Week 7 - #8 Waukon vs. #4 Union

[UnionFootballFan]

We're getting to the exciting time of the season and have a huge match-up between #8 Waukon and #4 Union. Considering Waukon has already lost to Cascade, there is a lot on the line for both teams.

Waukon - With a win they set-up a potential three-way tie between them, Union, and Cascade for the D4 champions. With a loss they likely will find themselves finishing 3rd in the district, putting their playoff hopes up to point differential.

Union - With a win they set-up a likely D4 championship game against Cascade in Week 9. With a loss they can still create a three way tie for the D4 championship with a win against Cascade in Week 9, or they could drop to 3rd in the district with a loss to Cascade.

Interesting Game Notes/Stats:
*The game will be on a neutral field.
*Both teams are 5-1 against an almost identical SOS (Union #34 SOS, Waukon #35 SOS)
*Offensive Ranks: Union #6, Waukon #3
*Defensive Ranks: Union #6, Waukon #17
*Common Opponents:
-Union 41-6 over Beckman, Waukon 53-35 over Beckman
-Union 42-0 over Monticello, Waukon 51-27 over Monticello
-Union 48-7 over Columbus, Waukon 51-7 over Columbus

Obviously I have a slanted point of view, but my pick is Union. I think the difference is the strength of their defense.

Thoughts?

 

[mcdermott97]

We're getting to the exciting time of the season and have a huge match-up between #8 Waukon and #4 Union. Considering Waukon has already lost to Cascade, there is a lot on the line for both teams.

Waukon - With a win they set-up a potential three-way tie between them, Union, and Cascade for the D4 champions. With a loss they likely will find themselves finishing 3rd in the district, putting their playoff hopes up to point differential.

Union - With a win they set-up a likely D4 championship game against Cascade in Week 9. With a loss they can still create a three way tie for the D4 championship with a win against Cascade in Week 9, or they could drop to 3rd in the district with a loss to Cascade.

Interesting Game Notes/Stats:
*The game will be on a neutral field.
*Both teams are 5-1 against an almost identical SOS (Union #34 SOS, Waukon #35 SOS)
*Offensive Ranks: Union #6, Waukon #3
*Defensive Ranks: Union #6, Waukon #17
*Common Opponents:
-Union 41-6 over Beckman, Waukon 53-35 over Beckman
-Union 42-0 over Monticello, Waukon 51-27 over Monticello
-Union 48-7 over Columbus, Waukon 51-7 over Columbus

Obviously I have a slanted point of view, but my pick is Union. I think the difference is the strength of their defense.

Thoughts?

 

[mcdermott97]

If Union beats Waukon and Beckman Beats Cascade Does Beckman still have a shot at the wild card?

 

[Highmark2424]

If Union beats Waukon and Beckman Beats Cascade Does Beckman still have a shot at the wild card?

Completely depends on who wins Union/Waukon and if Cascade would then beat Union. Waukon would end up with 2 losses and Cascade/Union would end up with 1. Cascade would finish 1st over Union as they won head to head. Waukon beat Beckman so they (Beckman) would be 4 and not have a very good chance at getting a wildcard.

If Union beats Waukon and Cascade loses to Beckman and Union, Cascade, Beckman Waukon would be in a 3 way tie with each having 2 loses and each losing to one of the other making it come down to points for 2-3-4.

Basically nothing is set in stone yet and the district could finish a variety of ways. Overall I'd say Beckman's WC chances are fairly slim as I don't think many 2 loss teams with low point totals get one. Currently Beckman is negative 1.25 and has a couple of pretty tough games left with Cascade and Monticello. They have to win out pretty big in all three to have any chance at all. They would have to win all 3 remaining games by 17 and still would only finish a postive 6.57 in points.

Right now there are 9 teams with 3-1 records in 3rd or worse place in Class 2A.

https://www.iahsaa.org/secure/classstandings.php?year=2017&sport=fb&class=2A

 

[mcdermott97]

Completely depends on who wins Union/Waukon and if Cascade would then beat Union. Waukon would end up with 2 losses and Cascade/Union would end up with 1. Cascade would finish 1st over Union as they won head to head. Waukon beat Beckman so they (Beckman) would be 4 and not have a very good chance at getting a wildcard.

If Union beats Waukon and Cascade loses to Beckman and Union, Cascade, Beckman Waukon would be in a 3 way tie with each having 2 loses and each losing to one of the other making it come down to points for 2-3-4.

Basically nothing is set in stone yet and the district could finish a variety of ways. Overall I'd say Beckman's WC chances are fairly slim as I don't think many 2 loss teams with low point totals get one. Currently Beckman is negative 1.25 and has a couple of pretty tough games left with Cascade and Monticello. They have to win out pretty big in all three to have any chance at all. They would have to win all 3 remaining games by 17 and still would only finish a postive 6.57 in points.

Right now there are 9 teams with 3-1 records in 3rd or worse place in Class 2A.

https://www.iahsaa.org/secure/classstandings.php?year=2017&sport=fb&class=2A

We're getting to the exciting time of the season and have a huge match-up between #8 Waukon and #4 Union. Considering Waukon has already lost to Cascade, there is a lot on the line for both teams.

Waukon - With a win they set-up a potential three-way tie between them, Union, and Cascade for the D4 champions. With a loss they likely will find themselves finishing 3rd in the district, putting their playoff hopes up to point differential.

Union - With a win they set-up a likely D4 championship game against Cascade in Week 9. With a loss they can still create a three way tie for the D4 championship with a win against Cascade in Week 9, or they could drop to 3rd in the district with a loss to Cascade.

Interesting Game Notes/Stats:
*The game will be on a neutral field.
*Both teams are 5-1 against an almost identical SOS (Union #34 SOS, Waukon #35 SOS)
*Offensive Ranks: Union #6, Waukon #3
*Defensive Ranks: Union #6, Waukon #17
*Common Opponents:
-Union 41-6 over Beckman, Waukon 53-35 over Beckman
-Union 42-0 over Monticello, Waukon 51-27 over Monticello
-Union 48-7 over Columbus, Waukon 51-7 over Columbus

Obviously I have a slanted point of view, but my pick is Union. I think the difference is the strength of their defense.

Thoughts?

 

[mcdermott97]

But if Cascade has 2 loses and we have 2 losses we should be 3rd and cascade should be 4th because we beat them

 

[UnionFootballFan]

But if Cascade has 2 loses and we have 2 losses we should be 3rd and cascade should be 4th because we beat them

While mathematically possible, I don't see Beckman getting into the playoffs. I think Cascade will beat them by at least 2-scores, and their game with Monticello will be close (although I give the edge to Beckman).

Let's look at the current standings with points...
Union, La Porte City 4-0, 5-1, +17.00
Cascade, Western Dubuque 4-0, 6-0, +11.50
Waukon 3-1, 5-1, +11.50
Beckman Catholic, Dyersville 2-2, 3-3, -1.25
North Fayette Valley 1-3, 1-5, -2.50
Columbus Catholic, Waterloo 1-3, 1-5, -9.25
Monticello 1-3, 3-3, -10.75
Oelwein 0-4, 0-6, -16.25

Week 7 Games...
Beckman Catholic, Dyersville at Cascade, Western Dubuque
Columbus Catholic, Waterloo at North Fayette Valley
Oelwein at Monticello
Waukon at Union, La Porte City

Week 8 Games...
Cascade, Western Dubuque at Columbus Catholic, Waterloo
Monticello at Beckman Catholic, Dyersville
North Fayette Valley at Union, La Porte City
Oelwein at Waukon

Week 9 Games...
Beckman Catholic, Dyersville at Oelwein
Columbus Catholic, Waterloo at Monticello
North Fayette Valley at Waukon
Union, La Porte City at Cascade, Western Dubuque

Union - Currently in 1st...
I think they'll win out, but they have two very tough games (Waukon and Cascade) and a game they should win easily against NFL. Best case scenario they finish 7-0 in the district, worst case they could finish 5-2 in the district in what would likely be close losses (less of a point impact). My prediction is they finish 7-0 and finish in first.

Cascade - Currently in 2nd...
They've already got one tough win (against Waukon) out of the way. They have a game I think they'll win by 2+ scores against Beckman, then a tough game against Union. Best case scenario they finish 7-0 in the district, worst case scenario they finish 5-2. My predication is they finish 6-1 and finish in 2nd.

Waukon - Currently in 3rd...
They've already got a close loss to Cascade and this week face Union. Their other two games should be easy wins. Best case scenario they finish 6-1, worst case scenario they finish 5-2. My prediction is they finish 5-2 and finish in 3rd.

Beckman - Currently in 4th...
They've already got very lopsided losses to Waukon and Union. Considering Cascade beat Waukon, I just don't see Beckman sticking with Cascade. The only easy game remaining for Beckman is Oelwein, as Monticello will give Beckman all they can handle. Even if we venture out and predict them finishing 3-0, that takes them to 5-2, but with two lopsided losses. Ultimately Beckman would need to hope for a tie within the district and lopsided losses for the other 2-loss teams (Union, Cascade, or Waukon), which I just don't see happening. My prediction is they finish 2-1 (1-2 also likely), putting them at 4-3.

Final Standing Prediction...
Union, 7-0 *Playoff Qualifier
Cascade, 6-1 *Playoff Qualifier
Waukon, 5-2 *Playoff Qualifier
Beckman, 4-3
Monticello, 3-4
NFV, 2-5
Columbus, 1-6
Oelwein, 0-6

With that prediction made, I would also not be surprised to see Cascade or Waukon beat Union, or for Monticello to beat Beckman and have them switch spots in the standings. I just don't see enough happening to help Beckman with their slim odds.

 

[Iabeastmode]

I feel a 3 way tie coming in this district! Actually I’m kind of hoping for it. If teams start beating opponents by 14-17+ in this district it will allow a less worthy team to sneak in from another district as a wildcard.

 

[Highmark2424]

But if Cascade has 2 loses and we have 2 losses we should be 3rd and cascade should be 4th because we beat them

Don't matter in a 3 way tie if each beat one of the other. Then it comes down to points. That was the scenario I was referring to Cascade, Waukon and Beckman all finishing with 2 losses. Same happens if Waukon, Cascade and Union all end up with one loss. If each has a loss against the other it goes to points average.

Example. Beckman beats Cascade but lost to Waukon. Cascade beat Waukon but lost to Beckman. Waukon beats Beckman but lost to Cascade. It then goes to points as there is not a clear head to head to arrange them.

Two way tie head to head comes before points.

I have my concerns that a extremely good 1 loss team in 2A D4 missing the playoffs on point average.

 

[Iabeastmode]

Don't matter in a 3 way tie if each beat one of the other. Then it comes down to points. That was the scenario I was referring to Cascade, Waukon and Beckman all finishing with 2 losses. Same happens if Waukon, Cascade and Union all end up with one loss. If each has a loss against the other it goes to points average.

Example. Beckman beats Cascade but lost to Waukon. Cascade beat Waukon but lost to Beckman. Waukon beats Beckman but lost to Cascade. It then goes to points as there is not a clear head to head to arrange them.

Two way tie head to head comes before points.

I have my concerns that a extremely good 1 loss team in 2A D4 missing the playoffs on point average.

If there is a 3 way tie for first they all make it. Not possible for a 1 loss team in this district to not make it. If Waukon loses by 7 then that will drop them to a 7.8 point differential, which in my opinion will put them right on the bubble.

 

[ISUChip]

Not possible for a 1 loss team in this district to not make it.

Not possible for a 1 loss team in any district to not make it (unless there are more than 2 three-way ties for 1st). At 6-1, you're either in 1st alone (automatic bid) or in a tie for 1st (automatic bid).

It's also not possible for only two teams to be tied for 2nd at 6-1.

 

[Highmark2424]

If there is a 3 way tie for first they all make it. Not possible for a 1 loss team in this district to not make it. If Waukon loses by 7 then that will drop them to a 7.8 point differential, which in my opinion will put them right on the bubble.

Like ISUChip said if more than 2 districts end up with 3 one loss teams then at least 1 with 1 loss is not making the playoffs. There are only 2 wildcards. Right now There are 9 teams in 3rd or worse with 3-1 records and the worst point total is 4.75. I'm not saying its happening this year but its possible for all 7 districts to have 3 6-1 teams with no clear head to head winner. If that is the case 5 teams with 1 loss do not make the playoffs.

By place I'm talking about w/l's alone.

2017 CLASS 2A STANDINGS REPORT
(Last Updated: Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 9:09am CDT)
DISTRICT 1
District Overall Point
Diff
Avg
Win Loss Tie Win Loss Tie
Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley 4 0 0 5 1 0 17.00
Sioux Center 4 0 0 6 0 0 9.00
Sheldon 3 1 0 5 1 0 5.75
Central Lyon/George-Little Rock 2 2 0 2 4 0 2.25
MOC-Floyd Valley 2 2 0 2 4 0 1.75
Cherokee, Washington 1 3 0 1 5 0 -9.25
Pocahontas Area/L-M 0 4 0 0 6 0 -12.75
Estherville Lincoln Central 0 4 0 1 5 0 -13.75
DISTRICT 2
District Overall Point
Diff
Avg
Win Loss Tie Win Loss Tie
Clear Lake 4 0 0 5 1 0 15.25
Garner-Hayfield-Ventura 3 1 0 4 2 0 8.00
New Hampton 3 1 0 4 2 0 8.00
Crestwood, Cresco 3 1 0 3 3 0 6.75
Osage 3 1 0 3 3 0 3.50
Forest City 0 4 0 0 6 0 -13.50
Clarion-Goldfield-Dows/CAL 0 4 0 0 6 0 -14.00
Hampton-Dumont 0 4 0 0 6 0 -14.00
DISTRICT 3
District Overall Point
Diff
Avg
Win Loss Tie Win Loss Tie
Roland-Story, Story City 2 1 0 3 3 0 9.00
Aplington-Parkersburg 3 1 0 6 1 0 8.75
Dike-New Hartford 3 1 0 4 3 0 8.50
East Marshall, LeGrand 2 1 0 4 2 0 1.00
West Marshall, State Center 1 2 0 3 3 0 -5.00
Saydel 1 2 0 4 2 0 -7.33
South Hardin 0 4 0 1 6 0 -15.50
DISTRICT 4
District Overall Point
Diff
Avg
Win Loss Tie Win Loss Tie
Union, La Porte City 4 0 0 5 1 0 17.00
Cascade, Western Dubuque 4 0 0 6 0 0 11.50
Waukon 3 1 0 5 1 0 11.50
Beckman Catholic, Dyersville 2 2 0 3 3 0 -1.25
North Fayette Valley 1 3 0 1 5 0 -2.50
Columbus Catholic, Waterloo 1 3 0 1 5 0 -9.25
Monticello 1 3 0 3 3 0 -10.75
Oelwein 0 4 0 0 6 0 -16.25
DISTRICT 5
District Overall Point
Diff
Avg
Win Loss Tie Win Loss Tie
Mount Vernon 4 0 0 5 1 0 17.00
Williamsburg 4 0 0 6 0 0 17.00
West Liberty 3 1 0 4 2 0 8.75
Mediapolis 2 2 0 3 3 0 -1.50
Mid-Prairie, Wellman 1 3 0 2 4 0 -8.50
Anamosa 1 3 0 2 4 0 -11.00
Camanche 1 3 0 1 5 0 -12.25
Northeast, Goose Lake 0 4 0 1 5 0 -9.50
DISTRICT 6
District Overall Point
Diff
Avg
Win Loss Tie Win Loss Tie
PCM, Monroe 4 0 0 5 1 0 17.00
Centerville 3 1 0 3 3 0 6.75
Central Lee, Donnellson 3 1 0 4 2 0 4.75
Eddyville-Blakesburg-Fremont 2 2 0 3 4 0 4.00
Albia 2 2 0 2 5 0 -4.00
Chariton 1 3 0 2 4 0 -4.75
Davis County, Bloomfield 1 3 0 1 5 0 -6.75
Clarke, Osceola 0 4 0 0 6 0 -17.00
DISTRICT 7
District Overall Point
Diff
Avg
Win Loss Tie Win Loss Tie
South Central Calhoun 4 0 0 5 1 0 15.25
East Sac County 4 0 0 4 2 0 13.00
Kuemper Catholic, Carroll 3 1 0 4 2 0 10.25
Southeast Valley 2 2 0 2 4 0 -1.25
Clarinda 2 2 0 2 4 0 -5.00
Red Oak 1 3 0 1 5 0 -3.75
Underwood 0 4 0 1 5 0 -14.00
Shenandoah 0 4 0 0 6 0 -14.50

 

[PNation]

It is possible for a one district loss team to miss the playoffs, but it would take 3 districts having a 3 way tie to do that.

 

[WSH0455]

I hate to think that weather is going to play a factor into who wins this game. I was really wishing it would have been a clear/dry night. Granted it is on field turf so they dont have to worry about mud but I think the rain will make it hard to get the right footing. Lets hope for a great and CLEAN game with no injuries!

 

[paxregis]

I feel a 3 way tie coming in this district! Actually I’m kind of hoping for it. If teams start beating opponents by 14-17+ in this district it will allow a less worthy team to sneak in from another district as a wildcard.

Unless two other districts also have a three-way tie for first, all three teams would make the playoffs automatically