #2 despite an extremely weak schedule, SE Valley rated below Spirit Lake after just beating them, Union ranked 6-spots lower than Benton Community after dominantly beating them, Waterloo Columbus ranked #13 despite several close games against very bad teams (very weak schedule), etc.

Obviously no system is perfect, but I think RPI is a step backwards from how teams earned spots in previous years. I would rather have the 17-pt differential back in place and focus on district games only rather than the RPI model. That's not to say the RPI model can't work, I would just want a better calculation (closer to what BCMoore has historically done).

 

[dtk913]

Here are a couple more things to think about. Crestwood, New Hampton and Clear Lake are all in the same district. If Crestwood or New Hampton loses a game it is unlikely either makes the playoffs unless there is a three way tie. because of ND loses. Crestwood's ND schedule consisted of 3 3A schools and New Hampton played 2. I think everyone will agree that they are both quality 2A teams and would be a very tough out in the playoffs.

Williamsburg played a very tough ND schedule and went 1-3. If they lose a district game they will be out. They are absolutely a playoff caliber team.

Mount Vernon played 4 3A schools in their ND, including Solon, West Delaware and Center Point. They came out of it 1-3 (1 of those loses was a forfeit and another lost on the final possession). They are in the same district as West Liberty, another team that played a tough ND schedule and went 1-3. Both are good teams. West Liberty won the District game and has the inside track to the playoffs while MV will most likely be on the outside.

A side note...Last Friday Mount Vernon played Tipton. Tipton was 4-1 and ranked #13 in the RPI. They went 3-1 in the ND with wins over 2 1A teams and an A team. Mount Vernon was ranked #46. Mount Vernon won 68-8. This weeks RPI has Tipton at #18 and MV at #41. See a problem?

 

[UnionFootballFan]

Here are a couple more things to think about. Crestwood, New Hampton and Clear Lake are all in the same district. If Crestwood or New Hampton loses a game it is unlikely either makes the playoffs unless there is a three way tie. because of ND loses. Crestwood's ND schedule consisted of 3 3A schools and New Hampton played 2. I think everyone will agree that they are both quality 2A teams and would be a very tough out in the playoffs.

Williamsburg played a very tough ND schedule and went 1-3. If they lose a district game they will be out. They are absolutely a playoff caliber team.

Mount Vernon played 4 3A schools in their ND, including Solon, West Delaware and Center Point. They came out of it 1-3 (1 of those loses was a forfeit and another lost on the final possession). They are in the same district as West Liberty, another team that played a tough ND schedule and went 1-3. Both are good teams. West Liberty won the District game and has the inside track to the playoffs while MV will most likely be on the outside.

A side note...Last Friday Mount Vernon played Tipton. Tipton was 4-1 and ranked #13 in the RPI. They went 3-1 in the ND with wins over 2 1A teams and an A team. Mount Vernon was ranked #46. Mount Vernon won 68-8. This weeks RPI has Tipton at #18 and MV at #41. See a problem?

Excellent points - completely agree.

 

[leeps]

Curious - Which rankings look most accurate, which look least accurate?

Source A
1-PCM
2-Algona
3-BHRV
4-West Marshall
5-Chariton
6-Benton Community
7-Spirit Lake
8-Waukon
9-Southeast Valley
10-Des Moines Christian
11-OA-BCIG
12-Union
13-Columbus
14-Greene
15-Red Oak

Source B
1-PCM
2-BHRV
3-Waukon
4-Union
5-Benton Community
6-Algona
7-Spirit Lake
8-Mt. Vernon
9-Cresco
10-West Marshall
11-Clear Lake
12-Greene
13-NFV
14-West Liberty
15-Monticello

Source C
1-PCM
2-Waukon
3-BHRV
4-Algnona
5-West Marshall
6-Des Moines Christian
7-Benton Community
8-Columbus
9-Union
10-Spirit Lake

B

 

[dtk913]

This week's 2A RPI still has playoff caliber teams like Clear Lake, Crestwood, Mount Vernon, West Liberty and Williamsburg on the outside looking in. The only way most of them get in is with a District Title. Clear Lake and Crestwood are in the same Distrtict, and so are MV and West Liberty, which will make it even harder to get the best teams in the playoffs. All of these teams played a quality ND schedule which is going to come back to bite them.

 

[RoundMound1]

I think there is no doubt that BC gets it right more so than the RPI or journalists. I think strength of schedule should definitely be factored into it, and I think the RPI tries to do that w/ opp. win %, however, what the RPI fails to take into consideration is the class of the teams and the actual strength or ability of those teams. A decent example would be saying that Iowa defeating an 11-1 UNI team would be the same as them defeating an 11-1 Wisconsin team. The IAHSAA's RPI would count those as the same, but we all know better. This can both be true based on class and also based on geographical location. There are a handful of examples in each class of teams that play same class or higher class teams, but still have inflated records because the level of competition in their general area across classes is low (I'm looking at you Algona, Greene, and Chariton).

I will disagree about "quality of win" and feel that the score should not be taken into consideration. There are so many factors, especially at the HS level, that can cause scores to fluctuate including weather, injury and coaching philosophy. If a stud QB or RB gets hurt and is out for a game or two a good team can still win, but their wins may not look as strong. You also have to factor different styles. A team with a great defense that likes to play ball control offense shouldn't be penalized because they don't go no-huddle and pour on points against inferior teams. Lastly, you would have to factor in coaching philosophy. Some coaches want to beat down inferior teams with their starters, while other like to substitute earlier. A team shouldn't be penalized because a computer said they should've won by 55 and they only won by 35.

All-in-all, I think most coaches came into this process with little real concept of the implications of the RPI and their effect on playoff possibilities. Sadly, many coaches will look at how the RPI has played out and come to the conclusion that the best way to be in the playoff hunt is to inflate your own W-L record and therefore will try to schedule cupcakes for their N-D games. This could lead to more inflated teams and less competitive games. Now, the IAHSAA would have some control over that, but the fact that an overlying body has control over all teams' schedule could both be a blessing (if they keep N-D games competitive across the board) or a curse (if they "give" some teams cake schedules while having others go through he!!).

 

[privateer13]

+1
No computer program or human ranking can factor all the details. Injuries, weather, play style, etc.... can't be factored or a have a metric to value it. No matter the system a good team will be on the outside. Unless you're willing to let bad teams in you can't guarantee all quality teams make it in.

 

[dtk913]

+1
No computer program or human ranking can factor all the details. Injuries, weather, play style, etc.... can't be factored or a have a metric to value it. No matter the system a good team will be on the outside. Unless you're willing to let bad teams in you can't guarantee all quality teams make it in.

I would rather have 5 "bad" teams in than leave 1 deserving team out.

 

[RoundMound1]

If you factor in opponent RPI rank for their respective class (basically putting greater emphasis on scheduling quality opponents) you come up with the following rankings:

1. PCM
2. BH/RV
3. Kuemper
4. Waukon
5. SE Valley
6. Benton
7. Cresco
8. Chariton
9. Union
10. Spirit Lake
11. Red Oak
12. Monticello
13. West Marshall
14. N. Fayette
15. OA-BCIG
16. DM Christian
17. Clear Lake
18. Williamsburg
19. Algona
20. West Liberty

There are a few major differences compared to the other three polls. They are:

Algona
I get it, they're 7-0, but they haven't played a team with a winning record. They have the next two weeks to prove my rankings (and me) wrong against Spirit Lake and SE Valley.

Greene
No, I didn't forget about them. Like Algona, their schedule is pathetic with their only opponent with a winning record being Kuemper who gave them their only loss. Even with Kuemper factored in, they have the lowest RPI strength of schedule of all teams in the top 25.

Kuemper
A 4-3 team at #3? Foolish, you say and probably so, but every poll has its outlier in the top 10.

Scratch beneath the surface and you'll see that Kuemper has the toughest schedule so far (based on RPI rankings mind you), only played one team with a losing record and lost 2 one-score games to 3A opponents. Granted, I think their district is not very good, but if other polls are going to have Greene and OA-BCIG on them, then I think it's fair to have the real best team in District 9 on the list. Albeit too high...

 

[RoundMound1]

Let me also add that there are realistic chances for a 3-way tie in districts 2, 7, and 9. If any of these districts come to that, the higher RPI team would be the champion which figures to be Algona (D2), West Marshall (D7), and Greene (D9), all of which would have the easiest schedule of their respective district's contenders, once again solidifying the notion that it is way more important to have a good record than to schedule quality opponents.

 

[dtk913]

If you factor in opponent RPI rank for their respective class (basically putting greater emphasis on scheduling quality opponents) you come up with the following rankings:

1. PCM
2. BH/RV
3. Kuemper
4. Waukon
5. SE Valley
6. Benton
7. Cresco
8. Chariton
9. Union
10. Spirit Lake
11. Red Oak
12. Monticello
13. West Marshall
14. N. Fayette
15. OA-BCIG
16. DM Christian
17. Clear Lake
18. Williamsburg
19. Algona
20. West Liberty

There are a few major differences compared to the other three polls. They are:

Algona
I get it, they're 7-0, but they haven't played a team with a winning record. They have the next two weeks to prove my rankings (and me) wrong against Spirit Lake and SE Valley.

Greene
No, I didn't forget about them. Like Algona, their schedule is pathetic with their only opponent with a winning record being Kuemper who gave them their only loss. Even with Kuemper factored in, they have the lowest RPI strength of schedule of all teams in the top 25.

Kuemper
A 4-3 team at #3? Foolish, you say and probably so, but every poll has its outlier in the top 10.

Scratch beneath the surface and you'll see that Kuemper has the toughest schedule so far (based on RPI rankings mind you), only played one team with a losing record and lost 2 one-score games to 3A opponents. Granted, I think their district is not very good, but if other polls are going to have Greene and OA-BCIG on them, then I think it's fair to have the real best team in District 9 on the list. Albeit too high...

Take a look at Mount Vernon. They are #7 in BC Moore and could possibly finish 4-1 in their District. Their ND was 4 3A schools. They went 1-3 with one of those loses being a forfeit from a self-reported infraction of a player with too many quarters in one night.

 

[Kevin7216]

Some of you on here may not care but if you look at class A on BCMoore how is AHSTW number 1 with a schedule rank of 59 there off and def ranks are great but of course they are because they are obviously playing lesser teams so I’m not sure BCMoore is the best ranking system! Can anyone explain what I’m missing?

 

[UnionFootballFan]

Some of you on here may not care but if you look at class A on BCMoore how is AHSTW number 1 with a schedule rank of 59 there off and def ranks are great but of course they are because they are obviously playing lesser teams so I’m not sure BCMoore is the best ranking system! Can anyone explain what I’m missing?

BCM is more advanced. RPI looks simply at wins and losses while BCM looks at how you won. Two teams could play the same opponents and both be 9-0 - Team 1 may have won each of those games by one point while Team 2 won each of those games by 50-points. RPI considers both of those teams the same while BCM shows Team 2 as a stronger team.

You will never find a perfect system, but you will find that one approach is more accurate than others. Polls are biased by location and I like data as the driver, and BCM has proven for years that it is more accurate. I've ran pick'em polls for many seasons and pulled in BCM against other sources - BCM is consistently at or near the top.

 

[RoundMound1]

Some of you on here may not care but if you look at class A on BCMoore how is AHSTW number 1 with a schedule rank of 59 there off and def ranks are great but of course they are because they are obviously playing lesser teams so I’m not sure BCMoore is the best ranking system! Can anyone explain what I’m missing?

Not to speak for the man behind the BCM curtain, but the #1 O and D ranks ensure that they are destroying all of their opponents. Basically, the BCM rankings are based on how you perform compared to how you were supposed to perform, or against the spread if you will. If you look, the spreads given are roughly the difference in the teams' overall strength score.

For example, if BCM says that Team A is supposed to beat Team B by 14 points and Team A only wins by 3, BCM considers this a bad game for Team A and their overall strength score will drop some.

Let's say Team C is right behind Team A in the rankings and is favored by 24 against Team D. If Team C beats Team D by 50 that will be considered a very good win and Team C will get a significant boost in its overall strength score. Even though both Team A and Team C won, there's a good chance Team C jumps Team A even thought Team C beat up on a worse team.

Long story short, I think this is the flaw of BCM, too much emphasis on winning against the spread. The spreads are algorithmic, and as I said earlier, there are too many factors in HS football that lead to variance in scores. That said, I agree with UnionFF that every system will have flaws, but BCM is the best one that I've seen year-in-year-out. You will at times have a paper tiger near the top (maybe AHSTW this year?) but for the most part, it's pretty darn close.

 

[Kevin7216]

I think they are all flawed and I agree that is BCMoore’s flaw! What I can’t agree with is that what they rank teams by even matters let alone that it’s correct!